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Posted on 11/10/2001 1:38:45 AM PST by MadIvan

JOHN HOWARD, the Australian prime minister, has a third consecutive election victory in his sights today, a result that would cap a remarkable comeback for the self-described political Lazarus.

A shrewd campaign centred on national security, sound economic management and strong leadership at a time of global uncertainty has placed Mr Howard within reach of an achievement all but written off at the start of the year.

The final opinion polls, to be published today, will show Mr Howard's conservative coalition between four and five points ahead of the Labour opposition. While the government's paper-thin majority of six seats still leaves Labour in a position to nudge across the line, most commentators - and the bookmakers - have tipped the prime minister to triumph.

His campaign has benefited from the war on terrorism and the asylum seeker crisis, which have stifled Labour's strategy of emphasising domestic concerns. Time and again the Labour leader, Kim Beazley, has sought to turn public attention to the education, health, employment and an unpopular VAT-style tax introduced by the Howard government.

But the sight of Australian troops setting sail to join the war effort in Afghanistan, and repeated boatloads of refugees being repelled by a tough new naval blockade, were manifestly in Mr Howard's favour.

The final day of campaigning was overshadowed by an asylum seeker incident, with two women drowning at sea and 160 other refugees, including 30 children, rescued by the navy after their boat was set on fire off Australia's north coast.

While Mr Howard has been condemned for his tough stance on boat people, he has enjoyed a surge in blue-collar support and analysts are convinced that his position has proved a vote winner.

The most thunderous applause at the Liberal campaign launch was reserved for what would become the prime minister's mantra: "We decide who comes into this country and the circumstances in which they come."

It is not the first time that Mr Howard, a solicitor who entered parliament in 1974, has been accused of playing the race card. Talk of restricting Asian immigration, and an obdurate refusal to issue a formal apology to Aborigines for past injustices, aroused the ire of the liberal intelligentsia.

But Mr Howard has refused to pander to the group he terms "the elites", revelling in his reputation as an ordinary family man with a passion for cricket and a penchant for brisk, early morning walks. Critics say he lacks charisma and vision.

At the start of the year political obituaries were already being prepared for the Howard government, which was trailing Labour by 14 points. The turnaround in Mr Howard's fortunes began in August, when he refused to take in more than 430 asylum seekers rescued by the Norwegian freighter, Tampa, off Christmas island.

His personal popularity rating rocketed, despite a chorus of condemnation from human rights advocates, Church groups, academics and politicians. If he wins, Mr Howard will become only the fourth prime minister to have won three elections or more. But whatever the result, this will almost certainly be his last.

He has said he will reassess his future in 2003, when he turns 64, and is widely expected to hand over the leadership to his heir apparent, the party treasurer, Peter Costello.

The BBC is now reporting on its site that the Conservatives in Australia have indeed triumphed. They've utterly avoided the Third Way yet again, perhaps that's why they call Australia "the lucky country". Go Big John!

Regards, Ivan

But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour."

Today is Trinity Sunday. Centuries ago words were written to be a call and a spur to the faithful servants of Truth and Justice: "Arm yourselves, and be ye men of valour, and be in readiness for the conflict; for it is better for us to perish in battle than to look upon the outrage of our nation and our altar. As the Will of God is in Heaven, even so let it be." - Winston Churchill, 1940

This then, my lords and gentlemen, is the message which we send forth today to all states and nations, bound or free, to all the men in all the lands who care for freedom's cause. To our Allies and well-wishers in Europe, to our American friends and helpers drawing ever closer in their might across the ocean, this is the message-lift up your hearts, all will come right. Out of depths of sorrow and sacrifice will be born again the glory of mankind. - Winston Churchill, 1941

"What kind of a people do they think we are? Is it possible that they do not realize that we shall never cease to persevere against them until they have been taught a lesson which they and the world will never forget?" - Winston Churchill, 1941


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