Posted on 09/21/2001 7:29:52 AM PDT by Jeff Head
From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an "open letter to Americans."
Dear friends and fellow Americans
14 September,2001Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's attack on our sovereignty.
But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it.
This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.
Let me briefly explain.In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary.
Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment.
Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more important in battle than physical strength.
Our enemies are willing - better said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause.
How committed are we in America?
And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise.
When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come.
This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear them.
In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead.
To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens.
Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out.
For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics.
This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons.
Our vast technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs.
We must also be patient with our military leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to fight.
This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle.
American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the concept.
We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities.
These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn.
He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change.
The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the
- Will of the people,
- The political leadership of the government, and
- The chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle </ol ... in that order.
Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon.
The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail.
GOD BLESS AMERICA!
Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do something!"
You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is certain.
If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
This could shape up to be a long, hard, nasty war.
I do believe however, as we find nations who support the criminals who did this, who harbor them ... we will have conventional targets. As we target such governments, I believe we need to go into their countries and help liberate the people in their regimes and enlist their aid.
Afghanistan may give us a perfect example of this. In that case we may see them fall very quickly and with the help of the people and opposition there, replace their Taliban government with something more in line with true Islamic teachings.
It will depend on how we handle it. The Russians provoked the ire of the vast majority of the people there by going is as conquerors and installing a "puppet" government. The people knew this and fought it tooth and nail, who then fell into bickering after their success (which success was funded by ourselves and many of our weapons).
We must not make that mistake. Many in Afghanistan already view the Taliban as their oppressors. We must make it plain that they will be helped by us to overcome their oppressors and to establish THEIR government afterwards ... as long as it does not harbor terrorists.
In addition, the Taliban is using largely Russian and Chinese weaponry and will pit it against our technology. We have already seen where that leads.
The basic point is this. We MUST keep the Taliban from turning this into a general ISlamic Holy War against the west. That is exactly what bin Laden and his ilk want. If we can frame this in many Arabs and Islamics minds as what the President said last night, a fight against those who pervert Islam, we will avoid that ... even if the rooting out of the individual terrorist organizations will still be long and hard, and against committed enemies.
Thats just not going to happen i'm afraid. From what I've heard and seen it looks like military force will only be used against Osma's network in Afghanistan. Other states/nations will be targeted not militarily, not economically and politically, as the State Department and The Pentagon have been at pains to point out.
Iran, for instance, is being treated as an allie of sorts. Tony Blair phoned the Iranian President last night and had a constructive and warm conversation, according to Sky News. Now we hear that the Britsh Foreign Minister is going to Iran to talk with them...it's a far cry from bombing them.
This is the thingI worry about the most....if you don't have a Berky water filter get one...and if you want to look at a new product that could help you build up your immune system check out Immunite
How that turns out will determine whether it happens eslewhere.
Iraq (Sadam's government) is probably the second target and a place where we could do the type of thing I am talking about in Afghanistan if we handle it right, though they (justifiably) are going to be VERY wary after what happened at the end of Desert Storm. Maybe Iran depending on what they do. make no mistake, Iran has harbored terrorists who have killed Americans. The current government may try and distance themselves from that ... but they better get way far away from if very quickly.
They have refused to allow overflights or support ... those are not the actions of an ally.
I just wonder that the government thinks they can get Bin Laden. I am cynical enough to think they'd try to snatch someone just to offer up to the US people even if that person were not the main perpetrator.
Just a few thoughts.
Walt
Or something like that.
Iran has reformist elements within the government and the people. We should see if we can leverage them and this incident to try and get them to change their behavior. If not, then they could be next.
I mean, let's face it, if they don't change their behavior, then terrorists will still make attacks. That will hurt us, and compel us to respond in some way. So in a way, hopefully, our future course of action will be laid for us by the actions of these other states.
Syria has at least some chance of falling into line. Iraq is a lost cause.
Never underestimate your enemy. Wage war to crush.
thanks for the good post. Interesting, insightful read.
However, I cannot for the life of me understand us doing such things with China, or Russia, or (in Australia's case) Indonesia.
Everyone knows who their true friends are (the US, UK and Australia would never come to blows), but you don't provide essential know-how to someone who you're even the least bit suspicious about.
The only reason this crap goes on is because preening politicians want to have glamorous photo-calls with leaders of dodgy nations, so the national media can call them "Statesmen" and "Peace-makers".
I've had many friends and a few enemies and the idiot who said, "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer" never had any real enemies.
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