So much for the double dip?

CNN ^ | 11-27-02

[mikenola]

So much for the double dip? Despite some gray linings, a spate of good economic news seems to point to better days ahead.

Following a sudden flood of shiny, happy economic news released just before Thanksgiving, another "D" word could be used to describe all those doomsday scenarios: "doubtful."

[Fractal Trader]

Don't let Willie Green see this. He might have a heart attack now that the sky is not falling anymore!

[Toskrin]

Yes. About two weeks ago Joe Lieberman was asked about some good economic data that had just been released. He tried to be upbeat, but was clearly disappointed.

The Dems have had the last chunk of meat pulled from their drumstick.

[AdamSelene235]

[rogerthedodger]

Isn't it true, though, that the labor statistics look better, because, since 9/11, the size of the labor force as a whole has been shrinking. In otherwords, jobless claims and unemployment figures may be held in check by the fact that many people gave up and left the work force all together.

Also, given that GDP and personal income have been pretty much stagnant for a year, but much-lauded consumer spending has grown to offset reductions in other portions of GDP, was does that say about consumer debt? Maybe we're funding our (anemic) recovery by borrowing against the future.

[AdamSelene235]

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[rogerthedodger]

What are the implications of your chart, AS?

[rogerthedodger]

perhaps suggesting a credit bubble looming?

[jiggyboy]

Sorry, guys, these ivory-tower paper-shufflers are just cheerleaders. James Glassman's earlier work was "Dow 36,000" -- that's really all you need to know about his grasp of business and mathematics.

The two paragraphs (were they even in separate paragraphs?) talking about The Booming Housing Market on one hand and the increase in foreclosures is discordant enough, never mind that it conveniently leaves out that New Home Starts last month was the lowest level in like six years.

Also not mentioned is that unemployment numbers are going down because benefits are running out and they're ineligible. Exactly one month from now the extensions expire for good, then we will really see an "improvement" in those unemployment numbers.

All in all, this is an article-length example of Groucho Marx's "argument", "Who are you going to believe -- me, or your own eyes?"

[billybudd]

Let's see how shiny and happy the news is after the holiday retail numbers come in.

[AdamSelene235]

What are the implications of your chart, AS?

Given economics is not a science, the charts are essentially a Rorschatz test.

A good Keynesian or monetarist will tell you everything is A-OK.

Me? I see a reckless expansion of the money supply and an artifact of a housing bubble fueled by the GSE's.

[Nick Danger]

help-wanted ads in 51 major U.S. newspapers, fell to 40 in October from 43 in November.

You know the end times are near when the calendar starts running backwards.

[rogerthedodger]

as i guessed. i'm with you, see my comments.

[Cicero5]

It is a serious expansion of M3 that started in 94, Clinton/Rubin and Greenspan's actions border were totally irresponsible. The answer to every crisis was "expand the money supply, flood the capital markets". That money created a lot of easy credit and tons of debt that has to be washed out of the system some how. I'm not betting on a receovery just yet: a)price of oil is going up, b)dollar is going down, c)inflation/deflation...maybe both.

[AdamSelene235]

c)inflation/deflation...maybe both

I'm just about to go schizo on this point.

But yes, both. The terms are too broad to be used to describe the nuances of our current situation.

Moral of the story, you can create money but you can not control where it goes.

[BfloGuy]

Also not mentioned is that unemployment numbers are going down because benefits are running out and they're ineligible. Exactly one month from now the extensions expire for good, then we will really see an "improvement" in those unemployment numbers.

But unemployment numbers are not going down, yet.

First time filings for unemployment are going down, for several weeks now. This is perhaps the sign we've been looking for that layoffs are abating. Not yet a full-fledged trend, but definitely a good sign.

[Afronaut]

They are laying people off in my company. Lots. NYC and Major Bloomberg (R) are having a great time. Yea, Happy Days are here again! heheheh