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To: tictoc; longjack; MadIvan
I remember earlier on that Putin was being publicly very supportive, and the Russian press quite explicitly stated that it was about money, and it was in their interest to support the US in Iraq. Russian oil companies were pushing Putin to support the US. I saw reports at the time that suggested that they were looking for a promise that their concessions would be respected. During that same time, Saddam reacted quite angrily and threatened to kick the Russians out for dealing with the US.

It was about that time that the Russians began to move away from our position publicly. I don't know if this is inter-related, but it could be. Press reports at the time indicated that they wanted their concessions to be honored, we were promising them only that they would get a fair shake after the war.

Similarly the French wanted the same promises, and did not get them. I think our position was that these concessions were obtained in the face of sanctions, and should not be respected. But, if they would support us, they would get a fair chance.

The problem with honoring their concessions, beside the fact that they were ill-gotten to begin with, was that they were really quite exagerated in value.

Chirac of course supposedly has a very close relationship going back 25 years, supposedly according to articles I have seen here on FR Saddam financed his first run for office years ago, maybe all of his campaigns. They are supposedly very close. So Chirac isn't going to go against Saddam no matter; it is possible that he really can't.

The US was invited into Saddam's oil fields at the end of the Iran Iraq war. We lost that invitation by backing Kuwait in the war. I almost suspect that we had a crisis of conscience behind the scenes, that we were trying to have it both ways, and perhaps reluctantly sided against him, and it may well be that this played a part.

But we did give up a lucrative business deal for strategic reasons. We could easily have traded an end to sanctions at any time for concessions, if that were what we were about.

You will also notice that our northern "no-fly" zone leaves the Kurdish oil fields in Saddam's hands. If it were about oil, for us, we could have easily occupied the no-fly zones instead of simply patrolling them by air. In my opinion, for humanitarian reasons, we should have.

It does seem that the French and Russians have tried to strike a deal with us on the oil fields, and that we have rebuffed them, and now we are paying a price politically. But if we hold to our guns, we will owe them nothing afterward, and perhaps better yet, the Iraqis will owe them nothing.
31 posted on 03/10/2003 8:10:04 AM PST by marron
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To: marron
Thank you.

Oh to have been a fly on the wall during those backroom discussions!

It will all come out eventually, but we'll probably have to wait a few years for the book.
33 posted on 03/10/2003 9:12:48 AM PST by tictoc
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To: marron
Well, Marron, that is a very good analysis. I'm especially in agreement with your conclusion. Walking this walk will be a bit tricky, but the only way the Obstructors can profit is by a maintenance of the status quo. For my part, I offer up the following:

It is interesting to note that the current crisis seems to have brought many an established international institution to a rather parlous state. If I didn't know any better, I'd almost say it was by design, like some one or some group, who we can't see, is calling the shots on this.

Take, for example, the current brouhaha at the UN. All at once, as if by magic, there appears from nowhere substantial and vociferous oppostion to a course of action everyone had previously agreed to! And in response, the administration, determined as much as anyone ever has been to go to war, seems increasingly content to give this organization the necessary rope with which to hang itself, as it appears it most likely will do.

And then there is the quixotic turn of events at NATO. Now, ordinarily in a situation like this (1) France wouldn't even bother to be involved, because it's not, and has not for a long time, been part and parcel of NATO day-to-day goings-on; and (2) even if they had, we'd ordinarily tell them to sod off.

However, that hasn't happened. I can countenance an attempt by the Germans to oppose, at least initially, the efforts in Turkey, but in the absence of French posturing they would simply be shouted down, or worse yet, ignored.

Then, too, there is the question of political partitioning of the EU because of this issue. Is the war as an issue bigger than the viability of the EU as an issue? Is it worth berating and belittling the newcomers, getting the expanded union off on the wrong foot, just so France can appear to be leading other European nations around by the nose? Can the schism that is being created between Old Europe and New Europe be worth the price, the renting asunder of the Grand Union that the EU pretends to be?

Of course, when it comes to the French shooting themselves in the foot, anything is possible. They have a grand and glorious past in this regard, so let's not sell them short.

Actually, in an historical sense, if Europe is left to it's own devices this is what they invariably do. There are people over there who can see things differently, and know that the short term expedient is no substitute for a long-term coherent view, but typically their voices are drowned out, primarily because there aren't enough of them.

For the nonce we must stay on plan. If the UN dies (i.e., becomes the reincarnation of the League of Nations), then so be it. If NATO collapses, then we'll have to find something to replace it, or better yet, determine if in fact it does need replacing. The EU? Really, who gives a s***? This union wasn't going to work anyway, let's not kid ourselves. If the dream (of some) of a pan-European entity is to work, they'll have to find some way of overcoming hundreds of years of European history. If they're going to fracture over an issue like the US going to war with a middle eastern dictator, they're going to have a very hard time in the future seeking and stressing commonalities. Apart from being on the continent, what do the Spanish have in common with the Poles, who have what in common with the Bulgarians, who have....well, you get the drift.

Back in the 80's, there was a small book out called "Last Waltz of the Tyrants". Well, we're not there yet. We may in fact be a long ways from that exalted state. But if war is the continuation of politics by other means, then the new paradigm of 21st Century warfare demands a parallel development of 21st Century political thought, and we simply aren't going to get that by relying on institutions that seem to have outlived their usefulness.

CA....

36 posted on 03/10/2003 9:22:42 AM PST by Chances Are (Whew! Seems I've once again found that silly grin!)
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