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Posted on 10/04/2001 8:36:50 AM PDT by Phlap

lthough American and British officials say they have "no doubt" that Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda terrorist organization were behind the crimes of Sept. 11, so far no actual evidence has been made public. The Bush administration has given secret briefings to leaders of NATO and American allies, but the strongest information the public has of a link between Mr. bin Laden and the terrorists' acts is that Mohammad Atta, one of the hijackers, received $100,000 from a source in Pakistan that apparently cannot be definitely identified.

Soon the United States may strike targets in Afghanistan as it pursues Mr. bin Laden. Secretary of State Colin Powell is surely right that the American public is ready to support a strike. But the Americans are not the only audience that must be persuaded. The United States is considering making war on a sovereign state that does not admit to having made war on us. Before we do, we must make clear to the world, especially the Islamic world, that American use of force is justified — not because the Taliban government of Afghanistan has demanded evidence but in the interest of our own national security.

Some Americans may conclude from watching the thousands who have turned out to shout "Death to America" in protests across the Muslim world that all Islamic fundamentalists already hate us so much that we couldn't provoke them further no matter what we did. This would be a tragic miscalculation. While it is true that there are millions who hold strong anti-American sentiments, so far only a tiny number of them have become suicide terrorists.

It is probably true that no matter how strong our evidence against Mr. bin Laden, some in the Muslim world will not be persuaded. But that is no reason to surrender the field of debate to our fiercest enemies. If American military action appears to confirm the worst accusations of American arrogance, we will help extremists recruit a new generation of willing terrorists, far larger than the last.

In 1998, after the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, the United States struck back at targets linked to Mr. bin Laden, including a pharmaceutical factory in Sudan. The Clinton administration suspected that the plant made chemical weapons, but when challenged it could not produce credible evidence. Anti-American demonstrations erupted across the Arab world. Marchers carried giant photographs of Mr. bin Laden, who became a popular hero. It is not impossible that this event helped to radicalize some of the Sept. 11 hijackers.

Another danger is that friendly regimes in the Middle East could be destabilized if their leaders cannot provide convincing evidence to their people of why they should support American attacks on fellow Muslims. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia could all be at risk, but the greatest danger is in Pakistan — a country with nuclear weapons — where the government already faces widespread unrest and there are many Taliban sympathizers. Pressure on President Pervez Musharraf will certainly grow if the United States actually uses force.

During the Cuban missile crisis, the United States publicly released photographs that made a convincing case that the Soviets were lying about the missiles in Cuba. This tangible evidence helped retain support from allies and isolated the Russians diplomatically. Our situation today calls for similar action. President Bush should not let a blanket concern about protecting intelligence sources dissuade him from releasing enough intelligence to make our case.

Delaying our retaliation while we marshal evidence will not increase the risk of additional terrorist attacks in the short term. Any terrorist cells already operating in the United States or Europe are not likely to depend on further contact with Mr. bin Laden in order to conduct their missions.

The world has little reason to doubt America's power or resolve, but our security also depends on how others perceive the justice of our actions. Mr. bin Laden will have the last laugh if he provokes us into radicalizing more terrorists. If the evidence is not ready, then neither is the bombing.
Robert A. Pape and Chaim Kaufman teach international relations at, respectively, the University of Chicago and Lehigh University.

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