Posted on 10/29/2001 10:47:21 AM PST by AndrewSshi
Winter has rarely been kind to invading forces. Think of Napoleon's or Hitler's armies freezing to death in Russia (in 1944, one German wrote home that "it's so cold even my soul is frozen"). By almost all accounts, the United States is soon going to face a similar fate in Afghanistan. The major papers are studded with references to winter as a "deadline" or even a "double deadline" with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. A typical account appeared in The Washington Post on Friday, describing winter as "fearsome" and quoting a former Kremlin chief military adviser asked what would happen to the United States during the Afghan winter. "Nothing good, that's for sure," came the reply. Winter will surely cause problems. Snow is already beginning to close off mountain passes; winter storms can crash helicopters into mountainsides; cloud cover can partially disrupt spying and targeting for laser-guided bombs; special forces could even lose their night vision if their breath freezes on their goggles. There's also no doubt that Taliban fighters have more cold-weather fighting experience and that winter could aggravate Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis.
But as far as the war is concerned, the United States is much better off than conventional wisdom has it. The country is currently fighting the war of perhaps the greatest technological discrepancy ever: the most powerful and well-equipped military in history battling a poorly-equipped one. The Taliban and Osama bin Laden have once again proven their tenacity, and even their media savvy. But on balance, winter will only make the United States' advantages more potent and, in many ways, make the war easier.
For example, infrared sensors work by picking up differences in heat between the object under observation and the surrounding area. A man standing in a warm garden is relatively hard to pick up. A man standing around a fire (or a generator) in a cold cave is just about an ideal target. Airpower also can be more effective. At the fighters' cruising altitude, there isn't much difference between winter and summer. On clear days--and there will be clear days even in Afghanistan's winter, particularly since there'll be less dust in the air--the United States will be able to hit targets with the same accuracy it has been hitting them so far. It may actually be easier to track Taliban troop movements from U.S. reconnaissance planes, because their prints will be visible in the snow. Unless it's storming, helicopters tend to do better in winter because air is thicker, increasing lift and the smoothness of the ride.
Winter will also accentuate the United States' advantage in supplies. A key campaign objective so far has been to knock out the Taliban's fuel supplies. Given the extent of the damage inflicted so far, Taliban fighters will have to endure more than a few three-dog nights, which increases the likelihood of defections, particularly if the United States gives the Northern Alliance troops warm blankets and keeps them as cozy as defense officials say it will.
This is not to say that the Taliban are going to roll over when special forces troops arrive. Taliban fighters have a great deal of winter experience, and perhaps even some equipment advantages. For example, the grease and lubrication that American soldiers use in their guns might freeze and, even if DARPA has invented the world's greatest manufactured grease, it's possible the Taliban have stumbled onto something that works far better when the temperature drops to minus 20. "There's a possibility that Yak fat might work better," says Dan Goure of the Lexington Institute.
If the United States wanted to occupy Afghanistan, yes, that would be serious cause for concern. But special forces will be well outfitted and relatively mobile. If the United States can avoid storms, it should be able to shuttle special forces in and out by helicopters skipping over passes that trap Taliban and Al Qaeda forces and avoiding many of the landmines that prove so deadly when not buried in the snow. Plus, U.S. and British soldiers will be outfitted in Gortex uniforms and Kevlar helmets, moving around on insulated snowshoes or glass-fiber skis and using GPS technology that, theoretically at least, should allow them to locate targets even at night in wicked snowstorms. Soviet fighters say that in the '80s the Afghans fought them wearing rubber boots without socks--things probably haven't changed much.
Taliban fighters do know the lay of the land and they're used to fighting in winter. Still, the troops coming in aren't rookies--U.S. Special Forces often train in hellacious environments, and the British troops joining them train inside the Arctic Circle--and the people they will be hunting aren't all native Afghans. Some of Al Qaeda's men are newly arrived from the desert regions in the Middle East--and even those who arrived earlier, such as Osama bin Laden, have never faced similar fuel, food, and movement restraints.
The war in winter won't be quick and it won't be easy. But the goal isn't to occupy and to conquer. It's to destroy the terrorist network and get out quickly. And, yak fat probably isn't all it's cracked up to be.
And its tasty too - just lick the cold rifle and find out (grin)
There was an excellent comment on another thread regarding the Game Plan as being that of using Winter to our advantage! If they have all of these new fighters but have no food or fuel or transportation to run over the border to Pakistan to acquire more that by Spring they would not be in good shape !
Will be hell for the Civilian population though , if any is left in Kabul!
For example, how does an American heat-seeking missile know whether it is zeroing in on OBL's cave or a wood-burning stove in the home of a local civilian?
NR's blank-check endorsement of the aimless way Dumbya seems to be prosecuting this war is disturbing. In Viet Nam War days, NR was much more skeptical about lies handed out by pols, both Repukie and Democrap.
It may sound inhumane but better to let winter do the job for us by cutting off ALL food and other supplies to the whole damn country so that the population becomes such a burden that the Taliban government breaks down under the load. Close the borders and let no one or no thing in or out. They laid siege to castles in the 7th century (which by the way is the time frame where most of these people are living)and starved them into submission. Better a million of them than one of us! It was General Patton who observed that.."you win wars not by dying for your country but by making the other fellow die for his country!"
If you want to eat..throw the ba$tard$ out. Then we'll send in the lamb chops.
To answer your question, how many peasants' wood-burning stoves are there going to be located inside caves? Second, I think wood-burning stoves are about three steps above the Afghani level of development. Third - the heat signatures would be very different for a band of ten or so men moving randomly around a cave, and a single artifical heat source that isn't going anywhere.
Maybe the reason we are reacting hesitantly thus far is that we are actually waiting for winter."
Infrared viewing apparatus will point us TO the target, but the bomb itself will still be guided by GPS or Laser. You dont "drop" heat seeking missles on targets.
Heat seeking missiles are not used on ground targets, only air to air targets that have a hot engine exhaust. Ground targets are aimed using GPS, far more accurate for all essentially fixed ground targets.
NR's blank-check endorsement of the aimless way Dumbya seems to be prosecuting this war is disturbing.
Gee, I would love to know what part is disturbing? The part where the murderous thugs are getting hammered and vaporized? Maybe the part where hundreds of financial accounts of the murderous thugs all over the world have been frozen leading to the heavy bleeding of the finacial blood of their fatwah? Maybe the part where Bush has a 91% approval rating? Let me know. What part of "Find them, and eliminate them." don't you understand?
In Viet Nam War days, NR was much more skeptical about lies handed out by pols, both Repukie and Democrap.
In Vietnam war days, the Dempcrap Robert McNamara was the villian who lied, interfered, and authorized every move in the war. He tied the hands of our soldiers, forcing them to fly past perfectly worthy targets until the target was authorized 24 hours later. Of course, the target was gone 24 hours later. Now we have a president who gives the straight order and lets the military do what they do best: Carry it out.
This entire successful response under Republican guidance has to be killing you liberals. Osama attacked the U.S. repeatedly, and we had 8 years of Clinton being to much of a coward to face off with Osama. The many attacks happened during Clinton's entire 8 year carreer, while he was getting BJ's, finishing himself in a sink, releasing 16 imprisoned FALN terrorists in 1999, treating women like dirt, and getting impeached. Clinton was not just soft on terrorism, he fostered it.
Interesting. Apparantly MurkyMonkey is learning that blind fealty to her side got us into this mess.
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