Posted on 11/10/2002 1:41:35 PM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
WASHINGTON (CNN) --White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said Sunday that the United States can act unilaterally should Iraq be found to have violated the resolution passed last week by the U.N. Security Council.
"The U.N. can meet and discuss, but we don't need their permission" before taking military action, Card told NBC's "Meet the Press."
In a vote Friday, the Security Council passed unanimously a resolution to send inspectors back to Iraq to ensure the country has no weapons of mass destruction.
In a related development, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ordered an emergency session of Iraq's parliament as the days tick down to Friday's deadline to comply with the U.N. disarmament resolution. Arab foreign ministers, meeting in Cairo, Egypt, said they welcomed the resolution. (Full story)
The burden is on Saddam to comply with the inspectors or face "serious consequences," Card said.
"He is in the position now where he has to say, 'Yes, yes, yes, yes' -- no noes."
Should Saddam fail to comply, "the U.S. and our allies are prepared to act," Card said.
Card said President Bush is not looking for an excuse to go to war, but "if we have to go to war, we will."
Either way, Saddam's government is not likely to survive the disarmament, Card said. "I think regime change will be the result of disarmament, and regime change may have to be the means of disarmament," he added.
Should chief weapons inspector Hans Blix complain of the Iraqis' noncompliance, the Security Council would convene immediately to consider what should be done, Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday.
But if the council is unable to agree on a second resolution authorizing the use of force, the United States would not be restrained in its response, Powell told CNN's "Late Edition With Wolf Blitzer."
"I can assure you that, if he doesn't comply this time, we'll ask the U.N. to give authorization for all necessary means, and if the U.N. is not willing to do that, the United States, with like-minded nations, will go and disarm him forcefully," Powell said.
Card's and Powell's comments Sunday were just the latest in a series of developments that indicate the United States and its allies are ready to act against Iraq.
This weekend, Bush administration officials said that the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of war if Saddam refuses to disarm. Bush has not approved a final war plan, but several scenarios are under consideration, officials said.
One plan involves what Pentagon officials and military analysts call a 21st-century blitzkrieg -- referring to the surprise attacks involving aircraft and fast-moving armor that Germany used at the beginning of World War II.
Under that strategy, sources said, the United States and its allies would launch a ferocious opening air assault involving hundreds, or possibly thousands, of all-weather, satellite-guided bombs and cruise missiles combined with covert missions and psychological operations.
The goal, the sources said, would be to demoralize Saddam's generals and discourage them from following orders to unleash chemical or biological weapons.
Officials are concerned that the Iraqi president could order the use of chemical or biological weapons if he feels that his regime is threatened.
Analysts said the current plan targets the "centers of gravity" that keep him in power -- his weapons of mass destruction, the Republican Guard and his presidential palaces.
Officials estimate that invading Iraq would involve 80,000 to 250,000 U.S. troops, which will have to come from the United States and bases in Europe.
There are currently about 27,000 U.S. troops in the region.
Pentagon sources said it was unlikely that the necessary troops and their equipment could be moved into position before February. This time frame would give U.S. assembly lines more time to replenish the military stocks of highly accurate J-DAM 2,000-pound bombs that have been effective in the war in Afghanistan.
CNN Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre contributed to this report.
By Julian B
Washington
Richard Norton-Taylor
November 10 2002
Even as the UN weapons inspectors pack their bags for a daunting trip to Iraq later this month, the Pentagon is steadily building up its forces in the region and is expected to be ready for battle by as early as next month, military analysts said on Friday.
The Bush administration is deeply sceptical of the inspectors' chances of disarming Saddam Hussein's regime and is convinced that a conflict is almost inevitable. The Pentagon wants to be in a position to strike quickly if a crisis over inspections is reached, and would prefer that moment of truth to come on its timetable - when it has its troops and equipment in place and before the cool winter months are over.
In contrast to the Bush administration, the British Government has been extremely wary of being accused of sabre-rattling. Military commanders have been increasingly frustrated at the failure of their political masters to give the go-ahead to a British force because of their reluctance to be seen as "interfering" in the diplomatic process.
However, Britain is poised to announce the mobilisation of thousands of troops and reservists, probably to coincide with the seven-day deadline for Baghdad to declare its intention to comply with the UN resolution. "We will have to put our money where our mouth is," a British defence official said.
The speed with which the US could go into battle would depend on the size of the force the Pentagon wanted to use. A light force could go into battle by early December, according to Patrick Garrett, a military analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington thinktank.
"If it's going to be a force of 130,000, that has been talked about, I would be looking at some time in mid-December," Mr Garrett said.
Colin Robinson, an analyst at the Centre for Defence Information in Washington, believes a conflict is more likely after the New Year, partly for political reasons. "We believe it's going to start in January or February," he said "The inspection process has to be given time to play out, and it's the best time of year."
Mr Robinson also pointed out that by early January, the US will have gathered a formidable armada in the seas around Iraq.
General Tommy Franks, the head of the US central command, is due to arrive in Qatar at the end of this month with 600 of his senior staff officers, ostensibly for a week-long exercise, but Pentagon officials say it is quite likely a working command post will be left in place after the war games are over.
The headquarters of two of the army and marine units likely to play a leading role in any Iraqi conflict have been ordered from their bases in the US and Germany to Kuwait, where there are already more than 10,000 troops. The total number of US troops in the Gulf region is thought to be as high as 50,000. Huge amounts equipment from stockpiles in the US and Germany are bound for the Gulf to add to the supplies already in the region.
B1 heavy bombers have been sighted in Oman, and preparations are being made to deploy B2s, the batwing stealth bombers most likely to strike the first blow in any conflict.
The number of RAF aircraft in the region may be tripled, and British military commanders have already joined their US counterparts in Qatar.
Mr Robinson said the other "flashing light" was the order last month for the transfer of the US army's German-based 5th corps headquarters to Kuwait.
Navy cargo ships have taken to sea to transport armour and other equipment, reportedly including mobile bridges, to Gulf bases.
"If you really want an indicator they are planning an invasion, it's bridging equipment because you need it to cross the Tigris and Euphrates," Mr Garrett said. "And now they're shipping it. That's pretty clear."
- Guardian
This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/11/09/1036308527668.html
I thought this was interesting from the CNN piece:
This time frame would give U.S. assembly lines more time to replenish the military stocks of highly accurate J-DAM 2,000-pound bombs that have been effective in the war in Afghanistan.
No doubt J-DAM bombs are in full production, but the inventory is already substantial IMO. The Iraq "situation" was antcipated in the earliest stages of the Afghan attack.
This time frame would give U.S. assembly lines more time to replenish the military stocks of highly accurate J-DAM 2,000-pound bombs that have been effective in the war in Afghanistan.
Its called diplomacy. If we go into Iraq now, it will be with complete international backing and not like America is some kind of imperialistic monster.
If you don't understand the value of a diplomatic approach after reading that, you never will.
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