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The world's next superpower
Taipei Times ^ | 07.23.03 | Jonathan Fenby

Posted on 07/23/2003 3:49:12 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State

The world's next superpower

China is growing with bewildering speed, but it is undergoing social upheavals on the way to becoming an economic superpower
 
 

By Jonathan Fenby
THE OBSERVER
Wednesday, Jul 23, 2003,Page 9


ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Conventional wisdom insists that nations ruled by communist parties are regimented, unimaginative failures. Yet nowhere on earth is changing so fast and on such a scale as in China, where market economics and rampant consumerism meet the remnants of Maoism, throwing up paradoxes with profound implications for its 1.3 billion people -- and for the rest of the world.

It is not clear, however, if even the leadership in its heavily guarded Beijing compound knows exactly what is going on in the 9.5 million km2 between the booming development zones of the coast and the huge deserts and mountains on the doorstep of Central Asia.

China is racing to meet its future, confident it will grow into a superpower within a couple of decades, with all that implies for the West and for its Asian neighbors. Yet it remains stunted under the authoritarian hand of a Communist Party for which the retention of power has become an end in itself.

It is the main motor of international expansion, but it contains an uncomfortable expanse of shady zones and, owing to its size and diversity, is very hard to control.

China's gleaming airports put Heathrow to shame. The size of construction projects have led to the joke about the crane being the national bird.

The tycoon class has expanded so substantially that the American business magazine Forbes produces an annual list of China's 100 richest. Car production is rising by millions of vehicles a year.

There are about 300 million mobile-phone users. Shopping malls are crammed with designer clothes, real and counterfeit. Top tickets for Real Madrid's forthcoming game against a Chinese team are priced at ?125 (US$200) each.

Figures issued last week showed that, despite a dip last spring because of the SARS epidemic, China's economic growth should still hit the 7 percent target for the year, with industrial production up by 16 percent in the first six months. Though there are doubts about the precision of official figures, this rate is even higher in the special economic development zones where big, modern factories ally automation with low-cost labour

Having started by making cheap goods, Chinese firms are moving on to more profitable ones as their country's membership of the WTO guarantees them access to world markets.

From toys to computer chips, just about everything seems to come from China these days. Despite SARS, exports in the first half of this year bounded by 34 percent to the equivalent of ?120 billion (US$192 billion). Foreign investment, bringing money, technology and expertise, rises by the year as Western and Japanese executives put the country at the top of their plans.

Made in China

A recent article by an American economist was headlined: "What happens when everything is made in China?"

That raises concern about foreign jobs being exported to China -- as in the decision by Waterford Wedgwood crystal to close British factories and shift production to China for lower costs. But, while international pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency upwards grows, economic expansion is making the mainland a major importer of raw materials, machinery and factory components. Its purchases of crude oil rose by a third in the first half of this year and it could be the salvation of the world steel industry.

On his drive from the airport, British Prime Minister Tony Blair would have seen Beijing engaged in a huge building program running up to its staging of the 2008 Olympics. In Shanghai, a new business district has gone up on marshland and gleaming blocks of flats line the eight-lane roads into the city. A German magnetic-levitation train whisks passengers in from Shanghai's new Pudong airport at 402kph, and a Japanese bullet train is likely to link the city to Beijing. Shenzhen, a pioneering economic development zone across the border from Hong Kong, has grown from a small town into a city of millions attracted by work in its fast-growing factories. Chongqing, capital of the biggest province, Sichuan, is being transformed from a shabby city notorious for its nasty climate into what aims to be a model of growth in a special zone containing 30 million people.

The Three Gorges dam, with its enormous hydro-electric potential, has gone into operation, and there are plans for a mammoth waterway across the country to check the recurrent pattern of droughts and floods. Visit city centers from the once-isolated Kunming in the lush south-west to Manchuria on the border with Russia, and you find the same lines of glass and concrete offices, shops and flats on proud display as signs of modernity.

A middle class is emerging and, this being China, it is numbered in hundreds of millions. Artists and writers challenge tradition in a major way. The "iron rice bowl" of cradle-to-grave welfare promised by Mao Zedong is being smashed. Beijing's development is demolishing the alleyway hutong houses that were a characteristic of the capital for eight centuries.

Modern life is eating away at the traditional family: 14 percent of households now consist of either a single adult or a childless couple who both work. Older people are deeply worried about the future, as their children save to pay for health care and private education. At a lunch in Beijing, the Education Minister spoke to me enthusiastically about the model set by Warwick University for attracting paying students.

A lot of dark areas lie behind the bright lights on the Yangtze cliffs of Chongqing and the Shanghai Bund, where the huge Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank building from before the World War II has been restored as the headquarters of a local development organization.

Income inequalities are enormous. Factory modernization has boosted unemployment, and there are periodic demonstrations by workers who have not been paid. Outside the city centers and modern apartment blocks, China's urban areas are dirty, unhealthy and overcrowded. Workers newly arrived from the country sleep out around train and bus stations, and drive down the already tiny wages paid for manual labor on all those building sites.

Health and safety

Low health and safety standards are highlighted by repeated industrial accidents and the recent spread of SARS. Pollution and environmental destruction are high. Floods kill an average of nearly 4,000 people a year.

The government has launched a series of high-profile crackdowns on major offenders, but corruption is embedded. Badly paid officials exploit their position -- in one city, police stopped motorists to tell them their cars contravened cleanliness regulations: they had a friend standing by to wash vehicles for a small fee.

Much of rural China, which contains most of the country's people, is left behind. Depending on the criteria adopted, upwards of 100 million Chinese live below the absolute poverty line. Though cities are linked by a fast-expanding motorway network, rural communications remain poor. Farmers stage periodic protests about local officials levying "special taxes" for their own enrichment.

Many villages are age-old huddles of mud or adobe huts without sanitation. One villager joked that, if the government really wanted to reduce the number of children, it should lay on electricity so people could watch television at night rather than having sex.

Foreign financial houses have started trading in Chinese shares, but the stock market is run largely for speculation and to direct capital to well-connected firms. The banking system is shot through with huge bad debts as a result of channelling money to politically favored enterprises rather than those which could best use the cash.

The reform of state enterprises seems to be taking longer than expected. Corporate accounts often bear little relation to reality.

An inquiry found recently that most state firms cooked the books. No wonder some commentators see as inevitable the scenario outlined in a recent book called The Coming Collapse of China.

Some of the highest-flying businessmen have crashed to Earth -- the second-ranking person on the Forbes list for 2001 has just been jailed for 18 years for fraud. Huge smuggling rings involving local dignitaries have been uncovered. Municipal officials in Manchuria's main city were found to have been in cahoots with the local mafia.

This is partly the result of such rapid development in a country with no independent legal system, where favors that bring the chance to make a fortune are bought and sold. But the way China is developing poses a distinct problem for the organization that sits obstinately on top of that system and has used its ability to hand out favors and punishment, as the glue that holds it together.

As an old Maoist once said, if the Communist Party does not get rid of corruption, it is done for; but, if does get rid of corruption, it is doomed anyway. Since the move to the market launched by the patriarch Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) two decades ago, individual liberty has grown enormously. Walking in the streets of Chinese cities, you do not feel the oppression that characterized eastern Europe under communism.

Taxi drivers joke about the leadership, and only the politically ambitious pay much attention to its ideological forays.

Basic gamble

That is, in its way, is what the leadership is after. Its basic gamble is that growing wealth will provide a legitimacy to replace the tenets of Maoism. After the first, second and third ways of politics, welcome to China's fourth way where the prospect of getting rich means that politics, in the conventional Western sense, can be pigeonholed for so long as the economy roars ahead.

So, though there have been some electoral experiments at local level,democracy is far away, as it has been throughout China's history. For the new leadership of President Hu Jintao, as for his predecessor, Jiang Zemin stability is paramount -- the Cultural Revolution is held up as a terrible example of what can happen when things get out of hand.

Crossing the political line is perilous. Dissidents are out of the headlines in the West, but they are still persecuted relentlessly. Members of the deep-breathing Falun Gong exercise group are arrested as a security threat. Tibet remains tightly policed, and the war on terrorism is a convenient pretext for cracking down on the mainly Muslim population of the vast western territory of Xinjiang.

China has put on its best face for the world, particularly since it realized the benefits to be gained from Sept. 11. Blair and the other leaders beating a path to Beijing should realize, however, that, useful as foreigners are, China has never set much store by them. The round-eyes can provide technology and money, but the country will go its own path, making temporary alliances that suit it while increasingly using its clout as it chooses, in its bid to displace Japan as Asia's economic and political motor.

To do that, the leaders Blair met this week have to maintain the breakneck momentum of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" to demonstrate that "It's the economy, stupid."

Jonathan Fenby edited the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong from 1995 to 1999 and is the author of Dealing with the Dragon: A Year in the new Hong Kong.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: china; chinastuff; next; superpower
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1 posted on 07/23/2003 3:49:12 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State
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To: *China stuff; HighRoadToChina; maui_hawaii; Slyfox; Free the USA; rightwing2; borghead; ChaseR; ...

2 posted on 07/23/2003 3:49:56 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State (If we don't take action now, We settle for nothing later!)
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To: Thinkin' Gal; Light Speed; Sir Gawain

Daniel 11:2

3 posted on 07/23/2003 4:02:59 AM PDT by Jeremiah Jr (Free Your Mind...5:15 DEBARIM)
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To: Enemy Of The State; billbears; 4ConservativeJustices
remember...the symbol of the dragon and what it represents is very powerful in this nation of 1.3 billion.
4 posted on 07/23/2003 4:07:23 AM PDT by Ff--150 (Hold fast the form of sound words)
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To: Enemy Of The State
The tycoon class has expanded so substantially that the American business magazine Forbes produces an annual list of China's 100 richest.

If China were a pure communist state there would be no 'tycoon class'. The only reason China is having success is it has let some degree of capitalism in and it has elimated some of its socialsitic ways. Unfortunately China still is run by a brutal totalitarian regime.

5 posted on 07/23/2003 4:13:28 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: Always Right
Correction: Brutal authoritarian regime.

Totalitarian is a Stalinist, Khmer Rouge, Hitleresque control over the totality of society and the individuals that comprise it.

Countries that allow some measure of economic freedom are no longer totalitarian.


Just a technical nitpick :)
6 posted on 07/23/2003 4:17:06 AM PDT by Skywalk
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To: Ff--150
A beast. Forced abortions, slave economy. Check the products at Wal-Mart, to see who we are empowering.
7 posted on 07/23/2003 4:23:52 AM PDT by 4CJ (Dims, living proof that almost everywhere, villages are missing their idiot.)
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To: Enemy Of The State
Having started by making cheap goods, Chinese firms are moving on to more profitable ones as their country's membership of the WTO guarantees them access to world markets.

Nobody here cares. They only want cheap goods regardless of the effect to our economy.

BTW. Do any of you free-traders wonder what our economy would be like if, instead of a 500 billion dollar deficit with China, we had a 500 billion dollar surplus, or, at least even trade?

8 posted on 07/23/2003 4:33:25 AM PDT by raybbr
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To: Enemy Of The State
Iran was booming when the Sha fell.

I don't trust Chinese government stats, or even non Chinese stats as they are based up guesses or the again suspect government.

All this wealth is going to end up, if not already, in the insiders hands.

You can not have this type of growth without great internal political tensions. The domestic political swamp is ripe for civil strife.

Lastly, Chinese finances are opeque, at best, so know one really knows their health, or sickness. Of course you could always go into a Chinese civil court...( insert lauging here )
9 posted on 07/23/2003 4:37:20 AM PDT by Leisler
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To: Always Right
China is no longer a communist nation.
To put it in their own words, they are "Socialist with Chinese characteristics".

In my opinion, that is just a way around the words of admitting that their communism failed.

The only thing communist in China is the name of their party.
10 posted on 07/23/2003 4:38:45 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State (If we don't take action now, We settle for nothing later!)
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To: Jeremiah Jr
There you go. Whip a little bible on those pagans and we're all set.
11 posted on 07/23/2003 4:38:50 AM PDT by raybbr
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To: raybbr
It is more likely that China will implode in the next 50 years. It's one-child policy is going to result in a population that is ancient by industrialized nation standards by then, with one worker to support two or three retired people. Plus, their emphasis on sons is going to produce a huge surplus of single men with no one to marry in a few decades. All in all, I'd say things don't look that rosy for China.
12 posted on 07/23/2003 4:43:17 AM PDT by Hootowl
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To: Enemy Of The State
To put it in their own words, they are "Socialist with Chinese characteristics".

China is less Socialistic and more capitalistic than Canada. China's main problem is it is still a totalitarian state with no rights for individuals.

13 posted on 07/23/2003 4:45:45 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: Enemy Of The State
The rise in wealth and social status of the city masses direclty conflicts with the poverty and age old social structure of the rural areas of China.

Becuase travel can be restricted, I beleive there will always be a "serf" class in the rural areas and...unlike America where technology has made farming more productive with less labor allowing rural masses to escape to suburan lives.

This gap between the impoverished and the wealthy class will only grow larger with time. What happens when this gap reaches critical mass is going to be interesting to say the least.
14 posted on 07/23/2003 4:47:38 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: Hootowl
"their emphasis on sons is going to produce a huge surplus of single men with no one to marry in a few decades."

The promise of plunder and booty has always been a motivating factor in armed conflict throughout the ages.
15 posted on 07/23/2003 4:50:36 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: Hootowl
So, are you suggesting we just stand around and wait while our progeny is slowly pushed into third-world status? What if, 15 years from now the Chinese figure this out, and they change their policies? They will then become more agressive and start expanding their land base into places like Viet Nam, Cambodia, etc. What will we do then?
16 posted on 07/23/2003 5:04:03 AM PDT by raybbr
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To: Hootowl
True, there will be problem but that problem will be the world's problem as 1.3 billion people do have a bit of an impact...

With all the single men and no wives, there's a biiiig army.

Perhaps we couuld send Maureen Dowd (she wrote that 'The end of men' bit, right?) over there ...
17 posted on 07/23/2003 5:37:54 AM PDT by Cronos (Mixing Islam with sanity results in serious side effects. Consult your Imam)
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To: Enemy Of The State
Poor Jacques Chirac. Don't tell him about all this. He can't handle any more shattered illusions.
18 posted on 07/23/2003 6:02:03 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Vote Democrat! Vote for national--and personal--suicide! It's like being a suicide bomber!)
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To: Enemy Of The State
re: "In Shanghai, a new business district has gone up on marshland and gleaming blocks of flats line the eight-lane roads into the city. A German magnetic-levitation train whisks passengers in from Shanghai's new Pudong airport at 402kph, and a Japanese bullet train is likely to link the city to Beijing.

The Three Gorges dam, with its enormous hydro-electric potential, has gone into operation, and there are plans for a mammoth waterway across the country to check the recurrent pattern of droughts and floods."


Isn't there supposed to be some BIG PROBLEM with the Three Gorges dam??? Like, when it breaks, Shanghai will be flooded, and GONE? This will be the biggest man made disaster in history, so far. Millions are likely to die.

That project will quite likely cause severe hardships for the Chinese people, it was built mostly as an assertion of the central government's authority after Tianiman square.

Anyway, there is one thing that is FOR SURE! China is over 5,000 years old, many political systems all over the world have come and gone, and China is still there.

China will certinly outlive communism. I am SURE of that!


19 posted on 07/23/2003 6:10:18 AM PDT by RonHolzwarth
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To: Quix; Brian Allen
Any comment on this?
20 posted on 07/23/2003 6:14:56 AM PDT by FreepForever (Communist China is the hub of all evil)
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To: Enemy Of The State
I'd say China already IS a super power.
They can't project their power very well (we could make the People's Liberation Army Navy disappear almost without a ripple... their Air Force would be a tougher project, but I bet we could take 'em, too) but nobody could win a land war with the PLA - there is just too many of 'em and they are suprisingly well equipped!
It will be interesting to see how the "Great Game" plays out in Far East. I hope Japan starts becoming more belligerent, soon!
21 posted on 07/23/2003 6:26:45 AM PDT by Little Ray (When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout!)
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To: Enemy Of The State
The Chinese Supermen, who have created all the many inventions we enjoy today, including...uh, ummmm, uh...

The Chinese Supermen, who have invented and deployed the many awesome weapons for their armed forces, including,,,er, ah, hmmmmm...

The Chinese Supermen, whose brilliant scientists have created the folowing wonder drugs, including...uhh, um, er...
22 posted on 07/23/2003 6:40:30 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: Always Right
"China is less Socialistic and more capitalistic than Canada. China's main problem is it is still a totalitarian state with no rights for individuals."

That is very easily argueable. Simply because China is not a totaltarian state and while they have very little protection for human rights, that is on the slow rise along with the standard of living. (noooo, im not defending the CCP, just pointing out some small facts)
23 posted on 07/23/2003 6:48:27 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State (If we don't take action now, We settle for nothing later!)
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To: Hootowl
Plus, their emphasis on sons is going to produce a huge surplus of single men with no one to marry in a few decades. All in all, I'd say things don't look that rosy for China.

Historically, the solution for nations with surplus men has been to send them to war to acquire more real estate (and females).

Things look a lot less rosy for the nations targeted for acquisition.

24 posted on 07/23/2003 6:52:34 AM PDT by meadsjn
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To: Hootowl
Well, the emphasis on sons is not as existant as it used to be. That exists mostly only in the deep areas of the countryside. However, there is already a serious surplus of men versus women due to such a long practice of aborting female babies in favor of males.

Now they are not even allowed to have tests done to expose the sex of the unborn, it is illegal.
25 posted on 07/23/2003 6:52:45 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State (If we don't take action now, We settle for nothing later!)
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To: Willie Green; Enemy Of The State; HighRoadToChina; nutmeg; Clemenza; PARodrig; firebrand; ...
All no doubdt with the help of our corporations that export our technology and jobs to them. Let us not forget a bit of history, that GM and Ford truck factories in Germany supplied the Wermacht in WW II. PING

If you would like to be removed from my job export ping list FReepmail me. If you'd like to be on it FReepmail me too.






26 posted on 07/23/2003 7:12:01 AM PDT by Cacique
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To: Enemy Of The State
That is very easily argueable.

I am not certain, but I would bet that Canada has higher percentage of the GDP going for social welfare programs than China does, which to me is the best way to measure how 'socialistic' a state is.

27 posted on 07/23/2003 7:24:25 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: clamper1797; sarcasm; BrooklynGOP; A. Pole; Zorrito; GiovannaNicoletta; Caipirabob; Ed_in_NJ; ...
The intermediate and long term demographics mean that China will be needing additional land to take care of that massive surplus of young males. It is human nature that most young males desire females homosexual propaganda not withstanding. Those desires will be filled or there will be violence. Since China does not have the females to fill this need violence will result.

Of course the investment of Americna corporations will result in the US government having to reimburse them when the violence results. Should teh USA become involved the net will be a disater for us with a great many dead Americans.

We should not forget the PLA views teh USA as its potential enemy and they are building up to take us on eventually.

28 posted on 07/23/2003 7:45:13 AM PDT by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: Always Right
If you want to discuss something and then quote me, please do not do so out of context. Im not trying to debate your comparrison of China to Canada because I have never really given any thought to such a topic. However, what I stated as being argueable is as I pointed out the first time.

"That is very easily argueable. Simply because China is not a totaltarian state and while they have very little protection for human rights, that is on the slow rise along with the standard of living"
29 posted on 07/23/2003 7:48:47 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State (If we don't take action now, We settle for nothing later!)
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To: raybbr
Nobody here cares. They only want cheap goods regardless of the effect to our economy.

Here's the real kicker. It's a vicious circle. As we export jobs the poorer Americans will get to where all they can afford is the cheapo Wal-Mart made in China crap. Poorer Americans will have no choice but to buy the cheapChinese stuff even if they want to be loyal to the American manufacturer. Matter of fact this is already happening.

30 posted on 07/23/2003 7:59:21 AM PDT by dennisw (G-d is at war with Amalek for all generations)
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To: Ff--150
Re your post #4, where you asked what does the symbol dragon means....

The dragon symbol is very ancient and it symbolizes the "Cosmic forces that link Heaven to Earth". In Daoism, they pray to "Heaven, Earth and Man". And the Emperor is the "Son of Heaven" who rules with the "Mandate of Heaven"(ie he has the right to rule because he has the Highest Moral Authority). The Emperor sits on the "Dragon Throne". Hence, only the Emperor can use the Dragon symbol.
31 posted on 07/23/2003 7:59:37 AM PDT by The Pheonix
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To: harpseal
Where would they be most likely to try to acquire?

It seems to me that their immediate neighbors to the south and west are heavily populated and are already pushing their land to the limits.

Siberia is supposed to be vast and rich in resources but the Russians can be pretty tough to handle.

Khazakstan and Afghanistan don't seem worth the trouble, except maybe for oil.

Australia seems like the ticket. Thinly populated by Asian standards and wide open spaces.



32 posted on 07/23/2003 8:04:56 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com
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To: Enemy Of The State
"China has put on its best face for the world, particularly since it realized the benefits to be gained from Sept. 11. Blair and the other leaders beating a path to Beijing should realize, however, that, useful as foreigners are, China has never set much store by them. THE ROUND-EYES CAN PROVIDE TECHNOLOGY AND MONEY, BUT THE COUNTRY WILL GO ITS OWN PATH, making temporary alliances that suit it while increasingly using its clout as it chooses, in its bid to displace Japan as Asia's economic and political motor."
33 posted on 07/23/2003 8:12:51 AM PDT by LibertyAndJusticeForAll
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To: sergeantdave
The chinese have never been known for inventiveness or originality, but they can copy great. Just like Japan and Taiwan started out. After they get the economy stimulated with the huge trade surplus, then develop western type schooling to teach engineering (amoung other things) then look out, they will be a power to be reckoned with. Not that they are not now a power to be reckoned with, but after they advance a little more, they will be a power we will not be able to overcome.

The thing that chaps my hide is that we are funding our own overthrow as the leader of the world. Why we allow Chinese goods to be sold in this country with little to no import tax when the chinese tax our products going into china at about 1000% is not only stupid on our part, but I would call it abominable!! And the same thing goes on in so many other countries. Establishing trade treaties with other countries is one of the few things the constitution allows the federal government to do and it is one of the things they do the worst!! What would our economy be like if we had equal trade with all the other countries we trade with?? We are supposed to be for free trade, but what we have is nothing close to it! OK, OK I'll stop my rant, but only for now. I reserve the right to rant later...... : )

34 posted on 07/23/2003 8:13:08 AM PDT by logic ("all that is required for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing")
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To: Enemy Of The State
Didn't yet make it through every paragraph but it seems rather accurate to me.

Thanks.
35 posted on 07/23/2003 8:15:29 AM PDT by Quix (PLEASE SHARE THE TRUTH RE BILLDO AND SHRILLERY FAR AND WIDE)
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To: the gillman@blacklagoon.com
"Australia seems like the ticket. Thinly populated by Asian standards and wide open spaces. "

Don't forget newly dis-armed population!!

36 posted on 07/23/2003 8:17:17 AM PDT by logic ("all that is required for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing")
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To: Jeremiah Jr
I'm not at all convinced that Hu is the 4th king mentioned in Dan 11:2

What leads you to that conclusion?
37 posted on 07/23/2003 8:24:00 AM PDT by Quix (PLEASE SHARE THE TRUTH RE BILLDO AND SHRILLERY FAR AND WIDE)
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To: logic
A lot of Western journals, including TIME, FORBES, FORTUNE, etc, had quoted that China is currently producing about 500,000 Hi-tech engineers and Hi-tech techicans annually. A British Space-website had said that China had put 30,000 Space engineers into one special city, all working on China's Space Programme

Prof Needham of Oxford University had published a multi-volume study on Chinese inventions, and these includes paper, compass, gunpowder, paper-money, civil-service, the ship's rudder, the ship's water-tight compartments, Capitalism (the Tang Dynasty), rockets, flame flower, bronze bells casting techniques, numerous discoveries in the Sciences of Astromony, the water-wheel, paddle-boat,etc etc etc
38 posted on 07/23/2003 8:27:07 AM PDT by The Pheonix
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To: raybbr
Expanding into places like Viet Nam or Cambodia is not of much consequence or pride to China.

THEIR SIGHTS ARE AT LEAST ON AUSTRALIA and the world.

Well placed military and other types have persistently insisted that taking over Australia was not only their right, reasonable and inevitable--it was their duty to their people.
39 posted on 07/23/2003 8:27:23 AM PDT by Quix (PLEASE SHARE THE TRUTH RE BILLDO AND SHRILLERY FAR AND WIDE)
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To: the gillman@blacklagoon.com
Australia and the Phillipines seem the most likely targets IMHO.
40 posted on 07/23/2003 8:28:14 AM PDT by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: Jeremiah Jr
RE your post #3

The photo you posted is that of King Abdullah of Jordan. So, he is the 4th King
41 posted on 07/23/2003 8:30:12 AM PDT by The Pheonix
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To: Enemy Of The State
China is no longer a communist nation. To put it in their own words, they are "Socialist with Chinese characteristics".

More accurately, they've graduated from communism to national socialism (the term "Nazi" was a contraction of "National Socialist German Workers Party"). The people who are wealthy necessarily must have ties to the ruling communist elite, and over time the wealthy class and the communist elite will merge into oligarchy.

This merging is necessary -- you only "own" property if you have the means of defending it (either personally, or thru the use of the state's police powers). If the ruling elite cannot arbitrarily confiscate your property, then that means there are limits on their power. This would lead to the wealthy being in a position to have a say in how things are run. The ruling old men cannot tolerate that, however much some degree of liberalization would benefit their economy

42 posted on 07/23/2003 8:31:09 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Java/C++/Unix/Web Developer === will work for food)
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To: harpseal
Forgot about the Phillipines.

They would probably need to hold at least part of that country to take Australia.

New Zealand would probably be a tasy morsel too.

43 posted on 07/23/2003 8:31:36 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com
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To: harpseal

The Philpines consiste of well over 7000 islands and a population of 70 million. There is widespread poverty and a host of social-economic problems. It is the "sick man of Asia", what the Brits call "a basket case"

Now, in view of this, who in his right mind would even think of conquering her ?
44 posted on 07/23/2003 8:34:03 AM PDT by The Pheonix
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To: FreepForever
Got through all of it. It's an astute article.

I have forgotten which river is where so I don't know that 3 Gorges' collapse would flood Shanghai or another coastal region.

Corruption etc. remains a serious, serious problem. But Chinese jugglers are greatly skilled in politics or the circus stage.

Millions of unmarried men are likely to be a very troublesome force whether they turn into AIDS spreading homosexuals or angry violent gangs roaming where they can.

Officials are aware of the fact that persecuting the authentic Christians only seems to make them multiply in numbers. Yet, they do it. The impact of that remains to be seen. I suspect that it will be the Believers who will pick up the pieces--except that they may be gone on a 7 year Heavenly holiday while evil in the world is punished and the world cleansed of evil.

Anyway--with China on the scene, dull moments are likely to be less and less.
45 posted on 07/23/2003 8:34:14 AM PDT by Quix (PLEASE SHARE THE TRUTH RE BILLDO AND SHRILLERY FAR AND WIDE)
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To: Enemy Of The State
China: ANOTHER COUNTRY WHICH WILL TRY MISCHIEF
AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR WORLD PREDICAMENT.
46 posted on 07/23/2003 8:34:35 AM PDT by Helms (GWB is Lance Arm-strong-ing the Euros.)
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To: Hootowl
Plus, their emphasis on sons is going to produce a huge surplus of single men with no one to marry in a few decades. All in all, I'd say things don't look that rosy for China.

It will just mean that there will be an incentive for Chinese men to immigrate to other countries in search of wives.

47 posted on 07/23/2003 8:34:43 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Java/C++/Unix/Web Developer === will work for food)
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To: sergeantdave
True, they didn't do much for 100's of years with

THEIR

--paper money
--gun powder
--block printing

etc.

However, underestimating their creativity, brilliance, persistence, determination to rule the world

would be foolish to the extreme.
48 posted on 07/23/2003 8:36:25 AM PDT by Quix (PLEASE SHARE THE TRUTH RE BILLDO AND SHRILLERY FAR AND WIDE)
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To: the gillman@blacklagoon.com
Australia seems like the ticket. Thinly populated by Asian standards and wide open spaces

"Thinly populated" doesn't seem like a good place to go find a billion women.

49 posted on 07/23/2003 8:37:52 AM PDT by ASA Vet ("Those who know, don't talk. Those who talk, don't know." (I'm in the Sgt Schultz group))
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To: Always Right
Communism and capitalism cannot coexist in the same realm for long.

One of them will eventually topple the other in China, and based on their records, I'd put my money on capitalism.

Might go fifteen bloody rounds though.

50 posted on 07/23/2003 8:37:52 AM PDT by dead
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