Skip to comments.(3/15/03) Breaking: ABC's Bob Brinker is calling last Tuesday the Stock Market bottom!!
Posted on 03/15/2003 1:30:58 PM PST by Partisan Hack
As of yesterday (friday) he is back to being FULLY INVESTED. He went on to say that all of the sellers are out of the market and he sees considerable upside gains from here.
The same was said of Joe Granville. Every dog has his day.
I second you on both counts. He's clueless politically - - doesn't see the value - - necessity in my view -- for tax cuts. Moreover, he's arrogant to callers.
That said, he called the bear market and I wish I had taken his "sell" advice. I too have been waiting for him to say "Buy" -- and if it's true that this is his signal, as of this weekend, I'm gonna pay attention.
He's been so crabby about the "permabulls" who've said BUY all the way down, that I think he'd be very wary of saying BUY himself if he didn't think he had real good reason to do so.
That may be too late. A market bottom is more likely when the really famous guys are out of the market, because this is when their zillions of followers are out of the market and therefore cannot exert any more downward pressure on prices.
Another interesting tidbit is that some of the big guys who got really wrecked in the crash of '87 were the ones who, up until that moment, had the most stellar long-term records.
I'm still waiting for mine.
You are so right, I should have listened as well, but that is a long story.
The good news is he has an uncanny feel via his "Model" for predicting the markets direction.
I think his Mutual Fund Picks are kinda dull, I have found better Funds, but that is a story foer another day as well. His Active/Passive Portfolio may be the smartest model bar none.
I do enjoy listening to him.
He has, however, had recent favorable opinions about Fannie and Ginnie Maes, and I have always felt they were subject to financial pressure and were abusing their government privileges and likely to be reined in by Congress.
For a completely different perspective, with bold colors and all, read S&P 500 Waterfall Imminent
Soon, time will tell as to the wisdom of each's forecast. Places your bets here!
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I recall once when he was commenting on tax policy, he was using what is sometimes referred to as "static analysis". This is the notion that if you raise taxes, then tax revenues must go up accordingly. This omits the fact that a tax on success is effectively a "sin tax" on success and will tend to reward (and therefore bring about) unproductive behavior.
Since Buffett is still #2 on the Forbes 400 I doubt he got hurt at all. He started investing with $50,000 fifty years ago and has had the most spectacular run in investing history.
Thanks for the flashback LOL. Brokers in at 6:00 a.m. without a tie. That never happened in the early 80's. Sell tickets piled up over two feet high. I think that sell signal took about three weeks to clean up afterwards.
He sold low, bought high. What a bloodbath! To this day, I advise clients to avoid market orders at the opening of the market.
Well he sure put himself out on a limb. He made his "call" on Tuesday and the S&P 500 closed at 800 that day. So far, he looks like a genius.
I'm listening to his broadcast now. The reason he gave for calling a bottom is all the negative news plus fundamental and technical analysis in his models.
Brinker is very right wing BTW, and is going off on an anti France rant. Silly.
I'm skeptical or maybe just cautious about his prediction of a 1 to 3 year stock market rally. Not unless the fix is in and he knows it which could very well be.
Well, his subscribers received his call when the S & P was at 844. But he did call us out of the market near the top of the bubble. He saved my families retirement and my son's college education. The people I know who did not leave the market realize now that a long term bear market is the price for those years of 20 %+ growth.
Bob believes the current bull will be short lived (1-3 years) and will have to call the top as well to "beat the street". Bob has been more successful at calling bottoms than tops IMO. I am following him somewhat guardedly because he also made a QQQ call that was all wrong. (Although to his credit he advised people to hold after the call and maybe they will get their money back over the next two years.
He said that last Tuesday his market model went positive for the beginning
of a cyclical (short-term) bull market, which could last anywhere from 6
months to a couple of years.
He still believes that the long-term trend remains down, and will be down
for several more years.