Posted on 09/08/2001 11:45:24 AM PDT by Radioheart
While aides of Rep. Gary Condit say he has not decided to retire, others are evaluating the costs and benefits of such a move.
Amid conflicting reports Friday about Condit's future, the balance sheet comparing retirement vs. resignation vs. running again is filling out.
Several news organizations, including Fox and MSNBC, cited anonymous sources Friday saying that Condit had decided not to seek re-election. These reports claimed a formal announcement could be made in about a week.
Condit's office, though, released a statement dismissing the reports. "Media reports stating that Congressman Condit has reached a decision regarding his 2002 campaign are inaccurate," the statement read. "No such decision has been made."
The statement was not attributed to Condit or any of his staff. Condit's administrative assistant, Mike Dayton, reiterated to The Bee that no career decision has been made.
Condit's term runs through January 2003. If he runs again, it would be in the primary election in March.
Behind the scenes, some maneuvering was definitely occurring in anticipation of a retirement announcement.
Some Stanislaus County residents were contacted by telephone pollsters this week, asking for impressions of Condit. The pollsters also sought to compare Democratic Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza and Republican state Sen. Dick Monteith, potential rivals for the seat if Condit retires.
Friday, state Sen. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, said he would run for the seat if Condit steps down. Costa's district includes Kings County and parts of Madera, Fresno, Tulare and Kern counties.
'A very unusual lame duck'
The benefits that would flow from Condit's deciding to retire in January 2003, rather than resigning immediately or seeking re-election, are both personal and political. One certain cost, though, would be the vastly diminished clout that comes with being a controversial short-timer.
"He would be a very unusual lame duck," said Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia. "Lame ducks normally have just one web damaged. With him, it would be all of his limbs (and) his ability to accomplish things would be zero."
This could significantly touch California issues, including farm and water policy. Condit is the senior Californian on the House Agriculture Committee, which is now writing a new farm bill, and he once served as Gov. Davis' liaison for key Central Valley water negotiations.
Already, however, bridges between the Davis and Condit camps seem to be burning. Both Condit's children quit their jobs in the Davis administration recently after the governor said he was "disheartened" by Condit's actions in the investigation into the disappearance of 24-year-old Chandra Levy of Modesto.
Still, the relationships that Condit has developed over 12 years in Congress could pay off in some targeted legislative legacies. A public demonstration of these relationships occurred Wednesday night when several colleagues hugged Condit on the House floor.
The other benefits of serving out his term would range from the financial to the partisan.
Staying in office through January 2003 would boost his pension to $19,400 a year, from $16,800 if he resigned now, according to calculations by Pete Sepp of the National Taxpayers Union.
"I would not characterize it as a huge difference," Sepp said.
The pension would go up because Condit's salary, now $145,100 a year, is scheduled to increase to $150,178 in January. Pensions are based on final salaries.
His pension may not be his primary consideration, but it cannot be ignored. According to his financial disclosure statements, Condit and his wife, Carolyn, have no savings, retirement accounts, stocks, mutual funds or other assets beyond their two homes, one in Ceres and one in Washington. For the Democratic Party, Condit serves a purpose by sticking it out until 2003. Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush won Condit's 18th District by 9 percentage points in 2000, so a resignation that leads to a special election would give the GOP an advantage.
But Democrats are redrawing the district to make it safer next year. The latest plan creates a district that Democrat Al Gore would have won by 9 percentage points, which is considered a safe margin for the party if Condit steps down.
Democrats avoiding pressure
For Condit personally, sticking around would provide time to at least partially reconstruct his reputation.
A Modesto Bee poll taken immediately following his Aug. 23 interview by ABC's Connie Chung found that more than half of those asked would not vote for him again.
Cognizant of Condit's pride and love of independence, many Democrats want to avoid any impression that they are pressuring him one way or another.
"He got elected by over a half-million people, just like I did," House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Mo., said Friday. "His political future is between him and them. It's not my business."
Bullhockey. The future of a sitting congressman most certainly is the business of the party leader. I have to believe little Dickie's already told Condit he's on his own, no matter what.
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