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(3/15/03) Breaking: ABC's Bob Brinker is calling last Tuesday the Stock Market bottom!!

Posted on 03/15/2003 1:30:58 PM PST by Partisan Hack

As of yesterday (friday) he is back to being FULLY INVESTED. He went on to say that all of the sellers are out of the market and he sees considerable upside gains from here.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: brinker
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To: southernnorthcarolina
Well, excellent news. Not because Brinker's a genius, but because enough people think he is that it could move the market.

The same was said of Joe Granville. Every dog has his day.

21 posted on 03/15/2003 2:08:38 PM PST by mombonn
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To: plain talk
While I don't really like Bob or his politics (left-leaning) he has been right on the stock market

I second you on both counts. He's clueless politically - - doesn't see the value - - necessity in my view -- for tax cuts. Moreover, he's arrogant to callers.

That said, he called the bear market and I wish I had taken his "sell" advice. I too have been waiting for him to say "Buy" -- and if it's true that this is his signal, as of this weekend, I'm gonna pay attention.

He's been so crabby about the "permabulls" who've said BUY all the way down, that I think he'd be very wary of saying BUY himself if he didn't think he had real good reason to do so.

22 posted on 03/15/2003 2:08:53 PM PST by churchillbuff
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To: Servant of the Nine
Wake me when Warren Buffett is fully invested.

That may be too late. A market bottom is more likely when the really famous guys are out of the market, because this is when their zillions of followers are out of the market and therefore cannot exert any more downward pressure on prices.

Another interesting tidbit is that some of the big guys who got really wrecked in the crash of '87 were the ones who, up until that moment, had the most stellar long-term records.

23 posted on 03/15/2003 2:12:15 PM PST by snarkpup
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To: mombonn
Every dog has his day.

I'm still waiting for mine.

24 posted on 03/15/2003 2:15:30 PM PST by southernnorthcarolina (optional tag line, printed after my name)
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To: Partisan Hack
I'm not a regular listener, but I did stumble on his show a few Saturday's ago, and he was ridiculing the peace protests and laying out excellent logic on why we should go to war. FWIW.
25 posted on 03/15/2003 2:15:58 PM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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To: churchillbuff
"Too bad you've never heard of him, because he called the bear market, right at the top of the bubble."

Churchill,

You are so right, I should have listened as well, but that is a long story.

The good news is he has an uncanny feel via his "Model" for predicting the markets direction.

I think his Mutual Fund Picks are kinda dull, I have found better Funds, but that is a story foer another day as well. His Active/Passive Portfolio may be the smartest model bar none.

I do enjoy listening to him.

26 posted on 03/15/2003 2:17:55 PM PST by taildragger
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To: Positive; sourcery; Dec31,1999; ido_now; AntiGuv; Stay the course; arete; rohry; ...
I tend to agree about the market bottom with Brinker, but I don't know if we are coming from the same angle at this. I hear him on the radio when I am driving on the weekends and he seems like a reasonable guy.

He has, however, had recent favorable opinions about Fannie and Ginnie Maes, and I have always felt they were subject to financial pressure and were abusing their government privileges and likely to be reined in by Congress.

For a completely different perspective, with bold colors and all, read S&P 500 Waterfall Imminent

Soon, time will tell as to the wisdom of each's forecast. Places your bets here!

Free Republic Stock Market/Economy Discussion List. Freep Mail me if you want on or off this list.

27 posted on 03/15/2003 2:18:22 PM PST by Fractal Trader (Put that MOAB where the sun doesn't shine, Saddam!)
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To: plain talk
While I don't really like Bob or his politics (left-leaning) ...

I recall once when he was commenting on tax policy, he was using what is sometimes referred to as "static analysis". This is the notion that if you raise taxes, then tax revenues must go up accordingly. This omits the fact that a tax on success is effectively a "sin tax" on success and will tend to reward (and therefore bring about) unproductive behavior.

28 posted on 03/15/2003 2:20:58 PM PST by snarkpup
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To: Partisan Hack
I would hope that anybody who had even given any thought to travelling to France would cancel that trip. --Bob Brinker two minutes ago.
29 posted on 03/15/2003 2:22:41 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: Partisan Hack
I will buy nothing from France until this insanity stops.--Bob Brinker one minute ago
30 posted on 03/15/2003 2:27:40 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: snarkpup
Another interesting tidbit is that some of the big guys who got really wrecked in the crash of '87 were the ones who, up until that moment, had the most stellar long-term records.

Since Buffett is still #2 on the Forbes 400 I doubt he got hurt at all. He started investing with $50,000 fifty years ago and has had the most spectacular run in investing history.

SO9

31 posted on 03/15/2003 2:28:55 PM PST by Servant of the Nine (We are the Hegemon. We can do anything we damned well please.)
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To: mombonn
"The same was said of Joe Granville. Every dog has his day"

Thanks for the flashback LOL. Brokers in at 6:00 a.m. without a tie. That never happened in the early 80's. Sell tickets piled up over two feet high. I think that sell signal took about three weeks to clean up afterwards.

32 posted on 03/15/2003 2:29:31 PM PST by terilyn
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To: Fractal Trader
It probably is the latter, as the GOP seems to have terrible luck. But, perhaps the former will be the case this time.
33 posted on 03/15/2003 2:35:38 PM PST by rwfromkansas (Soli Deo Gloria)
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To: terilyn
I had a client who subscribed to Joe's phone service. He called me at home about 11 p.m. Gave me a whole list of calls to sell, and puts to buy - on the open.

He sold low, bought high. What a bloodbath! To this day, I advise clients to avoid market orders at the opening of the market.

34 posted on 03/15/2003 2:37:30 PM PST by mombonn
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To: SamAdams76; bvw; Tauzero; Matchett-PI; Ken H; rohry; headsonpikes; RCW2001; blam; ...
Well then. I guess that settles it.

Well he sure put himself out on a limb. He made his "call" on Tuesday and the S&P 500 closed at 800 that day. So far, he looks like a genius.

I'm listening to his broadcast now. The reason he gave for calling a bottom is all the negative news plus fundamental and technical analysis in his models.

Brinker is very right wing BTW, and is going off on an anti France rant. Silly.

I'm skeptical or maybe just cautious about his prediction of a 1 to 3 year stock market rally. Not unless the fix is in and he knows it which could very well be.

Richard W.

35 posted on 03/15/2003 2:42:40 PM PST by arete (Greenspan is a ruling class elitist and closet socialist who is destroying the economy)
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To: Fractal Trader
bump
36 posted on 03/15/2003 2:44:07 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Take charge of your destiny, or someone else will)
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To: Partisan Hack
Not to get off track here but has any one dealt with AIER in Great Barington Mass?(amer inst for economic research)
I have been reading their news letter for years and was considering using them for asset mgmnt..
37 posted on 03/15/2003 2:45:53 PM PST by CGASMIA68
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To: arete
Well he sure put himself out on a limb. He made his "call" on Tuesday and the S&P 500 closed at 800 that day. So far, he looks like a genius.

Well, his subscribers received his call when the S & P was at 844. But he did call us out of the market near the top of the bubble. He saved my families retirement and my son's college education. The people I know who did not leave the market realize now that a long term bear market is the price for those years of 20 %+ growth.

Bob believes the current bull will be short lived (1-3 years) and will have to call the top as well to "beat the street". Bob has been more successful at calling bottoms than tops IMO. I am following him somewhat guardedly because he also made a QQQ call that was all wrong. (Although to his credit he advised people to hold after the call and maybe they will get their money back over the next two years.

38 posted on 03/15/2003 2:50:36 PM PST by KC_for_Freedom
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To: Partisan Hack
Bob Brinker did not call the bottom of the secular (long-term bear market.

He said that last Tuesday his market model went positive for the beginning
of a cyclical (short-term) bull market, which could last anywhere from 6
months to a couple of years.

He still believes that the long-term trend remains down, and will be down
for several more years.

39 posted on 03/15/2003 2:53:11 PM PST by MrNatural (..truckin' on down the line...)
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To: Partisan Hack
Bob is brillianat on Money Talk. I listen to him every Sunday on AM.
40 posted on 03/15/2003 2:53:35 PM PST by MonroeDNA (Leave the monkeys alone.)
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