NEW YORK, April 6, 2001
(CBS) President George W. Bush's presidency is encountering rough seas, as evaluations of his handling of the economy, the environment and foreign affairs - as well as his overall job approval - have all declined in the past month.
AP President Bush
Concerns about the economy continue, largely fueled by the volatile stock market, but the public has yet to widely support tax cuts as the solution to economic and stock market instability. And the public feels their own views run completely counter to Bush's on issues related to the environment.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY
Although most Americans remain positive about the economy, a growing number hold a negative view. In this poll, 68 percent say the economy is very or fairly good, while 30 percent think it is very or fairly bad. Since last December (before Bush took office), the percentage saying the economy was in good shape has declined nearly 20 percentage points.
EVALUATION OF THE ECONOMY Now 3/01 12/00 Good 68%
74%
86%
Now 3/01 12/00 Bad 30%
24%
13%
The culprit behind this increasing pessimism is the stock market. After watching the fluctuations of the past month, a growing number of Americans view the market negatively. Now, only 38 percent think the market is in excellent, very good or fairly good shape, and a majority - 53 percent - thinks it is fairly or very bad. Those figures represent a recent reversal in opinion about the market; earlier this year, majorities felt the market was in good shape, and about a third or less felt it was bad.
Unemployment doesn't yet appear to be causing any major concerns, despite news of layoffs by many American companies. Now, 22 percent say an adult in their household has been out of work and is looking; that's actually fewer than was reported six years ago. In polls conducted in the early 1980s, about one in three Americans reported there was someone out of work in their household.
And, concern about layoffs in the coming years is lower than it was just one month ago. Now, 41 percent are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their household will lose their job in the next few years; this is down from 54 percent in March.
But fears of an economic recession remain, although at nowhere near the levels of the early 1990s: 42 percent think the U.S. is currently in a recession, and an additional 27 percent think we're nearing one. Only 25 percent think we aren't either in or near recession. These figures aren't much different from February. But it should be noted that throughout 1991, about three-quarters of the public said we were in a recession - far more than say the same today.
Some concerns about the economy may be causing Americans to tighten their belts; 41 percent say they have changed their spending habits because of concerns about the economy. This hasn't changed much in the past few months.
In terms of the near future, there is a growing view that the economy is stagnating at best, even deteriorating, rather than improving. Forty-three percent think the economy is getting worse, 44 percent think it is staying the same, and only 10 percent believe it is getting better. Those figures are not much different from last month.
There are somewhat different expectations for the stock market, perhaps because of its recent declines. The public sees some light at the end of the tunnel; 59 percent expect the market to go up in the next year or so.
TAX CUTS
Is a large tax cut the solution to current concerns about the economy? There is no public consensus on the issue. Thirty-eight percent think a large tax cut would be good for the economy, 20 percent think it would be bad, and 37 percent think it wouldn't make much difference. That's a little less enthusiasm than was seen in last month's poll, when 43 percent felt a large tax cut would be good for the economy.
EFFECT OF TAX CUT ON THE ECONOMY Now Last Month Good 38%
43%
Now Last Month Bad 20%
20%
Now Last Month No Difference 37%
33%
There are partisan differences in opinion on the impact of tax cuts. Sixty-two percent of Republicans see a large tax cut as good for the economy. But to many Democrats, the tax cut is neutral; 41 percent think it will not make much difference.
Nevertheless, support for President George W. Bush's proposed $1.6 trillion tax cut still outweighs opposition. Fifty-one percent now favor it, while 37 percent oppose it. That's slightly less support than Bush received two months ago.
BUSH'S PROPOSED TAX CUT Now 2/01 Favor 51%
55%
Now 2/01 Oppose 37%
34%
Reaction to the counterproposal made by Democrats in Congress, for a smaller scale tax cut that would take effect this year, gets somewhat less support, but fewer Americans have any opinion on this proposal. Forty-three percent favor it, 37 percent oppose it, and one in five don't know.
But when asked which proposed tax cut would be fairest to people like them, the Democrats now hold a clear advantage, a change from last month. Forty-five percent say the Democratic tax cut would be fairer to them, and 38 percent name Bush's tax cut.
There are a number of possible reasons why Bush's proposed tax cut plan has lost a bit of luster. The public is still skeptical about the affordability of his tax plan. Americans are now divided as to whether it is possible or not to preserve Social Security, increase spending on education and implement the $1.6 trillion tax cut; 44 percent think this is feasible, and 44 percent think it is not. In March, slightly more felt it was possible to do all these things.
And about two-thirds say it is likely that implementing a tax cut will lead to a decrease in the amount of money spent on government programs; 31 percent think this is not likely.
As was the case last month, most Americans do not expect Bush's tax cut to provide them with more spending money. Thirty-six percent say the tax cut will make a significant difference in the amount of money they have after taxes, but 58 percent say it won't. Few expect to see much added money this year; 31 percent think that will happen next year or sometime after that. Just over half of the public continues to believe that rich people will benefit from Bush's tax cut; still, more than half of those with incomes of more than $50,000 a year don't believe they will have extra money as a result.
Most Americans aren't waiting to see what happens with the tax cuts to file their income tax returns this year; 64 percent have done their taxes already, and 23 percent expect to do them in the next week or so.
Although an increasing number of Americans now would like to see the budget surplus used to reduce taxes, support for this is still far lower than public support for applying the surplus to Social Security and Medicare. Forty-seven percent want the surplus to go to those organizations, while 21 percent want it used for a tax cut and 14 percent want it used to pay down the debt.
The Economic Impact on the Bush Presidency
In part because of concerns about the economy, but also as a result of the crisis in China and his recent environmental policies, George W. Bush's presidency is experiencing a dip in public opinion. Fifty-three percent approve of the overall job George W. Bush is doing as president, but 35 percent disapprove. Just last month, 60 percent approved and 22 percent disapproved.
BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL Now Last Month Approve 53%
60%
Now Last Month Disapprove 35%
22%
Ratings of Bush's handling of the economy are especially grim. Forty-seven percent approve of the job he is doing in this area, but almost as many - 40 percent -- disapprove. One month ago, positive assessments of the job he was doing with the economy outweighed negative assessments by two to one.
And the first evaluation of his handling of the environment is nearly evenly divided; 40 percent approve, and 37 percent disapprove. Negative ratings of Bush's handling of foreign policy have doubled in the past month, from 18 percent to 34 percent.
Regardless of any attempts Bush has made to reach out across party lines, views of the job Bush is doing as president are highly related to partisan affiliation. In all cases, Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the job he is doing, and Democrats disapprove.
THE ENVIRONMENT
The public is clearly at odds with George W. Bush when it comes to environmental issues. Sixty-one percent of Americans believe it is more important to protect the environment and 29 percent think it is more important to produce energy. But the public believes that Bush's view is just the opposite - 65 percent think Bush believes producing energy is more important, and only 9% think he favors protecting the environment.
And 59 percent of the public opposes Bush's recent decision not to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which are thought to be one of the causes of global warming, because of concerns about energy shortages and the rising cost of energy. Only 29 percent favor his decision on this issue.
This poll was conducted among a nationwide sample of 660 adults, interviewed by telephone April 4-5, 2001. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus four percentage points for results based on the entire sample.
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