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Active SARS Cases Down 30% From Peak (Toronto, Ontario)
Ontario Ministry of Health Statistics ^ | Various | MalcolmS

Posted on 04/21/2003 9:13:12 AM PDT by MalcolmS

SARS Statistics are presented in the media without discussion or analysis. The numbers usually published are the cumulative total number of cases, without regard for those who have recovered. I have analyzed the Ontario statistics and created the following chart. A new category has been created--Active Cases. Active Cases represent people who are currently sick. This is calculated by taking the total cumulative cases and subtracting those who have died or who have been discharged.

Date: April---> 012 013 014 015 017 018 019 020

Total Cases---> 223 232 236 244 251 249 249 253

Ont Deaths----> 013 013 013 013 013 013 014 014

Released------> 054 055 085 082 100 109 120 124

Active Cases-> 156 164 138 149 138 127 115 115

Two important trends are evident.

First, although not shown on the chart, the number of new cases was formerly increasing by about 10-12% per day. When there were about 100 cases, it would jump to 112 the next day. Now the total number of cases is increasing by just 1-2% each day, or in one case decreasing as suspect cases were eliminated.

Secondly, note that the number of active cases peaked on April 13 and has decreased by 30% since that time.

Clearly, quarantine and tracking efforts are beginning to pay off. Efforts are becoming more agressive. On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: canada; sars; toronto
Please be gentle. Virgin Poster Alert. Did my best to make the chart legible.
1 posted on 04/21/2003 9:13:13 AM PDT by MalcolmS
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To: MalcolmS
Just to clarify. The statistics are available in raw form on the linked website. The analysis posted above is my own, exclusive to FR.
2 posted on 04/21/2003 9:15:27 AM PDT by MalcolmS (Combatting Media Innumeracy-a free public service.)
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To: MalcolmS
Cool! Good job I think! And I think your methodology is sound....it makes sense to only keep track of those that are currently sick!
3 posted on 04/21/2003 9:20:14 AM PDT by FourtySeven
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To: MalcolmS; CathyRyan; Mother Abigail; Dog Gone; Petronski; per loin; riri; flutters; Judith Anne; ...
Thanks for the info.

On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit.

That shouldn't be observable in the number of cases yet, should it, given the incubation period?

Any information on the condition of the released patients?

4 posted on 04/21/2003 9:21:00 AM PDT by aristeides
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To: MalcolmS
You might find the graphs on the WHO site useful. They provide essentially the same information (in graphical form).
5 posted on 04/21/2003 9:21:31 AM PDT by Scutter
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To: MalcolmS; per loin
Thanks for posting, and thanks for the analysis...frankly I expect peaks and troughs in the transmission and case numbers. If I'm right, there have been troughs before, which then rose to new peaks. Maybe per loin or someone else can set me straight, if I'm wrong.
6 posted on 04/21/2003 9:26:12 AM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: Judith Anne
I'm most familiar with Hong Kong, and there they've had four days now of reduction in the total number of hospitalized patients. Those are the first days of reduction since the disease hit.

Hong Kong is also having a slowdown in the number of new hospitalizations. That slowdown has been going on for six days. Prior slowdowns have been shorter.

7 posted on 04/21/2003 9:44:29 AM PDT by per loin
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To: aristeides
Just re-reading this:

"On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit."

Stay home? Stay home and do what? Get sicker, alone? Have family members care for you? Note that they didn't tell them to go to ER X or call Public Health Ministry Office...

8 posted on 04/21/2003 9:46:18 AM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: per loin
Thanks. I'll keep a watch for Capetown cases in a week or so...
9 posted on 04/21/2003 9:47:50 AM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: Judith Anne
Maybe sooner. He got sick on the 12th, and left Cape Town on the 18th.

BTW, I see that India just confirmed three new cases. One is a man who had flown to India to attend a wedding. The other two are his mother and sister, who live in Pune in west India, and who had not left the country. Local transmission.

10 posted on 04/21/2003 10:01:05 AM PDT by per loin
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To: per loin
It may soon be easier to remember where SARS is not, than where it is...
11 posted on 04/21/2003 10:05:15 AM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: MalcolmS
Good. I didn't have time to read all those end-of-the-world SARS threads posted here recently.
12 posted on 04/21/2003 10:09:20 AM PDT by Consort (Use only un-hyphenated words when posting.)
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To: Judith Anne
Just re-reading this:

"On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit."

Stay home? Stay home and do what? Get sicker, alone? Have family members care for you? Note that they didn't tell them to go to ER X or call Public Health Ministry Office...

That's my omission. In fact there are probably half a dozen numbers to call if you think you have SARS (local health units, special SARS no. and Health Ministry "dial-a-nurse" lines. There are also a number of screening clinics specific to SARS, which you would get referred to after calling. These have existed throughout the crisis. I just included the new information that people with symptoms that could also be a basic cold or flu were being asked to stay out of public spaces where widespread transmission could occur in the event it turned out to be SARs instead of just a cold.

13 posted on 04/21/2003 11:03:23 AM PDT by MalcolmS (Combatting Media Innumeracy-a free public service.)
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To: MalcolmS
Whew! Thanks, MalcolmS! No problem. ;-D
14 posted on 04/21/2003 11:07:44 AM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: Judith Anne
Stay home? Stay home and do what? Get sicker, alone? Have family members care for you? Note that they didn't tell them to go to ER X or call Public Health Ministry Office...

Yes they did, I live in Toronto, they told us to phone the SARS hotline immediately and then flashed it up on the screen, then they tell you to go to the nearest SARS specific clinic, not the Emergency Room at the Hospital. We've set up seperate clinics for SARS only all over the city.

15 posted on 04/21/2003 12:36:35 PM PDT by IvanT
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To: IvanT
Also, people are starting to get court orders against them if they refuse to quarantine and $5000.00 fines are also now in place.
16 posted on 04/21/2003 12:37:51 PM PDT by IvanT
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To: IvanT
Thanks IvanT. That's encouraging. I hope the US does something identical when necessary.
17 posted on 04/21/2003 12:43:30 PM PDT by Judith Anne
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To: MalcolmS
It's the spikes on charts that tell the tale of an epidemic; whether this is a true decline or not will become clear this week.
18 posted on 04/21/2003 2:14:16 PM PDT by Prince Charles
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To: Prince Charles
That's right, we actually had another incident at a funeral home a couple weeks ago, where an infected patient attended a funeral with aboot 70 people at it. They were all put quarantine immediately, and thankfully, all of them just completed the quaratine period without developing symptoms. Believe me, it's a struggle, but we've been tackling it alot better than the Asians in the far east have.
19 posted on 04/21/2003 3:08:22 PM PDT by IvanT
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