[Arkinsaw]

They still have to somehow get a large army across the straits and supply them during the campaign. This is something that they really have no capability to accomplish.

[July 4th]

They're both huge US trade partners, and we're selling hardware to Taiwan. Either way, if the "stuff" ever hits the fan, it puts us in one heck of a bad position.

[Batrachian]

The only hope for Taiwan is to go nuclear. They need to aquire a credible nuclear deterrent, maybe a triad like the U.S. used to have, and to announce with no ambiguity that they have the means and the determination to destroy China in case of aggression.

Credible nuclear deterrence works. We saw it in the cold war, and there is no reason to doubt that it would work in this case. Taiwan has the technological base to rapidly develop a powerful nuclear force, which they should do in secret, and then announce it to a surprised world.

I don't think they should rely on the U.S. to defend them. You can't take chances when faced with a huge, evil, and implacable enemy like communist China. They're fools not to have done it already.

[America's Resolve]

Just because you can steal an idea like shock and awe, doesn't mean you can make it work. There's an incredible amount of communication and coordination between disparate forces that have to go into the mix as well.

They grasp the idea but we grasp the concept.

[Kadric]

The military strategy of "shock and awe" used to stun the Iraqi military in the opening campaign of Operation Iraqi Freedom might be used by the Chinese if military force is needed to bring Taiwan back under communist control.


Taiwan has never been under communist control.

[bulldogs]

Yeah, the surprise may be that they hit us first with North Korea

[Steel and Fire and Stone]

Furthermore, the report states that Beijing believes that "surprise is crucial" for the success of any military campaign.

..or in other words, they know darn well that if they can't make their invasion fait a complete within about 30 days, they're toast against a U.S. lead retaliation effort.

On the other hand, their pre-emption doctrine provides a solid basis for future friendly relations with both Taiwan and the U.S.A.. < /end sarcasm >

It explains their continuing interest in acquiring operational footholds in stragetic locations in our (U.S.A.'s) backyard. Never trust a Commie or Democrat; lying is what they're all about.

SFS

[The Pheonix]

The Official US Govt's position;

Pres Bush, in his face to face ,one on one meetings with Pres Jiang (three times, Oct 2001-Beijing, Feb 2002-Beijing, Oct 2002-Texas) had reaffirmed the US committment to her "ONE CHINA POLICY". Similarly, he made the same assurance to the Chicoms, in his meeting with the new Pres Hu in France, G8 Summit, 2003

The Official US GOvt line is: "the US Govt does not support Taiwan Independence"

In Nov 2002, Deputy SoD ,Paul Wolfowitz, announced in a HK Phoenix TV interview, that the US "OPPOSES Taiwan Inependence". Many analysts interpreted this statement coming from the most hawisk, ultra-Nes-Conservative, as a warning to the Taiwanese not to rock the boat.

Later, SoS Powell, Deputy SoS, Armistage, also said at news/media conferences in Beijing, that."the US does not support Taiwanese Independence"

The US has not decided to sell the AEGIS destroyers to TW yet, for that is interpreted as "crossing the RED LINE" by the Chicoms,(quoted from various news journals)

SOURCES; Taken by various news items, from FEER, AFP, REUTERS, etc