Skip to comments.Active SARS Cases Down 30% From Peak (Toronto, Ontario)
Posted on 04/21/2003 9:13:12 AM PDT by MalcolmS
SARS Statistics are presented in the media without discussion or analysis. The numbers usually published are the cumulative total number of cases, without regard for those who have recovered. I have analyzed the Ontario statistics and created the following chart. A new category has been created--Active Cases. Active Cases represent people who are currently sick. This is calculated by taking the total cumulative cases and subtracting those who have died or who have been discharged.
Date: April---> 012 013 014 015 017 018 019 020
Total Cases---> 223 232 236 244 251 249 249 253
Ont Deaths----> 013 013 013 013 013 013 014 014
Released------> 054 055 085 082 100 109 120 124
Active Cases-> 156 164 138 149 138 127 115 115
Two important trends are evident.
First, although not shown on the chart, the number of new cases was formerly increasing by about 10-12% per day. When there were about 100 cases, it would jump to 112 the next day. Now the total number of cases is increasing by just 1-2% each day, or in one case decreasing as suspect cases were eliminated.
Secondly, note that the number of active cases peaked on April 13 and has decreased by 30% since that time.
Clearly, quarantine and tracking efforts are beginning to pay off. Efforts are becoming more agressive. On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit.
On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit.
That shouldn't be observable in the number of cases yet, should it, given the incubation period?
Any information on the condition of the released patients?
Hong Kong is also having a slowdown in the number of new hospitalizations. That slowdown has been going on for six days. Prior slowdowns have been shorter.
BTW, I see that India just confirmed three new cases. One is a man who had flown to India to attend a wedding. The other two are his mother and sister, who live in Pune in west India, and who had not left the country. Local transmission.
"On the day before Good Friday, the Health Ministry told anyone with any one of the six symptoms of SARS to stay home from work or school and not to travel on public transit."
Stay home? Stay home and do what? Get sicker, alone? Have family members care for you? Note that they didn't tell them to go to ER X or call Public Health Ministry Office...
That's my omission. In fact there are probably half a dozen numbers to call if you think you have SARS (local health units, special SARS no. and Health Ministry "dial-a-nurse" lines. There are also a number of screening clinics specific to SARS, which you would get referred to after calling. These have existed throughout the crisis. I just included the new information that people with symptoms that could also be a basic cold or flu were being asked to stay out of public spaces where widespread transmission could occur in the event it turned out to be SARs instead of just a cold.
Yes they did, I live in Toronto, they told us to phone the SARS hotline immediately and then flashed it up on the screen, then they tell you to go to the nearest SARS specific clinic, not the Emergency Room at the Hospital. We've set up seperate clinics for SARS only all over the city.
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