Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable, Major Decline Is Coming In 2003 And 2004, Says UCLA Physicist

Science Daily ^ | 12-17-2002 | UCLA

[blam]

We're all gonna die!

[smith288]

"Says UCLA Physicist"

Physicists said the same thing before the great depression

[general_re]

(looking for hot stock tips...)

:^)

[isthisnickcool]

Here is a graphic of one theory. I call it the plumbers butt theory.

[Lil'freeper]

Shades of Asimov's Hari Seldon.

[Roscoe]

http://pup.princeton.edu/chapters/s7341.html

[smith288]

Physics has as much to do about the economy as Sean Penn has to do with international affairs.

I call it "Naked Crusty the Clown laying in bed"

[Prolix]

... "In a few months, I expect to see the stock market much higher than today." Those words were pronounced by Irving Fisher, America's distinguished and famous economist and professor of economics at Yale University, 14 days before Wall Street crashed on Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929. ...

He probably meant to say: much lower.

[Texbob]

Another Liberal democrap trying to talk the economy down. He will not be anymore successful than Beady Eyed Dascle.

[always vigilant]

Ok Mr. UCLA physicist, why don’t you mortgage you house to the hilt and purchase some long term puts. Why not you say, because you don’t know.

Typical

[Mike Darancette]

I would put more stock in this guy's thoery if he was writing his book from the deck of his 110' yacht moored off Monte Carlo.

[Gorzaloon]

http://www.rittmeister.com/_images/chaos.gif

Usually I am a scoffer and debunker, but in any nonlinear complex system, attractors can appear. But I am puzzled as to his statement that earthquakes are harder to predict than stock markets, because earthquakes do not have the human element of mob/panic/stampede psychology.

Order can emerge from seeming chaos, but probably not the kind that will let someone buy a new hot "IBM" for a dollar.

[oldcomputerguy]

When you combine his predictive charts with Elliott Wave theory, you have a perfect fit.

The current rally is likely your last chance to get out, or better yet, get short. The cliff looms just ahead.

His prediction of 700 on the SP by 2004 is way high however. It will more likely be 500-600 somewhere.

[jlogajan]

Actually, any successful prediction tool will modify the markets by its adoption because it changes peoples' behavior, thus making the prediction tool worthless.

[ConservativeDude]

"Actually, any successful prediction tool will modify the markets by its adoption because it changes peoples' behavior, thus making the prediction tool worthless."

Which is sort of like why all the Y2K prediction folks were correct all along?

[VRW Conspirator]

Sornette has developed algorithms -- based on sophisticated mathematics, statistical modeling techniques and collective behavior theory -- that enable him to analyze more than two dozen stock markets worldwide. Applying techniques of physics to economic data, he has developed a quantitative model that can predict the signatures of a coming stock market crash.

Translation: Triple decker Barnyard Droppings disguised to fund useless research for several years. Put your money where your mouth is professor, and maybe we will talk.

[headsonpikes]

Bump your post--this wouldn't be the first time.

Remember Joe Granville's OBV? A great analytical tool, until he publicized it. ;^)

[oldcomputerguy]

http://www.iop.org/EJ3-Links/31/oLPN1hQROMvWIF6JoxUtnA/qf2606.pdf

This is the URL of the abstract pdf file which includes his charts for the doubters.

[austrianecon]

He did hit on the true cause of downturns and bubbles that didn't really require all his fancy mathematical modeling. It's credit expansion and easy money.

[aimhigh]

The next crash comes just in time for the next election. Hillary must be salivating.