CHINA: Military Alliance With India in the Works

strategypage.com ^ | May 13, 2003 | Q & D Headlines

[Destro]

CHINA: Military Alliance With India in the Works

May 13, 2003: Chinese and Indian military officials are working out details for closer cooperation between the two countries. Despite a long term border dispute (high in unpopulated mountains), the two countries have much in common. Moslem Pakistan is chaotic and backward looking, while India is not. Although China has long been allies with Pakistan, Indian is seen as a better match. Between them, the two nations possess a third of the planet's population. Military cooperation, and the growing size of each nation's navy, would give the two effective control of sea areas from the African coast to Japan.

[Destro]

Analysis: China, Russia sewing up Eurasia

Chinese Guest Woos India

Multi-polarity of strategic interest to India, Russia: envoy

[Travis McGee]

Ping.

[sackofcatfood]

If China goes with India, Pakistan is screwed.

[DakotaGator]

This is very bad.

India was the best counter the West had to China's new expansion.

Make no mistake, China is our most serious enemy.

[maui_hawaii]

The clear winner in all of this is India. I don't think this is of much concern myself primarily because China is trying to thwart the US' moves with this idea.

[SauronOfMordor]

If China and India are allies, and their people are embedded into the IT depts of every large US company, the US is not in good shape either.

The intense problem with H1B's and outsourcing, is what happens when the country of primary loyalty of the people doing sensitive work, and with access to sensitive data, suddenly turns hostile to the US? You find yourself with an impossible security problem.

[Destro]

The clear winner is Russia which is a pivot for China and India.

Russian alliance with Iran + India + China and dare I say the EU?

Our State Dept plays checkers while Russia plays chess.

Great Game check mate?

[AM2000]

your thoughts?

[SauronOfMordor]

ping - what happens when our engineering and IT depts are manned by citizens of a power that suddenly turns hostile to US

[Pearls Before Swine]

Not bloody likely. The Indians fear the Chinese. They wouldn't place much faith in a strategic alliance, even if they went along with the pretence of one to buy some time of peace and for commercial reasons.

[Destro]

The fear the Indians had of China is not as strong as it used to be.

We were once deadly afraid of Red China but we made alliances with them during the Cold War didn't we?

[MrNatural]

..CHINA: Military Alliance With India in the Works...

STRATEGYPAGE.COM: Foreign Affairs Reporting in the Septic Tank ...

[Destro]

Kill the messenger!

[Tokhtamish]

Only North Korea seems to have any interest in being the ally of backwards, unstable Pakistan.

China has very intelligently decided that their interests are not served by backing losers. Besides, aside from China's support for Pakistan there is no real substantive quarrel between India and Pakistan.

[Destro]

China's support for Pakistan there is no real substantive quarrel between India and Pakistan. - did you mean China instead of Pakistan?

[Steel Wolf]

India could team up with China, who is teamed up with Russia and North Korea, who have ties to Middle Eastern governments, who have ties to Al Qaida, who has ties to various 'charities' in the U.S., who have contacts all throughout the U.S., and could KILL US ALL! Run for the hills! Oh, the humanity. < / DEBKA >

Zzzzz ... ZzZzzzz... Zzz..

Or mabye it was just all a silly dream. There's been talk of more team ups than a Marvel comic strip, and it has come to nothing. The Chinese/Russian alliance ground to an unceremonious halt, and the last two Axis of Evil members all pulling the old 'Duck Season' / 'Rabbit Season' routine with each other (with the shotgun wielding G.W. Fudd ready to blast either one).

Even the ugliness of the Axis of Weasls is only fur deep; Germany is slowly fallng out of orbit, and Russia could back out whenever the price becomes right.

To get wobbly in the knees because China and India are allegedly becoming 'allies' is foolish. They have little reason to do so, and very clear reasons to distrust each other. Bush divides and conquers better alliances than that one before breakfast.

[MrNatural]

Oops; didn't mean to seem to zing you, Destro. These really are interesting posts; kind of off the wall,
considering the state of affairs between China and India, but it's no harm done to hear from all points.

But I still don't think strategypage.com is enhancing their reputation of foreign affairs with a report like this.

[UnBlinkingEye]

ping - what happens when our engineering and IT depts are manned by citizens of a power that suddenly turns hostile to US

What happens when our corrupt elected officials turn hostile to American workers?

H-1B, L1, no tarriffs on outsourced work or products and corporate guidance of our 'representatives.'

[Tokhtamish]

Yes, you're right. Typo on my part.

This makes perfect rational sense. The earlier points about globalist US corporations ravaging American high tech to build up the technological base of India and China is geopolitical idiocy of the highest order.

[MrNatural]

Maybe after reading Maureen Dowd's latest, strategypage figured the Apocalypse was upon us: if she was going soft on W, anything could happen...

[Criminal Number 18F]

Well, they claim large swathes of each other's territory, for one thing. Any alliance with india would probably require the Chines to withdraw from their territorial seizures of '62, and I can't see them doing that.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

[Destro]

This has been in the works for sometime. Check out this scenario written by a Freeoer pre 9/11.

[Norse]

>China is our most serious enemy.

No way. China can hardly even be called a nation-state. The country is literally divided up into numerous states with separate armies and separate rulers. Think of it as a warlord system. Each state has around one to two million soldiers, all ultimately under separate military command. Each state has its own governor who basically has supreme authority.

The national Chinese governmental body has little power and can only bring together the different states if the states see the cause as common good. Unfortunately for them, there is much conflict between the states, stifling national unity.

[Sparta]

Both have impressive air forces, impressive armies, and expanding navies. China's military programme is years ahead of what the CIA predicted. (The J-10 fighter is operational two years ahead of schedule) India is also rebuilding its forces. The stage is being set for a multi-polar power confrontation for world dominance. The stakes this time with terrorism and easy access to WMD are much higher than the old Cold War.

[Poohbah]

Very interesting claim that the J-10 is operational; no one's actually SEEN one up close and personal yet.

[Sparta]

It's completed trials and is in service with one squadron

[MrNatural]

I guess anything can happen, but I'll still have to see it happen to believe it.
China is agressively expansionist and India is not blind to it. Why would India
want to make an alliance with a country they can't trust?

Well, time will tell. It's telling on me; I'm going to bed :)

[Destro]

China and India don't have to be on our standards. The Chinese and Indians have a two tier strategy. Tier one is to have a good enough force to project itself in the neighborhood. Unlike the USA these two powers have no need to have a force to go half way around the world to go to war for any reason.

Tier two would be for China and India to have enough nuclear deternece to keep America (and each other) at bay so they can have a clear hand in their near abroad (as the Russians term it).

[Filibuster_60]

A lot of J-10 pics have indeed been leaked onto the Internet.

[Poohbah]

Yes--a lot of PICTURES.

Except no one's actually seen one up close. All of the J-10 pictures I've seen (excluding the Photoshopped Eurofighters) were taken from a LONG way off and the plane was on the ground.

[Poohbah]

And there isn't a SARS problem, the Chinese media would never lie...

[Filibuster_60]

Actually the J-10 is already 5-7 years behind schedule but the Chinese have taken advantage of the delay to introduce more advanced features into the aircraft that wouldn't have been incorporated in the late 90s. The latest news is that 300 or so will be built by 2010. They'll probably be armed with the new PL-10, the Chinese equivalent of our highly capable AMRAAM.

It's quite likely that our estimates of Chinese military strength are a few years behind schedule. Our media still cites a figure of 350 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, but in fact the number has probably exceeded 400 since no later than 2001, and the buildup is continuing at an accelerated pace. At the same time it looks like Taiwan won't purchase a complete network of PAC-3 ABMs until 2008 - they're turned off by its $3 million unit cost, since China's missiles each cost less than $1 million.

Neither have Western media paid much attention to the strides that China has made in long-range artillery and cruise missiles.

[Filibuster_60]

You're a bit out of date there. Presently there's quite a few pics of the J-10 in flight, fairly close-up, and some of them display distinctive PRC markings, so they're obviously not Eurofighters.

[Filibuster_60]

Where did you ever see pictures of Chinese ICBMs taking off? We don't even know what exactly their new ICBMs look like - the missiles are always enclosed in the truck-mounted canister. So I guess there's no ICBM threat from China then?

[Orion78]

PING!

[Malsua]

India was the best counter the West had to China's new expansion.

Make no mistake, China is our most serious enemy.

I think there's a much stronger case against Russia. Russia has and continues to "Soviet" despite their recent outward overhaul. Read NEW LIES FOR OLD By Anatoliy Golitsyn. Look at the recent war games by Russia, simulated nuking of the USA. Their nuke programs continue to grow to this day. They are modernizing and expanding their nuke program. China on the other hand is propped up by trade with the USA. Russia is not. China has much more to lose. This is not a cursory opinion I've made. I've been reading all the articles posted here and elsewhere. I've read a number of books about this. I've also watched how the Russians behave. I've watched Russia let France step up to be the "stick poker" towards to US to deflect attention from them. The Russians have learned from previous PR disasters like ole Nikita Kruschov railing how "We will bury you". I'm not dismissing China as a threat, we're simply talking about threat levels here. China may be a 6, but Russia is an 8(on a 1-10 scale).

[The Pheonix]

To quote Henry Kissinger (who might had been quoting "God knows who):

"countries do not have permanent friends or permanent enemies,

Only permanet self-interests" (end of quote)


Meantime let the game of shifting alliances continue......

[The Pheonix]

On the other hand an essay in Asia-Times Online, April, suggested that the US, China, Japan and S.Korea may be stabilizing and consolitating the geo-political situation in East Asia, and India, although not situated in East Asia, but in South Asia, may be keen to join in the party, and not be left out of the.........

[Destro]

And it is because of foolish people like you Malusa that we will drive a non commie Russia away from us because people like you fight old wars in a new era. Read this scenario and see the potential results of our continued hostility to Russia (written months before 9/11).

[Malsua]

>>And it is because of foolish people like you Malusa that we will drive a non commie Russia away from us because people like you fight old wars in a new era. Read this scenario and see the potential results of our continued hostility to Russia (written months before 9/11). <<

Yes, call me foolish.

I'm not the one wargaming a nuclear war against the USA.

I'm not the one who makes statements "The only way to beat the USA is with nuclear weapons" as Generals in Russia stated recently.

I'm not the one upgrading my nuclear arsenal to include controllable ICBM Mirvs.

Fight old wars? Sure seems like Russia is fighting a new war with the USA. Russia has and continues to act against the interests of the USA and is _AT THIS MOMENT_ arming herself with better weapons than the USA. Russian nuke capability currently exceeds the USA, while we draw down. The foolish one is he who puts his gun away when his enemy aims more at him.

The foolish one is also he who believes the words and ignores the actions.

[Destro]

I am not saying Russia is an ally--but what you are saying is that Russia's hostility to the USA will be based on a commie plot to retake over the world. The Russians are doing what they are doing for many reasons but NOT ONE OF THEM is because they are secretly plotting to reintroduce communisim.

Welcome to the 21st century - looks a lot like the 19th century.

[The Red Zone]

If China and India are allies, and their people are embedded into the IT depts of every large US company, the US is not in good shape either.

Nobody will care any more than they care that China makes most of our teevee sets and computers.

[Destro]

These alliances are defensive in nature. The alliances are designed to probably ward off the USA's (if I can use this term) meddling in their foreign affairs.

[risk]

Despite what many people on FR think, I do not believe we have anything to worry about in way of military confrontaiton with China since they have a hyper-capitalist economy that is so economically linked with the West that if the Old Gaurd in Beihing dared confront us, the Shanghai new gaurd would rise up, armed with the battle cry of democracy and with the backing and money of the multi-national corporations.

Oh really? Are you dreaming? China is swinging toward fascism, harnessing its capital to fuel their arms race. The world is not yet safe for democratic capitalism. Not by far.

[risk]

China may be a 6, but Russia is an 8(on a 1-10 scale).

I agree with your numbers, and I'd add Jihadi conventional attacks at a 9 here. Destro, great post, by the way! If this is true, India watchers should begin to understand better why Americans are wary of their true intentions, ergo this India ping.

But we need to define what we mean by threat. I believe there are at least five kinds of threats facing us now, in order of immediacy:

1. Idelogical threats from Russian, Chinese, North Korean, and Arab/Islamic sponsors within our borders, via our media, leftist legal agendas, and anti-American sentiments. Follow the money; Marxists here are selling us down the river, some intentionally, some because "they want a better world."
2. Islamic-jihadi conventional attacks. (Lone sharp-shooter, arson, jetliner crashes, etc...)
3. Islamic-jihadi WMD attacks on the scale of 9/11 times 10, or much larger.
4. Sphere-of-influence warfare at "near abroad" locations to Russia and China. I must include North Korea and Iran in this.
5. Traditional state/state military threat, including ICBMs. Russia, China, and now a nuclear France/Germany-led EU may soon need to be included.

Immediacy is only one axis to graph. Long-term danger is another. We simply can't ignore the threat of ICBMs from our enemies while we fight near-abroad and "take the war on terror to their doorstep" battles.

I'm leaving the near-abroad issue with Korea to our president and his cabinet. I give them my full support for whatever they deem is necessary to crush the threat, and all the consequences that implies.

Moreover, I believe we may well face Jihadi WMD and/or conventional attacks here, so I urge you all to prepare your neighborhoods for self-supported emergency response. www.ready.gov isn't a joke. You may want to take it up a few notches from there. Remember, nobody from your state or federal teams will be there to help you for a good long while after the strike(s). Programs for neighborhood preparedness go a long way toward giving you and your neighbors something constructive to do if you find yourselves surviving the unthinkable. Please consider it!

Defense against the domestic threats outlined above includes being prepared not to panic when a whole city vanishes, and you find yourself at the edge of a smoking pit and need to protect your families.

And while we wait for a suitcase nuke to go off, we need to up the campaign against anti-Americanism here as much as we possibly can within the first amendment. Catching media lies helps. Every little thing helps.

Long may it wave.

[Tokhtamish]

The territories in dispute between China and India are uninhabited mountain areas of no real importance. Hardly Kashmir. Nothing that couldn't be settled in a businesslike manner.

China and India see the need to establish some kind of balance of power vis a vis the United States or at the very least improve their bargaining position. They can do this by working together.

[Poohbah]

I'm just of the opinion, having heard "The J-10 is coming Real Soon Now" since 1994 or so, that maybe we should wait for pictures taken by USN/USAF aircrews prior to saying "it's operational."

[Norse]

Nationalist or not, conflicting sources of authority all with different agendas makes their central government extremely weak. While the population may see themselves as Chinese, those in power make the rules and the decisions over the distribution of resources in their states and fight amongst the other states for national resources, causing conflict.

I can't say that I've been there but I did have a Chinese man who lived right next to me. We became good friends, his family was quite powerful in China, and he educated me about internal Chinese politics.

The point here is that economics (the struggle for resources) overrides nationalism...always.

Are you Mongolian? One thing I plan to do within the next ten or so years is to travel to Mongolia to become a Nomad for about two years. Please tell me what it would be like...would I be able to buy some animals...what are prices like? Is most of the land privately owned? Are trespassers welcome since it is a nomadic culture?