Mexicans to test voting power

MEXICO CITY – Armando Hernández is going to the polls tomorrow to help elect a new Congress because he's irritated that so little has changed in the three years after President Vicente Fox's historic election.

"Promises. Promises. Promises," said the 40-year-old corn farmer in Michoacan state. "Everything is the same."

But Hernández isn't giving up on Mexico's experiment with democracy. Like millions of Mexicans from the impoverished south to the affluent north, he hopes his vote can make a difference.

"I think we still lack a lot before we have the democracy we want. But we are beginning to fix things," said Hernández, who intends to cast his ballot against Fox's National Action Party, or PAN.

People are so disappointed with the pace of change that they probably won't give the PAN the majority it needs to break a stalemate in Congress and push through Fox's reforms before he leaves office in 2006.

But the disillusionment is tempered by their belief in their newfound power to influence Mexico's political future.

As voters prepare to elect six governors and 500 members to the lower house of Congress, the changes that have come to this country of more than 100 million people are increasingly evident.

In interviews conducted in five states, voters rarely complained about stolen votes and electoral fraud, as they routinely did during the 71-year rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. Parties that don't do their jobs will be booted out of office, voters say.

"Now the parties realize that democracy exists," said Alejandro González, 28, an accountant in Monterrey, the capital of the economically powerful border state of Nuevo Leon. "At any moment they can be out."

Freed of the controlling hand of the PRI, Mexico's political landscape no longer is predictable.

In Nuevo Leon, the PRI is poised to wrest the statehouse from Fox's party. In the border state of Sonora, polls suggest the PRI may lose the governor's race for the first time.

"People are saying 'Help me. I want a better job. I want better education. I don't want to migrate to the United States. Help me,' " political analyst Primitivo Rodríguez said.

"The voters want the country to move and they are going to punish Fox and his party if they don't know how to negotiate solutions to those problems. But they are also going to punish the opposition," the analyst said.

Complex democracy In Mexico, the old rules of campaigning have been replaced by grueling and often disorganized attempts to reach voters. "Democracy is difficult, cruel, complicated," said Sergio Aguayo, an academic and human-rights activist running for Congress on the Mexico Posible ticket. "The game is so expensive and the bets are so high. It's a risk, but that's democracy."

As election day neared, top political figures jetted across the country to pump their fists in the air and promise change to throngs of voters.

The obscure National Socialist Party hung posters depicting an apparently nude woman wrapped in a serape. "Remember me," the poster says.

A party calling itself Convergence simply urged Mexicans to "vote orange," because its campaign literature is decorated with that color.

In all, 5,500 candidates from 11 parties are running for Congress. Not surprisingly, voters are confused.

"There are so many new candidates that I don't know whether to vote or not," said Carlos Oneda, 58, a retired government worker in the Pacific Coast city of Juchitan.

About 50 percent of the 64 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots in tomorrow's election. Although that's a high turnout by U.S. standards – just 36 percent of registered U.S. voters cast ballots in the last midterm election – it's considered low in Mexico. The 1997 midterm election had a turnout of 63 percent.

Allegations of political wrongdoing by Mexico's two largest parties – the PAN and the PRI – have turned off some voters.

"We've just been shifting in the past two months from one minor scandal to another," said Federico Estevez, a political analyst in Mexico City. "Never policy. Never substance."

The presidents of Mexico's major parties insisted in separate interviews that they've worked tirelessly to mend damaged relationships with voters. Instead of trying to impress the opposition by staging massive rallies, they're opting for smaller gatherings where people can get closer to the candidates.

At a sparsely attended rally in Tabasco state, Democratic Revolution Party President Rosario Robles boasted that she has traveled nearly 25,000 miles on Mexican roads, from "pueblo to pueblo, municipality to municipality, district to district."

Despite her efforts, Robles said it's clear voters won't give any of the parties what they most desperately seek – a majority in Congress.

"During the 2000 presidential campaign, people believed deeply in the possibility of change and they turned out to vote in a decisive manner," said Robles, whose party is known as the PRD. "That confidence was betrayed, and now the disbelief has spread to all the political parties."

A call for change Nowhere is the disillusionment more evident than in Nuevo Leon, where polls show Fox's party running at least 16 percentage points behind the PRI in the governor's race. After six years under a lackluster PAN government, the state's voters say they want change.

"Since the PAN took over, there has been a wave of assassinations. They have allowed drug trafficking to grow," said Alberto Marin, 47, who sells candy and cigarettes in downtown Monterrey. "They talk about beautifying the city when people don't have enough to eat.

"We wanted a total change to improve the situation in our country. But we see with profound sadness that it didn't happen. I voted for Fox. For change. I'm going to give the PRI another chance."

A victory in Nuevo Leon, which accounts for about 7 percent of the Mexico's gross national product, would signal a strong comeback for the PRI.

In March, the Federal Electoral Institute fined the party $91 million for allegedly funneling money from Pemex, the national oil monopoly, into the party's 2000 presidential campaign. The PRI, which once had access to the government's riches, has been forced for the first time to ask grass-roots supporters for money.

While the PRI once campaigned in high style – paying for rooms in luxury hotels, hosting sumptuous luncheons and handing out expensive gifts to supporters – it now houses campaign staffers in budget motels. Sometimes, they sleep on the campaign bus.

"If we have a reason to fight back, a reason for unity, then we can accomplish things," PRI President Roberto Madrazo said as his bus rumbled along a Michoacan highway. "We still haven't made the complete change that we aspire to, but we are beginning to win back confidence, to win support, to learn a lesson from the 2000 election."

Natividad González, the PRI's candidate for governor in Nuevo Leon, symbolizes his party's ability to rebound from defeat. González, 54, who lost the governor's race six years ago to the PAN, has a decisive lead in the polls.

"In Mexican democracy, we can see the possibility of a comeback," González said.

Giving Fox a chance PAN leaders are worried that Mexicans aren't giving them a chance to deliver on their promises.

"We just began the process of change in the year 2000," said Mauricio Fernández, the PAN's gubernatorial candidate in Nuevo Leon, in the waning days of his campaign. "We don't know where we're going or how long it's going to take. The Mexican Revolution lasted 20 years, and that was with violence and bullets. Now, people want Fox to change the country overnight."

PAN President Felipe Bravo Mena insists the Fox government has made significant changes. Most important, he said, it ended the PRI's grip on Mexico.

According to Bravo Mena, Fox has kept the economy under control, with dollar reserves remaining high and the peso holding strong. His administration has halted a steady, 10-year climb in the number of poor people. The government last month also pushed through Mexico's first freedom of information act.

"The opposition has exploited the fact that in 21/2 years, nothing spectacular has happened," Bravo Mena said after the PAN's final campaign rally in Monterrey. "But this government isn't going for spectacular things. It's going for profound changes. It is evident that a structure that lasted to 70 years cannot be changed in 21/2 years. That doesn't happen in any country in the world."

Bravo Mena still holds out hope that Mexican voters will give his party a congressional majority.

But even if the Congress remains splintered and change comes slowly, Monterrey resident Arturo Muñoz said he won't give up on Fox and his party.

"I'm glad I gave my vote to Fox. I'd give it to him again and again," said Muñoz, a specialist in plant diseases. "We lived under an authoritarian system for 70 years. This is a true democracy."

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the print edition has two photos. remarkable is that both are of whites.

mexico is very racist. dark-skinned people that you see as immigrants do not get a chance. that's why they immigrate.

there is little social mobility. mexico is run by a couple dozen billionaires, a thousand manorial class members, and professionals--all european looking.

sounds good.

but the reality is, the last time they had a revolution down there, a large group of them moved into the united states in order to escape the killing.

there were few mexicans north of the border until the mexican revolution. afterwards, many. of course, that was long enough ago that they have assimilated.

also, during the reagan administration the threat of a revolution in mexico was real.

the reagan administration was meanwhile fighting the wars with the communists in central america. the last thing they wanted was a communist insurgency on our borders.

therefore, the reagan administration looked the other way on illegal immigration. and, at the time the american birthrate was low, due to the feminists' advocacy of abortion and birth control and women in the work place.

the reagan administration sent tanks and other materiels to the mexican government.

in sum, mexico is what it is--an oligarchy run by a few billionaires, a thousand manorial families, and professionals, all light skinned. mexico is very racist. there is no upward mobility for the dark-skinned indian mixed races. that's why they come here, for opportunities.

the united states plays a large part in preventing a revolution in mexico.

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