Iranian Alert -- August 16, 2003 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movment in Iran from being reported.

From jamming satellite broadcasts, to prohibiting news reporters from covering any demonstrations to shutting down all cell phones and even hiring foreign security to control the population, the regime is doing everything in its power to keep the popular movement from expressing its demand for an end of the regime.

These efforts by the regime, while successful in the short term, do not resolve the fundamental reasons why this regime is crumbling from within.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to join us here, post your news stories and comments to this thread.

While the roadmap will remove the rhetorical undepinnings from the terrorist movement and go a LONG WAY toward bringing about much needed representative forms of government in the region, it's not a fix-all solution.

It'll make the real solution far less bloody and painful to impliment - for the Arab world. The solution is an end to the Islamist dream of ruling the world under the banner of the Khalifah through basic freedoms like freedom of speech, freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of self determination in the persuit of life, liberty and happiness.

The roadmap, when implimented, will be a light of hope for oppressed people and a continued warning to tyrants of all stripes.

For most of the West, the reality which will come to pass will be yet another painful awakening from many ingrained, cherished dreams.

Remember that even if this succeeds, there will be a few diehard bloodlusters who are afraid and unable to change and will continue to murder innocent people. They'll be easier to catch though.

There is a fundamental reality on the West Bank, in Baghdad and in every other haven of terror merchants: we can't find them ourselves. If we storm their homes, we're the enemy. If we provide them a concrete and superior alternative to their current squalor ... THEY'LL root out the thugs. The thugs are thugs, they're thugging up the Palestinians and Baghdad denizens with their thuggery, they're not inspiring loyalty and support from their mission. They're inspiring primal survival options at the end of a gun barrell.

The Palestinian Authority is the only entity that can root out Hamas and the other criminal killers lurking in the 'hood. The Israelis can never identify, locate and arrest or kill the bad guys. Impossible. As we Americans, in Baghdad, can never locate all the Baathist and Fedayeen scum going door to door. We need the community to point us to the right doors, and that's happening. It'll happen in the West Bank tenaments too, but it'll be PA security guys taking the garbage out. Or there's no end to the terror.

Nah, they don't care about any death that doesn't include their own.

My sense is that they will observe and calculate the outcome of the 2004 election: if Bush looks vulnerable, they will not move against the terrorists because any of the wraiths in the Democrat primary mix right now would be easily manipulated to retreat to the 1999 status quo.

If Bush is successful in Iraq, if his re-election prospects look likely, the Saudis, like Frank Costello of the NYC Mob in the 40s, will do what's best for business. Luciano was a very useful asset but when his killing became personal, he became a liability, and he ate lead. Bush means business, it's going against George W. Bush or a least favorite brother and 25 other troublemakers and power brokers ... goodbye Bro, the business comes first. Lucky Luciano, Nitti, Siegel, Giancana, Castellano, Jack Ruby, FREDO, Luca Brasi, Ron Brown, Vince Foster ... all were missed after they were killed for valid commercial purposes.

It'll be the same with the Saudis. Prince Naysid may be a good subject for a Dead Pool. How about a boating accident? They'll just kill as many of the Islamist benefactors within their family and borders as necessary to keep their filthy rich/dying of old age lifestyle business alive and send the unmistakable message that there's a new business model in the Kingdom and non-compliance warrants a negative sanction placed in their permanent personnel file, which will be active for approximately 2 hours until they die a slow death by torture and disembowling before a hastily called all-company staff meeting.

Abdullah and the pragmatists haven't been pushed to the brink yet, but I'll guarantee you there is HUGE intrigue and machinations underway in that incestuous cesspool, and the outcomes usually have unhelpful family and citizens dying in violence.

"The thugs are thugs, they're thugging up the Palestinians and Baghdad denizens with their thuggery, they're not inspiring loyalty and support from their mission. They're inspiring primal survival options at the end of a gun barrell. "

Well said and true.

"The Palestinian Authority is the only entity that can root out Hamas and the other criminal killers lurking in the 'hood. The Israelis can never identify, locate and arrest or kill the bad guys. Impossible. As we Americans, in Baghdad, can never locate all the Baathist and Fedayeen scum going door to door. We need the community to point us to the right doors, and that's happening. It'll happen in the West Bank tenaments too, but it'll be PA security guys taking the garbage out. Or there's no end to the terror"

Also well said and true. Surprisingly few people seem to understand that though. Nor do they understand that of the PA DOESN'T take the garbage out, and there's no end to the terror after Palestine becomes an independent state, there will be hell to pay under international law.

The president is forcing various organizations to suit action to rhetoric in this, and they're aware they line they walk is very fine.

"My sense is that they will observe and calculate the outcome of the 2004 election: if Bush looks vulnerable, they will not move against the terrorists because any of the wraiths in the Democrat primary mix right now would be easily manipulated to retreat to the 1999 status quo."

I'm impressed. That is EXACTLY what they're doing. The only support we've really received from the Saudis has been limp wristed and token while they wait out the current election cycle in the hopes of getting another Clintonista back into office. Their investigation following Riyadh has been only to reassure a frightened populace that they're real leaders and will keep them safe. Everything is rhetoric with them, as long as it preserves their hides, and they do not care HOW many innocents are killed as long as it isn't one of the inner circle.

After GW is reelected, their attitude will change temporarily.

I consider George W. Bush a remarkable man of vision and human insight.

People rag here about Colin Powell, how he's watering down our policies and undermining the President. NO WAY. Colin Powell is perfectly in synch with the strategy, tactics and objectives. He has a job, that job is to be a diplomat. President Bush is unhesitant to permit Colin Powell to play the role of the mediating statesman, the adult among cowboys, the sophisticated governing element in a War crazy frathouse.

Bush positions him in that way. Every time Powell is perceived to be at odds with unilateral and forceful American prerogative, he gains standing and negotiating leverage among the State Department lifers (who can't do anything for you, but sure can do bad things TO you) and among the European bon vivants who think his judgements more valid, wise and worthy of support. Powell gets authority and leverage by appearing to be a foil to Bush to the 5th Column State Department functionaries and the International Diplomatic community. But, Powell works with Bush, he works FOR Bush, and he is an advisor and a dutiful executor of President Bush's directives. No doubt in my mind.

Bush does this constantly. From day one of his tenure till 9/11, he worked to bolster the credibility of Vincente Fox in his hostile and tenuous political position in Mexican politics. He wanted Fox to look independent, strong and dedicated to Mexico's autonomy and national interests. Bush did it to strengthen a critically vital ally and neighbor at a seminal time in their history. People here went nutzoid that Bush was selling out the USA to the Mexicans, but in reality, we can't address the immigration surge without the partnership of a strong, forceful Mexican leader to attack the Corrupt Federales and State sanctioned LEOs in border States.

Bush likes Fox, IMO. Meeting with him, now, gives Fox no boost because Bush can't play anything but a hardass on Domestic Security issues. Bush likes Putin, he considers Putin a partner, and Putin needs autonomy from the USA to maintain HIS political standing. Guaranteed, however, under the radar, Putin is giving us everything he can. Bush likes Abdullah from Saudi Arabia, he brought him to the Ranch. That was a signal ... Saudis are allies, these guys are helping us. Bush likes and trusts Masharraf. He likes and trusts the leaders of Italy, Jordan, Spain, Australia, Poland, Phillipenes, Indonesia and Colombia. He is whatever Tony Blair needs him to be as long as it doesn't hurt American standing. He understands political imperatives specific to nations, and he wants to make the people he trusts and values secure and strong. He likes Sharon, he trusts Mahmoud Abbas and fully realizes the limitations he is constrained by.

He hates Schroeder, Chirac, Chetrien and the guys running Brazil, Argentina and Egypt. He distrusts the Chinese leadership profoundly. The Scandinavians, excluding the Danes, don't exist.

If Bush meets with a leader, if he invites them here, that guy or gal is our teammate and we'll go to the wall to make them shine as equals to the American President in seriousness, influence and standing.

Bush didn't give McCain ONE bit of limelight on the CFR. He hasn't met with the NAACP or Jesse Jackson or at the request of the Congressional Black Caucus. He's frozen Daschele out of the spotlight he seized after those Congressional/WH breakfasts. He never thought of dumping a staffer for that 16 word non-issue. He sure did dump that turncoat Treasury Secretary, he sure did stiff arm the Army General Staff flotsam left over from the Clinton kindergarten, he won't let Cheney twist in Henry Waxman and Richard Shelby's intestinal gas, when somebody told him there was a big to do because Rumsfeld just called France and Germany "Old Europe", Bush looked up from his papers and said "Good."

Rummy's got unlimited proxy.

The Arab world is not hard to understand.

I would forward a guess that 80% of all the Muslims living in the Middle East, Indonesia and North Africa just want the same boring stuff we do ... food on the table, a roof over their heads, a safe community and a more enlightened, prosperous life for their kids. 10% of that crowd want to lead their nations into prosperity, and 10% want to return to a 9th Century mirage of a total, pure Islamic governing authority.

The last 10% are bullying their neighbors into the 9th century by murdering and destroying 21st century societies. The first 10% are slowly gaining support and political traction. The other 80% are keeping their heads down, eyes open and keeping all options open.

When I see these guys jumping around on the streets of Cairo, Amman or on the West Bank, I think about going to an office parties that you hate, but need to make a showing for the team player props. You hang around long enough that your presence is noted by the boss, and then sneak out to throw darts and watch a blues band with your pals.

I do too. But, the terrorist thugs of Hamas, Fedayeen Saddam, Taliban and Al Qaida interact within poor urban Islamic neighborhoods the way the Vice Lords and Sultan Gangbangers interacted with the residents of the Cabrini Green HUD projects in south Chicago back in the late 80s. They reigned over a feudal society through menace and imminent violence, but none of the residents were stupid enough to narc them out to a Cop. The guys in the black doo rags with the shotguns and Rugers storming into your living room at will trumped the guys in blue with guns who couldn't come into your living room without knocking and politely asking permission.

The residents didn't want these goons around, they didn't support their activities, but they lived with them and just shook their head affirmatively and heartily agreed with anything they wanted. But, if the numbers added up, and the odds were sufficient, they'd delight in the arrest, killing or dispersal of the gangbangas. They knew who was victimizing them, but they wouldn't say so unless there was no chance of retribution.

and there's no end to the terror after Palestine becomes an independent state, there will be hell to pay under international law.

Not only that, but the fact that there is a state, with defined borders and soverign virtue and a community with a shared experience and investment in the future ... is an automatic mitigator of terror. States are real, they have emotional appeal to the residents, and they have a vested interest in the maintanence and care of their "thing".

The Palestinian settlements are breeding grounds for terrorist operations, there's no sense of community threat or loss when mass murder of another countries innocents is staged and initiated from your neighborhood. It's not YOURS.

If it was Palestine, if it was your country and your people and your land as a Palestinian, now that guy who is trespassing on your street, plotting mayhem and recruiting murderers is a THREAT to your home, your tribe.

That's the imperative of a Palestinian State. Palestinians will protect their tribe, their turf. That's why Al Qaida flourished in Afghanistan, Sudan and Rugged Pakistan. Those nations had no sense of something to lose.

I posted on another thread that the Saudi Royal "Family" numbers 7000 blood relations, and with family, over 24,000. Each of the 7000 get an annual stipend of at least $500,000. If just 150 of that group give Bin Laden $200,000, that's $30 million annually for Al Qaida operations from just over 2% of the Royals giving 40% of their trust fund allowance for Holy Jihad. That's the complexity of just tagging the Saudi "Royals" as being benefactors and financiers of terror cells, there's a lot of slackers with a half mil of idle cash and lots of time on their hands. Many run oil brokering outfits, and there was a lot of black market oil available ... as much as 600,000 barrels per day, for sale during the Oil for Food embezzlement caper. At $30 a barrel, that's $18 million a day of hard cash filtering through places like Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen and there was no food on the wish list. $4.5 billion to buy nasty war toys from North Korean and China, finance terror monkeys and help out the French and German union-larded economies. That meanie Bush had to go and ruin the whole sweet shebang!

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