Posted on 08/16/2003 12:41:15 AM PDT by Pro-Bush
The Terror Question
No Signs of Deliberate Attack in Blackout, But Possibility Not Ruled Out
Aug. 15— Despite official assurances to the contrary, could terrorists have exploited a vulnerable power grid to cause Thursday's massive blackout? The cause of the failure remains a mystery, as power was gradually returning from the largest-ever blackout in the nation's history, affecting some 50 million people in areas from Michigan to New York.
And while there is no indication the power grid was sabotaged, some experts caution it is too soon to rule out any possible explanation — including cyber-terror.
"Anybody who says that they know what happened last night is lying," said Dick Clarke, an ABCNEWS consultant and former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure, and Counterterrorism.
"If it were a cyber-attack, you wouldn't know right away," added Clarke. "And you might never know."
A Vulnerable System
Clarke said a series of simulated computer attacks on electric power grids four years ago were almost all successful, showing the vulnerability of the system.
Ironically, utility companies had just agreed on cyber-security rules days ago, said Clarke, although they had not implemented them yet.
Over the past two years, there have been numerous instances of what law enforcement officials called "credible intrusion events" in computers into the electric grid system.
In one, during the spring of 2001, the FBI detected hackers routed through China who were trying to invade the power grid in Florida. The sophistication of the hacker attack deeply concerned law enforcement officials, and new safety standards were implemented in response to the problem.
The National Academy of Science also warned of the dangers of a cyber-attack on U.S. electrical systems. A skillful cyber-attack would not leave any obvious "footprints," or signs of deliberate tampering, experts warned.
Officials Reject Terror Theory
There were various conflicting explanations in the first hours after the lights went out, but officials were unanimous in arguing there was no evidence of terrorism.
"At this time we have no indication that these events are related to a terrorist act," a senior FBI official told ABCNEWS today. The official noted that the FBI's investigation was ongoing.
The same point was made by President Bush on Thursday night.
"The one thing I can say for certain is that this was not a terrorist act," President Bush said from California, where he was on a two-day fund-raising drive.
Many industry and government experts suggested instead of terrorism, an outdated and overloaded power grid system was probably at fault, though it was too soon to know what specifically went wrong.
A spokesman for Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien said a lightning strike on part of a Niagara, N.Y., power plant probably caused the blackout. U.S. officials, however, rejected the theory.
This morning, there was still no agreement even on where the power outage began.
Experts such as Michehl Gent, president of the North American Electric Reliability Council, insisted terrorism was not involved. The council is a nonprofit body formed after the 1965 Northeast blackout to prevent future power outages.
"We don't have any indication of blown-up equipment," Gent told Good Morning America today. "So we're almost certain that it is not terrorism of any kind."
Gent also insisted it was extremely unlikely a disgruntled employee or outside saboteur caused the calamity, but vowed the investigation would discover what went wrong.
"We will get to the bottom of this and fix it. We will not cover anything up," Gent said. "We'll name names and find out what happened."
That having been said, a blackout could be set up prior to a terrorist attack, and it would have the effect of magnifying the terror. Imagine the effect of 9-11 if New York's power had been cut just minutes prior to the attacks. As a force multiplier for a terrorist strike, it would be devastaing.
My personal opinion is that this whole power failure story has been way over blown by the 24 hour Cable NEWS outlets.
I don't think terrorists caused the blackout; however, a blackout would be an ideal time for a terrorist to attack other targets.I agree, which is why I don't think this one was caused by terrorists. I do suspect that the cause was a vulnerability they could utilize, hence all the odd speculation on the cause. The real one, they don't want to talk about.
-Eric
Also massive power outages would create holes in the radar coverage of the air traffic control system. Also, cell phones and possibly portions of the internet would go down. It's possible the calls to passengers on flight 93 might not have gotten through.
If it was caused by terrorist hackers, then bravo for the gov if we just say "Aw, it was just lightening." That should boil the blood of the terrorists, who want a lot of publicity and credit.
Yes, but they weren't expecting us to be civilized. They expected madness and mayhem. Massive crime spree. Economic system collapse, etc.....(mainly looking for economic impact).
Sorry fella's - not today.
This is a test. This is only a test, in the event of a real emergency...
Maybe it got away from them.
Cyber-Attacks by Al Qaeda Feared
Terrorists at Threshold of Using Internet as Tool of Bloodshed, Experts Say
By Barton Gellman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, June 27, 2002; Page A01
[snip]
... Working with experts at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the FBI traced trails of a broader reconnaissance. A forensic summary of the investigation, prepared in the Defense Department, said the bureau found "multiple casings of sites" nationwide. Routed through telecommunications switches in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Pakistan, the visitors studied emergency telephone systems, electrical generation and transmission, water storage and distribution, nuclear power plants and gas facilities.
[snip]
Specialized digital devices are used by the millions as the brains of American "critical infrastructure" -- a term defined by federal directive to mean industrial sectors that are "essential to the minimum operations of the economy and government."
The devices are called distributed control systems, or DCS, and supervisory control and data acquisition, or SCADA, systems. The simplest ones collect measurements, throw railway switches, close circuit-breakers or adjust valves in the pipes that carry water, oil and gas. More complicated versions sift incoming data, govern multiple devices and cover a broader area.
[snip]
Massoud Amin, a mathematician directing new security efforts in the industry, described the North American power grid as "the most complex machine ever built." At an April 2 conference hosted by the Commerce Department, participants said, government and industry scientists agreed that they have no idea how the grid would respond to a cyber-attack.
What they do know is that "Red Teams" of mock intruders from the Energy Department's four national laboratories have devised what one government document listed as "eight scenarios for SCADA attack on an electrical power grid" -- and all of them work. Eighteen such exercises have been conducted to date against large regional utilities, and Richard A. Clarke, Bush's cyber- security adviser, said the intruders "have always, always succeeded."
Joseph M. Weiss of KEMA Consulting, a leading expert in control system security, reported at two recent industry conferences that intruders were "able to assemble a detailed map" of each system and "intercepted and changed" SCADA commands without detection.
[end of excerpt, see link above for remainder]
Now presuming that this particular attack was not caused by terrorism it does point out a possible future target to terrorist cells that would be low risk and easily done. Causing an arc between two high voltage transmission lines would take out those lines. Bringing down a couple of towers which support high voltage trans mission lines would also bring down that line. I can come up with a cheap means to take out an electrical substation using only legaly available substances that are effectively untraceable and legally it would not even qualify as a destructive device. Such a device could be employed by one person acting alone.
I can come up with a means of taking out an electrical transmission line that uses bronze age implements and one person. How many such lines have to be taken down to cause wide spread power failures bring down the grid? I did not go into details because I do not want this to be a how to instruction but five people could take down the grid at least as seriously as this outage and possibly covering a wider area and meaning it would take significantly longer to be back on line.
Now we are also talking some real economic damage here beyond the initial inconvenience. If combined with another attack then we are talking some serious damage to the USA.
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