Iranian Alert -- DAY 19 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Please add me to your Iran ping list.

This is an under-reported story and one I'd welcome hearing more about.

In terms of why the US won't invade, the USA isn't in a position to force regime change in every desperate country in the world.

Has the UN said ONE WORD about this situation in Iran?

Thanks for pointing us to Khashayar's thread. Your posts there are the best reasons to support Iran in regime change, and the best reasons why this will take some time. This statement:

"...I think a regime change will likely come when your own military chooses to support a regime change."

is the key, I believe. When the military decides to openly support the protesters, then we will have something to work with. I have no way of knowing, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are CIA operatives and/or Special Operation Forces inside Iran at this time and, if so, I bet they are in touch with the military. Just as in Afghanistan, we need an organized force to work with.

Khashayar, welcome to Free Republic. I appreciate the risk you are taking in posting here, and thank you for doing so. Unfortunately, the media is slow to pick up on happenings in Iran, but the number of stories being reported is growing, especially on Fox New Channel. I look forward to seeing your posts, and I hope you will post as frequently as you can do so safely.

President Bush has stated his support for the people of Iran, and appears to be building a case on the nuclear issue. Once this story hits the media in a big way, you will have the support of the American people, as well. You already have the support of those who are following the protests.

In the meantime, keep demonstrating...keep posting here...invite your friends to post here. I pray that your general strike is a huge success, and I hope that it is the catalyst for your military to openly support you.

Stay safe!

"President Bush has stated his support for the people of Iran, and appears to be building a case on the nuclear issue."

I meant to add that Iran's support of terrorism is a huge issue, as well. This, and the nuclear weapons issue, is why the Iranian regime was named as a part of the Axis of Evil.

Sorry...I was distracted.;o)

For those who think that supporting the Iranian freedom fighters is not enough reason for the US to help them, here is some information about Iran's (Iranian government's) support of terrorism and being a direct threat to the US.

Bush did name as one of 3 countries on the Axis of Evil.

Check out this thread:

Evidence Fuels Iran Terror Debate
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/937311/posts?page=1

Four Iranian MPs launch sit-in

From journalist Shirzad Bozorgmehr

Saturday, June 28, 2003 Posted: 12:41 PM EDT (1641 GMT)

Iranian students protest in the hall of parliament on June 22.

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Four Iranian members of parliament launched a sit-in Saturday, protesting the government's treatment of university students who were arrested during recent demonstrations throughout Iran.

The protests, which began June 10 and lasted nine consecutive nights, called for reforms and increased freedoms in the strict Islamic government. Many turned violent, as government authorities and vigilantes attacked the protesters, who in some cases fought back.

Iran announced that more than 4,000 people were arrested during the protests, including about 800 students.

The four members of parliament taking part in the sit-in were all supported by student organizations in their election campaigns.

They began the sit-in in the parliament lobby at 1p.m. Saturday (5:00a.m.ET), and plan to remain for 48 hours.

The four risk losing their parliamentary seats, and could be prosecuted by the government, which has threatened to punish any members found to be acting in a fashion contradictory to the ruling clerics.

There was no immediate comment on the sit-in from the country's religious leaders or supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Fatemeh Haqiqatjoo, people's representative from Tehran and the only woman in the group of four, is an outspoken reformist who completed a university Ph.D. program last year.

The other three are Reza Yousdefian, representative from Shiraz in southern Iran, and two representatives from Tehran, Ali Akbar Musavi-Khoeini and Maysam Saeedi.

A fifth member of parliament, Ali Tajernia of the holy city of Mashhad, planned to join the four late Saturday, after returning form a trip to Germany.

Source

I posted this on another thread but may be of interest here give the topic of the moment...

"Why doesn't the USA come in militarily and support a regime change?" I have heard it many times from Iranians.

Reason #1: Our policy makers have been told repeatedly by Iranians leaders not to have a policy of invasion, but a policy of support of for the people of Iran to end the regime themselves.

Reason #2: It appears most fear that a US invasion of Iran would have the effect of fracturing the support for change that currently exists in your country. Most people tend to rally around their leaders, even bad ones, if they feel they are being invaded.

Reason #3: We have not yet made the case to the world that such an invasion would be legitimate. Our invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq both had international law on our side. The US may act if it feels it must, and is it building a case in the international community for this, ie. the nuclear weapons development issue.

Reason #4: There does not yet exist a leader or organization within Iran that we can work with if such a need were to arise. It would be much easier for us if we were invited in by a legitimate group under attack in Iran.

I think a regime change will likely come when your own military chooses to support a regime change. Many Iranians believe that Iran’s military will support the people’s desire for freedom, when push comes to shove. If and when the do, this will be the turning point. I can only assume that our government is attempting to encourage this in Iran just as we did in Iraq.

And another question came up that may stimulate some conversation here...

"Why should we send our sons and daughters to die in Iran?"

I don't think now is the time to send in our troops in, but there are a few reason's why we must consider it.

Reason#1: Ending the regime in Iran will make it easier for us to rebuild Iraq. The Iranian regime is undermining our efforts there. They have sent in thousands of militants back into Iraq for the purpose of pushing us out. If the regime ends, and Iraqi's hear how Iranians hated the Islamic Republic, the support for an Islamic Republic in Iran will wither up and die. The result fewer US soldiers would die in Iraq.

Reason #2: The Iranian regime has an aggressive program for the development of nuclear weapons and they are developing a missile delivery system with the help of the Chinese. This is the regime that has said that an attack with a nuclear weapon to destroy Israel, would be worth it, even if Israel were to retaliate and kill 10 million Iranians.

Reason #3: The end of the Iranian regime will end the support for Hezbollah, the terrorist organization that has killed more Americans than any other group prior to 911.

Reason #4: Iran is the largest supporter of terrorism in the world today, even giving refuge to Al Qeada.

Reason #5: In Iran we would have the support of nearly the entire nation, unlike Afghanistan and Iraq and would end Iranian efforts to undermine our work in both nations. Few US soldier would likely die in such a effort.

Reason #6: A change of the regime would send the loudest message to the middle-east that the change is permanent.

These are just a few of the reason why it would be in our best interest to support the people of Iran at this time.

DoctorZin

I am very supportive of the efforts of the Iranian people to regain their freedom. I understand that the anti-mullahs are the majority in your country, which has an army of its own, an army capable of supporting its countrymen should it choose to. Unless the Mullahs refuse to turn over the Al Qaeda members known to be in Iran, defy the international community on weapons of mass destruction or engage in bloodletting on the scale of Milosevic's I do not see the international community nor the US intervening.

I must add, in regret, that I have watched the US sacrifice its men and fortune repeatedly for the benefit of the oppressed--Germany and France come immediately to mind--only to be betrayed by the very people we have saved. Older but wiser.

* 27; very well said.

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/breaking_news/6192665.htm

Iran Student Leaders Say Crisis Deepening
ALI AKBAR DAREINI
Associated Press

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran announced that more than 4,000 people were arrested during a month of violent pro-reform protests, and a student leader warned on Saturday that the crackdown was only fueling hatred of the ruling clerics.

Iran's prosecutor general, Abdolnabi Namazi, said about 800 students and 30 key student leaders were among the 4,000 arrested as a result of the June 10-14 protests, the state-run daily newspaper Iran reported Saturday.

Namazi said about 2,000 people remained in jail.

Authorities had earlier said only 520 people - mostly "hooligans" - had been detained.

"The confirmation of 4,000 arrests shows how insincere the rulers are and how the crisis has deepened in Iran," student leader Saeed Allahbadashti told The Associated Press.

Also Saturday, four reformist lawmakers began a 48-hour sit-in inside parliament to protest the "violent and illegal continuing arrest of students."

The recent protests, the largest in months, began with students demonstrating against plans to privatize universities then snowballed into broader displays of opposition to Iran's hard-line clerical establishment, led by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The demonstrations largely ended after the deployment of hundreds of security forces and the unleashing of pro-clergy thugs - armed with knives and batons - to attack protesters.

Allahbadashti, one of few student leaders not imprisoned during the protests, said the establishment had lost its legitimacy through the crackdown.

"The judicial authorities are openly lying to the nation. First, they said few hooligans been arrested. Now, they confirm the arrest of 800 students. They are buying only greater hatred from the people whose call for change has been ignored," he said.

Meanwhile, authorities are trying to prevent a new round of student protests to mark the fourth anniversary of a July 9, 1999 attacks on Tehran University dormitories by pro-clerical militants.

Those attacks killed one student, injured at least 20 others and triggered six days of nationwide anti-government protests, the worst since the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the pro-U.S. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Authorities have banned any marches to commemorate the raid. "An incident took place a few years back and there is no necessity to mark the anniversary," Namazi said, according to the Iran newspaper.

Students have vowed to defy the ban and warned that their accumulated wrath was about to explode.

In a gesture of support for students, lawmakers Fatemeh Haqiqatjou, Ali Akbar Mousavi Khoeini, Meysam Saeidi and Reza Yousefian began their sit-in protest at parliament.

"We are here to protest the very inappropriate arrests of students, with guns pointed at their throats by unidentified agents, including some students who were not part of recent protests," Haqiqatjou told a news conference before the sit-in.

Haqiqatjou, one of 11 female lawmakers in the 290-seat parliament, said at least 30 more students were missing Saturday. "More names are added every few hours while unannounced arrests of students continue in provincial cities," she said.

Khoeini said the judiciary prevented lawmakers from visiting detained students. "We want to talk freely to detained students without interrogators, the judge and the prosecutor. But judiciary officials are preventing this," he said.

Protesters have long focussed their anger on Iran's unelected hard-line clerics, while supporting President Mohammad Khatami, who was elected by a landslide on promises of delivering social, political and economic reforms. But this month's student-led protests also denounced Khatami for failing to fulfill his promises.

An Iranian Prostitute's Electronic Plea for Help

Commentary, Behrouz Saba,
Pacific News Service, Jun 27, 2003

Editor's Note: In an online diary and radio interview, an Iranian woman selling herself to survive documents her ordeal and the plight of many women in Iran. The student rebellion against Iran's clerical government, the author writes, could change her fate for the better.

Iranian weblogs (Internet diaries), often playful or profane, have become an effective means for the young to vent their anger against the regime. A weblog called Fahesheh (Farsi for prostitute), on which a woman details her descent into prostitution, may at first seem like a sly "blogger's" joke. But it is deadly serious, a shocking testament to the increasingly unbearable living conditions inside Iran.

The prose of the woman who calls herself Sanaz is casual and intimate. At first reading like soft porn, it progresses into finely observed descriptions of young Iranians' sexual practices away from the eyes of the morality police. It then evolves into a stark, frightening picture of a growing number of Iranian women who, just to survive, offer sexual favors for money.

On the Internet, millions pose as people they aren't, but any trace of incredulity vanishes with a click on the link to an audio interview Sanaz gave to the Farsi service of state-owned Radio Sweden.

Her voice is soft, articulate, streetwise and infinitely sad. Sometimes fighting back tears, responding to questions skillfully and sensitively posed by an Iranian woman, she encapsulates into a few minutes the story of an Iran where living is all but unaffordable for most people, officials high and low are irredeemably corrupt, heroin is cheap and widely available and even married women sometimes sell themselves to feed their families.

"If you go to a welfare committee as a single woman," Sanaz says, "they give you 750 (7,500 toomans, about $7.50) a month. With that you can buy two kilos of meat."

When arrested by the police on prostitution charges, the usual outcome in Iran is a night spent in bed with the arresting officer. "I also had to become a girlfriend of the judge who handled my divorce file," Sanaz says. She divorced her husband after he became addicted to heroin.

The police, according to Sanaz, also recruit young women for the wealthy and powerful clergy. Her most harrowing tale is of her friend who went through this process and was tortured by her client. "He had a bucket of ice next to the bed -- how can one describe it? It's shameful. They killed so many of our young and now they do these things. One becomes ashamed of being an Iranian. ... He gave her 50,000 toomans ($50) ... then brandished a gun and said if you don't take it I'll shoot you and bury you right here in the garden."

She ends her interview with a plea, "If you (Iranian women abroad) can end this situation, we will kiss your hands and feet."

Iranian students who staged a week of demonstrations in June are intent on ending "this situation" from within Iran.

Washington may desire "regime change" in Tehran, but if an Iraq model intervention led to prolonged civil war or hit-and-run guerrilla warfare -- precisely what is shaping up in Iraq today -- Iran could become another failed state in the region, a breeding ground and home for Al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, young, bright and increasingly emboldened students are planning the downfall of the ayatollahs their own way. If they succeed, they too risk Iran's future if they choose to retaliate brutally and endlessly against their old rulers. But perhaps the day will come when Sanaz will find an answer to her prayers.

"I have a (high school) diploma," Sanaz says, "but I understand a great deal. I wish I didn't." She needs not to feel this way. The whole world is listening.

A native of Iran, PNS contributor Behrouz Saba (BehrouzSA@aol.com) writes widely on Middle Eastern and American social, political and cultural issues.

http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=f42f9793a2746e014fa78ae2620f6b9f

This is an important article by one of the middle-east's leading journalists. I highly recommend taking the time to read this. -- DoctorZin

IRAN'S SEEDS OF LIBERTY

By AMIR TAHERI for the NY Post

June 27, 2003 -- AS the Iranian opposition to the mullahs gathers momentum, a chorus of self-styled experts in the United States is trying to belittle the pro-democracy movement, presenting the Khomeinist regime as a solid and urging Washington to seek détente with Tehran.

These "experts" present the pro-democracy movement as a student revolt with no popular base, no program and no leaders. In fact, it has a strong popular base. Its support cuts across class, religious, ideological and generational boundaries.

* Over the past six months, Iran has seen dozens of industrial strikes in which urban workers came out with exactly the same demands as the students. Workers at the nation's largest gas refinery, in Agha-Jari, and in the Mahshahr petrochemical complex (the biggest in the Middle East) have also organized symbolic walkouts in support of democratic demands.

* Teachers have engaged in a series of strikes, One last month closed 50 percent of the schools for several days.

* In the past three weeks, sections of the traditional bazaars in Tabriz, Rasht, Isfahan and Shiraz have also organized one-day shutdowns in solidarity with the students.

* Even the clerical establishment is broadly supportive of the pro-democracy movement. There are three Grand Ayatollahs in Iran today: Hassan Tabatabi Qomi, Hussein-Ali Montazeri and Muhammad Sadeq Ruhani. All three have endorsed the movement and publicly called for an end to Khomeinist tyranny.

* Scores of lesser ayatollahs, including many who once worked with the regime, are also calling for its overthrow. Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri-Khorramabadi, the main spiritual leader of Iran's second most populous city Isfahan, has described the regime as "an enemy of Islam and humanity."

* So strong is clerical opposition to the Khomeinist regime that the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei has been unable to visit Qom, the theological center of Iranian Shi'ism, for almost a year. Today, there are more mullahs and students of theology in prison in Iran, on political charges, than any other stratum of society.

* Iran's intellectual elite is even more solidly behind the pro-democracy movement. In the past three weeks, dozens of petitions signed by writers, poets, novelists, filmmakers, artists and academics have been published in support of the students' demands. Today, not a single prominent Iranian intellectual remains in the Khomeinist camp.

* The movement has support within the establishment itself. Almost two-thirds of the members of the Islamic Majlis (Parliament) have published a petition demanding constitutional change to transform Iran from a despotic-theocratic regime into a democratic one. This is especially significant, for all candidates for the Majlis must win the approval of the state-security services and the "Supreme Guide" before they can stand for election.

* The movement also has the support of several members of President Muhammad Khatami's Cabinet plus many of his closest advisors. (Khatami himself has tried to sit on the fence in the hope of acting as an interface between the regime and its opponents. But some analysts believe that he may have become marginalized in the process.)

As for lacking a program and a leadership, the movement has the first and is developing the second.

Its main program is to force the regime to accept constitutional change through a popular referendum. The idea is that parts of the Constitution that contradict the principle of people's sovereignty - notably by giving unlimited powers to the "Supreme Guide" and a number of un-elected bodies - should be struck out. Khomeini's outlandish claim that a single man should exercise power on behalf of God and, when necessary, even against the will of the people, will be consigned to the ashcan of history.

The idea of reforming the Constitution has been at the center of debate in Iran, and in the Iranian community abroad, for years. Scores of seminars have been held and countless papers and articles published on the subject. There is broad consensus among Iranians of all shades of opinions that peaceful change is still possible and that the regime, weakened by its contradictions, cannot maintain its despotic hold on power for much longer.

No one knows how much longer the regime may manage to hang on to power. One thing, however, is certain: It now faces a strong, growing and determined opposition that will not simply fade away.

For any regime to be overthrown, several conditions must exist simultaneously. Some are already present, at least in part, in the Iranian context.

The regime must lose its legitimacy: This is already largely the case in Iran. The regime lost its initial revolutionary legitimacy by crushing most of the other forces that had coalesced to overthrow the Shah, and by establishing a narrowly based theocracy. But it has also lost its religious legitimacy by persecuting many leading religious leaders.

A substantial section of the regime's original constituency must part ways with it: This is also happening. As already noted many members of the Majlis and Cabinet have publicly taken side with the pro-democracy movement, as have thousands of technocrats who have served the regime over the years.

The regime " must lose the support of at least part of the coercive forces at its disposal: This too is happening in Iran. The regular army (which the Khomeinists never trusted) will certainly not turn its guns against the people to preserve the present bankrupt system. Even the Revolutionary Guard, created by Khomeini to counter-balance the army, can no longer be trusted.

Earlier this year a senior Guard commander was dismissed after he made it clear he would not shoot unarmed protestors. Some 30 junior commanders have been moved to "less sensitive" positions in the remoter provinces. It is not at all certain that the regime would be able to count on the loyalty of all the guard units in a major confrontation with the people.

An alternative leadership must emerge: It begins by exercising moral authority and, then, develops into a government-in-waiting.

This last condition is not yet present in Iran. But some of the elements that might form it are identifiable. These include a number of clerics who have broken with the regime and fought it in the name of democracy. To these will be added scores of technocrats, members of parliament, journalists, university teachers and students, business managers and trade union leaders.

Right now the pro-democracy movement has a strong cadre of leaders at local levels. A movement with no leaders would not have been able to mobilize hundreds of thousands of people in more than 20 cities to come out in simultaneous demonstrations and with identical slogans and demands. As the struggle intensifies, leadership is bound to emerge at the national level also.

Both President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair are right in their public expression of support for the pro-democracy movement in Iran. This is the least that the great democracies can do for those who are risking their lives by fighting one of the world's most vicious regimes in the name of values that the American and European peoples claim as their own.

Email: amirtaheri@benadorassociates.com

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/59222.htm

Exiled leader poised to mount popular revolt against Iran's mullahs

The Sunday Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 06/29/03 | Damien Mcelroy
Posted on 06/28/2003 5:58 PM PDT by Pokey78

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/937415/posts

I think in this country we should show some visible support and solidarity. I remember well the events in Poland and how much our support meant to the Poles during the Solidarity movement. We must do the same for the Iranians. I don't have the resources to make and/or distribute stuff, but certainly we could come up with something simple that people could make by hand, such as a ribbon that folks could wear.
Anyone with a website could also show a banner.
It's too late tonight, but tomorrow I'll make one and upload it so folks can download it and display on their own sites, with a link back to the Iranian pro-democracy website.

From BobtheNailer...

The regular army (which the Khomeinists never trusted) will certainly not turn its guns against the people to preserve the present bankrupt system. Even the Revolutionary Guard, created by Khomeini to counter-balance the army, can no longer be trusted.

Earlier this year a senior Guard commander was dismissed after he made it clear he would not shoot unarmed protestors. Some 30 junior commanders have been moved to "less sensitive" positions in the remoter provinces. It is not at all certain that the regime would be able to count on the loyalty of all the guard units in a major confrontation with the people.

Here it tis, ladies and gents. Without the support of the military, NO REGIME can withstand a grassroots widespread revolution.

The historic and strategic implications of this are beyond calculation. Syria is already between Iraq and a hard place (pun intended). The Bekaa valley is asking for a cleansing of Hezbollah and Hamas. We may even get the high ranking Al Qaeda supposedly in Iranian detention and they are the big ones.

If Iran falls to a popular democracy movement, the whole middle east changes overnight. Write your congressmen, call them, email them.

The Iranians need our support and they need it NOW.July 9 is just around the corner, so are tens of thousands of former Iraqi weapons, the Iranians can defend themselves with, against the foreign mercenaries who make up the sole remaining loyal force mechanism for the current ruling elite.

BTTT!

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