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Posted on 09/06/2001 8:06:43 AM PDT by diotima

The following is a discussion that was on-going on the IL scoreboard here on FR. RedWing9 and I thought it was so interesting that we should post it on the forum so that lurkers and other people could read it and continue on in the discussion.

BillyBoy
Sep 1st 2001
Corrine "the female George Ryan" Wood will formally kick off her campaign for governor with an announcement next Sunday, September 9th. The announcement will take place in Chicago at Cancer Survivors Plaza at 2:00 p.m. (ironically, "breast cancer survivor" Corrine Wood helped to ensure hundreds of woman in Illinois are MORE likely to get breast cancer, due to the fact she squashed a study that proved abortion is linked to breast cancer)
Chicago Tribune polls have previously shown that if Corrine enters the race, Jim Ryan's support drops by 10%, but O'Malley's drops only 1% For this reason, I say Go Corrine Go.
This information was confirmed since Corrine Wood's staff sent me an email today. I signed up for her "campaign undates" several weeks ago (know thy enemy)

lara
Sep 1st 2001 at 11:55:38 PM
BillyBoy, Why is George pushing for Jim Ryan instead of Corrine?

BillyBoy
Sep 2nd 2001 at 03:43:05 PM
Where did hear that? He never endorced Jim Ryan. In fact, he said Jim Ryan "could make an okay governor", while he said "Corrine would make an EXCELLENT governor". The Sun-Times even reported the other day that George and his RINO buddie Corrine meet in the old state capitol to map out an stragedy for her to enter the primary.
Seems fairly obviously to me who he's pushing for.

Freepersup
Sep 4th 2001 at 06:19:01 PM
What will the IL GOP "party machine" do, now that Corrine has entered the gubernatorial fray ? GO PAT GO !

spintreebob
Sep 5th 2001 at 05:13:32 AM
"party machine" is frustrated at Jim's indecisive, clumsy start. Corrine's tactical skill is impressive. George uses pork to prevent local bosses from pushing Jim. Half of those the local bosses can't pressure into backing Jim could go for Pat, not Corrine. If Jim can't get it together his front runner image will disappear. Then Jim is left with nothing.

JoeMomma
Sep 5th 2001 at 10:05:33 AM
Let's be honest. O'Malley won't win a general election in Illinois unless the Democrat nominee is hopelessly corrupt, and Bugsy Daley ain't running. If conservatives want to win next November, unite behind Jim Ryan. Personally, I'm fine with either Wood or J Ryan as our nominee -- the important thing is to win the general election, and O'Malley won't do it for us.

JoeMomma
Sep 5th 2001 at 10:11:27 AM
Thinking about another race, who will the GOP put up against Sen Durbin? I was hoping that Corrinne Wood would skip the Gov race and go straight to the GOP primary for Senate -- she'd win easily there, and would be a formidable opponent for Durbin. I wonder if the IL GOP is gonna try to get Jim Edgar back into politics

A.J.Armitage
Sep 5th 2001 at 11:17:56 AM
So Joe's telling us he'd be fine with anyone but a conservative.

John Farson
Sep 5th 2001 at 11:35:19 AM
"I'm fine with either Wood or J Ryan as our nominee -- the important thing is to win the general election" --Joe
Wrong. The important thing is to nominate a candidate *worth* electing. Rationalization like yours will ensure the success of many more George Ryan (corrupt,liberal) Republicans.

JoeMomma
Sep 5th 2001 at 12:30:06 PM
"The important thing is to nominate a candidate *worth* electing. Rationalization like yours will ensure the success of many more George Ryan (corrupt,liberal) Republicans. " - John
Rationalization like yours will ensure the success of the Democratic Party of Illinois. The more the GOP goes to the right, the more appealing Dems look to the moderate majority of Illinoisans.
If O'Malley is the nominee, I'll gladly support him. Most Illinoisans are moderate and won't, though.
Are you ready for Gov. Schmidt -- Gov. Blagojevich -- Gov. Burris -- Gov. Devine -- etc.?
A moderate Republican is better than a left-wing Democrat anyday.

A.J.Armitage
Sep 5th 2001 at 12:33:55 PM
Moderation gave us George Ryan

JoeMomma
Sep 5th 2001 at 12:39:01 PM
"Moderation gave us George Ryan." - AJ
Going too conservative gave us Senator Dick Durbin in 1996. Has any conservative learned anything from the Al Salvi fiascos?
We have a good conservative with Jim Ryan -- he's proven he can win a statewide election and attract moderates to his side. Conservatives cannot win an election alone.
Again, remember Al Salvi?

A.J.Armitage
Sep 5th 2001 at 12:46:11 PM
Al Salvi is an idiot. That one conservative was nominated who couldn't win doesn't prove that all other conservatives are the same.

JoeMomma
Sep 5th 2001 at 01:18:08 PM
Let me ask you all, and answer honestly -- can O'Malley win a general election? If so, how and where will his support come from in a largely moderate state?
If O'Malley will only lead to a Democratic victory, will his nomination be worth it?

A.J.Armitage
Sep 5th 2001 at 03:18:36 PM
Yes, O'Malley can win. He'll get support from the same place Fitzgerald got it. Illinois is NOT a moderate state. Illinois outside Chicago is a conservative state, and Chicago is liberal. He'll get support from the suburbs(where he's from) and from downstate(where the Demos are to the right of some of your "moderate" republicans, as in the last gubernatorial election).

Temple Drake
Sep 5th 2001 at 03:53:12 PM
I live in the Chicago burbs now, but I come from downstate, where we wouldn't vote Democratic if Jesus Christ were running on the Dem ticket. And I know a surprising number of people up here who agree. Yes, O'Malley can win.

chicagolady
Sep 5th 2001 at 09:41:51 PM
Well Temple Drake, glad to see you are up here, from down state. How about joining us in the Clinton Freep on September 25th!

freepersup
Sep 5th 2001 at 09:56:25 PM
In the 98 election (primary) the IL GOP party machine candidates were defeated by the more conservative right wing of the party: Lauzen (vs Siegel), Salvi (vs Churchill), Fitzgerald (vs Didrickson). However, in the general election the IL GOP party machine offered token support to the winning GOP primary candidates. The more conservative right wing camp saw this wholesale abandonment and put most of their efforts behind Fitzgerald. IMHO.
Additionally, Lauzen and Salvi bear a certain amount of responsibility for their respective defeats.
I believe O'Malley can win the race just as Fitzgerald did. It will be close. It will not be easy. It will require a groundswell of support.
Will the IL GOP party machine once again offer up token support upon a victory in the primary by a member of the conservative right wing of the party ? The senate seat was an ideological victory in as much as it was a classic political victory. The governorship, while certainly a platform capable of projecting ideology, will appeal to the moderates and centrists of the IL GOP party machine for the RINO aspects: power ergo jobs (unlike the senate race). So...O'Malley should enjoy most if not all of the party's support come the general election in the fall, should he win the nomination.

freepersup
Sep 5th 2001 at 10:12:10 PM
One other factor that is hard to nail down is what kind of ramifications will George Ryan have on the election. The defeat of GW Bush in Illinois shouldn't be overlooked, nor taken lightly. It could be a harbinger of things to come. Not that I am looking for excuses for P. O'Malley or J. Ryan or C. Wood, should one of them go down in a ball of fire come the fall election.
There is a Ryan / GOP fatigue factor that will have to be addresed / overcome. This factor will be most likely on the minds of the conservative central and southern Illinois Democrats, that are likely crossover voters for O'Malley.

freepersup
Sep 5th 2001 at 10:28:06 PM
Should have included J. Ryan and C.Wood in the last line of my previous post. Although, the less conservative that the GOP candidate is, the less likely it is for central and southern Illinois conservative Democrat voters to support whoever wins the GOP nomination.

BillyBoy
Sep 6th 2001 at 02:42:47 AM
Since everyone and his brother has weighed in on O'Malley electablity, I figured I would so, since RedWing and I are the only ones who actually LIVE in his district.
JoeMomma,
Let me tell you a little bit about O'Malley's background. He's a small town lawyer and he's lived here in the suburbs his whole life. He is VERY active is his community, especailly in voluteer work. He has represented us here in the greater southwest suburbs of Chicago since 1992. He was elected to a 3rd term in 2000 with 57%, over a heavily funded, ambulance chasing lawyer that directly campaigned with the personal backing of Lisa Madigan and the Chicago machine.
O'Malley is the ONLY-- let me repeat that-- ONLY state Senator in Illinois who's district has LIBERAL Democrats representing all the HOUSE seats. My state representative is Jim Brosnahan, a "moderate" Democrat from Evergreen Park. The other state rep. is Maggie Crotty, and old style "soccer mom" style liberal from Oak Forest. The mayor of my town in a Democrat who quit the GOP in the 70s. He ENDORCED O'Malley recently. The mayor of Chicago Ridge is a Democrat. HE endorced O'Malley. The mayor of Palos Heights is a Democrat who backed O'Malley. The town of Oak Lawn also has a Democrat mayor, who has served for almost 30 years. Make no mistake, O'Malley is NOT in a "safe" conservative stronghold. He's in a district full of moderate Democrats. He IS conservative, and-- suprise! He gets support from people outside his base.
O'Malley's district is surrouned by Chicago on two sides, and liberals on three sides (the south suburbs below us are mostly black and DNC heaven). You know how "ultra-wing O'Malley" did in Blue Island, which is 1/3rd white, 1/3rd hispanic, and 1/3rd black? He racked up nearly 55% of the vote. When campaigned last year, I talked to a mexican Democrat in that town who said the ONLY Republican he would support is O'Malley. And you know why? Because he believes O'Malley CARES about his constituents. BTW, guess who O'Malley's campaign manager is? That's right, the mayor of Blue Island.
In 1990, this district was drawn a SLIGHTLY Republican leaning district. With black flight from Chicago, it has become more and more liberal. It's now very "diverse" and blue-collar. In fact, statically, it's a minature version of the state-- white areas, minority areas, rural parts, suburban parts, even a FEW parts of the 14th ward of CHICAGO are in this district. Arabs, Mexicans, blacks, irish, polish, italian, german. We have them all.
And O'Malley has proven he can win all of it.
O'Malley has the same kind of appeal Ronald Reagan and Bret Schundler has. He's a conservative who appeals to people OTHER than conservatives. Meanwhile, we have more than a few "moderates" in this state who can't even appeal to their own base anymore, most notably outgoing scumbag George Ryan, and House MINORITY leader Lee Daniels (you ever notice that MINORITY leader Daniels is always complaining tha conservatives don't have enough support statewide-- in light of the fact his MODERATE agenda has left totally helpless to overtake the Democrats in house, whereas that "intolerant, mean-spirted CONSERVATIVE Senator Pate Philips and his "ultra right wing" Senators have NO PROBLEM keeping their majority STATEWIDE?
Illinois is NOT a liberal state. If it were, I'd move. Illinois is a centrist state, with liberal Chicago and conservative everyone-else canceling out each other's base. O'Malley's probably to the right of your average Illinoian, but on the same hand, the candidate the GOP picked last time was to the LEFT of most Illinoians. You see, true "moderates"-- the bulk of this state-- do not WANT a liberal Republican governor. They don't WANT someone who openly favors abolishing the death penelty or taxing them to death. That's why "moderate" Ryan's approval rating sank to death. You can't campaing as a conservative and govern as a liberal.
I will vote for Jim Ryan IF he wins the party's nomination.
I will NOT vote for Corrine Wood or any other Ryan clone. I know the different between MODERATES and LIBERALS. Moderates go with Republicans half the time. Liberals go with Republicans 0% of time.
You mention the possiblity of a Blagojervic, Vallas, or Burris governship.
I'm asking you, for the third time, how Corrine's Wood stance on the issues would in ANY way lead me to believe she'd govern differently than any of these Democrats.
If you can name ONE issue where she can, let me know and we'll talk.
I'm not holding my breath.

BillyBoy
Sep 6th 2001 at 02:53:40 AM

Incidently, here's proof that conservatives have traditionally as good or better as "moderates" in the Illinois GOP

1992 U.S. SENATE RACE-- ILLINOIS
Carol Mosely Braun (D) [LIBERAL-- SHE HAD BEAD "MODERATE" DEMOCRAT DIXON IN THE PRIMARY], 55%
Richard Williams (R) [MODERATE], 45% of the vote

1998 U.S. SENATE RACE-ILLINOIS
Peter G. Fitzgerald (R)[CONSERVATIVE-- HAD ALSO BEAT 'MODERATE' IN PRIMARY], 51%
Carol Mosely-Braun (D) [LIBERAL], 47%

1952 GOVERNOR'S RACE-- ILLINOIS
William G. Stratton (R) [CONSERVATIVE], 57%
John Davis (D) [LIBERAL], 42% of vote

1998 GOVERNOR'S RACE
George H. Ryan (R) [LIBERAL, CAMPAIGNED AS 'MODERATE'], 51%
Glenn W. Poshard [MODERATE, CAMPAIGNED AS CONSERVATIVE], 47%

There would be a more recent example in the Governor's race, but since the GOP "machine" in this state NEVER gives conservatives a shot at the general election, you'll just have to look at past election result as proof.

KevinDavis
Sep 6th 2001 at 05:01:56 AM
I think the GOP will win the governors race. If Pat win it is going to be a blowout for him. The reason why Poshard lost is due to the fact a lot people(like me would not vote for a democrat). I think Pat would win with no problem.

freepersup
Sep 6th 2001 at 05:15:54 AM
Thanks for the overview of your district (and Pat O'Malley's) Billy Boy.

CMB was elected in the year of the woman, and then she
 was ousted from office after one term. How many woman lose 
after one term? The reason the state looks liberal is do to 
the fact that Chicago turns out the Democratic vote. 

And who is a state senator from the suburbs?

But again,,,I cite her bid for reelection in '98 as proof 
that Illinois IS liberal. How else can you POSSIBLY explain 
how she could ALMOST WIN,,,(she ONLY lost by 4%!!!),,,at 
the time of Slick's impeachment AND after six years of 
making a complete FOOL out of herself with her comments and 
actions!! 

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