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Posted on 10/18/2001 2:02:49 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative

I ran across this and thought people here at FR might be interested. Some of his analysis hasn't been updated post-September-11. He has a 98% accuracy on over 1000 called races since 1996:

• U.S. HOUSE CONTROL That the Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. House in the 2002 elections - slightly favored, 30 to 29 (50.8% chance House will remain Republican; GOP odds upgraded from 50.6% chance 6/25/01)

• U.S. SENATE CONTROL That the Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2002 elections -- slightly favored, 25 to 24 (51% chance of continued Democratic Senate control)

• Alaska Governor: Democrat open seat; Republicans favored over Democrats, 9 to 8 (52.9% chance that a Republican will win)

• Arizona Governor: Republican open seat; Republicans and Democrats favored equally

• Arkansas Governor: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) favored over the field, 3 to 1 (75% chance to be re-elected)

  Arkansas Senate: Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) slightly favored over the field, 9 to 8 (52.9% chance)

• California Governor: Gov. Gray Davis (D) favored over the field, 10 to 9 (52.6% chance to win re-election; odds downgraded from 57.1% chance)

• Florida Governor: Gov. Jeb Bush (R) favored over the field, 3 to 2 (60% chance to be re-elected)

• Georgia Senate: Sen. Max Cleland (D) is SLIGHTLY FAVORED to be re-elected, 4 to 3 (57.1% chance)

• Illinois Governor: Republican open seat; Democrats favored 15 to 14 to win governorship (51.7% chance next governor will be a Democrat); incumbent George Ryan (R) not running again

• Iowa Senate: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) favored for re-election, 5 to 4 (55.5% chance to be re-elected)

• Minnesota Senate: Sen. Paul Wellstone slightly favored over Norm Coleman (R), 12 to 11 (52.2% chance)

• Missouri Senate: Sen. Jean Carnahan slightly favored to be re-elected over the field, 5 to 4

• New Hampshire House: John E. Sununu (R) not seeking re-election; Republicans favored to retain seat, 8 to 7 (52.9% chance Republican will win)

  New Hampshire Senate: Sen. Bob Smith to be defeated, 4 to 3 (Smith has a 42.9% chance to win re-election)

  New Hampshire Governor: Democrat open seat if Shaheen runs. Republicans and Democrats favored equally.

• New Jersey Governor: Jim McGreevey (D) favored over Bret Schundler (R), 6 to 5 (54.5% chance to win)

• New York Governor: Gov. George Pataki (R) favored over the field, 7 to 3 (70% chance to be re-elected) Pataki's chances upgraded from 57.1% after the Sept. 11 attack

• North Carolina Senate: Sen. Jesse Helms not running again; Republicans favored to retain seat, 10 to 9 (52.6% chance next senator will be a Republican)

• Oregon Governor: Democrat open seat; Republicans favored over Democrats, 15 to 14 (51.7% chance the next governor will be a Republican)

  Oregon Senate: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) slightly favored to be re-elected over the field, 6 to 5

• South Carolina: Sen. Strom Thurmond (R) not seeking re-election; Republicans favored to retain seat, 2 to 1 (Republican chances are 66.6%)

• South Dakota House: John Thune (R) not seeking re-election; Republicans favored to hold seat, 10 to 9

  South Dakota Senate: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) and John Thune (R), even

• Texas Senate: Sen. Phil Gramm (R) not seeking re-election; Republicans favored to hold the seat 5 to 4 (55.6% chance next senator will be a Republican)

  Texas Governor: Gov. Rick Perry (R) favored over the field, 3 to 2 (60% chance to be elected)

• Virginia Governor: Mark Warner (D) favored over Mary Earley (R), 9 to 8 (Warner has 52.9% chance to win; Warner's odds downgraded from 53.3% chance on 8/24/01)

• Wyoming Governor: Republican open seat; Republicans favored over Democrats, 4 to 3 (57.1% chance the next governor will be a Republican)

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