The proliferation of MANPADS
By Thomas B Hunter
Manportable surface-to-air missiles, also known as MANPADs, represent a significant potential threat to military and civilian aircraft.
Following the collapse of the USSR, the proliferation of SA-series MANPADs has increased, and the diffusion of these weapons now exceeds the infamous spread of US-made Stinger missiles from Afghanistan during the 1990s. Today, MANPADs of various types are in the hands of as many as 27 guerrilla and terrorist groups around the world.
Tracking the proliferation of MANPADs is a difficult endeavour. Often, the only verification of use by non-state actors has been post-event in nature – recovery of a used launcher or fragments from expended missiles. The black market is the primary source for these weapons. Unlike state-to-state transfers, usually documented and visible, the illicit black market MANPAD trade defies accurate tracking.
The inability of governments to correctly identify seized weapons also contributes to inaccurate reports. In many cases, soldiers and government officials have identified rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and other handheld rocket launchers as MANPADs.
In many cases of surface-to-air attacks on aircraft, misreporting is quite common. Airbursts occurring near low-flying aircraft have frequently been reported as attacks by MANPADS when in fact they are usually RPGs. Attacks on aircraft at very low altitudes, those occurring under 1,000 feet, are almost exclusively RPGs. Guerrilla and terrorist forces have successfully adapted the RPG to the anti-aircraft role. This skill was demonstrated perhaps most clearly when two US MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters were shot down by Somali gunmen in October 1993.
One popular misconception is that these missiles become unusable after several years due to battery or other systems failures and are therefore useless after a period of time. While it is true that all MANPAD batteries have a finite shelf life, these can be replaced with commercially purchased batteries available on the open market and technically proficient terrorist groups might also be able to construct hybrid batteries to replace used ones.
Other concerns include deterioration of missile propellants and seeker coolant, and general storage issues. While these concerns merit attention, the commonly held assumption that these weapons have short shelf lives is erroneous. Most missiles are hermetically sealed in launchers designed for rough handling by soldiers in the field. Temperature extremes are also factored into the design of these weapons, reducing the threat of environmental degradation.
Clearly, the shelf life of MANPADs is, in large part, dependent on the conditions in which the weapon is stored. However, under ideal (factory specified) conditions, some versions of these weapons can remain operational for 22 years or more.
Furthermore, MANPADs remain a popular commodity on the global black arms market.
Al-Qaeda reportedly possesses a number of MANPADs, including SA-7s and Stingers. Persistent rumours also indicate that Bin Laden's personal bodyguards may be equipped with Stingers, ostensibly to counter an airborne attack. It is logical to assume that Al-Qaeda is in possession of additional MANPADs. If this is true, then Al-Qaeda represents the most significant threat to international civil aviation.
| Reported non-state use of MANPADs: 1996-2001 |
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| (Note: list includes some significant events reported by press outlets. |
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| Date |
Non-State Group |
Missile Type |
Killed/Injured |
Aircraft |
Notes |
|
|
| 23 Oct 00 |
LTTE |
Stinger |
4/0 |
Mi-24 'Hind' |
Shot down near Trincomalee harbour. |
|
|
| 04 Oct 00 |
Chechen rebels |
Stinger |
1/0 |
Su-24MR |
Shot down conducting near Urus-Martan. |
|
|
| 04 Oct 00 |
Chechen rebels |
Stinger |
Unknown |
Su-25 |
Shot down on reconnaissance mission. |
|
|
| 10 Aug 00 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
0/0 |
Fighter aircraft |
Gevernemtn aircraft fired at. No damage. |
|
|
| 25-30 Aug 00 |
Chechen rebels |
SA-7 |
0/0 |
Unreported |
Federal helicopters fired on. All missiles miss. |
|
|
| 07 May 00 |
Chechen rebels |
Unknown |
2/0 |
Su-24MR |
Shot down in the southern Chechnya. |
|
|
| 31 Mar 00 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
40/0 |
An-26 |
Transport craft downed possibly by MANPAD. |
|
|
| 10 Nov 99 |
FARC |
Unreported |
5/0 |
DC-3 |
FARC mistakenly downs civilian craft, press says. |
|
|
| 04 Apr 99 |
Hizbullah |
SA-7 |
0/0 |
F-16s |
Two missiles fired on IsraelF-16s. Both miss. |
|
|
| 06 Mar 99 |
PKK |
Unknown |
20/0 |
Puma helicopter |
Helicopter shot down in southern Turkey. |
|
|
| 02 Jan 99 |
UNITA |
Unknown |
14/0 |
C-130 |
UN plane shot down in central Angola. |
|
|
| 26 Dec 98 |
UNITA |
Unknown |
9/0 |
C-130 |
UN-chartered plane shot down in central Angola. |
|
|
| 15 Dec 98 |
UNITA |
Unknown |
10/0 |
An-12 |
An-12 struck by missile en route to Luanda. |
|
|
| 10 Oct 98 |
Tutsi rebels |
Possible SA-7 |
40/0 |
Boeing 727 |
Airplane struck over DR of Congo |
|
|
| 13 Aug 98 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
0/0 |
Kfir fighter and surveillance aircraft |
Missiles fired by rebels.No damage. |
|
|
| 01 Dec 97 |
KLA |
Strela 2M |
5/0 |
Yugoslav Air Transport |
Serb reports KLA shootdown craft near Pristina. |
|
|
| 07 Oct 97 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
0/0 |
Mi-17 transports |
Missiles reportedly fired from Tamil rebel boats |
|
|
| 10 Nov 97 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
2/2 |
Mi-17 transports and Mi-24'Hind' |
Missiles fired at helicopter convoy. |
|
|
| 20 Aug 97 |
LTTE |
Stinger (reported) |
0/0 |
Kfir fighters |
Miss over Puliyankulam |
|
|
| 18 May 97 |
PKK |
SA-7 |
2/0 |
Super Cobra |
Shot down during operations in Iraq. |
|
|
| May 97 |
PKK |
SA-7 |
11/0 |
Cougar transport |
Shot down during operations in Iraq. |
|
|
| 22 Jan 96 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
39/0 |
Mi-17 |
Unconfirmed MANPAD. |
|
|
| 30 Apr 96 |
LTTE |
Unknown |
94/0 |
Unknown |
Two airforce transports downed. |
|
|
| Apr 96 |
Hizbullah |
Unknown |
0/0 |
UAV |
Unconfirmed MANPAD. |
493 of 3546 words
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