Iranian Alert -- DAY 43 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movment in Iran from being reported.

From jamming satellite broadcasts, to prohibiting news reporters from covering any demonstrations to shutting down all cell phones and even hiring foreign security to control the population, the regime is doing everything in its power to keep the popular movement from expressing its demand for an end of the regime.

These efforts by the regime, while successful in the short term, do not resolve the fundamental reasons why this regime is crumbling from within.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to join us here, post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Additional lists of websites with news on Iran from
RFE/RL Iran Report Vol. 6, No. 30, 21 July 2003

ANGRY REACTION TO TEHRAN'S INTERFERENCE WITH WEBSITES. Iran's Post, Telegraph, and Telephone Ministry announced that the blocking of the websites persianblog.com and blogspot.com, both hosting sites for personal-publication websites, were caused by a private company's mistake, "Yas-i No" reported on 14 July. The ministry added that it has ordered the company, Pars Online, to lift the filters and be more careful in the future.

As noted in iraniangirl.blogspot.com about the blocking of
the sites, "They always knew that Iranian weblogs can be their first enemy [and] they couldn't stand so many pages in the Internet without their control written by Iranians [and] were always searching for a way; at last they did the worst [and] blocked all of them!"

Meanwhile, students at Amir Kabir University have threatened
to take legal action against President Mohammad Khatami's
government for blocking Iranians' access to their website
(www.akunews.org), dpa reported on 14 July. The students' letter noted, "We regret that access to many pornographic sites is easier than that of an acknowledged and registered students' group."

The Amir Kabir University website is not the only one that
provides news that irritates the Iranian government. The following are the addresses for several other websites that provide news and analysis of Iranian affairs (these sites are mentioned only for informational purposes and this does not imply endorsement of them):
http://www.alliran.com, http://www.daftartahkimnews.persianblog.com,
http://www.daneshjoo.org, http://www.daneshjooyan.org,
http://www.emrooz.org, http://www.hammihan.com,
http://www.iran-azad.de, http://www.jebhemelliiran.org,
http://www.manshoor.org, http://www.mehr.org,
http://www.mellimazhabi.org, http://www.mihan.net,
http://www.nehzat.org, http://www.nehzateazadi.org,
http://www.newsgooya.com, http://www.noandishan.org,
http://www.parspejvak.com, http://www.peiknet.com,
http://www.peykeiran.com, http://www.radiofarda.com,
http://www.roshangari.com, http://www.rouydad.com,
http://www.saanei.com, http://www.tahkimdemocracy.com,
http://www.voanews.com/persian and http://www.7sang.com. (Bill Samii)

A FRIGHTENED IRAN CENSORED LEADER’S THREATS AGAINST ISRAEL

By Safa Haeri

PARIS-TEL AVIV 22 July (IPS) Urged urgently by some 300 Iranian political activists, lawmakers, scholars and intellectuals, a controversial passage of a speech delivered to the Iranian Armed Forces by Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i in which he said Israel could be a target of Iranian new missiles had been deleted from all Iranian media, internet sites and news agencies, including the official IRNA and the independent ISNA, run by the students.

In the address, pronounced Sunday during ceremonies marking the transfer of the newly tested Shahab-3 ballistic missile to the Revolutionary Guards Air Force, Mr. Khameneh'i said Iran could target Israel, in defence of the Palestinian cause.

The Shahab-3 has a range of over 1.300 kilometres and can reach Israel as well as American forces stationed in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but also parts of southern Europe and Russia.

"The office of the leader instructed Judge Sa’id Mortazavi to order all Iranian media, without any exception, to delete that part of the speech, since it has already caused an international outrage against Iran", one journalist told Iran Press Service

"Today, the Iranian nation and armed forces ... is prepared to stand up to the enemy with a firm resolve anywhere. Today, we can target Israel, defending Palestinian cause and also Lebanon", Khameneh’i said, quoted by the State-run, conservatives-controlled radio and television.

A senior Israeli intelligence official, quoted Tuesday by Israeli newspaper "Ha’aretz", has warned that Iran's upgrading of its Shihab-3 long-range missile is aimed, first and foremost, at giving Tehran the ability to strike at Israel.

The official said that the chances of Iran firing a missile at Israel were low for now, but that Tehran's announcement that the ground-to-ground missile was operational should set off warning bells.

"A new element has been added to the Iranian's ability to threaten Israel. We shouldn't ignore, either, the statement attributed to Ali Khamenei, that the missile is part of the answer to the Palestinian problem," the senior intelligence official added.

"Reacting to the menace, Israel’s Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz told the ruling Likud Knesset (Israel’s parliament) faction that Israel is prepared to counter the threat from Iranian Shahab-3 missiles.

The Iranian-origin Mr. Mofaz assured the Israeli public that the Arrow missile can effectively defend against the Shahab-3, adding that he was in contact with American and other international officials who are helping Israel deal with the Iranian threat.

"We're taking all steps necessary to counter the threat as much as possible", Mofaz told reporters. "Israel has the necessary means to respond defensively, as well as deterrent capability. The Shihab-3 and other projects reveal that Iran is eager to achieve non-conventional and even nuclear capability, but Israel is prepared".

Israel’s Foreign Affairs minister Silvan Shalom, meeting 25 counterparts from the European Union Monday in Brussels, had also taken the issue, calling on them to join the United States and Israel in putting more pressures over the Islamic Republic to abandon its programmes for developing nuclear-based arms that he said is primarily targeting the Jewish State.

Tehran denies the charges, insisting that the project has a purely civilian nature, aimed at generating electricity.

The European Union issued its strongest warning so far to Iran about its nuclear programmes and human rights on Monday and said it would review ties with Tehran in September in the light of its behavior.

EU foreign ministers expressed "increasing concern" about Iran's nuclear program and reaffirmed that closer economic relations depended on Iran making progress in four areas of concern -- human rights, fighting terrorism, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and its attitude to the Middle East peace process.

"The Council decided to review future steps of the cooperation between EU and Iran in September in view of further developments particularly with regard to the second report of IAEA Director General (Mohamed) ElBaradei, the IAEA evaluations and the possible conclusions of the Board of Governors of this Agency", they said in a statement.

They also branded the violent death of Canadian-Iranian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, killed during interrogations, a crime and said Iran had an obligation under international law to prosecute those responsible.

The 15-nation EU is negotiating a trade and cooperation agreement with the Islamic Republic but has clearly linked conclusion of the accord to progress on its political demands.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said Iran had to make a strategic choice to sign up to more intrusive, no-notice inspections of its nuclear program, cooperate in the fight against terrorism and improve its human rights record.

"Iran has to know clearly what we expect of it, and what it can expect from us if it meets our expectations", Villepin told a news conference.

Israeli Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lt. General Moshe Ya’alon told senior officials during his visit to Washington last week that Iran is currently attempting to fill the vacuum left by Saddam Hoseyn’s regime by supporting terror organizations and Palestinian suicide bombers.

President George W. Bush accuses Syria and Iran of backing terrorists who undermine peace process U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday accused Syria and Iran of supporting "terrorists" who undermine Middle East peace efforts and said countries continuing the practice would be held accountable.

"Today Syria and Iran continue to harbor and assist terrorists. This behavior is completely unacceptable and states that support terror will be held accountable", Bush said at a news conference at his Texas ranch with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, one of his European supporter of war in Iraq.

Bush has branded Iran - along with North Korea and the Iraq of ousted President Saddam Hussein - as a member of an "axis of evil" that threatens to spread terrorism. Washington charges Iran is not doing enough against members of the militant Al-Qaida network.

"Ha’aretz" reported this month that the missile's recent testing was its most successful of seven or eight launches during the past five years.

The last time Iran declared a test of the missile was in May 2002 when Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani said the country conducted a test to "enhance the power and accuracy of (the) Shahab-3 missile."

The missile technology is allegedly based on North Korea's No Dong surface-to-surface missile, but Iran says it is entirely locally made. "Shahab" means shooting star in Farsi.

U.S. intelligence officials have said Iran can probably fire several Shahab-3's in an emergency, but that it has not yet developed a completely reliable missile. ENDS IRAN MISSILE 22703

http://www.iran-press-service.com/

Middle East

Enemies from within: Iran and Saudi Arabia
By Ehsan Ahrari
Jul 22, 2003

Iran and Saudi Arabia are edging closer to political instability and even cataclysmic change. In the case of Iran, the United States prefers a change of regime, but not for Saudi Arabia. However, regime change might be the eventual outcome in both countries for reasons that are essentially similar: the enemies of regimes are inside the borders. But there are also certain important aspects of dissimilarity in both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Islamic revolution occurred in Iran in 1979 as a powerful protest against a highly corrupt and equally ruthless regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlevi. At the risk of oversimplification, it should be stated that the vanguards of that revolution at the very outset made two significant mistakes whose ramifications might bring about its end.

First, they created a constitution which established the Vilayat-e-Faqih (rule of the clergy). As such, it made the head clergy (the Supreme Leader) both infallible and beyond reproach. The concept of infallibility is essentially an anti-Islamic concept, since from theological perspectives no one is infallible, save God. At the same time, the notion of the Vilayat-e-Faqih sowed the seeds for the establishment of a theological dictatorship, which was going to be as exclusionist of the common people as the monarchy that it replaced.

The constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran is fundamentally anti-democratic in the sense that it allocates too much power to the Supreme Leader and his handpicked cronies. Only a cursory review of the Iranian constitution makes it clear that it has created an absolute dictatorship of the Supreme Leader. The Iranian parliament is held in check by the Council of Guardians, a body that has power to "examine all laws passed by the parliament to determine their compatibility with [the] Sharia or Islamic law". The Supreme Leader appoints half of the members of this council, and the second half are recommended by the head of the judiciary and confirmed by parliament. The radically conservative nature of the council may be underscored by the fact that it has been known to strike down up to 40 percent of the laws passed by the government.

Another powerful body is the Assembly of Experts, which elects the Supreme Leader from within its ranks and has no record of challenging any of his decisions. Under the Islamic Republic, Iran might be the only country where the president of the republic does not control its armed forces. On this issue as well, the Supreme Leader has ultimate authority.

The second mistake of the Iranian constitution is that there are virtually no institutional constraints on the authority of the Supreme Leader or provisions to create some balance between his authority and that of the president of the Republic, who is an elected official. The Iranian constitution makes this elected official - indeed the entire executive branch - subordinate to the Supreme Leader. This theological dictatorship of the Supreme Leader, along with his cohorts in the Assembly of Experts, Council of Guardians, Expediency Council and the judiciary have become the chief enemies from within of the survival of the Islamic Republic. It is befuddling, then, why Iran even pretends to be a democracy.

Iran is a country in which about 70 percent of the population is below the age of 30. It is within this age group that the unemployment rate is reported to be hovering around 24 percent. It seems that Iran's ruling class and its young population are focused on entirely different agendas. Within the rank and file of the ruling establishment, the issues of contention are liberalization of the government (rather, the denial of it) and strict interpretation of Islam. The youth of Iran, on the contrary, like young people anywhere else in the world, are driven by their collective ambitions of getting quality education so that they can get promising jobs and a good standard of living. Many are also enticed by the consumerism and free lifestyle of the West. But the hardliners' insistence on making their lust for the "good life" a crime, becomes just another reason why the feeling of alienation regarding the Islamic government is reported to be mounting among young Iranians.

While the hardline ayatollahs see popular demands for liberalization as a threat to their authority, the liberal or moderate clerics do not fare that much better among Iranian youth because of their unwillingness to challenge the hardliners. The hardliners in Iran have learned nothing from the miserable legacy of the regime of Reza Pahlevi, its brutality, and, above all, its repudiation to compromise. By wittingly or unwittingly emulating those traits of the previous regime, the hardline Islamic clerics are pushing their rule toward the same fate.

The United States is on the sidelines of this brewing struggle in Iran, but it is not a disinterested party. As much trouble as the Bush administration is currently encountering, stemming from regime change in Iraq, it would still welcome a regime change in Iran if it was carried out by the Iranian youth, a la the Islamic revolution of 1979.

The pro-democracy elements are showing their interests through radio broadcasts from the comfortable environs of Los Angeles, urging the Iranian youth to overthrow the ayatollahs. Like Iraqi expatriates in the United States and Britain, the pro-democracy groups are supported by the American neo-conservatives. The Mujahideen-e-Khalq has their own fight with the Islamic regime. They have even approached the Bush administration to use them as a proxy force to carry out regime change in Iran, much like the Northern Alliance was used to dismantle the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Despite the disparate endeavors of these groups to oust the Islamic government from Iran, the chief threat to that country's stability, in the final analysis, stems from the enemies from within - the hardline ayatollahs who would rather be swept away by the winds of change than bend and survive.

The problem in Saudi Arabia is similar to that in Iran in the sense that the legitimacy of the regime faces challenges from within. But the challenge to the stability of Saudi Arabia stems from a constant pull and push between the forces of Islamic orthodoxy and the nexus between militant orthodoxy and al-Qaeda. The general understanding is that the support of that terrorist organization comes from a number of Sunni Muslim clerics and the population at large. However, since Saudi Arabia is a closed society, it is well nigh impossible to make even a reasonable judgment about the actual number of these supporters. There is little doubt about the strength of their commitment, though. They will go to any extreme to fulfill their objectives of ousting the monarchy. The suicide attacks in Riyadh of May 12 were a declaration of war by these militants on the Saudi monarchy.

The current dilemma for the Saudi government is how much violent tactics it should use to suppress and eradicate the militant orthodox and their al-Qaeda cohorts before alienating even a larger portion of its population. At the same time, in the eyes of their American interlocutors, the government's willingness to suppress these groups has become a litmus test of its earnestness in dealing with terrorism.

The Saudi monarchy is going through an unprecedented era when its own legitimacy is being threatened by the hardcore orthodox-al-Qaeda nexus. At the same time, its ties with the US have also experienced considerable strain and tensions. It seems that the Saudi rulers are hearing from both parties that now-famous line of George W Bush, with a slight modification, "Either you are with us or you are with the enemy." Except in this case, they seem to be doomed by choosing either side. But remaining neutral in the evolving hardball in their polity is not an option.

Stability-related problems of Iran and Saudi Arabia should be viewed in the larger context of South and West Asia. Afghanistan continues to be highly volatile. Pakistan's domestic tranquility remains a mirage. Further west of Pakistan, Iraq is a place where the escalating spirals of anti-Americanism have pushed all prospects of stability into the distant future. If Iran and Saudi Arabia were also to face instability, then the world might witness chaos on a very large scale.

Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EG22Ak03.html

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