Posted on 12/02/2001 3:14:55 PM PST by blam
Argentina close to collapse after run on banks
By Jan McGirk, Latin America Correspondent
03 December 2001
Argentina edged close to bankruptcy yesterday as people queued at cashpoint machines and bank tellers' windows to withdraw money after a government decree restricting bank withdrawals and overseas transfers.
Passengers on planes and ships were frisked for illegal dollar stashes before leaving the country. The decree sparked fears of an imminent devaluation of the peso, wiping out savings overnight.
The run on the banks was only the latest sign that the financial crisis that has rocked Latin America's third-largest economy for the past four years shows no signs of abating.
It was reported that savers withdrew at least $400mon Friday. Local banks have lost 17 per cent of their deposits worth $14.5bn this year.
Rumours that President Fernando de la Rua would be forced to resign and call early elections after a default on the country's $130bn debt fuelled the crisis. The President's austerity measures have made him deeply unpopular and have proved largely ineffective. Thousands of unemployed Argentine professionals are applying for overseas visas and fleeing into economic exile.
After analysts warned that the financial system might collapse within 10 days, the government capped cash withdrawals at $250 a week for the next three months.
Domingo Cavallo, the economy minister who pegged the peso to the dollar 10 years ago, said the regulations would "defend the interest of Argentines and stop the flight of capital until we can restore confidence". He urged Argentines to keep their cash in the banks and show faith in a massive debt swap even as interest rates soared.
"Deposits and the value of the peso and dollar in Argentina are untouchable and guaranteed. Those who disbelieve or mistrust will end up losing out," he said. In the 1980s personal savings were converted into government bonds overnight at a poor rate of exchange. Recently, government employees took to the streets in protest after their salaries were paid in bonds.
To counter worries that savings in pesos will be devalued while locked inside bank vaults, officials have promised to permit depositors to convert their peso accounts into US dollars without charge.
Overseas and offshore transfers of more than $1,000 will be severely restricted in the coming months. The government will also forbid new bank loans in pesos, and insist financial institutions lend only in dollars. Business leaders read that as a signal that the government is about to ditch the peso for the US dollar as the national currency. The peso is already considered overvalued, which makes it difficult for Argentina to compete with neighbouring Brazil and Chile. But President De la Rua denied he would tamper with the currency's value or step down.
Union leaders called the banking measures "the hijacking of a nation's savings," and said strikes may be called for next week.
I've long been intrigued by Argentina.
You will note, nowever, on page 4 of the linked file above, that only 1.9% of these assets are gold certificates, while just over 90% are "US Government and Federal Agency Securities."
Now, I don't know about you, but when the government prints a new $1 billion bond on their LaserJet and gives it to the Federal Reserve System, and the Federal Reserve creates a $1 billion book entry with a few keystrokes, and then pays the Bureau of Engraving and Printing 2.3 cents per note to print up a new batch of Federal Reserve Notes to go with their new book entry, I'm not entirely convinced that the FRB has an "asset" or what they've produced is "money."
If every dollar in your pocket is one small piece of the national debt, how are we ever supposed to pay it off?
For another perspective on this, see NORFED. They're producing a 100% value-backed (silver and gold) currency that is designed to circulate on par with Federal Reserve Notes.
In any event, my understanding is that a lot of argentinas current problems (their breathtakingly corrupt government and huge foreign debt aside) is that the brazilian real has been devalued to the point that imports from brazil are killing argentine domestic industry.
jan 1970: 1 "Peso Ley 18188" = 100 "pesos moneda nacional".
june 1983: 1 Peso Argentino = 10000 pesos ley 18188.
june 1985: 1 austral = 1000 pesos argentinos.
jan 1992 1 peso = 1 USD = 10000 australes.....
-Michael Pelletier.
I think this is part of the problem. As the USD has appreciated against the other currencies, Argentinian exports have become too high priced, leading to a drop in trade. The problem is particularly bad with respect to trade with Brazil, whose currency is not pegged to the dollar. There was discussion several months back about pegging the Argentinian currency to the Euro or a mix of USD and Euro, which would seem to have been a wise move to have made.
the debt cycle they are in isnt going to be paid back, it is just a matter of them paying off other governments to 'forgive' them and get more loans to meet their interest payments.
I guess i am quite impressed the peso convertible lasted as long as it did.
If they pegged to, say, the brazilian real, the mexican peso, the chilean peso, or whatever, they run the very real risk of having their pegged currency experience one or more of those wonderful 1000% inflation years at some time in the next 10 years., which is, of course, what argentina itself was doing on and off until they pegged at parity to the dollar. The dollar being chosen versus swiss franc or euro or british pound (that would be quite amusing politically, as the argentine government still does their rabblerousing over the falklands every year) undoubtably had a lot to do with the fact that no euro existed in 1992... and there was really no conceivable reason to peg to switzerland or germany or whoever versus the u.s.
As far as some of the comments on repegged to the euro or mixed euro/dollar, to me the same issue is that it would NOT fix the brazil problem and the overall % change in currency value would be only a few % i would think over a year maybe, but it would create a real confidence issue (just bringing it up in march/april created a fair amount of concern of what they were up to)
For another perspective on this, see NORFED . They're producing a 100% value-backed (silver and gold) currency that is designed to circulate on par with Federal Reserve Notes.
So here's what happens when you buy one:
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Exchanging money through NORFED isn't a way to buy and hold silver -- like they say, if you want to do that, go buy silver bullion. It's a way to use the free-market commodity of silver as currency in your day to day economic transactions, in such a way that allows it to circulate in an economy dominated by Federal Reserve Notes, and allows the bookkeeper to balance his books at the end of the day without trying to figure out what the price of silver should be on that particular day.
No?
$4.18 is the price of a 5000 ounce ingot of silver in New York. Try offering $4.18 for one ounce of silver at your local pawn or coin shop and you'll be laughed out of the joint. Go ahead, try it sometime.
I don't care what you call it, the people doing this are wrapping $4 pieces of paper in a bunch of bogus flag rhetoric and selling them for $10. You say a person can use them in day-to-day transactions. Who the hell even knows what they are? What dry cleaner or gas station attendant is going to go, "Oh, OK" when I hand him a "warehouse receipt" with the Statue of Liberty on it? Somebody has to be pretty far into Kookland before they will proudly say, "Yep, I pay ten dollars for my $5 bills, and I do that so I won't have to use those worthless Federal Reserve Notes." Especially when the next thing they have to say is, "What's that? You don't take these? I'll have you know I paid $10 for this $5 bill. No dice, eh? Yeah, I got a Mastercard here... wait a minute." |
For gold, you could pay US$73.71 for a legal tender US 1/4 gold coin with a face value of US$10 (I have one in my pocket that my wife gave me for my birthday), or $290.75 for a 1oz coin with a face value of $50. From the Canadian Mint, you could pay CAD$456.82 for a one ounce Gold Maple Leaf with CAD$50 face value (US$31.82).
You could use any of these coins at their legal tender face values to buy groceries (provided the grocer will accept them as payment, of course -- just because it's legal tender doesn't obligate a merchant to accept it, eg. paying with a $100 bill at a gas station or fast food joint), either in the US or Canada respectively, but you'd be an even bigger fool than you'd consider someone using ALD to be.
The face value of the ALD Silver Liberty has a 1:1 exchange ratio to FRN, unlike the 6.5:1 ratio for Silver Eagles, or the 9.14:1 ratio of the Canadian $50 Maple Leaf.
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