Why November 2004 looks great

Enter Stage Right ^ | November 18, 2002 | Bruce Walker

[PBRSTREETGANG]

And my point is, in 1991 the elections were still a long way off, and Bush I looked invincible. Now we're in 2002, with the elections a long way off, and Bush II looks nearly invincible. We have no idea what significant variables will come into play over the next 12-24 months.

I agree. There seems to be a little too much "chicken counting" going on here.

[ConservativeDude]

"We have no idea what significant variables will come into play over the next 12-24 months."

This is totally fair. Caution is advised!

[steve-b]

I think Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are much stronger candidates for Bush in '04 than Vermont.

Pennsylvania is out of play unless there's a serious cleanup of Philadephia-Pittsburgh vote fraud. If that happens, the GOP has a decent chance, unless they stupidly fail to press their advantage on the gun rights issue (Dem party leaders know that gun control is a loser for them, and will run from the issue like scalded-ass dogs if pressed).

[IMRight]

But doesn't this sound hauntingly familiar of early '91?

Yes and no. Bush 41 did not have a Republican House or Senate, so he was constantly faced with signing bills that his base would dislike or vetoing bills loaded with little "gotcha" clauses ("OMG he's going to veto a school lunch program???). Bush 43 should face no similar hurdles.

Bush 41 also took a solid economy that had a very reasonable correction near the end of his term. Twelve straight years of hgh growth is unlikely for any economy, and of course Bush was blamed for it (though Congress is always where the credit/blame should be placed IMHO). Bush 43 is likely to be in the opposite situation. Will the economy be weak for five straight years? If so, he may not deserve to win, but it's far more likely that things will look mighty rosy in 12-18 months. Just in time.

And Clinton had few legitimate contenders that year. When you had to anounce your candidacy Bush was at 90%+. Nobody but a suicidal freak would chose to run against him. A freak, or a candidate who just wanted his hat in the ring for four years later. Right now it looks like every legitimate contender for the throne is in the race... adn they're going to chew each other up.

[The Old Hoosier]

That's been in the news as a strong possibility. Perdue appears likely to find enough dems in the House who will work with him, and even the AJC is calling for total redistricting on the state and federal level.

[aristeides]

Was it a "bring home the bacon" kind of thing?

That's exactly what it was. A SD majority leader, plus Johnson as a majority member of the Appropriations Committee, meant pork for SD.

[stands2reason]

No my friend, 2004 will make 2000 look like a cake walk.

So why is predicting doom more acceptable to you than predicting success?

[comebacknewt]

Pennsylvania is out of play unless there's a serious cleanup of Philadephia-Pittsburgh vote fraud.

Bush only lost Pennsylvania by four points last time around. He should run even stronger this time even with the Governor's office in the RATS control.

I really like his chances there in '04.