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SARS: With Hong Kong Chart
per loin

Posted on 04/17/2003 6:43:39 AM PDT by per loin

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To: EternalHope
But even with only 35 probable cases, no deaths is still remarkable.
41 posted on 04/17/2003 2:46:42 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: per loin
After puzzling a bit, I think I have a little more insight into the Hong Kong "Date of Onset" graph.

The graph shows 1,152 patients. Statistics elsewhere show 1,297 patients. Why the difference I don't know. But another factor is also at work that will guarantee lower recent numbers in a graph of this type.

If, as the table infers, there has been a consistent difference between date of onset and the date a new case is reported, then almost all of the cases reported in the last few days will have a date of onset several days in the past. The only cases with a date of onset within a few days of being reported as a new case would be the ones that worsened faster than normal. A graph constructed from this kind of data would ALWAYS show low numbers in the most recent few days.

In other words, the decline this table shows in the last few days is an artifact of how the data is presented, not an actual indication that the disease is tapering off. After backing out the cases from Amoy Gardens and eliminating the most recent 10 days because this period is incomplete, the actual graph is essentially flat.

Sad to say, I jumped the gun with my earlier optimistic post. My apologies to all.
42 posted on 04/17/2003 2:53:10 PM PDT by EternalHope (France is our enemy.)
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To: aristeides
But even with only 35 probable cases, no deaths is still remarkable.

Yep. We are still doing better than most nations, just not spectacularly better.

43 posted on 04/17/2003 2:56:14 PM PDT by EternalHope (France is our enemy.)
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To: All
Singapore taxi driver SARS suspect as cases rise. Sounds as though he caught the disease from driving victims to hospitals.
44 posted on 04/17/2003 2:57:33 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides
Just the person you want to be infectious, a cab driver.
45 posted on 04/17/2003 2:58:43 PM PDT by per loin
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To: EternalHope
But a flat graph in a spreading epidemic is good news: it means the epidemic is not growing geometrically, as one would expect with larger and larger total numbers of victims, but only arithmetically. When one considers the long-term implications (actually not even so very long-term) of geometric growth, that is a very comforting fact.
46 posted on 04/17/2003 3:00:16 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: EternalHope; All
The graph ends on April 13 on which the number 1152 is within 2 cases of what I have on my chart.

BTW, i have a graph which combines both onsets and hospitalizations since Mar 13. It is a bit inaccurate, as I had to estimate numbers from the HK graph, but if anyone has a website, and would like to post it, it's available.

47 posted on 04/17/2003 3:04:41 PM PDT by per loin
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To: per loin
The graph ends on April 13 on which the number 1152 is within 2 cases of what I have on my chart.

That explains the numerical discrepancy.

So why haven't they updated the graph?

48 posted on 04/17/2003 3:07:30 PM PDT by EternalHope (France is our enemy.)
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To: EternalHope
Why don't they publish the numbers on which the graph is based? And the figures on average hospital time? And on time lags between admittance and death? Secretive b*stards!
49 posted on 04/17/2003 3:11:23 PM PDT by per loin
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To: per loin
Why don't they publish the numbers on which the graph is based? And the figures on average hospital time? And on time lags between admittance and death? Secretive b*stards!

Agree completely.

I can see holding back info that they are not yet sure about, but they could release a lot more than they have. Failure to inform just fuels speculation.

50 posted on 04/17/2003 3:22:50 PM PDT by EternalHope (France is our enemy.)
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To: All
Condo residents may have been exposed to SARS

FROM CANADIAN PRESS

Residents at a condominium building in the northeast of Toronto were being warned today they were at risk after two, unlinked cases of SARS-like illness were detected among occupants of the 252-unit building.

"We have identified a couple of instances in which a SARS-like illness has arisen, and as a precaution, we will be distributing written notices to all of the occupants of the building," said Dr. Sheela Basrur, Toronto's medical officer of health.

"That will be done today."

The notices will describe the fact that there is a "potential risk" to the building's residents and advise them to go to an emergency room if they show symptoms.

The two cases do not have an apparently direct link to one another, which raises concern, Basrur said.

"We don't want to just want to close our eyes and cross our fingers. We want to go out there and assure ourselves that in fact if anyone else is ill we've found them."

In another development, a group of 450 people who participated in a business conference last weekend in Montreal have agreed to voluntary quarantine after learning they were in contact with a Toronto man who has been diagnosed with a probable case of SARS.

Also today, a retirement home in the city's north end said that a paid companion who visited its facility was not breaching a quarantine order, as had been earlier believed.

The Baycrest Centre for Geriatric Care closed its doors to paid companions Wednesday night because it believed a member of a Roman Catholic prayer group under quarantine had come to the residence in defiance of strict public health instructions to stay home in isolation.

The centre's vice president of medical services said it turned out the person was not a member of the prayer group and therefore not subject to the quarantine.

"The individual . . . in fact was not in quarantine, it took a while to clarify that. They have been cleared by public health," said Michael Gordon.

"No one has entered Baycrest who was either symptomatic with SARS or was actually supposed to be in quarantine but wasn't."

"There was no risk of transmitting any disease."

He said an investigation revealed that the individual belonged to the larger religious group but not the congregation in question that was placed under quarantine.

Nevertheless, Gordon said paid helpers would continue to be banned from the facility.

"We're taking very prudent steps. We're very protective of the people who live with us - they are our family."

There were reports earlier in the day that two paid helpers may have put elderly residents at risk, but Gordon said that was a misunderstanding. A staff member is currently under quarantine for suspected exposure but has not violated the isolation order, said Gordon.

On Tuesday, Baycrest eased some of its visiting restrictions after having been deemed a low-risk (for SARS) health-care facility by the provincial Health Ministry. That means none of its patients or staff have been diagnosed with severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The easing of restrictions meant residents of the facility were permitted one visitor at a time. Private companions were also allowed to return to assist their clients, though anyone entering the facility had to go through infection control procedures.

The facility acknowledged today it was having a problem getting some visitors to comply with all the strict rules aimed at preventing the spread of SARS, including the requirement to wear masks. Its Web site warns that visitors who defy the mask order will be forced to leave the facility.

In Montreal, Dr. John Carsley, head of the infectious diseases unit of the city's public health department, said the man with a probable case of SARS who was in contact with the business conference was diagnosed upon his return to his home in Toronto. Ontario authorities then contacted their Quebec counterparts and almost all the conference participants were notified and agreed to stay in quarantine until Tuesday as a precaution.

About 360 of the participants were from the Montreal area, while 90 Americans were also at the meeting.

The false alarm over the paid companions underscores the immense stress facilities in the Toronto region are under as they fight to keep SARS from infecting their residents and their staff.

It comes at a time when infection control specialists have been warning that Toronto's outbreak is in danger of breaking out of the containment rings public health officials have tried to erect around it, if members of the public don't follow public health instructions to the letter.

For the general public, those instructions include frequent hand washing and staying home if one is feeling unwell. For those who have been instructed to isolate themselves, that means holing up in their homes, away from their family members, for a 10-day period.

Health Minister Tony Clement denied today the outbreak was out-of-control. And the province's chief medical officer of health warned his staff will play hardball with people who don't obey orders.

"For anybody who's not going to follow simple instructions, the law is there, we'll use it," said Dr. Colin D'Cunha.

"Public health generally doesn't go swinging the heavy hand of the law. By nature we're not police persons, we believe in being reasonable. But we'll take those steps if we need to."


51 posted on 04/17/2003 3:28:02 PM PDT by per loin
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To: EternalHope
Failure to inform just fuels speculation.

And drives info junkies nuts. I know.

52 posted on 04/17/2003 3:29:42 PM PDT by per loin
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To: per loin
And drives info junkies nuts. I know.

I just want to know everything that can possibly be known, plus a little bit. I'm not an info junkie. I'm not an info junkie. I'm not an info junkie. I'm not an...

Maybe I can find a self help group. Got any info on that?

53 posted on 04/17/2003 3:44:50 PM PDT by EternalHope (France is our enemy.)
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To: EternalHope
LOL
54 posted on 04/17/2003 3:46:06 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: CathyRyan
Several Australian news sites are now reporting that Canada has raised its SARS cases to 306. A huge jump if true, but a figure that would fit their death number, bring it to 4.2% of all cases.
55 posted on 04/17/2003 3:50:59 PM PDT by per loin
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To: AD from SpringBay
Thanks! I see the CDC is using 4.8%. I wonder if international travel will be limited after the weekend. Thank God the case numbers here have been lowered.
56 posted on 04/17/2003 3:52:48 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: per loin
Of the 306 reported cases, 251 are in Ontario, 43 in British Columbia, five in Alberta, four in Prince Edward, two in New Brunswick, and one in Saskatchewan.
57 posted on 04/17/2003 3:53:30 PM PDT by per loin
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To: EternalHope
You are so right. Just as we can't see the real death rate yet and we can only hedge where on the curve we are, that onset to new cases chart colors the current picture.
58 posted on 04/17/2003 4:08:01 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: per loin
A 16-month toddler who died at the KK Children's and Women's Hospital has been classified as a suspect SARS case until post-mortem findings show otherwise.

The girl was first admitted on 31 March after she had an asthma attack, the Ministry of Health revealed at a news conference on Wednesday.

She was discharged four days later, but re-admitted on 9 April, this time with a high fever.

The girl was sent to intensive care and isolated as she showed signs of pneumonia and had severe breathing difficulties.

But tests showed she did not have SARS, and she also had no contact with a SARS patient.

The toddler's condition deteriorated and she died on Tuesday night.

For the rest of the story...

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/37659/1/.html
59 posted on 04/17/2003 4:33:08 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: per loin
Seven Australian news sites now reporting the 306 cases in Canada, but nothing from the Canucks direct. May be a garbled story.
60 posted on 04/17/2003 4:51:00 PM PDT by per loin
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