Unless our world looks very different 20-24 months from now, having Dubya at the top of the ticket will be a powerful boost to the Republicans all the way down the ticket in both states. Not only the U.S. Senate races in the two states, but the NC Governor's race, and the State House and State Senate races in both states. The GOP already controls the SC Senate and House, and the NC House, and is within striking distance in the NC Senate.
The vicious circle down here in the South has been broken -- the one that allowed Dems to continue to win down-ballot contests even while the GOP mopped up at the Presidential level. Until the last couple of elections, a lot of conservatives persisted in voting Democrat at the State and local levels because the Dems were likely to win, and possess the influence. And of course, the Dems kept winning because people voted for them. That sounds ludicrously obvious, but think about it. Once the GOP is perceived to have a legitimate chance to become the majority party in, say, a State legislature anywhere in the South, there is a strong momentum toward them.
But as far as the U.S. Senate races in NC and SC are concerned: I think Congressman Richard Burr of Winston-Salem will take out Edwards, who is only making Presidential noises to keep his name in front of NC voters. And Congressman Jim DeMint of Greenville will take out Senator Foghorn Leghorn, or scare him into retirement.
Things are lookin' good down here.
The question is: Who will head up the Democrats' ticket? Anyone inspiring on the horizon? Gore? Edwards? Kerry? Hillary??? With the recent losses in 2002, Edwards is an increasingly strong possibility -- he's from the South (the Dems have to stop the bleeding there and relatively unknown. Gore already has high negatives (not to mention Hillary) and Kerry has too long a track record to be portrayed as anything but an über-liberal.
The last time we were in a situation like this was for the 1992 election. The Democrat rising stars didn't want to go against the (then) popular President GHW Bush, so they got the relatively unknown but long-serving Gov. Clinton to run. With Perot added to the mix, the fix was in and the 2-against-1 campaign damaged 41 irreparably.
So, is there a long-serving Democrat governor out there who might run in 2004? Or a (perceived) right-leaning spoiler? Otherwise, it'll be a rout, up and down the ticket.