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SEOUL - An intelligence report prepared by the U.S. military command here warns of a rising North Korean threat, appearing to contradict the optimism generated by the June summit talks between the leaders of South and North Korea.
The North has ''an offensive military capability designed to prosecute a short and violent war,'' according to a document titled ''North Korean Threat'' that was compiled by the intelligence section of the U.S. command here.
North Korean troops, the report said, could overwhelm South Korean and U.S. troops ''and occupy the Korean Peninsula'' before reinforcements arrived from the United States.
Although the document was prepared shortly before the South Korean president, Kim Dae Jung, held talks with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, in June, U.S. military officials say the only update it needs would be reports on the latest North Korean exercises.
State Department officials denied that the view of the U.S. military command conflicted with statements of complete support for Kim Dae Jung's efforts at rapprochement offered by the U.S. ambassador in Seoul, Stephen Bosworth.
Mr. Bosworth has made a number of speeches in which he has aligned the United States firmly with South Korean government policy.
''No one has ever minimized the existence of a potential military threat,'' a State Department spokesman in Washington said this week. ''Their million men under arms haven't gone away.''
The goal, he said, is ''reduction in tensions.''
Nonetheless, U.S. military analysts have cited what they say is ''a high level of activity'' by North Korean military units since the summit meeting.
A veteran analyst who asked not to be identified said that the summit talks had had no impact on North Korean military behavior. He saw nonstop North Korean exercises as fitting in with a pattern that has puzzled and alarmed the command here in ''an unusually active year'' for North Korean forces.
While Kim Dae Jung presses the North to open a dialogue on military issues, the U.S. command maintains in its report that powerful North Korean forces conducted the largest military exercises in recent years last winter and could quickly overrun the South.
Explaining the apparent difference in emphasis between U.S. military and diplomatic officials, a U.S. military analyst described the State and Defense departments as ''different institutions with understandably different priorities.''
The U.S. military assessment reflects the view of officers that President Kim may compromise defense capabilities by scaling down joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises and calling for ''mutual withdrawal'' of forces from along the Demilitarized Zone that has divided the peninsula since the Korean War.
Although some military observers say the U.S. command has a vested interest in perpetuating a presence that has steadily diminished since the Korean War, U.S. analysts suspect that the North supports Kim Dae Jung's proposal for building new railroad and highway links between the two Koreas as a way to open up an invasion route to the South. This week, one cited the view of Jee Man Won, a leading South Korean defense analyst, that such links would pave the way ''for a possible North Korean invasion'' in which Pyongyang's troops could quickly surround Seoul.
Over the past few years, the U.S. report said, the North has steadily moved military units south toward the Demilitarized Zone so that ''today, 70 percent of all combat forces are south of a line between Pyongyang and Wonsan or 100 kilometers from the DMZ.'' Pyongyang is the North's capital; Wonsan is a major port on the east coast.
President Kim, in his quest for reconciliation with North Korea, has been frustrated as he tries to negotiate a reduction in the threat posed by North Korea's military establishment, which includes 1.2 million troops and is nearly twice as large as South Korea's armed forces.
Kim Jong Il, whose power rests mainly in his position as chairman of the national defense commission, agreed last week on a vague reference to military discussion after receiving the South's unification minister, Park Jae Kyu.
Kim Dae Jung has sought to convince South Koreans of the significance of the reference. Stressing the need for a military hot line and other measures, he observed in a television interview that ''South and North can live with a sense of security only when soldiers who have guns and bayonets cooperate for peace.''
Mr. Kim has said he believes that U.S. troops should remain in Korea, but U.S. military analysts believe he would favor reducing their numbers if North Korea entered a military dialogue.
When the North discusses military issues, U.S. analysts say, a primary goal will be to negotiate the withdrawal of the U.S. 2d Infantry Division, the forwardmost U.S. combat unit in the region, with 15,000 troops defending the main invasion route to Seoul.
U.S. officers were alarmed by Kim Dae Jung's acquiescence to North Korean protests against a joint exercise called Ulchi Focus Lens, in which U.S. and South Korean soldiers play war games primarily with the aid of computers, according to U.S. military sources in Seoul.
They also were disturbed by the failure of the South Korean government to support the use by the U.S. Air Force of a range for strafing and bombing in the village of Maehyangri, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Seoul. The command reluctantly stopped using the range after protests by local residents, supported by groups calling for withdrawal of all 37,000 U.S. troops from Korea.
In an apparent effort to head off demands for stopping all war games, General Thomas Schwartz, the top U.S. commander in Korea, has argued emphatically for U.S.-South Korean exercises.
''Good training is what will keep this alliance together in the future,'' he stated this week in the magazine Korus, published by the command.
South Korean officials said they were worried about how to respond when confronted with a North Korean demand to call off the next U.S.-South Korean exercise, Foal Eagle, later this year.
Lee Hoi Chang, leader of the opposition Grand National Party, which holds the largest single bloc of National Assembly seats, strongly defended military exercises.
''I believe the government policy of controlling exercises is not right,'' said Mr. Lee. ''We will need military exercises in order to defend security.'' The South should only scale them down, he said, ''in parallel'' with reduction on the North Korean side.
When I read that North Korea could overwhelm US and South Korean troops, I have to smile at such nonsense. We've been there for 55 years. If South Korea along with 37,000 American troops can't defend the place, then there's hope for them. Let's pull our troops out now and quit wasting the tax payer's money. The fact is this "North Korea" hysteria is just another ploy for more lavish military expenditures and another rationale for this stratospheric Moginot Line boondoggle. Maybe it's time to quit trying to save the world and use our military to defend our own country.
Are you a neo nazi or any type of nazi Horst? Or did you pick your name at random? Nazis are NOT welcome on Free Republic.
"When I read that North Korea could overwhelm US and South Korean troops, I have to smile at such nonsense. We've been there for 55 years. If South Korea along with 37,000 American troops can't defend the place, then there's hope for them. Let's pull our troops out now and quit wasting the tax payer's money. The fact is this "North Korea" hysteria is just another ploy for more lavish military expenditures and another rationale for this stratospheric Moginot Line boondoggle. Maybe it's time to quit trying to save the world and use our military to defend our own country."
When they come--and they will--the North will use CBW and nuclear weapons. They will be supported/supplemented by ChiCom regular troops. They will over-run the South, kill thousands of American troops, and occupy Seoul...If they just don't nuke it into a glass parking lot.
This is now inevitable.
See This thread for the reason why.
--Boris
I see a "Seoul Snatch" operation as most likely. It would be the most massive "hostage taking" in history, would steal the crown jewel and capitol of Korea, solve the N. Korean supply problem etc. The ROK would hesitate to attempt to recapture Seoul by force if it would be reduced to rubble, and would likely negotiate a new arrangement. This is what the N. Koreans would be counting on.
"Overwhelm?" Not on your sweet "bippy." With Nucs, I can see them getting to the gates of Seoul, but at a terrible price. I have walked the DMZ, and am impressed with the South's fortification efforts. They are a force to be contended with. However, the North is ruled by a certified "nut," fully capable of launching an attack.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
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