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NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE
NASA News ^ | 03-20-2003 | Elvia H. Thompson

Posted on 03/20/2003 12:36:40 PM PST by boris

From: NASANews@hq.nasa.gov [mailto:NASANews@hq.nasa.gov]

Sent: Thursday, March 20, 2003 6:10 AM

Subject: NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE

Elvia H. Thompson
Headquarters, Washington March 20, 2003
(Phone: 202/358-1696)

Krishna Ramanujan
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
(Phone: 301/286-3026)

RELEASE: 03-106

NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE

Since the late 1970s, the amount of solar radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet sunspot activity, has increased by nearly .05 percent per decade, according to a NASA funded study.

"This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change," said Richard Willson, a researcher affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Earth Institute, New York. He is the lead author of the study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.

"Historical records of solar activity indicate that solar radiation has been increasing since the late 19th century. If a trend, comparable to the one found in this study, persisted throughout the 20th century, it would have provided a significant component of the global warming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to have occurred over the past 100 years," he said.

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded this research as part of its mission to understand and protect our home planet by studying the primary causes of climate variability, including trends in solar radiation that may be a factor in global climate change.

The solar cycle occurs approximately every 11 years when the sun undergoes a period of increased magnetic and sunspot activity called the "solar maximum," followed by a quiet period called the "solar minimum."

Although the inferred increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more. Satellite observations of total solar irradiance have obtained a long enough record (over 24 years) to begin looking for this effect.

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is the radiant energy received by the Earth from the sun, over all wavelengths, outside the atmosphere. TSI interaction with the Earth's atmosphere, oceans and landmasses is the biggest factor determining our climate. To put it into perspective, decreases in TSI of 0.2 percent occur during the weeklong passage of large sunspot groups across our side of the sun. These changes are relatively insignificant compared to the sun's total output of energy, yet equivalent to all the energy that mankind uses in a year. According to Willson, small variations, like the one found in this study, if sustained over many decades, could have significant climate effects.

In order to investigate the possibility of a solar trend, Willson needed to put together a long-term dataset of the sun's total output. Six overlapping satellite experiments have monitored TSI since late 1978. The first record came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Nimbus7 Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment (1978 - 1993). Other records came from NASA's Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitors: ACRIM1 on the Solar Maximum Mission (1980 - 1989), ACRIM2 on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2001) and ACRIM3 on the ACRIMSAT satellite (2000 to present). Also, NASA launched its own Earth Radiation Budget Experiment on its Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) in 1984. The European Space Agency's (ESA) SOHO/VIRGO experiment also provided an independent data set (1996 to 1998).

In this study, Willson, who is also Principal Investigator of NASA's ACRIM experiments, compiled a TSI record of over 24 years by carefully piecing together the overlapping records. In order to construct a long-term dataset, he needed to bridge a two-year gap (1989 to 1991) between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2. Both the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS measurements overlapped the ACRIM 'gap.' Using Nimbus7/ERB results produced a 0.05 percent per decade upward trend between solar minima, while ERBS results produced no trend.

Until this study, the cause of this difference, and hence the validity of the TSI trend, was uncertain. Willson has identified specific errors in the ERBS data responsible for the difference. The accurate long-term dataset, therefore, shows a significant positive trend (.05 percent per decade) in TSI between the solar minima of solar cycles 21 to 23 (1978 to present). This major finding may help climatologists to distinguish between solar and man-made influences on climate.

NASA's ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 experiment began in 2000 and will extend the long-term solar observations into the future for at least a five-year minimum mission.

For more information on the Internet, visit: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html

For more information about ACRIM on the Internet, visit: http://www.acrim.com


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climate; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; solaractivity

1 posted on 03/20/2003 12:36:40 PM PST by boris
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To: boris
Sounds like the UN needs to have a treaty passed that will mandate decreased solar output.

It would be as effective and useful as anything else they do.

2 posted on 03/20/2003 12:39:33 PM PST by zeugma (If you use microsoft products, you are feeding the beast.)
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To: boris
No surprise.
3 posted on 03/20/2003 12:39:45 PM PST by rustbucket
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To: boris
Better not tell the global warming crowd that the Sun affects Earth's temperature.
4 posted on 03/20/2003 12:39:50 PM PST by Grand Old Partisan
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To: boris
Quick, let's pass enviro-friendly legislation to outlaw the sun!
5 posted on 03/20/2003 12:39:53 PM PST by Wolfstar (Why war in Iraq? Answer: ANTHRAX.)
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To: boris
Who woulda thunk that the SUN causes changes in the WEATHER?
6 posted on 03/20/2003 12:40:33 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn’t be, in its eyes, a slave.)
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To: boris
"Historical records of solar activity indicate that solar radiation has been increasing since the late 19th century. If a trend, comparable to the one found in this study, persisted throughout the 20th century, it would have provided a significant component of the the only reason for global warming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to have occurred over the past 100 years," he said.

Fixed it for him...

7 posted on 03/20/2003 12:41:24 PM PST by danneskjold
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To: boris
This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change


Duhhhh
8 posted on 03/20/2003 12:42:46 PM PST by taxcontrol
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To: Grand Old Partisan
I always find it amusing when someone mentions that the sun affects the Earth's temperature.
9 posted on 03/20/2003 12:43:48 PM PST by TheDon (It takes two to make peace, but only one to make war.)
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To: boris
Wow. Saddam possibly dead, global warming debunked all on the same day.
10 posted on 03/20/2003 12:43:55 PM PST by ilgipper
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To: zeugma
Why? Franch would just veto it.
11 posted on 03/20/2003 12:43:58 PM PST by phalynx
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To: Wolfstar
Let's just send the GloBULL warming wackos to the sun with some water, to douse it out a bit.... Sure we have warming and cooling trends on earth. We have had ICE AGES. Solar trends affect the climate profoundly. And SUVs didn't even exist 200 million years ago when ice ages gave way to warming trends. Unless they came in the UFOs. LOL
12 posted on 03/20/2003 12:44:07 PM PST by buffyt (God Bless America Land That I Love Stand Beside Her and Guide Her Thru the Night)
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To: zeugma
Sounds like the UN needs to have a treaty passed that will mandate decreased solar output.

It would be as effective and useful as anything else they do.

LOL Or maybe Greenpeace will try to sue the sun to force it to decrease its output of harmful radiation. It's all for the chiiillll-dren, you know.

13 posted on 03/20/2003 12:46:01 PM PST by FierceDraka
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To: taxcontrol
This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change

And if this trend does not continue ... if (gasp!) the solar trend decreases ... WE'LL HAVE AN ICE AGE! AAAAIIIIEEEEE!!

14 posted on 03/20/2003 12:46:32 PM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: boris
"The solar cycle occurs approximately every 11 years when the sun undergoes a period of increased magnetic and sunspot activity called the "solar maximum," followed by a quiet period called the "solar minimum."

Looks like I was ahead of NASA. I noticed a long time ago that our weather patterns aka climate in this area seem to go in cycles. It snows about once every 10-13 years. We have a flood about once every ten years. We have a hurricane about once every ten or twenty years. We have a really hot summer, or an extra mild one-- or a really cold winter -- about once every 10 -13 years.

NASA sees a 11 year cycle to the solar patterns. That fits into my theory of climate. I think God made it that way so the earth doesn't get too hot or too cold. I think he created climates and cycles for that purpose. I don't think the gloBULL warming crowd will agree.

15 posted on 03/20/2003 12:50:48 PM PST by buffyt (God Bless America Land That I Love Stand Beside Her and Guide Her Thru the Night)
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To: *Global Warming Hoax; Ernest_at_the_Beach; farmfriend
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list
16 posted on 03/20/2003 12:52:12 PM PST by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
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To: buffyt
Let's just send the GloBULL warming wackos to the sun with some water, to douse it out a bit....

But let's make sure they go at night. If we send them during the day, they might get burnt :)

17 posted on 03/20/2003 12:56:21 PM PST by Fudd
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To: buffyt
The 11 year cycle has been known for years. The larger problem is that there is more than one cycle and they are not really all known, so when they overlap, they can make it hotter or colder than expected from the 11 year cycle. Think harmonics where if the frequencies are in phase, the sound is louder but if out of phase the sound is lower.
18 posted on 03/20/2003 12:59:00 PM PST by KeyWest
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To: boris
Haven't you guys heard? The problem of the decade is now the lack of water. Come on, get with the program!
19 posted on 03/20/2003 1:02:38 PM PST by narby (Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without an accordian)
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To: zeugma
Sounds like the UN needs to have a treaty passed that will mandate decreased solar output.

We must send Blix to inspect the sun to ensure compliance.

20 posted on 03/20/2003 1:07:54 PM PST by malakhi (The fundamentalist unitarian freeper formerly known as "angelo".)
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To: zeugma
Sounds like the UN needs to have a treaty passed that will mandate decreased solar output.

We must send Blix to inspect the sun to ensure compliance.

21 posted on 03/20/2003 1:07:54 PM PST by malakhi (The fundamentalist unitarian freeper formerly known as "angelo".)
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To: boris
This can't be true. It's all the human's fault I tell ya!
22 posted on 03/20/2003 1:20:15 PM PST by CaptRon
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