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Beijing’s dithering over allowing Washington access to the crew of a U.S. EP-3E surveillance aircraft held on China’s Hainan Island may reflect an internal power struggle between China’s military and civilian leadership. Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said April 3 he hoped a solution for the situation would be found soon. Tang said the issue would likely have little effect on relations between Beijing and Washington and reiterated Beijing’s claim the Navy plane caused the midair collision with a Chinese Jian-8 April 1.
Tang’s comments reveal Beijing’s dilemma in dealing with the collision’s aftermath. China’s leaders want to brush aside the incident before it has an impact on China’s economic and foreign relations. But Beijing must deal with internal factions, particularly among military leaders exploiting the situation for their own agendas.
The Bush administration's tough statements have reopened a debate in Beijing over how China should deal with Washington. China’s military leaders have been concerned about the U.S. sale of advanced Aegis anti-missile destroyers to Taiwan, while the new administration looks toward Beijing as its primary strategic opponent. Moreover, a debate between military and civilian leaders in Beijing is being renewed: How should the People’s Liberation Army fit into China’s economic and foreign policy plans?
Chinese President Jiang Zemin recently said the PLA’s major role is dealing with China’s internal stability. Jiang said the world situation was “favorable” for China to focus on “modernization building,” allowing the military to offer assistance to local governments to ensure social stability, according to Hong Kong’s Wen Wei Po. While the PLA emphasizes its loyalty to the Communist Party with Jiang Zemin at its core, the military is concerned Jiang’s focus on China’s economic reforms and opening undermines military and party strength.
Over the past two decades, the People’s Liberation Army has been pared from 4 million active-duty servicemen to just 2.5 million, which has meant a loss of political clout for the PLA in formulating China’s internal planning and foreign relations. In addition, the PLA has been cut out of its business operations, making it more dependent financially on the central government.
To regain internal leverage over policy decisions and funding, the PLA has exploited international tensions, including raising the apparent threat posed by Taiwan and the United States. The PLA has apparently forced the central political leadership’s hand in the current potential crisis with the United States, as well.
After colliding with a Chinese Jian-8, the U.S. EP-3E performed an emergency landing at Lingshui military air base. Armed Chinese troops boarded the EP-3E to remove the U.S. crew. U.S. military sources maintain the EP-3E has been covered with some kind of obscurant to prevent spy satellites and other intelligence gathering tools from seeing what the Chinese are doing. They contend U.S. fears that the aircraft and its components will be compromised are being realized. Sources say the Chinese military forces are taking the plane apart piece by piece. Pentagon officials believe it is likely they will never see the aircraft again.
Beijing is clearly struggling to get a grip on a course of action. The accident likely resulted from a decision in Beijing to fly closer and more aggressively toward U.S. surveillance aircraft. In its attempt to cover its own likely culpability for the accident, Beijing blamed Washington, saying the unpredictable actions of the EP-3E crew caused the collision. This line, however, opened the door for the PLA to exploit the situation and grab for control in Beijing.
By boarding the EP-3E, the military severely constrained the options of Beijing’s political leadership. Unable to undo the military’s actions, the central government was forced to stick to its public line that the collision was the U.S. pilot’s fault while internally debating what course should be taken next.
The civilian leadership is attempting to send reassuring signs to Washington and Europe that it will not allow tensions to escalate further. While saying he wanted a quick solution, Tang also said Beijing must “give an explanation to the Chinese people,” suggesting Washington look to China’s ultimate actions rather than the rhetoric being spread inside China.
Beijing is using current tensions with Washington to redirect the focus of China’s population away from internal economic troubles toward an outside hegemonic aggressor. Beijing must balance the internal rhetoric with reassurances to the international community that doesn’t intend to end its economic reform and opening.
China’s leaders find themselves in a difficult situation. Beijing’s civilian leadership cannot allow the PLA to continue to interject into foreign policy without risking losing control over international relations. The PLA’s latest power play will likely lead to stricter central government restrictions on the PLA’s contact with foreign – particularly American – military assets.
1.2 Billion people and not a decent hairstylist among them!
Have you seen this guys hairdoo?
1.2 billion people? They still ain't beat McDonalds!
Bomb China
If the US crew did the job the are TRAINED and ORDERED to do, then all the Chinese are getting is a bunch of damaged computers and 40 YEAR OLD propeller driven aircraft technology.
As long as the Classified info was destroyed, the best the Chinese will get is knowledge of how the two radomes on the top and the bottom of the plane work.
Frighteningly enough, he looks like a Vietnamese guy I used to work for. And from what I've heard about Jiang, they have about the same attitude towards everyone that's not them.
ROFLOL!!!!! On a more serious note, I have heard 2 things this morning:
1. The Foreign Minister ? has summoned our ambassador to Beijing...and is demanding that the US apologize and take full responsibility for this "incident".
2. Jemin has left the country on a 2-week trip to some other country. Signalling that our men and women are not coming home anytime soon. (at least, that's what the reporter said.)
SEND THEM HOME, NOW!!!!!!
Maybe he doesn't want to be there when the $H!T hits the fan.
Oh and I forgot to add; double the surveillance flights and add Fighter Escorts.
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!
I know machinist (not engineers) who can take a piece of extruded plastic, injection molded plastic, stamped part, or other tool and die molded/fabricated piece and just by measuring it and "looking" at it... re-create tooling o produce it. Keep in mind that these guys know the expansion rates of materials and such.. the craft (knowledge) of how to make the stuff that makes stuff work.
As a programmer, I can use a multitude of debuggers, both in-process and out-of-process to watch which apis and IOs are being called... and get what is an "order of operations" to borrow from toolists as to how the process is accomplished.
What is probable is that the chineese will conceptualize the approach from our model, and then replicate a model not "exactly" as we have, but similar in "order of operations" functionality.
The question then is: "will there be an infrastructure capable of implementing and supporting a similar project as NSA/Naval Intel?" (will it get funding?)
INTEL is cheap when it comes to the costs of replacing a single B2, a carrier, or trade secrets. Going forward the question is... "will the chinese build a similar system based on functionality?"
One thing is for sure, the US command structure is firm, Bush speaks and that is the "marching orders."
I wonder if any agreements can be made with a nation that does not have the institutional order to respect and implement agreements.
There seems to be a vacumn of leadership and power in China, a country like a boat without a rudder, discussions on navigation are difficult when a boat has no rudder.
This is gonna be interesting... imagine a country with 1.2 billion people with crummy haircuts and no institutionalized power and organization... now that is scary.... (referring to the haircuts.)
BTW All the machinist I knew, all of them "patented" genuis's.. were not engineers. Machinists......
Would it have been appropriate for Soviet Russia to bomb us when we spent 9 wks dismanteling a MIG-25 Foxbat which had landed Japan in the Cold War ?
I take it you (nor any of your kin) is on active duty right now. Reckless jingoism isn't exactly the best path right now ?
AMEN!!! SEND THEM HOME.....NOW!!!!
I view the above report as a very sophisticated arguement as to why the U.S. should back down and apologize or some equivalent. The theory advanced is that if we prostrate ourselves before this aggression, then the political leaders will be strengthened and will tell the PLA never to do this again.
The opposite is true. If the U.S. acquiecses, the PLA will say to the political leaders: see, it worked!
The many theories advanced over the past decade, to include "engagement" are, in my view, rationalizations for dealing with a gang of totalitariian thugs. The arguements are advanced by all who have either a political or economic interest in dealing with the devil: Bejing political leaders, Hong Kong business people, Rupert Murdoch, Fortune 500 corporations, European countries and companies trying to sell their wares; the list is lengthy.
The domestic U.S. political pressure to bend to Bejing's will is enormous. This is a test of GW's ability to stand up to this pressure. When the President of IBM calls to whine about their exposure in China, GW will need to resond: the nation has higher priorities.
This piece is very slick. It is yet another example of what we're up against here.
"Reckless jingoism isn't exactly the best path now?"
Neither is reckless apeasement and delay. What most of us forget is that the Chicoms don't think like we do, or have the same value towards life. (look at their abortion policy)
The Chinese committed an overt act of war, and the hammer should quickly fall. The first priority should be to launch a Tomahawk strike and destroy the aircraft in place.
If the sovereignty of this nation is not respected, then all other relations are pointless.
Sorry, folks, the STRATFOR report contains a major error, leading me to question the validity of their report. Let's just say I've seen the overhead shots of the EP-3 on the ground at Hainan...the aircraft has NOT, repeat, has NOT been convered with a tarp, nor have the Chinese used obscurants to defeat our coverage. Their exploitation of the aircraft is being conducted entirely in the open. Also, "reverse-engineering" is the wrong term...you reverse engineer something after you've analyzed and duplicated the technology. The Chinese are very early in the exploitation phase right now...reverse engineering is a process that would take several years to complete...
Would it have been appropriate for Soviet Russia to bomb us when we spent 9 wks dismanteling a MIG-25 Foxbat which had landed Japan in the Cold War ?
That MIG-25 was flown there by a Soviet military pilot defector, Vicktor Belenko.
Our aircraft was forced down by Chinese actions - intentional or not. It landed in Hainan because of the ensuing emergency apparently caused by gross Chinese negligence in International Airspace. It also may have been ordered to land by the remaining Chinese fighter. The crew did not defect and the aircraft is considered a US military asset and sovereign instrument under International Law.
The situations are not comparable in the least.
"and reiterated Beijing’s claim the Navy plane caused the midair collision with a Chinese Jian-8 April 1. "
The key is why reiterate!!!! There is no first jet! It is like trying to destroy a time to foul up a prosecution.Did the money pass hands for the pardon a year before, why keep spinning the time line. Why keep spining the first jet? No mention of the pilot until today in the China press. Why may we never see the p-3 to see the damage to the propeller??????
Why not send the Nationals home, freeze assets, kick out the PRC from the Panama Canal, so what if I cant but toys and fireworks at wallmart.
We can stop the arguement, and send the nationals back to their communist Sh*t hole!
Stratfor makes errors?
Why should we give a rip whether there is a power struggle between the army & business leaders within China? That's not our problem.
I know the business uber alles crowd advises otherwise, but the US cannot afford to try to finesse this situation. It must deal with China as a single (despotic) entity. To do otherwise will only serve to tie our foreign policy in knots and make us look like impotent fools. Haven't we learned anything from history?
China committed what is internationally recognized as an illegal act and must move to make things right immediately.
don't understand confusion of reverse engineering.. maybe I spelled it incorrectly?
I would reply mo-skeeter.. but I'm delving into the zen of abstract conceptualizations of paradigmatic representations of utilitarian approaches to synthesis of epistomoligical understanding of the square root of poodlebite.
Software engineering research has focused primarily on software construction, neglecting software maintenance and evolution. Observed is a shift in research from synthesis to analysis. The process of reverse engineering is introduced as an aid in program understanding. This process is concerned with the analysis of existing software systems to make them more understandable for maintenance, re-engineering, and evolution purposes. Presented is reverse engineering technology developed as part of the Rigi project. The Rigi approach involves the identification of software artifacts in the subject system and the aggregation of these artifacts to form more abstract system representations. Early industrial experience has shown that software engineers using Rigi can quickly build mental models from the discovered abstractions that are compatible with the mental models formed by the maintainers of the underlying software.
Why should we give a rip whether there is a power struggle between the army & business leaders within China? That's not our problem.
Understanding their situation may help us to find the solution.
And the "tool and diemakers" are at the top of that heap.
Check out this thread "BUSH HAS A PROBLEM ON HOW TO DEAL WITH BEIJING",
it has some of the most in depth analysis of trends and scenarios. It's long but worth wading through I think.
I would reply mo-skeeter.. but I'm delving into the zen of abstract conceptualizations of paradigmatic representations of utilitarian approaches to synthesis of epistomoligical understanding of the square root of poodlebite.
This may well end up one of my favorite replies of all time.
Regards, taxbreak.
(P.S. One of my favorite folks on the planet is a man who can do ANYTHING as a rule but was kind enough once to handtool--at his machinist shop--an old hunk of airplane part perfectly sized for me to punch out felts for the piano I was fixing up. Flies planes, sails ships, has the best kit and a tool for every possible contingency ... a real renaissance man.)
If China decides to take Taiwan, its over. Taiwan, even aided with US defenses, would succumb to China in a matter of days. I think the world is naive to think otherwise.
Red China's response will be the usual: a myriad. Enabling many interpretations, it is meant to consume energy. It is meant to cause pain.
The loss of their pilot is meaningless to the state, except for his (or her) political value; with possibly another exception for the loss of life in one or more families, for which the people should hold their masters accountable, because the pilot was doing as their masters ordered.
Their way: Individuality is granted. No authority derives from the people in Red China. Even emotions are granted.
All Red Chinese know that they exist at the pleasure of their ruler(s).
And now, our airmen and women are such rulers' slaves, too.
All bow to the Middle Kingdom. Same old. Same old.
There is almost never "resolution" until the change in the political balance between all the immediately affected lords is settled.
When our plane landed in Hainan, that realm's bosses gained "face," and by necessity will exploit same. And because all operatives in socialism exist by a "credit system" of points gained or lost by their actions-and-worth, the plane's landing instantly caused a kind of "uproar."
Oh ... on the surface, everything is "inscrutable." (sp?) But all parties began to sweat, as the plane's arrival caused the giant chess game which has been China in perpetuity, to move, once again, a piece on the board.
Usually in Red China, such pieces move s-l-o-w-l-y, almost unnoticeably. And all players are happy to let outside incidents, such as the current "crisis" to "liven things up a little bit."
The arrival of that EP-3 is entertainment; the game is accelerated momentarily. And the players whose many hidden strategies had lain waiting, are somewhat lured but also exposed by the sudden movement.
It's a chess game. The incident has caused the move of a piece on the board, which movement is relatively substantial. And in Red China, that is a very big deal.
They're playing a game and until the movement(s) resume the normal "long march" across the board, not much is going to happen by our standards.
Those players have got to settle themselves with what will now be their new plans for, if this then that. And there are so many vectors involved, there's alot of calculating to do.
All the while appearing to be unflustered, inscrutable, and in charge.
Give the Red Chinese an inch ... and they'll take that inch. (See U.S. spy plane lands in China after collision.)
Look at a map. See that blue stuff around Taiwan? That's called WATER. It's wet. You can't walk across it (well, there was a guy in Israel a couple millenia ago who could, but he left and didn't tell us when he'd be back). The Chinese would either have to take boats across (and deal with the fact that it takes 5-10 hours to cross, and people are trying to kill them ll the way to Taiwan), or fly airplanes across (and deal with the fact that people are trying to kill them all the way to Taiwan). This is what the USMC calls a "forcible entry assault" and is NOT an easy task to accomplish.
If the US jumps in, the PRC is f*cked.
What is probable is that the chineese will conceptualize the approach from our model, and then replicate a model not "exactly" as we have, but similar in "order of operations" functionality.
The chinese have always been really, really good at copying things. They would have been happy just to have burnt, water soaked chards of that aircraft.
You have many interesting insights.
I am troubled, however, at what seem to be perpetual attempts to characterize China and the Chinese as somehow different than the rest of humanity, somehow special, somehow deserving of kid gloved treatment, a "pass", a turning of the cheek.
I, for one, don't care what game they are playing with each other, how old their culture is (though they seem to have obliterated memory of the best of that culture from the people's consciousness), how slowy decisions get made, etc.
China is but one nation, which the U.S. should relate to using standards that we hold dear: respect for the law, democracy, human rights, commercial reliability and transparency, etc. If they won't conduct themselves by the rules of a civilized society, and our standards are universal not Western in origin, then we should pull back and treat them as a nation that is dangerous. Otherwise we will continue to be burned until they gain a huge advantage.
I view this as a freedom versus totalitarianism issue. It has nothing to do with culture or race.
China served Nixon's and our purpose by checkmating the Soviet Union until it fell apart. Carrying on trade with a totalitarian regime only strengthens its resolve. We have been so naive, and our principles so easily bought.
The difference is the defector makes a conscious decision to renounce his allegiance to his former state and to deliver some valuable technology to his new country. The chinese have committed what amounts to an act of piracy if not an outright act of aggression.
The chinese have already engaged the US in "war by other means". Either we smack them in some way now or confront the prospects of armed conflict in the near future.
If you mean that that technology will be more important... Yes... from sintering to looking at how the tooling marks were left in Ultra High Moleculer Weight Plastics, to seeing how wiring harness's were installed... Yeah.... That is what they will adopt.
Now on the other hand if it had landed in cuba they would have repaired it with bamboo Gilligan Islands Style and then used it as a taxi.
Remember "all" of us strive to "adopt succesful dress, habits, holding a fork, the lastest fashions, fashionable vernacular, education, etc.... We adopt what we deem useful and discard the rest... Nobody would re-build a new system with bad ideas... but is willing to incorporate better ones.
The PRA is also a business, contrary to getting a pay raise like Dubya/Cheney gave them, the PRA has to get most of its own money... their is a surprisingly weak central government when you factor how those two institutions relate.
If I were the PRA I would start selling EP3's... instead of selling those stupid haircutting things that you hook up to vacumn cleaners that give these people such horrible hairdooos... I mean, maybe the PRA would not be so grouchy if it had a reasonable product to sell.... but vacumn cleaner do-it-yerself hairdoo mechanisms???? I mean out of christian charity we should of mowed down a jet with our turbo-prop sooner and landed the plane to create a PRA enterprise zone.
Seriously... these people launced a Chicomnaut.
Damn strnge people... build vacumn cleaner haircutter stuff and manned space vehicles.... just can;'t figure em out.
See #25, please join the discussion.
I also believe we have moved way too fast. Furthermore ---
The Clinton-Red China-Indonesia deal was about the following:
Clinton praises oil deal that bypasses Russia and Iran [ABC News 11/18/99]
"Odd" how Clinton promotes idea that we should not be wary of Russian nuclear weapons, but we should be wary of running an oil pipeline through Russian-controlled territories: Russia Route Best for Kazakhstan Oil, Russian Official Says [Bloomberg.com 05/18/2000]
Washington Prepares to Relax Position Toward Tripoli [Stratfor.com 03/23/2000]
Energy Information Administration's [Report on Red] China [April 2000]
James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, at Rice University, "China's Growing Energy Dependence"
"Some analysts worry that China's dependence on the same energy supplies as its neighbors and Western industrial nations will prompt heightened competition in the energy arena and drive Asian regional arms races. Kent Calder notes that "Expansionist, confrontationist strategies, not to mention the acquisition of nuclear weapons, offer some attractive prospects of gain to regional powers, such as preferential access to energy resources and sea lanes in the South China Sea. The costs of armament and preparation for war, conversely, become less onerous as East Asia grows increasingly affluent. This combination of wealth and bellicosity is a recipe for disaster." But such predictions have already missed the mark on several counts and are likely to continue to do so."
Red China desires to become the controlling supplier of the largest cheap-labor pool to the world. Red China's greatest resource is cheap-labor; as oil is to the Arabs.
And many parties who would profit greatly, are helping Red China along. Not to mention how the Clinton Administration "strapped" Russia with loan after loan, which has helped Russia to struggle even harder to pay off her debts; she is as a credit-card owner who is seduced by yet more credit-card "pre-approved" applications.
We should be properly assisting Russia. And we should not be timid with the Red Chinese; which behavior they loath and will not respect.
Give the Red Chinese an inch ... and they'll take that inch.
P.S. Red China needs electricity to power its destiny, which is howcome there's all this trans-Eurasia oil, gas (and nuclear) infrastructure under development. The western spigot is planned to be at the Adriatic. The eastern spigots are the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea. And so, such territory is contested. "Everybody" wants a piece of the action; and that is why "we" are in the Balkans.
____
From John McCaslin's "Inside the Beltway Column," The Washington Times, April 4, 2001 [online]; also posted to FR as Inside the Beltway/Political tidbits and other shenanigans from around the nation's capital ---
[Tom] Harkin over oilWe have to laugh at Sen. Tom Harkin, Iowa Democrat, for railing against "big oil" as the "most outrageous proof that the Republicans are rewarding their wealthiest contributors."
After all, Inside the Beltway can't help but recall when oil financier Roger Tamraz a few years ago gave $30,000 to the Iowa Democratic Party at the request, reporters discovered, of Mr. Harkin.
Worse yet, Mr. Tamraz at the time lobbied Mr. Harkin's wife, Ruth, who headed the Overseas Private Investment Corp., on behalf of a proposed oil-pipeline project between the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. [bold, mine - F_S]
Finally, after the oil baron's meeting with Mrs. Harkin, President Clinton, against the advice of his National Security Council, met privately with Mr. Tamraz in the White House.
In a letter dated March 15, Mr. Harkin blasts "big oil, including Vice President Dick Cheney's old outfit, the Haliburton oil services company, [which] stands to realize enormous profits" if drilling were to be allowed in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
____
See Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections for an excellent resource on news and info on the topic(s).
____
The Clinton Administration and the Clintons and their friends were bought by the Red Chinese to bypass the Former Soviet Union, a.k.a. Russia, and Iran.
The entire mess in the news, is about the energy transmission business and everybody who wants some of the action as well as having the lines of transmission traveling through their sphere(s) of influence.
And the reason I posted the story about Senator Harkin, was again:
"...Harkin's wife, Ruth, who headed the Overseas Private Investment Corp., on behalf of a proposed oil-pipeline project between the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea."
...as an example of the Clintonistas having their hands in it.
The amount of American business involved in this kind of thing is staggering, literally, bearing down upon the U.S. economy ... and upon the stock markets.
What American investors thought would be a return on investment with e-commerce and the internet, they would be surprised to learn how much more of their money has been invested in this energy-internet-work ... with the return as much in doubt, now.
Imagine what will happen when the momentum of everything going into it (such as substantial supplies from computing network suppliers based in San Francisco, CA) ... should begin to stall.
This is what is wrong with the Council on Foreign Relations and other think-tanks which believe that economic in-roads will change Red China, because the people will gain political strength through their economic gain.
Really?
What this plan forgets is that there is no political mechanism by which individuality can relieve itself of state authority in Red China, and proceed to establish a justice system which is responsible to the peoples' assemblies.
All people in Red China exist --- though they appear to be individuals --- at the pleasure of the supreme warlords, no matter how such masters current label themselves with communisms, and no matter what variations on earth-tone colors mark their suits.
All serve the rulers. And all outsiders are compromised, who would make a trade, a deal, with such rulers.
Certainly economic improvement has the potential for providing improvements to the Chinese peoples' lives and livelihoods. But what is lacking, is the authority of the people, such as is required to establish a system of justice which answers NOT to the communist/socialists.
A free economy and a reliable, trusted judicial system, which answers to the people and their elected representatives ... is a requirement for us to do business there, reasonably and practically.
And nothing in all our dealings with Red China, is about that. Rather, the view from here tends strongly to open Red China as a market.
Short-term thinking; not the kind of thing which will achieve the alleged dreams of the CFR-types, nor the better intentions of those of us thinking about the Chinese peoples' individual liberty.
Sadly, we seem to be willing to deal with the mainland, not because there is a larger labor pool there for making goods at cheap costs ... but rather, because we have trembled at the thought of defending freedom, and Taiwan.
And the mainland rulers know this; they can't be absolutely sure to act on that basis; but they know that America's defense of Taiwan would be limited to only responded to sudden and harsh treatment of Taiwan by the Red Chinese.
Short of that, the Red Chinese rule.
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GW has the right instincts to handle this correctly. Unfortunately, on this topic, China, he is likely receiving poor advice from his father, whose views on the subject are sycophantic.
Economic sanctions can be immediately applied. Also, Most Favored Nation status should be revoked.
Would it have been appropriate for Soviet Russia to bomb us when we spent 9 wks dismanteling a MIG-25 Foxbat which had landed Japan in the Cold War ?
We didn't intercept the Mig in international airspace, have a trained monkey crash a sh*tbox obselecent "airplane" into it and force it to land. It was voluntarily delivered to us by a soviet escapee.
I take it you (nor any of your kin) is on active duty right now. Reckless jingoism isn't exactly the best path right now?
"Active DUTY" is precisely what it is. It ain't a social club, a dating service for ugly women -- and/or edjakashion-gittin' gig.
<<"Would it have been appropriate for Soviet Russia to bomb us when we spent 9 wks dismantling a MIG-25 Foxbat which had landed Japan in the Cold War ?">>
Just one thing you are forgetting. The incident you are taking about was a defection. The latest was an act of aggression and hostility that force the plane to land against it's crews wishes.
<<"If the US jumps in, the PRC is f*cked.">>
Taiwan could be flattened and invaded before the US armed forces could decide whether to ask NATO's permission to say something nasty. Get real. The only forces we have proved ourselves against were little, poor countries and it still took us multiple bombs to blow up one tractor convoy. As in Somalia, Haiti and others, we get chased out and then try to down play it. Look at our latest fiasco in Iraq. Against stationary targets our kill percentage was miserable.
I certainly hope President bush will do something dramatic to up-grade our military capability and institute a plan to keep our nose out of everyone else's business.
"Walk softly and Carry A Big Stick."
Would you TERRIBLY mind explaining just how all those soldiers China has WALK across the friggin' Taiwan Strait?
**1.2 Billion people and not a decent hairstylist among them!**
Yeah. But they do HAVE hair.
Would it have been appropriate for Soviet Russia to bomb us when we spent 9 wks dismanteling a MIG-25 Foxbat which had landed Japan in the Cold War ?
But we put back together in perfect working order :).
I just hope our crew doesn't "defect" after their "reeducation" training.
But we put back together in perfect working order
Yep...those crates worked perfectly at holding all the little pieces parts...
As far as I'm concerned, the aircraft is a write-off. It's gone, and there's no bringing it back (unless they have a lot of crates available. Hopefully, their technology gain from the aircraft will be minimal, and the damage done to our intelligence systems will be minimal. I don't know that that's the case, but I can hope.
All I'd like now is to have the aircrew returned.
kkkkkkk
I'm sure they did a good job of destroying the stuff they could get at. I fear however that some "good stuff" is outside the crew compartment. That would be inside the "canoe" radomes on the top and bottom of the aircraft, and perhaps under the tailcone and nosecone/radome. Although the latter may have been damaged by the collision.
The stuff inside those radomes would be almost all hardware, special "front ends" for the various receivers, possibly electronically steerable phased array control electronics and so forth. There might be some relatively low tech, or at any rate available from open sources, software in dedicated controllers. (Actually it would be the algorithms that the software implements that would be open source, and the software would be strictly machine code..I hope)
For a picture of the damage to the prop, see:
http://home.wxs.nl/~p3orion/hainan.html
The pictures of course come from Chinese sources, in this case Xinhua news service, and you can go to there home page too if you like.
"1.2 Billion people and not a decent hairstylist among them!"
Your figure is obsolete. China's current population is probably closer to 1.8 billion, but nobody really knows for sure. Anyway, it's a liability, not an asset.
The man probably doesn't have much hair.
That was a defector and that was the price of admission.
Had to take it apart to ship it back, because we had nobody qualified to fly it.
No we didn't put that Mig-25 back in perfect working order. We shipped it back in several large crates, with lots of loose stuff in the crates. We learned that even though the Mig's radar put out lots of power, the range was not all that great, the extra power being used for ECCM purposes, rather than target detection. We also learned that the Soviets used alot of steel and tiatanium in the aircraft, and that the engines were good for a very few flights, epecially flights above, as I recall, Mach 2.5 or so. ONly one flight in the case of the Syrian versions which played "tag" with Israelii F-4s way back in the 60s or early 70s. See "Mig Pilot" by John Barron. Victor Belenko was the pilot of that Mig.
allowing the military to offer assistance to local governments to ensure social stability
Only in a "modern" country like China, which celebrated something like its fiftieth anniversary not too long ago.
Under Clinton of course, we shouted and traded the Big Stick, for a small twig. That and we messed in other peoples business all over the world, all the while gutting our own forces and failing to provide adequate training.
There is one way to handle commies. You walk up to them with your right hand out to shake, a smile on your face, and a bat in your left hand hidden behind your back. Just when you get close enough, you whip out the bat, bash their teeth down their throat, knock them down, and beat and beat and beat them till they slither away. China thinks because it is a 6000 year old culture that it can rest on it's laurels and handle their adversaries with a bemused smirk. Those who rest on their laurels in my opinion get eaten by the sharks. On the world stage they are an upstart and need a good spanking by the US before the monster grows any bigger.
Get real, the Russians would have been overjoyed to send a pilot to fly it back, if they could find one they'd be sure wouldn't defect. Or a ship to pick it up more or less intact. 'Course what we'd have liked to do would be to have shipped it to Wright Patterson, or maybe Edwards or some spooky place. As it was, we had to return it to avoid offending the Soviets' (and Japanese politicos') sensibilities, but while we promised to send it back, we never said that it would be in one piece.
Yeah, I know. That's why I put that little :) thing. There was a Readers Digest article a number of years ago that described the defection and what we did with the plane.
Boycott everything Chinese
I also saw the satellite photos of the plane sitting on the tarmac uncovered but that was on CNN and I don't know the date of the shots -- not that it matters at this point apart from PR purposes.
Damn them for dat 2....
When governments warmong, the militaries are like spoiled brats who then get their way and get too early into the fight. If there is one thing in our favor, it is the less and less restrained beligerance of the enemy's military after all. This should help a bit the US public get a wake up call.
In the continuing effort to make China the bogeyman of the 21st century, Washington has scored yet another coup - the loss of the EP-3E Aries II surveillance aircraft.
It's very reminiscent of the phony FBI Hanssen Spy Case. In other words, what the US Government is saying just doesn't jibe with the facts.
The implausible government story states that the Aries II aircraft was supposedly escorted by ancient Chinese F8 fighter planes to a Chinese military base at Hainan Island.
The Aries II has an electronic counter-measure capability that could completely fry the electronic components of a state-of-the-art MIG 29, let alone a vintage Chinese F-8. Its defensive capability consists of highly advanced directional microwave weaponry.
Also this US Navy aircraft uses technology that is proprietary to the National Security Agency. Most of the technology on the aircraft is electronic intercept in nature.
According to Department of Defense statements, all protocols were broken. This indicates that the incident has been staged to create a deliberate transfer of this technology. This technology is so advanced that even the NSA was queasy about giving it to the Chinese.
Since this technology is not proprietary to the Department of Defense and since the NSA directly controls the contractors who produce this equipment, there wasn't any way for those who are in favor of transferring this technology to China, as a matter of illegal covert State policy, to effect this transfer without staging an international incident. Therefore an incident had to be created to give the Chinese this technology.
Whoever was in charge of the aircraft command must have been in on it. Otherwise they would not have had the authority to circumvent the protocols, unless directly ordered to do so. The aircraft then would either be in pieces and the crew would be floating in life rafts. Or they would all be dead.
By the way, the military designation of the EP-3E Aries II aircraft is high enough that all crew members carry cyanide capsules. They must not fall into enemy hands for interrogation. And that is precisely where they are at this moment.
The Department of Defense claims they know nothing -- another bogus claim, since throughout the inside of the aircraft, there is a discreet video system which continues to broadcast.
The Defense Department