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Opinion: The War With Iraq, How Long Will It Last?
my own opinion
Posted on 01/25/2003 9:57:20 AM PST by timydnuc
As we stand on the threshold of war with Saddam and his military establishment I have some conclusions that I feel compelled to share in this forum.
First, we must realize that this guy is a totalitarian dictator of award winning stature. Surely in the class of Hitler, and Stalin. He runs Iraq with an iron hand. We all recognize that. With the real threat of war, and the sure probability of his removal his field commanders must be making some plans for the inevitable.
Using the last conflict with Saddam and his ilk as a measuring stick, I can only assume that when the going gets tough, for them, the tough will surrender as they did in the first war. I just don't see the Iraq "elite guard" as Alamo caliber fighting men, much less their field commanders.
Can you imagine being a high level field commander with the threat of execution by Saddam over your head, knowing that when the war starts Saddam expects you to sacrifice your life, and those of your troops for his maniacial cause? There is NO WAY you can win this thing, but this skumbag (Saddam) expects you to do it, regardless. If you are that field cammander you also know that surrender would fix you in a place of some power in a provisional government in the post war Iraq. Now, given those choices, what would you do? Iraq is going to lose this war, there is no other scenerio. Saddam could have four aces and he'd still lose to our straight, royal flush. For all of the blustering from the socialists through out the world, they know this, and so does our President. We must know this as well. The war isn't going to be the problem in Iraq, it's the provisional government that's going to cause the migrane headache that will insue. If we go about this properly, we can start a huge change in the politics of the middle east. A change that will eradicate terrorism and ilk like Ole Sammy Bin Loud Mouth.
You hear the socialists and communists blathering their sorry old song about American imperialism. Freedom is a gift from God, and God intends us to give the gift to others. Can you imagine Iraq as a constitutional government? The oil riches being offered in a free market from free people. A compelling thought, don't you think?
My thoughts are, that the war won't last long, and the fanatics that pledge their lives to Saddam are few and far between. The stronger sense of survival will take hold after the first troops (from our side) hit the ground.
This is something I've been thinking about for some time. I'd like to get the response of my fellow Freepers on this.
TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Your Opinion/Questions
posted on 01/25/2003 9:57:20 AM PST
The poor buggers are caught between a rock (no pun) and a hard place alright.. Just like the Iraq scientists who keep "refusing" to give solo interviews. Nobody looks forward to seeing their wife, kids, parents and friends hauled off in the middle of the night.
I think many of them will lay weapons down and some will stand firm and fight. I also think the real migraine observation is right on track. Even though things will likely go relatively smoothly in the battle operations, the RATS and media will go on and on ad nauseum about how now we've created another problem and the Bush criticisms will never end.
Guess we just have to get used to putting up with it, but it would sure nice to see some public acknowlegement of what's been accomplished too. Some true "balanced reporting". I know,I know, dream on.
posted on 01/25/2003 10:20:23 AM PST
(Amidst an ocean of criticism, I believe Bush has it right.)
About as long as the last gulf war. A month of bombing followed by a swift ground operation. Perhpas some pockets of resistance in Basra and Baghdad. But over rather quickly I would imagine. But it ain't the war I am worried about. It is the "peace" afterwards.
posted on 01/25/2003 11:17:47 AM PST
The perimeter of the war zone will be drawn around Baghdad within days, if not hours, after the onset of hostilities. Most other locations in the country will succumb quickly, as the common Iraqi soldiers will find it difficult to maintain allegiance to Baghdad in view of the severed communications lines and inability of Saddam Hussein to assert authority when nobody can see or hear him. Only the Republican Guard will be at his side, and a large number of them may be considering the potential glory of walking out to meet the US forces with Saddam on a litter.
In a grand suicide gesture, it is entirely possible that Saddam has a "doomsday" weapon in one of the deeper bunkers, and may choose to detonate it, obliterating himself and his entire staff, if the head of the US military thrust is also taken out. At the very least, practically every doorway in Baghdad will be booby-trapped, and the very streets will be mined. Since the "defenders of Baghdad" never intend for them to be taken up, there won't even be a record of where they would be sown. And it doesn't have to be land mines. It could be an aerosol of some of the deadliest poisons known, or biological in nature, or something so simple as deadfall traps in the streets. And of course, a planted and armed nuclear weapon in the hear of Baghdad. Iraq has longer to develop these alternative escape routes and traps than even the Vietnamese did back during the active years of prosecution of that war, in the '60's and '70s.
It won't be easy, it won't be pretty. But it may have to be done just that way.
I don't think Sadaam is the suicide type. He is more of a Stalin rather than Hitler (two distinct personalities.) I am sure Sadaam already has his worst case scenerio escape plans already in place. He will not be caught or killed. I envision him living out the rest of his life in some Middle east country like Idi Amin is doing in Saudi Arabia to this day.
posted on 01/25/2003 11:50:07 AM PST
Which war? The first war to topple Sadaam should be be over in a few weeks at most. The second war, guerrilla action against U.S. troops as they are move to their new mission of "building democracy and stability" in Iraq, will last for decades.
To: Austin Willard Wright
I don't envision a guerilla war in Iraq afterward. Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shi'te- and ethnic violence will most certianly occur and heavily at first but it will tapper off to low level intensity. But much of the terrain is not conducive to such warfare. But I do envision frequent terrorist attacks on troops stationed there for decades to come in the form of suicide bombers and traditional bombs at nightclubs, hotels- or any places Americans gather. But even that may not occur that frequently if we adopt the approach we seem to have in Kosovo and Bosnia- large fortress like bases- not near significant population centers- with patrols being conducted in force with gunship support. As has been noted- this approach certianly keeps our troops safe but has been innefective in establishing anything like law and order in Kosovo and Bosnia where ethnic violence and lawlessness are still endemic- just fought at lower levels of intensity so as not to arouse the Empire into action. Iraq will be pretty much reduced to the same thing- rule of thug and local warlord with a veneer of a "democratic" government that controls pretty much nothing outside of the government buildings in which they reside.
We will be there for decades to come and Iraq is only the first country in that region we plan on bringing "democracy" too.
posted on 01/25/2003 12:35:27 PM PST
War will last two weeks from the start of intense bombing. There will be just bombing and missiles for the first seven days. There will be one successful poison gas attack. Only the Republican guard will put up a good fight and perhaps only the elite of the Republican guard. Some nasty fighting in Baghdad and the oil fields/facilities. 250 Americans killed. Unfortunately many permanently disabled due to poison gas. Our nukes will not be used. 30% of Iraqui oil wells set ablaze
Saddam Hussein will die though it will take a while longer to hunt him down. At least one of Saddam's sons captured alive.
posted on 01/25/2003 12:45:12 PM PST
You make a good case with your nuanced analyis.
"Opinion: The War With Iraq, How Long Will It Last?"
First of all, I think the media (and the rest of us) has made a mistake in calling this a "war". In the traditional sense, it isn't. We are simply going to go in and remove Saddam Hussein. We have no scrap with the people of Iraq and no desire to war with them. At best, it is an "operation".
How quick will it be? Quick. It won't take long to take Saddam out. Two weeks max. Then it's over. Unless, of course, someone starts WWIII.
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