Skip to comments.Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney? [Say What?!? 7-10% of Tea Party Evangelicals support Obama??]
Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are bolting from the base. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I cant write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
They will indeed.
I'm just hoping congress is impacted enough that whichever liberal wins the white house, has a fairly conservative congress with a case of spineous hughmongous.
I still dont know what an Evangelical is suppose to be...
I was discussing this new term with some other Christians this morning...
They asked me why they keep seeing “Evangelical” but not “Christian” or Protestant”
But as a Christian and a Conservative I wont be voting for Willard...
The GOP needs to learn that running a liberal is always a losing strategy for them, as far as conservatives are concerned.
If they don't want to go the way of the Whigs, that is.
This is the MSM’s effort to get people thinking that O will surely win. Then when it doesn’t happen (like Gore and Kerry) there will be outrage etc etc etc
They aren’t kneeling at the feet of Obama. They are the holier-than-thou purists that refuse to vote for Romney, thus are complicit in destroying the very Country they profess to love.
Imbeciles and traitors all.
How about preventing the Marxist from consolidating state socialism in this country?
You really want Bambi to win this thing?
Sorry, that's simply unthinkable.
The GOP is famous for worrying about what 'people will think' and acting out of fear instead of strength.
Face it, they are wusses. Expecting anything else is crazy.
You work within the party to further conservative principles, as the Tea Party has been somewhat successful in doing. Taking your marbles and going home is not constructive and simply helps the ongoing socialization of America. To say that Obama and Romney are exactly the same is patently false. Romney is not against the free market like O.
Irrelevant. The pollster asks them "Are you a Tea Partier?" They say "No." He then asks "Are you an evangelical Christian?". They answer "Yes". They are then put in a bin marked "Tea Partier OR evangelical Christian". When the headlines are written, that category magically becomes "Conservatives", even though it may contain half or more of the black population.
I haven't said that. But I have said that the House and Senate will continue to grow more conservative and develop a spine under Liberal 1(Obama), but they will do the opposite under Liberal 2 (Romney).
Romney wins, we've got 8 more years before we have a chance to put a conservative in office. If Obama wins, we can do it in 4.
I don't want Obama, I don't want Romney.
I'm not getting what I want, this election. I'll deal with that as an adult. And be here later to fight this fight again.
I honestly can't fathom the mindset that says Bambi and Romny are the same. Hanging around and allowing the most radically leftwing, (Hell, the man's a Marxist) and destructive president ever seems not only silly, but a bit crazy.
You do realize that you will have to deal with folks that won't vote for Romney after the election is over? Conservatives that won't vote for your liberal...
Namecalling isn't going to win you any converts.
Nobama and Soros thank you for your vote.
If Obama wins, at this pace, we will have so many people dependent on government we won’t have enough independently minded people to make a Conservative base. We already have 47% of people on government assistance. We are a breath away from that tipping point.
You can’t hope for change, you have to deal with the reality in front of you.
...and let’s not even mention all of the fires going on around the world that not only is Obama failing at but seems to be stoking. The way it is going, the next election if Obama wins, will be nothing more than a show to keep a tinhorn dictator in power.