Saddam, Arafat 'gone in a year'
By Abraham Rabinovich
09nov02
MIDDLE East powerbrokers Saddam Hussein and Yasser Arafat will depart the international stage in the next 12 months, according to Ephraim Levy, the recently retired head of Mossad, the Israeli secret service.
In interviews granted to Israeli newspapers yesterday, Mr Levy said the US would not be deterred by international pressure from dealing with the Iraqi leader.
"They will press home the confrontation until the end," he predicted. "And then there will really be a new Middle East."
He also said Palestinian leader Mr Arafat would disappear from the stage "one way or another" in the coming year.
"The year 2003 will be the most fateful for Israel since its establishment (in 1948)," he said. "It will bring rare opportunities and rare dangers."
Iran constituted a serious threat to Israel, but there could be a regime change there too in the next two or three years, he said.
Mr Levy, 68, retired two weeks ago after 41 years with Mossad, the past five as its head. He immediately assumed a new task as head of Israel's National Security Council at the request of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Mr Levy assessed the chances of Osama bin Laden being alive as 50-50. He gave high marks to al-Qa'ida's professionalism as a terrorist network.
"They were able to blow up two American embassies in Africa simultaneously, they demonstrated a high measure of professional ability, they are an efficient and dangerous organisation."
The organisation's attacks on the US on September 11 last year marked the opening of the "third world war", he said.
"We're just at the beginning. I believe this war will last longer than the two others."
A positive result of the Palestinian intifada, according to Mr Levy, is that Arab countries no longer blindly support the Palestinians as they have in the past.
"They have come to the conclusion that they are in no way willing to leave their own future or their relations with other countries, including Israel, hostage to one man (Arafat) or one movement," he said.
"They understand that they can be harmed by continuation of the Palestinians' policy."
Mr Levy cited the case of the Palestinian militants in Bethlehem who took refuge from Israeli troops earlier this year in the Church of the Nativity.
The Saudis took a leading role in forcing Mr Arafat to accept the exile of the militants to Europe to bring the episode to an end, he said.
"This is something very deep in the Saudis consciousness today, not to let the Palestinians determine the future of the region."
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