Posted on 12/19/2001 5:02:23 AM PST by areafiftyone
President George W. Bush's popularity is soaring among American Jews -- maybe.
A poll of 400 Jewish voters commissioned by the Republican Jewish Coalition at the end of November showed Bush's approval rating among American Jews had soared to 80 percent. That is four times the percentage of Jewish votes he received a year ago in the presidential election and as high an approval rating as President Clinton and Vice President Al Gore ever enjoyed.
If those figures are supported by later polls and prove to be lasting, they will mark a political shift of truly seismic proportions in U.S. politics. But both still seem unlikely, and the figures may well prove to be misleading in several ways.
First, the poll was taken at the high water mark so far of Bush's presidency, as the Taliban regime in Afghanistan collapsed. Also, there had been no further major terrorist attack in the United States since the atrocities of Sept. 11 destroyed the World Trade Center and killed more than 3,000 Americans. The impact of both those achievements looks virtually certain to disappear or at least be diluted in the coming months.
The precedent of U.S. public opinion flows in the two years following the 1991 Gulf War show that military victory cannot guarantee a president's popularity when it comes time for re-election in two -- or in the current case three -- years down the line.
The earlier victory may have been forgotten, overshadowed by more recent events or taken for granted. Most likely, if the economy heads into recession and widespread hardship or setbacks result, the luster of being a popular war winner does not last very long. Also, further major terrorist attacks in the future could seriously damage Bush's credibility among Jewish as well as other voters.
Second, the U.S. economy's slide into recession still looks all too likely. It has been cushioned in the past month by a relatively strong Christmas shopping rush. But if the fall resumes in January, with a huge rise in unemployment comparable to that in the fall, the president's approval ratings in general are likely to plummet.
Third, Bush is enjoying the patriotic wave of being a war president and the polls reflected that fervor. However, as noted already, the experience of his father after the 1991 Gulf War showed that support in general, and Jewish support for a war against enemies of both the United States and Israel does not automatically translate into electoral support.
Less than two years after the 1991 Gulf War, the first President Bush saw his 90 percent approval rating among American Jews plummet to only 20 percent of them voting for him.
Fourth, the poll was carried out by a Republican pollster: Frank Luntz. He is one of the most expert in the business, but until the figures are seen to be independently confirmed by other polling organizations, those who want to dismiss them as partisan, however unfair that assumption is, look likely to continue to do so.
And even, as appears to be the case, that the figures are legitimate, the assumption will be that because they were taken at the moment of victory in Afghanistan, they will prove to be an ephemeral flash in the pan.
The poll, however, reflects several other factors as well as Bush's success in directing the U.S. war to crush the Taliban and the al Qaida terrorist organization in Afghanistan.
The president has been mounting a serious drive to woo American Jewish support. He set aside most of a full White House day on Dec. 10 to meet with Jewish leaders and pointedly celebrated the Jewish festival of Chanukah that day in the White House residence Dec. 10 with Jewish children.
That same day, Bush and his National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice discussed terrorism policies with major American Jewish leaders and then hosted them to a Chanukah party in the White House.
Bush's enthusiasm to woo Jewish support reflects his own deeply rooted personal philo-Semitism. The president's natural sympathy for the Jewish people and Israel appears to have been boosted by his horrified personal reaction to the Dec. 1-2 terrorist attacks that killed 28 Israelis in the cities of Haifa and Jerusalem and wounded hundreds more.
But it may also reflect the fact that high hopes of significant Muslim, especially Arab American support, for the Republican Party in last year's presidential election did not help him very much when the chips were down. Arab Americans overwhelmingly voted for Bush. But even in populous and Electoral College crucial Michigan, they did not appear to make any significant impact on the final result.
On the other hand, Florida, the most vital swing state of all that Bush finally one by the merest whisper, has a large and highly politically active Jewish community, and Bush knows he needs shore up their support in particular to have a fighting chance of reelection in 2004.
The Republican push to win more Jewish votes is very real. But the poll results suggesting it has already succeeded should be given the old skeptical Scottish court of law ruling: "Not proven."
PING!
Things change!
Alas
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