The Superball Economy--In the Silicon Valley compression only sets up the economic explosion.

Wall St Journal ^ | 3-3-03 | ANDY KESSLER

[SJackson]

PALO ALTO, Calif. -- It's not quite a ghost town in Silicon Valley, but the two hottest brands whose signs I see on every building are "Available" and "To Lease." Starbucks and Kinko's are filled with laid-off programmers. Despair is in the air. So fasten your seat belts, it is about time for an upturn.

[martin_fierro]

	Silicon Valley
Send FReepmail if you want on/off SVP list

[backhoe]

I think this guy's right... a little historical perspective:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/519186/posts
Internet II: Rebooting America: Getting Real and Getting It Right
Forbes Magazine ^ | 10 September 2001 | Michael S. Malone, Forbes ASAP, 09.10.01

[LisaAnne]

Thanks for the ping!
Great article. I'm hoping he's right, I have lots of friends out of work and still looking.

[LS]

I'll say it again: the recovery will be led by the TECH sector, and the "bust" in the tech sector was NOT all "dot.com's" and "overspeculation," but was a series of REAL WORLD difficulties, including regulatory, legal, and "last mile." These are being worked out, and will be settled.

This period in the U.S. economy is quite similar, in my view, to the 1870s when despite massive DEFLATION, some of the biggest companies in American history were forming, and the giant U.S. industrial spurt started.

[FITZ]

some of the biggest companies in American history were forming,

But back then they weren't forming in China, why would they form here when it's been decided that American labor costs too much and Indian programmers can do a better job being paid far less money?

[crazykatz]

You made some really Good points there and they are TRUE as well!! UNFORTUNATELY!!

[backhoe]

This period in the U.S. economy is quite similar, in my view, to the 1870s

That's an intriguing parallel- I think the future will be very interesting.

[crazykatz]

In your view, women would still be wearing heavy corsets and horses would still be the major form of transportation.

The past is past...over, gone.... we are NOT in any situation anywhere like the 1880's or 90's.... geeze, where did you get your degree in Economics????

[crazykatz]

You are kidding, right?

[bmwcyle]

I am looking forward to this if it is true.

[backhoe]

Nope- dead serious.

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on or off this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

[dennisw]

Hope springs infernal.

[chance33_98]

Economy goes up, economy goes down. I seem to remember something in Genesis about a similar situation and a dream about storing away grain for the bad times. Not sure how many people got the message.

On a lighter note (sorta) check out the Johnny Cash video 'hurt' - kicks a$$ Link

[RightOnline]

"...and the "bust" in the tech sector was NOT all "dot.com's" and "overspeculation,"..."

Not "all", but most.

Investors went positively able-sugar over "dot coms" and threw obscene amounts of money into businesses with questionable business plans. It was if someone decided that the rules for business had simply disappeared (you know..........little things like "a company needs to actually turn a profit"). It was nuts; I was smack in the middle of it, and I kept advising my clients (I was a consultant at the time) to take heed ("......don't go stupid on me here; understand that you MUST have a business plan that "closes"; don't think you'll strike it rich by having an Internet focus only...").

It gives me zero pleasure to say that I saw it coming.......big time. When the balloon burst and tens of thousands were bounced out of work (most with huge debts), I didn't blink an eye, much as I felt for 'em.

Still...........I think the whole misnamed "dot bomb" thing was healthy. It separated the wheat from the chaff and made the world of online business grow up fast. e-commerce didn't go away; far from it. It morphed quickly into a real business model......and that sorely needed to happen.

[skeeter]

So what has 2002 set up? Beats me.

Beats me, too. All I know is the only things that are the same as they were twenty years ago here in Silicon Valley are the weather & the cost of living. Everything else appears to have vamoosed.

[null and void]

Thanks for the ping!
Great article. I'm hoping he's right, I have lots of friends out of work and still looking.

Like me.

[LS]

What are you talking about? Care to make sense?

[LS]

Nope, you're wrong. The arguments were EXACTLY the same. "American steel can't compete against cheap European steel." So they subsidized many steel makers---but not Carnegie, who made it without subsidies. Same arguments, different countries.