Battle for the U.S. Senate 2002: My Predictions

Vanity | Today | ambrose

[ambrose]

Battle for the U.S. Senate 2002: My Predictions

Okay, I have decided to put on my pundit hat and set forth my predictions for the U.S. Senate races. I can assure you that all of my picks are correct as of today. Of course, the campaign is not yet over and my picks may change prior to election day.

[ambrose]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) is SAFE

Alaska: Ted Stevens {R} will have to be caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy to lose in Alaska. He's safe.

Arkansas:Tim Hutchinson (R) won in 1996 by campaigning as a strong cultural conservative. Once elected, he dumped his wife of 21 years for a young little hotty staffer. His opponent, Mark Pryor is a Clinton wannabe pretending that he's moderate. Huckabee will lose by two percent.

Colorado: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) and challenger Strickland have been locked up neck and neck at about 40% each in a very negative campaign. Normally, an incumbent at 40% is toast because the undecideds break for the challenger. But here, the undecideds have been undecided for so long, they are likely to simply skip this race. That, and Bill Owens' (R) landslide win will put Allard in for another term.

Delaware: Sen. Joe Biden (D) is safe.

Georgia: Sen. Max Cleland (D) barely won in 1996, and his challenger, Saxby Chambliss (R) has been closing strong. Saxby has the issues, and Cleland has a lot of personal popularity. Saxby will win by 1 percent.

Idaho:Sen. Larry Craig (R) is safe.

Illinois:Sen. Durbin (D) is safe.

Iowa:Sen. Tom Harkin (D) has high negatives and a leftist voting record. But he brings home the bacon for the Iowa farmers, which will keep him in office for at least another six years.

Kansas:Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is safe.

Kentucky:Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is safe.

Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will narrowly avoid a runoff.

Maine: Susan Collins (R) is safe.

Massachusetts: John Kerry (D) doesn't have a Republican opponent. It wouldn't matter even if he did.

Michigan: Michigan's love affair with Sen. Carl Levin (D) will continue for another six years

Minnesota: The "memorial service" backfired and this gives Coleman a chance. But the service also energized the Rats, so expect the turnout to be very high. Coleman wins in a nailbiter, and his margin of victory will be less than the absentee ballots that were cast prior to Wellstone's death. Democrats will go to court to challenge the results and they will lose.

Mississippi:Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is Senator-for-life

Missouri: The sympathy factor is finished and so is Sen. Carnahan (D). Talent by 2 percent.

Montana: Sen. Max Baucus (D) represents a state that Bush won by nearly 30% .. so what do the Republicans do? They run an (allegedly) gay barber as Baucus' opponent. The Stupid Party strikes again. Baucus is safe.

Nebraska: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) is in for another term. I think the Democrats nominated a truck driver as Hagel's opponent.

New Hampshire: Sununu's inept campaign is bad enough... but the bitter Smith supports are going to kill him. Shaheen by 1 percent.

New Jersey:New Jersey voters are well known for fooling the pollsters. Forrester will do a lot better than expected. Unfortunately, coming close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Lautenberg by 2 percent.

New Mexico:Sen. Pete Domenici (R) was so upset by Paul Wellstone's death that he has stopped campaigning completely. It won't make a difference. He's safe for another term.

North Carolina:A massive black turnout will give Elizabeth Dole a good scare on election night, but she'll still narrowly pull out the win.

Oklahoma:Sen. Inhofe's (R) opponent is former governor David Walters. David Walters is best known for a scandal in which he was indicted on eight felonies, but plead guilty to a misdemeanor campaign finance violation as part of a plea bargain. Inhofe is safe.

Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) seems to have adopted the strategy used by southern and rural Democrats. He votes conservative in Washington but campaigns as a moderate-liberal at home. He's safe.

Rhode Island: Sen. Jack Reed (D) has been in the Senate for six years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. Rhode Island voters don't care. He's safe.

South Carolina: The Democrat whisper campaign isn't working. Lindsey Graham (R) in a cakewalk.

South Dakota: The prarie state voters elect socialists to Congress to bring home the bacon, and this year will be no different. Sen. Johnson (D) will be narrowly re-elected.

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) wins in a cakewalk.

Texas: This isn't a competitive race and it never was either. Cornyn (R) wins.

Virginia: John Warner is unopposed.

West Virginia: Sen. Rockefeller (D) in a cakewalk.

Wyoming: Sen. Enzi (R) is safe.

[ambrose]

So if you total everything up, the Republicans will pick up one seat.

[AntiGuv]

Alaska: Ted Stevens {R} will have to be caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy to lose in Alaska. He's safe.

Hmmm. I dunno 'bout that. He'd proberly still win - at least this go 'round. ;-)

[ambrose]

Ping.

[ambrose]

Ping

[KQQL]

Huckbee will win, Hutch will probably lose.

[KQQL]

As of today:

SD/NH: Keep hope alive. ( GOP is behind by 2-3% )
I don't have any hope in AR.
MN: The debate will determine the outcome.
GA : As of today ......Cleland wins ......by 3%
LA : LA will have a RUnOFF..she gets 48%
MO: Talent will win by 4-5%.
CO: Allard will snick in.
GOP holds in NC,SC,TN and TX

[no dems]

You're wrong on South Dakota my friend.

[KQQL]

why do you that to ambrose

[The Raven]

I don't know if I counted right but I think you have it 18R and 14R (4 seat gain for R)??? Correct?

[KQQL]

Senate: GOP will be lucky to get a 1 seat gain as of today.(

House: GOP will likley win 3-5 seats/

[crz]

Conservatives (GOP) by 4 in the next senate. Lots of shock and disgust over the Wellstone thing which will bring a early Christmas present to GW Bush and us conservatives.

[matrix]

Wow! This is about as "VANITY" as it gets! What, pray, makes you an expert?

[The Raven]

I was roaming the internet's cache of senate predicitions and only found one with a GOP gain (a momentary gain as chaffe switches parties to keep Tom in power)

So we had the Senate (NJ and MN) before the power brokers took over.

Judging by the Dems self confidence and lack of panic on on the liberal news - I'm beginning to think the Dems are now thinking - maybe we can beat Alexander (TN) and Dole.

Maybe Pataki and Bush, as well.

This is depressing.

[BullDog108]

What, pray, makes you an expert?

He didn't claim to be an expert, just a pundit.

And who died and made you Vanity Police?

[dhfnc]

So if you total everything up, the Republicans will pick up one seat.

I agree -

It will be close, but I think the Republicans will pull it off in the end.

I wonder, how many dead dems will vote in this election?

I know in NC that there were problems in 2000. Bus loads were brought in at closing time. Most of these people couldn't even pronounce their names or street address, but they got to vote.

I also wonder how many recounts are going to be requested? You know, the whole FLA thing all over again.

[be-baw]

ambrose, please remove me from your ping list...thanks

[GeekDejure]

"cakewalk" . . . "cakewalk" . . . "cakewalk" . . .

Hope you're happy . . . cuz now I gotta get some CAKE . . . just don't accuse me of bein' a Cake Soaker . . . or was that Coke Sacker . . . um. . . Cork Socker? Sheeesh. . . nevermind, just pass me the cake and vote Republican !!!

[scooby321]

Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will narrowly avoid a runoff.

she only has 44%

[The Wizard]

I say 52 47 GOP, and 1 lousy tratior who's last years will be void of all duties

[matrix]

Webster's says a "pundit" is "a learned person," or " a person who professes to have great learning; actual or self-posessed authority."

That's someone who fancies himself an expert!

Freepers constantly call each other on errors, pomposity. or false professions of insights. It's part of FR. Get over it!

[Kevin Curry]

1 lousy tratior who's last years will be void of all duties

That would be sweet. Stripped of all power and totally disgraced.

He coulda been a contendah.

Now he's branded as a spineless traitor for the rest of his days.

[Kevin Curry]

Did you even read the predictions? They certainly are no worse than what I've been reading in the media.

[frossca]

Delaware: Sen. Joe Biden (D) is safe.

You just don't know how depressing and embarassing that is...

[BullDog108]

LOL! Sounds like you're the one who needs to get over it. I wasn't the one with loud bold complaints.

[BullDog108]

He's too busy nitpicking to have read the predictions. And I agree that they are better than most of what I've read in the lamestream press which is reported here on FR.

[Savage Beast]

I hope you're right, Am.

"Saxby will win by 1 percent."

And God will surely have shed His grace on America yet again!

[ppaul]

Tuesday Night Fright

[ppaul]

Wow! This is about as "VANITY" as it gets! What, pray, makes you an expert?

Pray tell, what makes the clowns on CNN, NBC, CBS, FOX, ABC et al, "experts"?

[Savage Beast]

The Democrats are the Roman Mob. They'll do anything for power--to get in power, to stay in power.

Pray that the Fools out there whose intentions are good (and there are millions of them) wise up before it's too late.

AND GET OUT THE REPUBLICAN VOTE!

[calenel]

I think you are wrong about NH. The race polls tight, but the base is motivated and pissed. The Smith write-in campaign is crumbling due to Smith finally denouncing it and several other factors. The only thing we have to worry about is Shaheen bussing in 'surplus' Massachusetts voters because we have same day registration. We have a number of volunteer poll-watchers out there.

[matrix]

Pray tell, what makes the clowns on CNN, NBC, CBS, FOX, ABC et al, "experts"?

Excellent point!

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you for sharing your views! I'm hoping for more than just one pickup.

[MHT]

Hutchinson or Huckabee will lost by 1%?

[dhfnc]

They'll do anything for power--to get in power, to stay in power.

I just hope the American people catch on to this before it's too late.

[Tuco-bad]

The political pundits don't know what they are talking about!

In the 2000 election, everyone said the Reps would maintain control of the Senate where they had a 55-45 majority.

What happened? - The Reps lost 5 senate seats and control of the senate to the shock of all the "talking heads".

[ambrose]

What happened? - The Reps lost 5 senate seats and control of the senate to the shock of all the "talking heads".

Even more shocking was that Bush won the presidency without carrying California. Chew on that.

[copycat]

How about Missouri?

[copycat]

Oops, found it.

[2nd Amendment]

I think your analysis makes more sense

[ambrose]

Hutchinson or Huckabee will lost by 1%?

Ooops, typo. Hutchinson.

By all indications, Huckabee is pulling away in the polls after a brief scare.

[ambrose]

Did you even read the predictions? They certainly are no worse than what I've been reading in the media.

Thanks. Most of the "wise" pundits we see on TV have a HORRIBLE track record in predicting election results!

[jla]

The GOP will take S. Dakota & New Hamp.
Admittedly, Jay Wolfe has an uphill battle vs. Rockefeller. If Mr. Wolfe doesn't win I don't think this will be the last we'll of this bona fide Reagan-Conservative.

[Tuco-bad]

Even more shocking was that Bush won the presidency without carrying California. Chew on that.

You mean: Even more shocking was that Bush was SELECTED president without carrying California. Chew on that.

[longtermmemmory]

What bothers me is CNN constantly predicting low voter turnout. What are they trying to pull. EVERY person I know will be voting. Even those who are only mildly conservative or non-democrat are adamant about voting to wipe out the last of the clintonistas.

The only fear we have in florida are the Unlicensed lawyers sent by the DNC and the NAACP geting felons to vote.

In Miami Dade, the Mayor(?) of the county said as much as 20% of the votes will have been cast in early balloting. In Broward the lines are extending out of the building (and its a big building and a looong hall) for ealy voting. Palm beach sent the butler.

[longtermmemmory]

remember the decision was 7 to 2.

After a year by using algore standard bush won and by four different standards used by the media bush won.

Let us not also forget about the two timezones in florida this time. By the DNC estimates the early call for FL cost bush 8000 votes.

Democratic sleaze gave us the toricelli quiter and the Mondale rally memorial.

[longtermmemmory]

Have there been exit polls on the early voting? Florida? There must be a fraud factor the the Dems to be confident.

[dhfnc]

I agree!

CNN, along with NBC, ABC, and CBS, will try everything they can to keep Dems in control of the Senate.

Same here, every person I know is going to vote and vote against the dems.

But we have some stuff going on in NC that really bother me, as you do in FLA. In 2000, Bush should have walked away with it - and NC wasn't called for him as early as I had expected. A lot of rumors about what happened.

Dems will do anything to win - that is what scares me! And what makes me mad - they get away with it most of the time.

[Tuco-bad]

remember the decision was 7 to 2.

I was referring to Empress Harris who SELECTED Bush as president.

[Republican Wildcat]

The Secretary of State has no such power. You lose. Again.