Special Report-China's elite

China will be the most powerful country in the world within five years. But some of its citizens would like to pack their bags and move overseas anyway.

And there may be a saying in China about women holding up half the sky, but women certainly don’t get half the salary for doing so. Yet some of them get paid enough to have developed a taste for designer-label clothes and accessories.

The people of the world’s most populous country have expressed some extraordinary opinions about their lives and attitudes in this, the latest of a yearly series of surveys of China’s elite, presented by the Review.

In a three-part weekly series starting with this issue, we will look at some often surprising findings from a detailed survey of residents of three of China’s principal cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

We’ll examine some serious issues, such as their reactions to their country’s impending membership of the World Trade Organization. But we’ll also look at some lighter subjects—such as finding out what their favourite movies are.

THE TRADITIONAL IMAGE of China as a land of drab-suited peasants working in rice paddies is fading. Although agriculture is still a key industry, even the slowest international observer is aware that the mainland has been developing into a modern society at high speed. The nerve centres of the new China are active, bustling, capitalist places-but the movers and shakers who run them are still rarely brought into focus.

Working with world-class market researchers, the REVIEW undertook a detailed examination of China's new decision-makers. These are not communist cadres, but business people, many of whom work for private companies, own their homes and spend hours a day on street corners yakking into mobile phones, just like dwellers in other modern cities.

These individuals tended to be in their 30s. Three-fifths of them had university education, and most were married with one child. Almost all of them carried mainland citizenship.

Their monthly income, at about 5,000 renminbi ($605), was high by Chinese standards. But there were two interesting anomalies. Younger business people-those under 45-earned significantly more than older ones, as the income chart on this page shows. Another anomaly shows that there is still a problem with sexual equality. The average female respondent earned only 4,093 renminbi, compared to the male's 5,589.

Nevertheless, both sexes saw the future as bright. More than half of the people interviewed-54%-believed that China would be the most powerful country in the world within five years. A further 24% were neutral on the issue. Only 23% disagreed.

Despite this, there were some less-than-patriotic sentiments floating around. We asked them whether they would rather live overseas than in China. Although the majority of respondents said no, two groups answered in the affirmative. The under-35s and the citizens of the southern city of Guangzhou, which is near Hong Kong, both wanted to leave the mainland. Thanks to television and other factors, they know that there is a freer world out there.

IT'S A HARD LIFE; but perhaps not that hard. Although business people in China tended to work a respectable nine hours a day, this is not high compared to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, where 10 hours a day is commonplace. Yes, people earn more in most of those countries, but it is all comparative. By mainland standards, our respondents were well paid.

Many individuals gave us answers on the lines of "I spend more than three hours relaxing," so the numbers on the charts are estimates, rather than precise numbers of minutes. Yet they still clearly show that the residents of Guangzhou deserve the "work hard, play hard" award. At eight hours and 56 minutes, they work slightly longer days than Beijing residents, yet manage to pack an impressive four hours of socializing and relaxation into every day.

And when the pay packet arrives at the end of the month, where does it go? Much of it goes into the bank. The most common response to this question, from 62%, was "to the savings account." School fees also got a vote from a large number-58%-of respondents. But some of it is spent on fun stuff, with 48% saying that they spent some of it on socializing and entertainment.

Seventy percent reported the worrying news that the costs of home purchase had climbed over the past year, with only one in 10 reporting that downward pressures-presumably more competition-had cut costs of housing. Two-fifths of respondents expected to pay more for school fees in the 12 months ahead, and also expected the cost of homes to rise.

The cost of overseas travel was also expected to rise, but Chinese citizens will probably not fuss too much about this. Just 10 years ago, it wasn't an option at all for most of them.

SO ARE CHINA'S major cities filling up with yuppies? Not quite. The survey revealed that while many of the standard traits of business people around the world had spread to the world's most populous country, there were other habits they eschewed.

Take designer-label clothes, for example. Seventy percent of male respondents claimed to have no interest in wearing designer clothes. Women were divided on the issue, with 45% saying that they did take care to wear such items. Carrying a mobile phone was considered very important, but using the world business language of English was given a much lower level of importance.

Younger people were happy to hang out in fast-food joints, while older ones had no taste for it. The hankering for the first-class cabin that is common among business travellers in other countries does not seem to have hit China yet. Respondents were happy enough to travel business or economy class.

Many people reported that they had got into the habit of reading newspapers every day. This makes sense, since China has relatively recently moved from having unreadable government-issued newspapers, to having racks of popular, livelier publications. To anyone brought up on the dull stodge of People's Daily or China Daily, modern Chinese newspapers are a delight.

The other fascinating finding of this part of the survey was that a generation gap is growing-and it's not just about fast food, although there is a clear division there. People under 55 are enthusiastic users of computers. But the over-55s just aren't logged on to this new addiction.

THERE IS WIDESPREAD bullishness on prospects in China following its accession to the big boys' business club, the World Trade Organization. Virtually every sector of industry checked in this survey showed that people felt they would benefit. People in import-export, property, insurance, business services and manufacturing were most upbeat, with 70% to 80% believing that WTO membership would increase prosperity in their sector.

But the results were more varied when we pinned them down to predict exactly what the effects would be. In general, the change of rules would make China more accessible, and thus cause foreign investment to flow inwards, many of them believed.

And even larger numbers of people reckoned that the change of trade rules would have an effect on domestic industry-which would suddenly lead to consumers having a far greater choice of products and services, and at much more competitive prices. Such changes, of course, would be bad news for inefficient companies producing substandard products, but a boon to others. Even when we asked whether job stability would be affected, most interviewees said that the effect would be positive.

Yes, there will certainly be losers in the shake-out that follows WTO accession, but clearly, the people interviewed saw themselves as being among the winners.

When the figures in this section were broken down by the industry sectors of the respondents, a different trend came to light. The utilities sector, comprising workers producing electricity, gas and water, expressed much less confidence in a positive outcome than most other sectors. In the chart directly below, we contrast it with the hospitality sector, in which hotels and restaurant executives professed themselves entirely upbeat about the coming changes in the tariff system.

PEOPLE WHO VISITED CHINA in the 1980s and had their credit cards stolen had little to worry about. Not only were thieves unable to use them in Chinese cities, but most people-including police officers-had no understanding of what they were. A type of small, stiff banknote?

It's different today. Many of the business people we interviewed had credit cards in their pockets-and several had more than one. The ubiquitous Visa and Mastercard were frequently found. But locally-branded cards, such as the Peony card, were also much in evidence.

But there are still some unique factors about credit cards in China. In other Asian countries, for example, older people tend to have more credit cards than younger ones. But in China, the majority of businesspeople under 35-55%-had credit cards, while only a minority of people over that age-41% to 47%-carried the things.

Other financial instruments associated with mature economies were also much in evidence in the lives of mainland businesspeople. Fully half the interviewees were holding share certificates. But they aren't the New York blue chips that international investors favour. Only 5% had foreign stocks, while 51% held stocks of mainland Chinese firms.

Which of their financial instruments did they think would give them the best return over the next 12 months? The biggest vote went to shares in domestic Chinese companies, getting 30% of the votes. Property came second with 23%, and bonds a poor third with 6%. The overall answer to this question appeared to be that most people couldn't see guaranteed good returns from any direction.

Do Chinese consumers like thriller movies or romances best? Will the economy keep growing at the same speed? What's the hottest brand of watch in China? The answers to these and many other questions will appear in parts two and three of China's Elite, in the next two issues of the REVIEW.

One in four members of the wealthy in China would be upset if his or her child married a foreigner. The number rises to one in three in Guangzhou. But it’s less of an issue in Shanghai—there, 48% would be able to deal with an overseas partner for their offspring.

Yet despite occasional touches of xenophobia, business people in the major cities of the mainland agree that it is vital for them to have an international perspective. And many of them want to learn English.

In this special feature, which forms part two of a three-part weekly series on the new elite of China, we’ll examine the way businesspeople are slowly starting to become jet-setters, where they go and where they would like to go. We’ll also look at their attitudes to doing business with foreigners.

Lighter issues are also raised: What movies do the urban middle class in China like to watch? Have they discovered designer labels yet?

The answers suggest that shopping as a hobby has come to the heartland of the Chinese Communist Party.

THE CRISIS of confidence that has hit the world's air passengers following the terrorist attacks in the United States is unlikely to make much of an impact in China. The country's economy is growing without much jet-setting going on. Despite our survey focusing on big-city residents who earn higher than average incomes, only a minority of interviewees were regular users of international airlines.

Having said that, there were more air passengers than one might have expected, given China's status as a hermit kingdom until just over two decades ago. Around one in 10 people interviewed had made one overseas air trip and a slightly smaller proportion had made two or three trips.

Where did they go? Hong Kong, with 46%, was the No. 1 "international" destination, though politically speaking it is now part of China. Thailand was the chosen destination of 30% of those who did travel internationally and Singapore came in third with 23%. The figures suggest that many of those on the move have visits to relatives, or holidays in mind.

Where would they like to go? That's a different issue, and produced different answers. The United States was the destination of choice for the largest number of well-heeled Chinese, despite the negative rhetoric that so often exists between that country and China. Continental Europe and Australasia came a close second and third. Clearly, a fascination with Western "first world" nations has come from somewhere--imported movies, perhaps?

The lack of choice that has long bedevilled Chinese consumers is much in evidence in their choice of airline. Air China is the carrier for almost all respondents. A small percentage have used Cathay Pacific and Dragonair, both of which are Hong Kong-based. The big world-spanning airlines, such as United Airlines and British Airways, are simply not on the map in China.

Air travellers in China don't waste money. Half of them opt for business or first class on business (that is, when someone else is paying). But when they are on vacation, it's the back of the bus for the majority--78%--of them.

WHO'S HOT and who's not? To get a better look at the cultural profile of China's rising middle class, we asked lots of questions about entertainment. The answers confirmed what many fans of world music have long known: freer regimes produce more hip material than controlled ones.

Out of 10 affluent Chinese people looking for entertainment, we find half watching Hollywood movies and a further quarter watching Hong Kong movies, which have similar values (or lack of, perhaps we should say). Only 17% loyally prefer films made in mainland China. Productions from elsewhere in Asia don't get a look in.

The craze for Hollywood blockbusters is not uniform, though. While 92% of under-35s are happy to watch such material, older people are much less interested in it. This may be because they have simply not seen much--in the days when the mature among our interviewees were regular movie-goers, imported films from the West were hard to find.

The Western dominance in film is not shared in music tastes. Chinese pop is the most popular type of music. While mainland-produced films appear to be from a different planet from Hollywood ones, the difference between Chinese and Western pop music is much less. Singers from Taiwan or mainland China deliver Mandarin lyrics to backing tracks identical to mainstream Western music. But Western icons like the teenage Britney Spears are not entirely off the menu. Thirty per cent of interviewees admitted to listening to Western pop. The number dropped steeply for older people, and only 7% of people aged 55 or over owned up to listening to it.

LIFE IS HARD, many residents of Guangzhou, the booming city in the south of the country, told us. Some 41% of interviewees there characterized daily life as "a struggle." This was far higher than the equivalent numbers in Beijing and Shanghai, where only 16%-19% felt that they were fighting to get through their days. But a look at the living conditions and earnings of Guangzhou residents suggests that they are not disadvantaged compared to their northern neighbours. A possible reason for the disenchantment might be that their expectations are high, since Guangzhou is close to the wealthy and free urban district of Hong Kong.

But as a whole, our interviewees were tolerably happy. Life was okay, they reckoned, though without much enthusiasm. The issue of high expectations leads us to look at their view of the free world outside, such as appears on their television screens. Only 2% of respondents were limited to terrestial mainland Chinese television. A stunning 84% had cable television, and a further 13% had cable and satellite channels.

The list of perks that executives get with their jobs is similar to those in more developed countries, though the percentages tend to be lower. For example, only 17% get a company car, and only 15% get a driver to go with it. But considering how recent the urbanization of China is, these are still impressive figures.

Such perks are valuable, but are not considered as important as cultural values. Interviewees were asked to specify what traditional values they considered most important. Most people replied that the most important thing for a person was to be a hard worker.

But the most important thing to find in a business partner was honesty, which makes sense.

TWO AND HALF millennia ago, Confucius would relax by reading a good book--or perhaps writing one. Regular visitors to China will not be surprised to note the popularity of newspapers and magazines among the reading public.

One in three of the people interviewed listed reading newspapers and magazines as a key spare-time activity--more than the 29% which said they sat in front of televisions, which have become ubiquitous in urban households. Reading books was the chosen activity of one in four respondents.

We found that younger people were much more likely to surf the Internet or go to the cinema than older ones. But for all age groups, people were more likely to spend time reading than surfing the Web.

The other popular down-time hobby of modern people--shopping, or window-shopping for stuff you can't afford--has also caught on in China. What is perhaps more extraordinary is the speed at which designer labels have become familiar to middle-class consumers in a country which was so recently closed to virtually all imports.

Most impressive in this regard has been the marketing done by Alfred Dunhill, which is far and away the best-known label, with 37% of interviewees owning a garment or accessories bearing that name. Cartier and Gianni Versace were also popular. But we wouldn't want to give the impression that mainland China's cities are like Japan's in the 1980s--full of people strutting around in Burberry coats. Some 37% of interviewees had no designer-label goods at all.

OK, SO FOREIGNERS are no longer called imperialist barbarians. But are they still thought of as dangerous or other-worldly? Maybe they are. Among Guangzhou businesspeople, 67% said they would rather do business with Chinese companies than foreign ones. This compares with 49% of Beijingers and Shanghainese who had the same attitude.

What's wrong with foreigners? A clash of business cultures appears to be the problem. The grumbling Guangzhou residents explained that foreigners doing business in the mainland "don't understand the way business is done here." This view of outsiders got a slightly smaller nod from Shanghai, with 44% agreeing. In Beijing, only 37% of interviewees reckoned businesspeople from overseas didn't understand how deals were made in China. There were 26% who thought foreigners did know how to do business, and a further 35% decided they were neutral on the issue.

On the question of hiring foreigners, again the residents of Guangzhou were the least welcoming. Eighty-four per cent said companies should hire local citizens before foreigners. In Beijing, 9% of interviewees took the more nonpartisan view that that locals should not get preference, and a further 15% were neutral on the issue.

But a lack of welcome for foreigners doesn't mean that their language isn't welcome. English was clearly seen as the world's business language. Some 60% of respondents, uniform across age groups and cities, agreed that fluency in English was a key to success. And parochialism was out, too. There was a remarkable degree of agreement on the concept that it was important to have an international perspective on life, with a 92% positive response to the statement.

The on-line technological revolution will change the way business is done within five years, wealthy Chinese believe. It will force firms to be more competitive, and will boost profits and productivity.

But while some well-heeled people in China are acquiring the e-mail habit, and many are increasingly looking to the Internet as a news source, there are a great many individuals who are not yet Net-literate.

Meanwhile, China’s elite are generally optimistic about the future and are looking forward to the changes which will be wrought by their country’s entry into the World Trade Organization—but the citizens of one major city are noticeably downbeat about profits this year. Others, fortunately, are hoping for increased earnings—and are already making shopping lists of what to buy after the trade tariffs start to fall.

In this, the final part in our weekly series of profiles of the wealthiest 1% of citizens of China, we focus on technological issues and economic health. Plus we examine some lighter subjects—such as what type of imported booze helps the hard-working mainlander relax.

IT TAKES A BIT OF SKILL to use any library. But it takes a great deal of skill, practice and luck to have much success using the world's biggest library. That's because the earth's largest repository of information--the World Wide Web--is also the planet's least-organized hall of learning. Where can one pick up hot surfing skills?

In China, the Internet is strongly associated with foreign companies. Fifty-six percent of high-earning nationals who work for multinational firms or joint ventures reckon they have become confident travellers on the information superhighway. This compares with an average of 41% among affluent mainlanders as a whole. In Shanghai, only 34% of our interviewees professed themselves to be comfortable on the Internet, while 37% were not. Net-literate Chinese are much more often found in big companies than small ones, and among Guangzhou residents as opposed to Beijing or Shanghai folk.

As for those who do use the Internet, what are they doing on it? Swapping e-mail letters, just like people elsewhere--though one hopes that the language barrier insulates them from receiving much of the junk mail and tired lists of jokes that haunt English-language users of the Net. For those who log on at work, 82% use it for e-mail (compared to 69% in our survey two years earlier). Searching for information about companies was the second-most common usage at 75%, a number that has fallen slightly from last year's 79%. The number of people who log on for news and current affairs is moving upwards, from 47% in 1999 to 54% this year. Among people who log on from home, the number of individuals looking for news information is even higher, at 62%. Clearly, news from the Net has high value in a place where uncensored printed news is rare.

THE GEEKS will return! Still on a technological theme, one might think "dotcom" is a bad word these days. But no. The present negativity about the Internet is just temporary, most affluent Chinese think. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of people interviewed said that the clouds suffocating the Internet business will definitely disappear. Only a tiny fraction of people, averaging 4%, saw the Web as a long-term bust.

So if the Internet is coming back, what will it do next? The answer was clear: It will give a significant competitive advantage to those who know how to use it. While this argument was heard most strongly from rich interviewees who work for multinationals and joint ventures, with 81% support, there was also strong agreement from others, including 78% of people who worked in Chinese state firms. Yet the biggest group of believers in the cost-cutting power of Internet communications were the individuals who work in companies controlling budgets of 500,000 renminbi ($60,460) or more, with 84% support. And they have the budgets to make their beliefs turn into hard facts.

When will these changes take hold? On-line activities "will lead to major changes in business practices in my industry within five years," two out of three interviewees believe.

So let's get down to specifics. Where do the Internet and other advances in information technology help your business in terms of profitability or productivity? Technological developments in communications was the key contribution from IT for half the respondents. They saw improvements in e-mail, fax and telephone communications as having tangible benefits. A similar proportion saw e-commerce as a major plus. The improved PCs that most people have on their desks was also seen as a bonus of the IT revolution, as were the database systems that most firms now use to control inventory and other business processes. The overall message was crystal clear: Nerds, we need you.

AS CHINA OPENS ever wider to goods from overseas, the rich are acquiring a taste for imported high-class products and services. Here we highlight a few winners in various sectors.

Cars: German car makers appear to have quietly recruited a host of fans. That's the implication from the number of people who listed Volkswagen as their car of choice. An impressive 15% had a car from the firm which makes the New Beetle, the Passat, the Jetta and other models, and 11% said they would like to buy a Volkswagen. A remarkable 23% wanted to buy a BMW, 17% wanted an Audi, and 16% wanted a Mercedes-Benz--three other German marques. Making a strong showing in second place were the car makers of Japan, with Honda and Toyota turning in good performances. One surprise interloper making a good showing was the Buick and General Motors group of cars from the United States.

Drinks: Cognac is the drink of choice for consumers of serious spirits in China. The top three alcoholic tipples consumed by interviewees were all fine French cognacs: Remy Martin, Martell and Hennessy, in that order. Almost half the respondents who were familiar with alcohol labels had downed a glass of Remy Martin in the preceding four weeks, and one in three had had a slug of Martell.

Watches: In the world of timepieces, the Japanese take the gold, with the highest number of interviewees--11%--wearing Seiko watches. A further 5% aspired to own one. But the Swiss-made Rolex also made an impressive showing. Although only 7% of wealthy Chinese had one, a stunning 38% had aspirations to get one.

Hotels: Although groups from the United States traditionally dominate the high-class hotel sector, Asia's Shangri-La hotel chain comes out No. 1 among rich Chinese consumers, with one in four respondents having stayed with the group.

AFTER CHINA JOINS the World Trade Organization, consumers on the mainland will start to find more choices in their shops, including many new items from overseas. But will they buy them? It isn't something that can be taken for granted. The average wealthy Chinese does have a streak of loyalty for homemade products, the survey suggests. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they would prefer to buy Chinese brands rather than foreign brands when they have the choice.

But this doesn't mean that imported items will all be left on the shelf. Conversely, Chinese consumers have a liking for trying new products. While two-thirds of them claim to prefer sticking with brands they already know, three-quarters of respondents admit to being drawn to try different items.

The overall feeling among China's elite is that their country's accession to membership of the world's main business club will boost prosperity in general. And the bullishness appears to be increasing. In a survey a year ago, one in five respondents felt that joining the WTO would makes jobs less secure. But this year, that number falls to 17%, and is greatly outweighed by the 49% who see the move as one which makes jobs more secure.

Which products are well-heeled Chinese citizens most likely to buy from overseas sources? The surveys indicates that telecommunications items, consumer electronics, insurance and cars are going to be on the shopping lists of mainlanders looking for improved choice and value.

THE SMILES all seem to have migrated to the north of China this year. Citizens of the bustling southern metropolis of Guangzhou are much gloomier than their counterparts in Beijing. Although this survey was taken before the terrorist attacks on New York, there was already a clear nervousness about the future from residents of the southern city. While an overall majority, 64%, of rich Guangzhou citizens saw China's economy improving over the next 12 months, one in four saw no improvement, and a further 9% saw growth going into retreat. In contrast, Beijing interviewees were much more bullish, with a remarkable 94% convinced that China's economy would grow steadily in the year ahead.

This is not to say that Beijingers were dancing in the streets. Although generally optimistic, a significant proportion of respondents--about one in four across the board--were neutral about the future, and a further 6% were pessimistic.

That's their mental state. What about their balance sheets? Now this is where we find the root of the problem in Guangzhou. Most people in that city saw no increase in pre-tax profits for their firms in the financial year 2000. Fifty-four percent of people saw profits unchanged or falling. This contrasts with the experience to the north, where 61% of Shanghai wealthy residents and 65% of their equivalents in Beijing did see earnings growth in 2000. Estimates of the equivalent figures for the financial year 2001 suggest that things are going to be much the same or worse. The number of Guangzhou people reporting increased profits is even smaller, at 36%, compared to 38% for a year earlier.

So it looks like the good news will come from businesses in Beijing or Shanghai. And the big boys will do better than the small players. When we broke down the optimism scale by the size of the interviewees' companies, we found that those who worked for firms of 300 staff or more were bullish, with four out of five describing themselves as optimistic about the future growth of business.

I see what you are saying but you are looking only at a micro-view.

First off, the people who are making it like some of these guys, are balanced by a great number of PLA radicals. They don't want WTO, they don't want political reform. They want the good old days of Mao...

Read up on the Boxer Rebellion...

If we look at a bigger scale, China is a one party dictatorship who thinks they own the East China Sea, the South China Sea, Taiwan, etc.

China has the ability to fragment or get scared and break out in an all out Asian war, particularly over Taiwan. Money and politics are not on equal ground...if the party is threatened they will go to war no matter the cost. To them the Party IS China. Anyone seeking to destroy or change the CCP is seeking to destroy China. They complain bitterly about 'peaceful evolution'.

If you are looking at the desire of some of the individuals to 'make some money and send their kids to college' that is great. I have absolutely no problem with that. That, we have in common, and that is exactly what has prevented a war thus far.

However if we look on the bigger scale, those people who want what you say they all want, are not in charge. Their numbers are growing but they are not totally in control, and the more their numbers grow the better the odds are they will set up a national system (political system included) that reflects that desire. A system of that nature will not look upon America as an enemy or a threat. It will also not look upon Taiwan as an enemy or a threat. The national identity will change. THAT however is HUGE thing.

The growth of that group of people is slowly putting pressure on the good old boys, and thus creates a powder keg waiting to blow up.

Right now Afghanistan has all those different ethnic groups and factions all in a battle royale with all kinds of alliances. If you think thats something, imagine how China will turn out...

In China today, there is a relatively small band of radicals who took charge and remain in control. Keep in mind, the people who took control of China in 1949 were communist revolutionaries. Radical wise they are no different than Iranian revolutionaries, except the Mao types were far more vicious.

To make the story short, there are a group of radicals imposing their ways on the people, however those ways are becoming less and less in vogue. A few bad apples can still cause a lot of problems.

Keep in mind, historically in China the masses have not been educated. At the most basic reading is about it in a lot of cases, and all they have to read is the CCP's newspapers...it would be an understatement to say that the largely uneducated masses (or the masses only educated in CCP doctrine) are easily swayed by the radical elements of the party.

The article is too long, so I just comment on your reply.

>>First off, the people who are making it like some of these guys, are balanced by a great number of PLA radicals. They don't want WTO, they don't want political reform. They want the good old days of Mao...

The military is not involved in the decision-making of WTO issues. The PLA's role or influence on the Chinese society has been significantly reduced by Deng Xiaoping nd Jiang Zemin. But it doesn't mean the generals will like to go back to Mao's era. Jiang promised the PLA become a professional, high-tech-equipped, well-paid army. The budget on the military has been greatly increased since the governmnet took over most of the PLA's businesses which used to the cash cow for the army.

>>They complain bitterly about 'peaceful evolution'.

Now they let the capitalists to get into the party to do the job.

>>>A system of that nature will not look upon America as an enemy or a threat. It will also not look upon Taiwan as an enemy or a threat. The national identity will change. THAT however is HUGE thing.

The authors of China Can Say No are US-educated elite intellectuals. The nationalist sentiments are usually fanned by those elite. The ordinary people simply follow them. The authors of Unretricted War are also elite intellectuals in the PLA, well-educated, able to have access to the west.

>>Right now Afghanistan has all those different ethnic groups and factions all in a battle royale with all kinds of alliances. If you think thats something, imagine how China will turn out...

So you mean China may go back to the "warring states"?

>>In China today, there is a relatively small band of radicals who took charge and remain in control.

Those radicals are not in charge now. Fortunately. Can you name some of the radicals in charge of China? Jiang? Zhu?

>>there are a group of radicals imposing their ways on the people, however those ways are becoming less and less in vogue. A few bad apples can still cause a lot of problems.

As I said, those Maoist leftists don't have power. They even don't have the right to publish their thoughts, so they can only express their left-wing opinions on their websites.

The military is not involved in the decision-making of WTO issues.

I think the PLA has a lot of power still, where to draw the line, no one knows. Some PLA might want WTO, but others might not. There is no way to know who is who, but I think the PLA has a lot of power still.

The PLA's role or influence on the Chinese society has been significantly reduced by Deng Xiaoping nd Jiang Zemin.

I, speaking from an American point of view, do not complain about “China”; (aka Chinese people) having a military in a general sense of the word. No matter what, every society has a military. Those militaries can be used for good things or bad things. In China’s case, I think the PLA did many bad things and have been very corrupt and abuse a lot of their power. What I surely do not like in any form is the militancy that controlled everything for so long and still flares up every now and then. Communist militancy is the basis for the establishment of the CCP and PLA.

Militancy is the very nature of communism and the CCP take-over of all of China. That militancy is why the CCP and the KMT were fighting. Have you ever wondered why Jiang Jie Shi wanted to kill the Communists? Radical ruthless communism is the root of the civil war. If someone went around China today sabotaging everything and preaching revolution and radical communist economics, would the CCP fight them? Those are the exact roles that were being played in the 1940s and before.

That radicalism is the basis for the CCP/PLA’s identity. Now many people are in an identity crisis, both in and out of the party and army.

Now though, as I have said before, people cannot stay mad at the world forever. As society is becoming less and less militant, the party is also pulled along those lines. I don’t believe the reforms in China started from the top. The real root of the change was when the people got sick of radicalism. The party has not been the champion of reform, but rather ‘do it or else’. The party is sort of operating in the gray areas that don't have labels on them. A lot of people still do not welcome criticism or change. The party is being pushed to reform. The Party as a whole has discreetly been forced to change by some of the more mainstream thinkers (possibly like Zhu or Jiang) who got in the party and started to change stuff. To think that the KMT took everyone that believed in moderation with them when they fled to Taiwan is not true.

Military and militancy are two different things. Those anti-American, anti-Taiwan militants need to go…

The budget on the military has been greatly increased since the governmnet took over most of the PLA's businesses which used to the cash cow for the army.

I am skeptical about a lot of the ‘reforms’ involving military money. The PLA is just as much ‘in business’ today as they were 20 years ago, although today’s business takes on a different form and flavor. They are not in the open as they were before. They wear a suit and tie to the office instead of military uniforms. The key positions in those ‘private’ companies are PLA officers.

They upgraded from business 101 to business 301, that’s all.

They complain bitterly about 'peaceful evolution'.

Now they let the capitalists to get into the party to do the job.

With this I agree to some extent. They should not be complaining about America so much when the job is being done from the inside. The things I mentioned above about “grass roots” people getting sick of radicalism is gaining in support. An American ‘capitalist’ is easy to make propaganda out of, a Chinese ‘capitalist’ is a whole different story. The only thing they can do is accuse those people of being foreign agents or something. Like I said before, the only reason China and America have not fought already is because China has some capitalists.

The nationalist sentiments are usually fanned by those elite. The ordinary people simply follow them.

This is exactly what I am talking about. I don’t like them demonizing America or creating other forms of radicalism.

So you mean China may go back to the "warring states"?

It is possible. China still today has many people capable and willing to fight amongst themselves.

Can you name some of the radicals in charge of China? Jiang? Zhu?

This is an interesting point. The other day there was a congressional hearing about China on CSPAN. One of the speakers made this same point.

It is hard to tell what everyone thinks in China because people don’t ‘show their hand’ too often. I could not tell you enough (specifically) about either one to judge. In Chinese politics, if someone gets labeled, their political life is dead. Whether they are extreme ‘liberals’ or extreme ‘radicals’ either way they are stuck. People are not about to come out with their true feelings.

I did however read a little about Zhu and so far he seems like a fairly straight shooter when compared to the others. Although, honestly I don’t have a lot of info about him or what he believes in.

A lot of the complaints about China don’t have to do with one person or another. Too often, even in the Qing or before or after, China has relied too much on human control for everything. China has battled corruption for hundreds of years. One leader may be good, but the system he heads may be fundamentally flawed. One leader may be good, and the next may be bad, and in the mean time, the people either suffer or have peace depending on the choices those people at the top make. China is relying heavily on ‘the good nature of men’. I believe in the saying that ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’.

>>Communist militancy is the basis for the establishment of the CCP and PLA.

It will be always like that as long as the CCP stays in power. The doctrine of People's Democratic Dictorship is interpreted as "control and use of military forces".

>>If someone went around China today sabotaging everything and preaching revolution and radical communist economics, >>would the CCP fight them? Those are the exact roles that were being played in the 1940s and before.

Of course.

>>That radicalism is the basis for the CCP/PLA’s identity. Now many people are in an identity crisis, both in and out of the >>party and army.

Do you know Jiang is talking about "three represents"? Looks like he's going to change the CCP's identity from a class-based party to an all-people party. Now he's facing criticism from within the party. If you keep an eye on what has been happening lately, you may find the difference in how Jiang has respond to the US about the WTO tragedy and the attitude of other Chinese government agencies like the foreign ministry. Looks like there are different opinions in the Chinese decision-making circle and Jiang is not fully in control. BTW Jiang is going to retire next year and Hu Jintao will be the successor. An out-going boss is not that powerful in China. Zhu will also retire. He has publicly said he's not seeking a second term. Time for power struggle now.

>>They wear a suit and tie to the office instead of military uniforms. The key positions in those ‘private’ companies are PLA >>officers.

The big difference here is those suit-and tie people don't control military anymore, although they still have connections with the military. In China control of military means you can actually command the soldiers and guns. You can give orders. If you don't physically control part of the army, even uniform won't help. The Gang of Four worn uniform in the Cultural Revolution with Wang Hongwen being the vice-chairman of the central military committee, second to Mao, but they couldn't command a single soldier. Zhou Enlai didn't wear uniform, but the PLA generals took orders from him.

>>The only thing they can do is accuse those people of being foreign agents or something.

That's right. The term of "American Agents" works very well in this case because people are afraid of "foreign powers". Also those people tend to have easy access or connection to the west, so it won't be a difficult job to gather some evidence of "treason".

>>This is exactly what I am talking about. I don’t like them demonizing America or creating other forms of radicalism.

But it works in China. Nationalist sentiments are popular among people. You can take advantage of the sentiments to make money, promote businesses, win a power struggle, or whatever.

>>China still today has many people capable and willing to fight amongst themselves.

Not many. I don't think the majority will want a war.

>> In Chinese politics, if someone gets labeled, their political life is dead.

That's why Li Peng's political life was over after the June 4th inccident.

>>If the people in the party are good then is the party itself good? In China the answer is yes, in America the answer could >>well be no, but it depends.

In China yes because people change the policies and the party.

Do you know Jiang is talking about "three represents"?

I have heard a great deal about the "three represents" but haven't seen much in way of what those three things actually are...

In China yes because people change the policies and the party.

In America, people change the policies too. However, we give people the direct opportunity to make those changes when they vote on a regular basis. Every couple of years if we don't like what we see, out with those guys...

1. People can vote on who they want and what they want. Also those things/changes are widely and openly discussed for the most part.
2.Once in power we have a system of 'checks and balances' in several capacities. Leaders cannot just run off and do their own thing. Bill Clinton was just a few votes away from being removed from office.
3. Our government is not led by one person. We don't really comprehend the term 'rubber stamp organization' either.

There are many things to list. We have all that stuff and much more built into the system.

China's system is extremely arbitrary and justice for wrong doing most of the time only happens after the situation gets really bad. China has a system built for corruption.

The sooner China moves away from arbitrary fiat rule, the better off everyone is going to be.

America has corruption too, but we built into the system ways to deal with that. Over the long term we have been relatively good at getting the information out there and dealing with those issues. Our system is based on knowledge of the fallability of men.

However most people (especially here on FR) will agree that an overall continued erosion of moral judgement (and I think and increase in a struggle for power) is causing problems.

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