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Democraps Build Challenge With Big War Chest, Popular Drug-Cost Issue
LANSING, Mich. -- In the war for Congress this fall, the stakes are huge, but the battlefield is remarkably small.
Voters in several cities such as this one will witness the most intense and expensive campaign ever waged for control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats need only seven seats for a majority, so each contest is crucial. The prize: the right to choose powerful committee chairmen and set the agenda for the House, to write tax laws and implement or thwart the president's policies. Many players believe this battle is as important as the presidential race.
And yet, only about 40 of the 435 seats could plausibly switch hands this fall. Out of that smaller universe, a dozen races are clearly the ones to watch, and they may well hinge on two factors: funds and pharmaceuticals.
The decisive dozen cover a wide range of American territory and issues. They include: California's 27th District, where a Clinton impeachment prosecutor, GOP Rep. James Rogan, has a tenuous hold on his Los Angeles suburbs; New Jersey's 12th, where freshman Democrat Rush Holt is in trouble; and Illinois's 10th, where moderate GOP Rep. John Porter's retirement has created a headache for Republicans on the northern shoulder of Chicago, an area conservative on fiscal issues but more liberal on social ones.
A Greater Opportunity
As the challengers, the Democrats might seem to be in for a rough ride. The economy is strong, and Americans are largely content with a status quo in which, among other things, Republicans control the House. But Democrats have some important advantages. Of the 435 seats, there are 30 "open" seats in which incumbents are retiring or running for higher office. Of those, three-quarters are currently held by Republicans. Not having to run against an incumbent gives Democrats a greater opportunity to pick up such seats.
Moreover, a look at the 12 key districts reveals the importance of those two things mentioned earlier: money and pills.
For the first time since losing their majority in 1994, Democrats are sitting on more money than the Republicans heading into the final stretch. House Democratic leaders have $15 million more than Republicans to spend on their candidates, much of it raised from labor unions and trial lawyers. One strategist says Democrats have enough money to spend $1 million on ads in each of their targeted districts, including Michigan's 8th.
Many of those ads will deal with the one national issue that resonates in each of the 12 races: providing the elderly, many of whom live on fixed incomes, with coverage for the ever-rising cost of prescription drugs. Virtually every Democratic House candidate this year has made prescription-drug coverage a paramount theme, often at the behest of Minority Leader Richard Gephardt. The party's own polls show that Americans -- especially older citizens, who are more likely to vote -- care deeply about prescription drugs, and that Democrats are considered the best party to fix this health-care problem.
In the aged gymnasium of Lansing's St. Casimir Catholic Church, Democratic candidate Dianne Byrum glides from table to table amid the butter-soaked corn and draft beer. A seasoned politician of 46 disguised in a motherly persona, she believes that "prescription drugs are the issue of this campaign." By her own accounts, she spends 60% of her time talking about the topic.
Opting for Other Issues
Her rival, Republican Mike Rogers, disagrees. "The only issue my opponent talks about is prescription drugs, prescription drugs, prescription drugs, prescription drugs," says Mr. Rogers, who is 37. "But I don't think you can win an election by just saying you'll give people prescription drugs."
Mr. Rogers, a former agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, now serves as the second-ranking leader in the state Senate. He believes his race, like many other House contests, could be decided by a few hundred votes. That's why he came the week after the GOP convention to bask in the sunshine of presidential candidate George W. Bush, whose campaign train steamed through East Lansing. Handsome, passionately articulate, Mr. Rogers fired up the crowd of 7,000 Republican loyalists with themes straight from Mr. Bush's convention speech: unity, inclusiveness, a time for change.
Michigan's 8th District shares the suburban character of other swing districts, which tend to be enclaves of big-city suburbs, surrounded by rural, small-town America. It has an even mix of Republicans and Democrats, many of whom have a history of voting for the person rather than the party. Most voters here are middle-class whites, and they have seen their incomes soar in the long-running economic boom. But there are pockets of minorities, especially here in Lansing, and blue-collar auto workers still waiting for the prosperity to trickle down.
The district also embodies the independent spirit that is sweeping suburban America. John McCain won this district in the GOP presidential primary and Reform Party candidate Ross Perot captured 23% of the vote here in 1992. "There's a strong independent bloc here," Mr. Rogers says. "That's where the election is decided."
All told, "this is the race to watch on election night," says Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, chairman of the GOP's political operation, the National Republican Congressional Committee. "If we win there," he adds, Democrats have no chance of overcoming his party's majority. (Republicans hold 223 seats, Democrats 210, and two are held by independents.)
Mrs. Byrum and Mr. Rogers are fighting to take the seat of Rep. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who's moving on to run for the Senate. Nationally, it will be open races such as these that will largely decide which party prevails. These seats are easier to pick up by an opposing party because in many cases neither candidate enjoys a significant advantage, either in fund-raising or name recognition, heading into the race.
Heart of the Battles
Michigan's 8th District has been at the heart of the political battles that have left power in Congress so closely balanced. In 1994, it was an open seat, and GOP businessman Dick Chrysler wrapped himself in the "Contract with America" and won it. Two years later, when the GOP's rock-solid majority began to deteriorate, Ms. Stabenow defeated him. She won re-election in 1998, as the GOP majority further eroded.
Now her departure has left the seat up for grabs again. The contest to fill it will be both heated and costly. As of late July, Mr. Rogers had raised $1.24 million, Mrs. Byrum $1.17 million. The numbers reveal not only the parity of the two candidates, but also the explosive growth of fund-raising in this district. In 1994, the year Republicans captured control of Congress for the first time in 40 years, the two candidates spent a combined $790,000.
"I never dreamed it would take this much money" to run for a seat in Michigan, says Mr. Rogers.
The health issue is pulling even more money and outside firepower into the race. Mr. Gephardt has visited this district twice to help Mrs. Byrum, and both times prescription drugs were the main topic.
Meanwhile, two business-backed groups that are planning big ad campaigns to defeat the Democrats' prescription-drug proposals and their plans to reform health-maintenance organizations are both zeroing in on Michigan. The Health Benefits Coalition, which is funded by the insurance industry and big employers, has already run ads in the state, and another round is planned for later this month. A second coalition, Citizens for Better Medicare, which is financed heavily by the drug industry, has aired its complaints on radio stations in the Detroit area, which reaches Michigan's 8th. These ads won't explicitly endorse Mr. Rogers, but they are clearly designed to benefit him and other GOP candidates.
An Issue Overlooked
At the GOP's national convention, prescription-drug coverage was virtually ignored, leaving House candidates scrambling to protect themselves from an inevitable deluge of criticism. Mr. Rogers is using his position in the state Senate to build a legislative record on prescription drugs in preparation for his House race. He co-sponsored legislation in the state capitol to spend money from the national tobacco settlement on prescription-drug coverage for Michiganders.
Mr. Rogers also recently sent President Clinton an open letter imploring him to sit down with leaders from both parties and hash out a bipartisan compromise before the elections. Democrats, of course, have no interest in striking a deal and taking their most potent political weapon off the table. But his letter garnered some local ink.
The Democrats' success with the prescription-drug issue is a reversal from six years ago, when they lost control of the House. Then, it was the Clinton administration's universal health-care proposal, spearheaded by Hillary Rodham Clinton, as well as a ban on assault weapons, that cost congressional Democrats dearly.
Now Democrats think both issues have turned around and are working to their benefit. They are arguing for HMO reform and prescription drugs for the elderly, which are smaller but more popular changes in health care. And the parties are fighting over safety rules, such as gun locks and an extra day added to the waiting period for buying guns at gun shows. But unlike six years ago, when Democrats felt pressure from President Clinton to vote for the assault-weapons ban, the party leadership isn't insisting that members toe the party line if it hurts them with pro-gun voters in their districts.
"The world has changed. They have huge problems and deservedly so," Rep. John Dingell, the powerful Michigan Democrat, says of the Republicans. "They are having an appalling time defending the indefensible" on HMOs, he adds, and on prescription drugs, "they have only two real allies: HMOs and pharmaceutical companies."
Paul Perry, a conservative, pro-gun Democrat in southwest Indiana, is the prototypical Democratic candidate Mr. Gephardt has enlisted to exploit public concern over health-care coverage. Dr. Perry, a surgeon who was recruited to unseat GOP Rep. John Hostettler on Republican turf, has used the prescription-drug issue so effectively that the race is now considered a toss-up. Across the river and down the road in Kentucky, the AFL-CIO and other groups already are running ads touting former Democratic Rep. Scotty Baesler's support for the Democratic plan in his bid to oust freshman GOP Rep. Ernie Fletcher, himself a doctor.
Open to Attack
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also has launched an issued-based ad campaign in six districts, including Mr. Fletcher's. In most instances, the DCCC is financing these ads by funneling soft money through state political parties to evade federal restrictions on their large, uncapped donations from corporations, labor unions and trial lawyers. If the DCCC ran the ads themselves, they would have to spend mostly money from political action committees, which is highly restricted and harder to raise; by steering money through the state, the DCCC is free to spend mostly soft money, thanks to a loophole in campaign-finance laws.
Republicans privately concede that health care is one issue on which they have left themselves open to attack. House Republicans did pass a voluntary prescription-drug plan that encourages the drug industry to provide lower-cost pills to seniors by offering them government subsidies. But the GOP has been far less aggressive than Democrats in touting their alternative program, and voters remain chary of major drug makers and the degree of their interest in voluntarily lowering costs.
"I think the landscape has changed completely," says Chip Kahn, president of the Health Insurance Association of America. "The drug issue appears to me to be a compelling issue across the country."
In Arkansas' 4th District, Democrat Mike Ross, who owns a pharmacy, champions a new prescription-drug benefit, and both the AFL-CIO and Citizens for Better Medicare have already been on the air with competing spots, pro and con on the issue. "I own a small-town family pharmacy," he says. "I know a lot of politicians are talking about this issue. I don't just talk about it. I see it. ... This is America. We can do better by our senior citizens."
While health care is hot, other issues also are popping up in the critical dozen districts. Rep. Rogan in California, for instance, has found himself at the center of a tough contest because of impeachment and education. He played a prominent role in pushing for President Clinton's impeachment. He also has been targeted in a Democratic ad for his opposition to increased funding for school construction.
Democrats will also benefit from the fact that the AFL-CIO's campaign plan for aiding the party is bigger and stronger than ever. The unions have budgeted $40 million to help elect Democrats, the bulk of which will fund a massive grass-roots program to drag voters to the booth on Election Day.
With so much money cluttering the airwaves, Republicans privately fear that the AFL-CIO's voter-turnout program could again cost the GOP seats. In 1998, the AFL-CIO was widely credited for providing the margin of victory in several close races.
Record Sums of Money
Texas Rep. Tom DeLay, the GOP's most aggressive fund-raiser and political strategist, tried to combat the AFL-CIO. He helped set up an organization, called the Republican Issue Majority Committee, that would let wealthy conservatives anonymously contribute unlimited funds to bankroll a $25 million get-out-the-vote operation. But the Democrats passed legislation that would require such political groups to disclose their donors. That scared off a lot of donors and dimmed the Republicans' brightest hope for combating the unions.
It's not just the political parties and labor unions that are stocked with record sums of money. The candidates themselves have socked away plenty, too. Mr. Rogan and his opponent, Democrat Adam Schiff, already have raised a combined $8 million, more than many senators and governors spent in 1998 to win office elsewhere. All told, political experts predict that spending in many competitive races will top the $4 million mark.
With so much money to be spent, much can happen before election day. Indeed, Gwen Dershen, 59, who proudly wore a "Dianne Byrum" sticker on her chest at the corn roasts, demonstrates how fickle the electorate can be. Mrs. Dershen is very concerned about prescription-drug costs, estimating that complications with her drug plan cost her $600 extra a year to treat her ailments.
But when asked if she prefers the Democrat or Republican solution to her drug problems, Mrs. Dershen simply says: "I just haven't believed anything they are doing or saying right now."
The Decisive Dozen
Congressional districts with races whose outcome will most likely determine which party controls Congress after the elections.
ARKANSAS 4
This district will be a test of the Democrat's ability to bring out the
black vote in the South.
Republican: Incumbent Rep. Jay
Dickey
Democrat: Pharmacist Mike Ross
District: Southern Arkansas, Pine Bluff; Hot Springs
Major Employers: Poultry farms; Georgia
Pacific; Tyson Foods; Cooper Tire & Rubber
Median Household Income: $19,621
Median House Value: $40,400
Racial Makeup: White ( 72.4%); Black
(26.6%)
CALIFORNIA 27
The test case for impeachment, enabling both the incumbent, who was a House manager in the impeachment trial, and his opponent to raise buckets of outside money. Likely to be the most expensive House race in history.
Republican: GOP Rep. James Rogan
Democrat: State Sen. Adam Schiff
District: Burbank, most of
Pasadena
Major Employers: NASA Propulsion Lab;
Disney; Huntington Memorial Hospital
Median Household Income: $37,929
Median House Value: $296,000
Racial Makeup*: White (71%); Hispanic
(20%); Asian (11%); Black (8%)
CALIFORNIA 36
A well-known and tested candidate, Harman gave up this seat in 1998 to run an unsuccessful race for governor, and now wants it back.
Republican: Incumbent Rep. Steve
Kuykendall
Democrat: Former Rep. Jane Harman
District: West Los Angeles County:
Manhattan Beach; Torrance
Major Employers: Aerospace Corp.; Xerox
Corp.
Median Household Income: $48,522
Median House Value: $371,100
Racial Makeup*: White (78%); Hispanic
(15%); Asian (13%); Black (3%)
FLORIDA 8
Incumbent Bill McCollum is running for Senate, creating another GOP open seat.
Republican: Sept. 5 primary pits
State Sen. Bill Sublette against attorney Ric Keller and businessman Bob
Hering.
Democrat: Linda Chapin, former Orange
City Chair
District: Central Florida, part of
Orlando
Major Employers: Disney World; Universal
Studios; Lockheed Martin
Median Household Income: $31,251
Median House Value: $85,100
Racial Makeup*: White (88.9%); Hispanic
(11%); Black (5.1%); American Indian (3.3%) Asian (2.3%)
ILLINOIS 10
Democrats have recruited a talented woman to attempt to win this GOP-leaning district, where Republican John Porter is retiring.
Republican: Mark Kirk, former aide to
Rep. Porter
Democrat: State Rep. Lauren Beth
Gash
District: Waukegan, Chicago
suburbs
Major Employers: Abbott Laboratories;
Motorola; Allstate
Median Household Income: $50,355
Median House Value: $181,400
Racial Makeup*: White (86.6%) Hispanic
(6.8%); Black (6.1%); Asian (4%)
INDIANA 8
Democrats see Hostettler as a weak incumbent, and have recruited a pro-gun conservative to try to defeat him.
Republican: Incumbent Rep. John
Hostettler
Democrat: Dr. Paul Perry
District: Evansville, Bloomington
Major Employers: Indiana University;
Whirlpool Corp.
Median Household Income: $25,242
Median House Value: $56,500
Racial Makeup: White (96%); Black
(3%)
KENTUCKY 6
The rematch of the 1998 race will be dominated by the debate over prescription drugs.
Republican: Freshman Rep. Ernie
Fletcher
Democrat: Former Rep. Scotty
Baesler
District: Lexington; Frankfort
Major Employers: Lexmark International;
U. of Kentucky; Toyota Motor; Hitachi Automotive
Median Household Income: $25,364
Median House Value: $61,900
Racial Makeup: White (90.8%); Black
(8.1%)
MICHIGAN 8
Two of this year's best candidates fight to succeed Debbie Stabenow, who is running for Senate.
Republican: State Sen. Mike
Rogers
Democrat: State Sen. Dianne Byrum
District: Lansing
Major Employers: state government;
Michigan State University; General Motors
Median Household Income: $35,911
Median House Value: $72,100
Racial Makeup: White (90.4%); Black
(5.7%); Hispanic (2.9%)
MONTANA AT-LARGE
The incumbent is retiring, making this one of 23 open GOP seats.
Republican: Dennis Rehberg
Democrat: Nancy Keenan, superintendent
of public instruction
District: The entire state
Major Employers: State government; St.
Patrick Hospital
Median Household Income: $29,277
Median House Value: $56,600
Racial Makeup: White (93%); American
Indian (6%); Asian (1%)
NEW JERSEY 12
A well-funded former GOP congressman takes aim at one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Republican: Former Rep. Dick
Zimmer
Democrat: Incumbent Rep. Rush Holt
District: Princeton, Flemington
Major Employers: Bristol-Myers Squibb;
Princeton U.; Lockheed Martin Median Household Income: $54, 630
Median House Value: $205,700
Racial Makeup: White (89.7%); Black
(5.2%); Asian (4.4%); Hispanic (2.6%)
PENNSYLVANIA 13
Incumbent is a key target of the GOP, and this district is a crucial battleground for the House, the Senate and the presidency.
Republican: State Sen. Stewart
Greenleaf
Democrat: Incumbent Rep. Joe
Hoeffel
District: "Main Line" Philadelphia
suburbs
Major Employers: Merck ; Bryn Mawr
Hospital; Unisys
Median Household Income: $44,764
Median House Value: $147,500
Racial Makeup: White (91%); Black (6%);
Asian (2%); Hispanic (1%)
WASHINGTON 2
GOP incumbent Jack Metcalf is retiring. This will be an important barometer for a state that has four House seats in play.
Republican: State Rep. John
Koster
Democrat: Snohomish County Councilman
Rick Larsen
District: Puget Sound-Everett;
Bellingham
Major Employers: Boeing; B.F.
Goodrich
Median Household Income: $31,305
Median House Value: $100,500
Racial Makeup: White (94%); Hispanic
(3%); Asian (2%); Black (1%)
Bush/Cheney better begin now BEGGGING for a Republican Congress. Any bills written by Republicans will be DOA. Time for Bush to get serious. A Republican President without a Republican Congress = very few accomplishments.
Bush/Cheney better begin now BEGGGING for a Republican Congress. Any bills written by Republicans will be DOA. Time for Bush to get serious. A Republican President without a Republican Congress = very few accomplishments.
Don't expect any DemocRATs to make GWB look good, as the Republicans did for Clintooon. Time for Bush to mention how the Republican Congress was responible for the economy, NOT Clinton/Gore.
Some good news:
(1) Last Zogby poll gives Pubs a 7.5% edge over Dems in people's national preference in Congressional races. If accurate, that's huge.
(2) Al Gore is Al Gore.
(3) George Bush is George Bush
Bump
Strange, no mention of Minnesota 4, a seat opening up after the retirement of Bruce Vento(D).
The Republican candidate is Linda Runbeck.
The Democrats will select their candidate from a crowded field of three next month after a long primary campaign. That candidate will be credible and strong.
A third party candidate, selected by Governor Ventura, will also be in the race. His name is Tom Foley, and he is a former Democrat with a strong resume [FoleyforCongress], probably more qualified than the eventual Democrat candidate. He could win, or throw the race to Runbeck.
In any event, this race is wide open and could easily switch to the GOP side.
Gump
Democrats have targeted Hostettler because of the support he gets from GOA. He has fought the "good fight" on behave of the Second Amendment. Let us not forget him when GOA-Political Victory Fund raising letters are received...
People in these swing districts should call these campaigns and volunteer on phones, handing out literature, putting signs up, etc. We must win the WH and Congress in order to have a real effect.
I think Rogers will clean Byrum's clock. Rogers has already been endorsed by his Democratic challenger from his last state election. Byrum is more of a "career politician" than Rogers. Plus, given Bush's lead over Algore, his turnout alone should bump Rogers over the top. One less Dem seat to worry about.
Interesting how this article claimed 7K turned out for Bush's East Lansing rally last Saturday. The local media claimed 2K, with the whacko-leftist State News claiming a mixed reaction (there might have been 20 whacko protesters present). My own meager experience in estimating crowds (from sporting events and concerts) would say 5K were there. Who knows the truth...
Mike Davis
We have a good shot at picking up Virginia's 2nd District, an open seat, vacated by a retiring D.
Any idea how the Fletcher/Baesler race in KY is going?
Strangely, this article omits the race in Texas' 4th District, where Dem. Rep. Ralph M. Hall has a serious challenger in strongly pro-2nd Amendment Jon Newton (newton4congress.com).
This is the most Republican district in the U.S. to have a Democratic congressman, and the race is certainly up for grabs.
I'd like to see republican Phil Sudan oust the incumbent liberal democrat Ken Bentsen in the Texas 25th district!
This article details the best opportunity for Constitutionally focused third parties like the Constitution Party and the Libertarian party.
Imagine a House where the Republicrats don't have a majority, but where they must rely on a coalition with a constitutionally based group to advance their agenda.
Unfortunately, here's the score for the "Decisive Dozen" for constitutionally focused third parties:
Arkansas district 4 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Arkansas district 4 - Libertarian Party - no candidate
California district 27 - Constitution Party - no candidate
California district 27 - Libertarian Party - Ted Brown
California district 27 - Constitution Party - no candidate
California district 27 - Libertarian Party - Daniel Sherman
Florida district 8 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Florida district 8 - Libertarian Party - no candidate
Illinois district 10 - Constitution Party - no state party website
Illinois district 10 - Libertarian Party - Alan Perlman
Indiana district 8 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Indiana district 8 - Libertarian Party - Thomas Tindle
Kentucky district 6 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Kentucky district 6 - Libertarian Party - no candidate
Michigan district 8 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Michigan district 8 - Libertarian Party - James Parry Eyster
Montana at large - Constitution Party - no candidate
Montana at large - Libertarian Party - James Tikalsky
New Jersey district 12 - Constitution Party - no web site
New Jersey district 12 - Libertarian Party - Worth Winslow
Pennsylvania district 13 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Pennsylvania district 13 - Libertarian Party - Ken Cavanaugh
Washington district 2 - Constitution Party - no candidate
Washington district 2 - Libertarian Party - Stuart Andrews
All these seats are important. Washington's district 2 was held by Jack Metcalf, and if I remember, he cosponsored a bunch of Ron Paul's proposals, including the one to eliminate current executive orders that violate the constitution.
So we have two pontential third parties whose focus is constitutional and in 12 key House races, one party has no candidates and the other is only entering 75% of the races, but they are spending funds that they could concentrate on those races on a Presidential run which even their own candidate says will not win the White House.
(1) Last Zogby poll gives Pubs a 7.5% edge over Dems in people's national preference in Congressional races. If accurate, that's huge.
That is huge...they won in '94 going into the election a couple of points down in most Congressional Preference Polls.
I live in Virginia's Second District and our Democrat Congressman is retiring, the GOP will take that seat with Ed Schrock and the dems will never get it back.
I don't think 12 is a large enough number of "key" races. I can think of at least 4 districts in Indiana [10 total] that could go either way - 2nd, 8th, 9th, and 10th.
Here's the link . . . CLICK HERE
Hall, for some reason, is a survivor. A pain in our Texas pubbie butts but a survivor.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
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