Posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:13 PM PST by Pokey78
The war may not be over, but America will emerge from the challenge stronger
This has been the most significant week in international politics since the fall of the Berlin Wall a dozen years ago. A strong case can be made that it is, in fact, rather more important.
The reunification of Germany signalled the end of one order — a dramatic event certainly — but it offered no indication as to what structure would follow it. International society spent the 1990s in a state of drift and uncertainty. The process was hardly helped by the fact that the US was led by a man who was about as suitable for the task of serving as Commander-in-Chief as he would have been heading the American Celibacy Association.
Caution is a legitimate part of the armoury of battle. It is perfectly sensible for politicians in the United States and elsewhere to warn that the Taleban are not beaten yet, that they may retreat to the hills and regroup, that the Northern Alliance are not Liberal Democrats with short beards, and that the task of constructing a new multiethnic regime in Kabul will be difficult.
That may all be true, but it does not render this victory Pyrrhic. The sole reason why, in brutal truth, anyone in the United States or Britain should care who runs the show in Kabul is if the characters concerned opt to provide shelter and succour for the likes of Osama bin Laden. The Northern Alliance might revert to type, but if so then we can leave them to it. They might be a menace in their patch, but they are not a threat to the exercise of normal life in New York or London.
The overwhelming probability now is that, as the optimists argued on the night that the bombing started, the United States will have achieved the majority of its objectives by Christmas. It is possible that bin Laden might remain at nominal liberty for longer than that, but I doubt it.
The task of locating him has been compared to “finding a needle in a haystack”. But a needle would not be taxing to identify if it was obliged to move about to avoid detection, or if wisps of hay could be bribed to reveal where it was and, if all else failed, and it were possible, to blow up the haystack in its entirety.
As Anatole Kaletsky pointed out in these pages yesterday, the triumph of the optimists required only a modest degree of belief in the power of reason. On the same basis, the allegedly “surprising” good US retail sales figures released on Wednesday could have been anticipated. The predictions of the pessimists about the condition of the international economy next year, like those of the fatalists on the duration of the war, stand ready to be routed. Very low interest rates, fiscal expansion whether by tax cuts or higher public spending and sharply falling oil prices — against the backdrop of minimal inflation and strong fundamentals — are not the textbook conditions for a prolonged depression.
The United States has a real chance now of avoiding even a technical recession and there is every prospect that its growth rate on September 11, 2002, will be notably higher than it would have been if the terrorist attacks had not happened a year earlier.
The nature of this renewed American hegemony will not, however, be that expected in Western Europe. In the aftermath of September 11, there has been much written about how the Bush Administration, having flirted with a dangerous new form of “unilateralism”, has been driven back into a form of “multilateralism” similar to the stance adopted by its predecessor. When this conflict ends, it is sagely said, the Americans will realise that they cannot act alone and that their awesome power is subject to a wider consensus.
This is total nonsense. The current campaign does not involve a “coalition” in any meaningful sense of that term (the US is not bargaining as such with its partners) but an alliance with a single leader. It is not “multilateral” in any credible sense either, in that 99 per cent of bombs dropped and missiles fired have been sent by the Pentagon, and the vast majority of special forces on the ground in Afghanistan have been American. And while it is, on balance, unlikely that the US will embark on a direct military campaign against Iraq (there are more subtle ways of containing Saddam), that conclusion will be reached exclusively on the basis of US national interests.
When the Afghan campaign closes, the Bush Administration will move further from, and not closer to, the Clinton foreign policy. There is absolutely no chance that the President will abandon national missile defence, sign the Kyoto Protocol, or invest much faith in worthy international treaties as the best means to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Bush may be willing to deploy his political capital to close a deal on the Middle East but he will not, whatever Tony Blair or anyone else might ask, waste weeks at Camp David in the hope of a piece of fudge that he can parade for the cameras.
American foreign policy in the years to come will be, in other words, “unilateral”, but with an emphasis on different spheres and parts of the world than the Bush team initially calculated. The result, all the same, is set to be an unambiguous version of Pax Americana.
This is then the paradoxical achievement of bin Laden and his network. They spent many years planning the attacks on New York and Washington in the belief that they would humiliate the United States, drive all aspects of American influence out of the Middle East and then trigger a global economic meltdown.
It is instead far more probable that the end result of their foul endeavours will be a vast reassertion of American power, the humiliation of radical Islam and a stronger economy than would have occurred if al-Qaeda had stayed in its caves. With enemies like this, who needs friends?
Yeah, they are much more reasonable, friendly, and appreciative of freedom than David Bonior.
These terrorist jokers thought they could scare America enough to retreat, but in fact they have made it even more clear that we need to be active abroad to assure security at home.
That is about as unilateral as you can get. What that is gang is a threat.
This war is like Vietnam. But this time WE get to be Charlie. The taliban just decided that trying to defend territory against an enemy that hits and runs is not possible. So they ran to the hills.
This is not the first time an Afghanistan government has done this. They did the same thing against the Russians. The problem is resupply of food and amunition. The last time we supplied them with food and ammo against the Russians. This time the most they can hope for is a trickle through Pakistan. But that will not feed them.
So they will freeze and starve in the caves or they will surrender.
We are winning a war with high tech in the air, and surrogates on the ground. Now comes the seige of the Taliban in the mountains. They have no way out.
Since 'nam the question has been whether the US has the will to fight. Desert Storm proved we had the ability. Now we've got to show we've the guts to take a hit and get back up.
One main benefit of this has been that it has uncovered the fools and twits who dominate the media, and reminded America of who we are -- rather than what is fashionable.
The article is worth it for this quote alone...
As long as the U.S. continues to choose leaders like George Bush, and to follow this example, all of this will be one of the greatest gifts God has ever given to the world--to make The American Dream the Dream of the World--to give the world a Second American Century.
The greatest danger is American decadence--in the form of Liberalism. If left unchecked, Liberalism will destroy the Dream as well as America.
WHAT Clinton foreign policy?! In any event... great! Glad to hear it!
Exactly!!! America rules. Do NOT mess with us.
I didn't want to make a whole post about this, but it's weird.
Henna. It's a decorative dye used for many purposes, one of them being "tattoos" that will wear off over the period of a few weeks.
The 20th Century was mis-named the American Century. It was merely a prelude to the global hegemony America will extend in the 21st century. The last immediate mortal foe - the USSR – has been defeated. China does not have the resources to be anything but a regional power for the foreseeable future.
George Bush could very well go down in history as America’s Caesar. He has grasped the reins of global leadership with gusto. He has established, as no other leader has, America as “first among equals” among the nations of the world. The author is right: there is no coalition. There is American supremacy with other governments following in our wake, swearing their fealty.
When the Afghanistan problem is settled, it will be the turn of other enemies. And the members of the “coalition” will follow along – or become our future enemy. And that will be unhealthy for the political leaders in those countries.
The nature of the world is changing rapidly. At the beginning of the 20th century European empires covered the globe and hereditary monarchs reigned. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo was the spark that brought the old order crashing down. Thanks to the spark ignited by Osama bin Laden, the 21st century is transforming the global order.
For those who yearn for a return to an America of the Founders, it was always a pipe dream. But even the dream was vaporized when the Twin Towers fell. At this point in history, America has the resources and the will to establish its hegemony over the globe. Some people will like it, others will not, but to win this war, it’s inevitable.
Remember the old Chinese curse: “may you live in interesting times.”
I prefer to think of it as prophecy.
If it weren't for loser Euro fags, commies, cowards, paperpushers, fat ugly grape sumgler wearing pale bluber guted gun less dweebs with their hairy legged monkey shaved topless sunglass wearing penny pinching wimp spawning wives.
Europe sucks, glad the folks left two hundred years ago.
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