Jordan To Consider Requests To Extend Auspices Over Iraq

Haaretz Daily ^ | 01/26/03 | Daniel Boone

[Daniel Boone]

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=256691&contrassID=1&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0 (FAIR USE APPLICATION APPLIES) Jordan to consider request to extend auspices over Iraq

By Ora Coren, Ha'aretz Correspondent

DAVOS, Switzerland - Jordanian King Abdallah would favorably consider an American request to extend the auspices of the monarchy over Iraq for a temporary period after the expected U.S.-led attack on Saddam Hussein's regime, if the Americans ask, according to senior political sources participating in the World Ecnomic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

According to the estimates of sources in Davos involved in preparations for the war in Iraq, the realistic scenario is that commanders of Iraqi forces will surrender shortly after the U.S.-led attack begins and will come to American military headquarters waving white flags.

The American government will select from among those commanders the leaders of the interim Iraqi government that will rule the country until a more permanent arrangement is found, the sources added.

After an interim period of 2-3 years, they said, if the temporary regime in Iraq asks from the Jordanian monarchy to extend its auspices over Iraq, King Abdallah would likely consider the request favorably. But Jordanian officials examining U.S. overtures on the matter made clear that Abdallah would need to carefully consider the repercussions such a move would have on Jordan's stability.

King Abdallah said Monday that only "a miricle" could prevent a war in Iraq."

The sources said that the widely held estimate in the international community is that Israel will try to stay outside the conflict with Iraq. But they believe that if Israel is attacked and its population is seriously harmed, there would probably be an Israeli military response.

According to sources, immediately following the war in Iraq, international pressure will resume on Israel and the Palestinian Authority to reach a stage of preparing for the creation of an independent Palestinian state and a final peace agreement within three years, in accordance with the "road map" proposed by the Quartet - the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia.

[kinghorse]

This war will go well. The NFC won yesterday.

The stock market will post a gain this year.

[kinghorse]

This war will go well. The NFC won yesterday.

The stock market will post a gain this year.

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on or off this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

====================================

[Dog Gone]

What the hell? Jordan, who has been lukewarm on the whole Iraqi situation, is offering to absorb Iraq into that country??

Dream on.

[Catspaw]

Most fascinating. It looks like the Middle East may be rearranged.

I may have to buy a new world map next year.

[SunStar]

What the hell? Jordan, who has been lukewarm on the whole Iraqi situation, is offering to absorb Iraq into that country??

This was speculated on before by such outlets as Stratfor.com, Jane's Defense, and even Debka.

The speculation is that Iraq is to be split up into two or three parts, with the center of Iraq, including Baghdad, going back to King Abdullah's family... King Abdullah's cousin was the original monarch of Iraq (killed and overthrown by Saddam Hussein in 1979.

[Howlin]

This would surely solve a lot of problems over there, wouldn't it?

[SJackson]

Here’s a pretty map in color. This idea has been broached in several articles before, including the possibility of an autonomous “Palestinian” region in the red area, possibly even a “Palestinian state” if Jordan want’s nothing further to do with the PLO (which they don’t).

Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy

[smith288]

Most fascinating. It looks like the Middle East may be rearranged.

I may have to buy a new world map next year.

I got your back...

[Catspaw]

That's the map I was thinking of.

[colorado tanker]

My recollection is that before the military took over Iraq was governed by a Hashemite King, the same family as Jordan's royal family. They were installed by the British and I believe were originally from Arabia, so I don't know if there is residual loyalty to the dynasty in Iraq.

[Uncle Miltie]

If I remember correctly, Jordan is hosting both American and ISRAELI troops on its Eastern border with Iraq. This is seriesly interesting....

[spectre]

It sure answers my question about what in the world are WE going to with with Iraq once we liberate it. Amazing.

sw

[PianoMan]

While Jordan is a monarchy it is quite a stable and peaceful one, last I read. They have a bad rep in the US since people think they are Syria but in Europe it's quite a popular vacation destination.

I would love to see Baghdad be a part of Jordan, then go visit there.

[hchutch]

I prefer annexing Iraq, myself...

[LTCJ]

If I remember correctly, Jordan is hosting both American and ISRAELI troops on its Eastern border with Iraq.

Indeed. I believe you'd be amazed at the number of friendly forces in (and soon to arrive in) Jordan.

[McGruff]

Why not add France to the deal.

[Semper Paratus]

After the Hashemites absorb Iraq they'll want to settle their score with the Sauds.

[Jeremiah Jr]

Daniel 8:9 And from one of them came a little horn which became exceedingly great toward the south, and toward the east, and toward the Splendid Land.

Daniel 8
23 And in the latter time of their kingdom, when the transgressors are come to the full, a king of fierce countenance, and understanding dark sentences, shall stand up. 24 And his power shall be mighty, but not by his own power: and he shall destroy wonderfully, and shall prosper, and practise, and shall destroy the mighty and the holy people.
25 And through his policy also he shall cause craft to prosper in his hand; and he shall magnify himself in his heart, and by peace shall destroy many: he shall also stand up against the Prince of princes; but he shall be broken without hand. 26 And the vision of the evening and the morning which was told is true: wherefore shut thou up the vision; for it shall be for many days.
27 And I Daniel fainted, and was sick certain days; afterward I rose up, and did the king's business; and I was astonished at the vision, but none understood it.

[Nick Danger]

This is huge.

Abdallah does not say this unless he is absolutely, 100% certain that Saddam Hussein is walking dead. You do not set yourself up to take Saddam Hussein's place as ruler of Iraq, and live. Not unless Saddam is dead, and soon.

Abdallah just made himself a marked man, and he knows it. This took real guts. Wise Arabs will look at that and say, "He knows something we don't. Saddam Hussein is dead."

[Fabozz]

"If I remember correctly, Jordan is hosting both American and ISRAELI troops on its Eastern border with Iraq."

And has been for months, yes. That's why Jordan took the unprecedented step this year of sealing its border to Palestinians making pilgramage to Saudi Arabia—there's something going on in eastern Jordan that Abdullah doesn't want Iraq's PLO friends to see. There ain't gonna be any SCUDs hitting Tel Aviv this time around...

[section9]

Agreed, Nick. This is a monster.

Abdullah has been told that the operation will occur. Abdullah also has been told that Jordan and his crown will play a central role in reconstruction. This is the only reason he did stick his neck out, as you so insightfully observed.

Notice how the hated Al-Saud's are being neatly shunted aside?

The Hashemites and the Al Saud clans hate each other, ever since the Americans helped the Al Saud run the British-backed Hashemites out of Mecca and Medina. In addition, Abdullah is, by tradition, a direct descendant of the Prophet, so it's not like he has no standing.

Something else you should know, if you don't already. Back in the fall, when the Iraqi opposition caucused in London, the Jordanian Crown Prince, the King's uncle, visited the assembly and "consulted" with the INA.

Something to consider, as if something like this has been planned for some time.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[FreeAtlanta]

They can have Iraq, if they give the Palestinians a small chunk of their land to call their own. Call it a land shift. Man, the peace and prosperity that region would have, if they would only leave little Israel alone!

[FreeAtlanta]

It would make sense that he allow Israel and America to forward base the Arrows and Patriots. That would keep their smashed targets from falling onto Jordan. Maybe that was the carrot that was offered?

[Yehuda]

AMEN!

[Daniel Boone]

Looks like you guys liked my very first post!

[SJackson]

Ping

[B-Chan]

I agree, Seccy. HM wouldn't go this far publicly unless he knew. What will be interesting in all this will be how the Hashemites deal with the House of Al Saud now. No love lost there, that's for sure! Heute Bagdad, Morgens Mekka?

If a United Hasemite Kingdom is proclaimed, it might assume a role similar to that of the pre-War Ottoman Empire: a guarantor of relative stabilty within a context of Arab unity. It will be interesting to see how their neighbors respond -- Israel, Iran, and Egypt especially. (Syria and the Saudis will be very careful not to rock the boat lest they find themselves similarly "liberated"; the Gulf small fry will ride into Bagdad with our boys; Turkey's response will hinge on the resolution of the Kurdish Question.)

Of course the big question mark is Arafat and the gang. Might the Israelis and the new Hashemite kingdom mark off a patch of land for the Pallies?

Time will tell. We are looking at a fundamental rearrangement of the Middle East map -- the most signficant change of affairs in the region since 1917. May God guide us as we sail into unknown waters!

[xJones]

The Hashemites and the Al Saud clans hate each other, ever since the Americans helped the Al Saud run the British-backed Hashemites out of Mecca and Medina. In addition, Abdullah is, by tradition, a direct descendant of the Prophet, so it's not like he has no standing.

Ah yes, the Al Sauds do hate the Hashemites and ran them out of Saudi Arabia where they had long been the *keepers* of Muslim holy places in Mecca and Medina. The name "Hashemite" comes from Hashem, great-grandfather of Mohammed and they claim their descent through his daughter, Fatima's, line.

[Jordanian BS propaganda alert] "King Abdullah II's great- great-grandfather, Al-Hussein bin Ali, Sharif of Mecca and King of the Arabs (later he also became known as King of the Hijaz), led the liberation of Arab lands from their domination by the Ottoman Turks. After freeing the lands of Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria and the Hijaz, Sharif Hussein’s son Abdullah assumed the throne of Transjordan and his second son Faisal assumed the throne of Syria and later Iraq. The Emirate of Transjordan was founded on April 11, 1921, and became the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan upon formal independence from Britain in 1946."

Abdullah I was a terribly ambitious man and was assassinated in 195l. His son Talal, was literally mad, and was quickly deposed in favor of his son Hussein. The al Sauds hate the Hashemites and giving that ever-ambitious clan part of Iraq is one hell of an "up yours" to the Saudis.

[Starrgaizr]

Bush loses the moral high ground if he replaces Saddam's tyranny with a King, no matter how gentle a king. The age of monarchs is gone. The US gains a huge strategic advantage and safeguards the world if it can begin to create a pro-western democratic-capitalist culture in the mideast. Rearranging the map and appointing rulers is the old-world approach that got us into this mess and threatens civilization. No thanks. Only if Abdullah's role is to preside as an Arab over democratic elections and a new constitution for Iraq as a temporary mediator does this make any sense. Sounds rather like more disinformation to scare the Iraqis, Saudis, Iranians, and the rest.

[B-Chan]

Bush loses the moral high ground if he replaces Saddam's tyranny with a King, no matter how gentle a king. The age of monarchs is gone

Says who?

[elfman2]

”I may have to buy a new world map next year.”

This whole Iraq thing's just being driven by big oil & big map anyway.

[SJackson]

It would make sense that he allow Israel and America to forward base the Arrows and Patriots. That would keep their smashed targets from falling onto Jordan. Maybe that was the carrot that was offered?

From King Abdullah hopes Iraq attack will be quick, with minimum pain

The Jordanian King Abdullah II stressed that it is too late to reach a political solution to the Iraqi crisis, while his prime minister Ali Abul Ragheb remarked that Jordan may try to intercept any Iraqi Skud missiles fired against Israel in case an American war against Iraq is launched.

To my knowledge, Jordan doesn't have the independent capability to intercept scuds.

[Starrgaizr]

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness...

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

[Starrgaizr]

Jordan doesn't have the independent capability to intercept scuds.

That is quite interesting. And Jordan can merely say that Iraq is prohibited from possessing Scuds and it is doing its part to enforce UN resolutions.

[Thinkin' Gal]

JJr, how long have we been posting about this scenario? Three years at least, probably 3 1/2. How many times have we been mocked? I lost count.

Daniel 8:8-9 Therefore the he goat waxed very great: and when he was strong, the great horn was broken; and for it came up four notable ones toward the four winds of heaven. And out of one of them came forth a little horn*, which waxed exceeding great, toward the south, and toward the east, and toward the pleasant land.

It is a weak state surrounded by stronger neighbours. To the west is Israel, to the north Syria, to the east Iraq, to the south Saudi Arabia. Jordan has throughout its history been caught in the political crossfire of a turbulent region. <<<

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1639573.stm

The little horn of Ammon.

 

*Alexander
with the horns of Ammon
coin of Lysimachus, c.29

 

Alexander spent his last years in Babylon where he organised his immense
empire, and where he made plans to conquer the Arabic peninsula. <<<

http://monolith.dnsalias.org/~marsares/history/hellen/journey.html

[B-Chan]

"The most Christian King, Louis XVI, was condemned to death by an impious conspiracy and this judgement was carried out. We shall recall to you in a few words the ordering and motives of this sentence. The National Convention had no right or authority to pronounce it. In fact, after having abolished the monarchy, the best of all governments, it had transferred all the public power to the people -- the people which, guided neither by reason nor by counsels, forms just ideas on no point whatsoever; assesses few things in accordance with the truth and evaluates a great many according to mere opinion, which is ever fickle, and ever easy to deceive and to lead into every excess, ungrateful, arrogant, and cruel ... "

Pope Pius VI, Pourquoi Notre Voix, 17 July 1793

[Starrgaizr]

Point taken, but I did mention a constitution. Mob rule in the Arab world would not be much help to the world without a strong, centralized defense of secular democratic rule, perhaps the Turkish model.

[xJones]

I guess I've missed quite a few of your and Jeremiah Jr.'s comments (which I regret) but if you are watching Abdullah II carefully from a prophetic point of view, I couldn't agree more.

[aristeides]

King Abdullah's cousin was the original monarch of Iraq (killed and overthrown by Saddam Hussein in 1979.

King of Iraq was killed in revolution in 1958. Col. Qassem (sp?) came to power in that revolution.

[aristeides]

If Iraq is invaded from Kuwait, Jordan, and Turkey, it falls in days. Study the German invasion of Yugoslavia.

[carton253]

Absolutely not. We can't be forcing Western democracy upon Oriental culture. It will only back-fire in the long run. Abdullah's brand of democracy will be a good starting point. Then, as the middle class becomes more secure, a truer, freer brand of democracy can exist.

[SunStar]

King of Iraq was killed in revolution in 1958. Col. Qassem (sp?) came to power in that revolution.

Thanks for clarifying the facts.

[Thinkin' Gal]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/religion/829770/posts?page=10#10

National Geographic October Issue Includes Close-up of Beast/Sphinx Map of Middle East

See my FRpage for more.

[xJones]

Thank you, there is a great deal to read and think about here.

[Robert_Paulson2]

Britain, the UK and most of the former "colonies" would disagree... as in "God save the Queen (or King as the case may be).
There is nothing "passe" about a monarchy, as long as it has the features of a Constitutional, Democratic nation. (In such cases, the Monarchy acts more like OUR concept of a stable rebublic, than the 'vassals and surfs' of the dark ages.)

Pure democracies are socialist demons.
A monarchy is better than the "mob rule" of a pure democracy. Having said that, the arab version of "monarchy" needs to be "parliamentarized" somewhat to make it palatable to the West... and I suspect that is what the overall strategery of the middle east is all about.

Don't a lot of "demcratic" nations still have a sovereign?
They just don't have "totalitarian" power. The Queen can still dismiss parliament, and call new elections... but never does. She WOULD if there were an emergency. In such cases, the monarchy can be the "enforcer" and "failsafe" device for democratic and constitutional rule...

I don't think the age of monarchs is over.

[B-Chan]

As a monarchist, obviously I agree.

[EternalVigilance]

If Iraq is invaded from Kuwait, Jordan, and Turkey, it falls in days. Study the German invasion of Yugoslavia.

Yes, and Iraqi terrain is so much more conducive to invasion than Yugoslavian terrain.

Don't forget either that Alexander the Great invaded and conquered the Medo-Persians, and that the one supreme mark of his operations was blinding speed...what passed as blinding speed in that time, anyway.

HyperWar, anyone?

;-)

[ellery]

How does this help acheive the ultimate goal of a democratized middle east?