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www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"Larry J. Sabato and David WassermanU.Va. Center for PoliticsNovember 2, 2006 Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several...

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. "Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the...

IREY CAMP: TRIB-REVIEW 'POLL' DOESN'T PASS THE SMELL TEST Thursday, October 12, 2006 (MONONGAHELA, October 12) -- Irey for Congress general consultant Bill Pascoe -- responding to the release of a suspect survey in today's Pittsburgh Tribune-Review -- today released the following statement: "Today's Tribune-Review contained a report on a 'poll' with suspect methodology and even more suspect results. No one interested in the race between Jack Murtha and Diana Irey should be fooled into thinking this race is actually where this 'poll' says it's at -- unless, of course, the interested person is a Jack Murtha supporter, and his...

John Spratt (D) 56% Ralph Norman (R) 42% Undecided 2% 408 Likely Voters, +/- 4.9 MOE

NEW YORK — There has been little change in the past two weeks regarding intentions for the upcoming congressional election; by a 9-point margin, voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican if the election were held today, compared with an 11-point margin two weeks ago. Only 11 percent of voters say the congressional page scandal will be extremely important to their vote, although nearly half see the scandal as part of a larger pattern of Washington abuse of power rather than an isolated incident. These are just some of the findings from the...

Democrat McCaskill Pulls Ahead of Talent in MO, U.S. Senate Seat May 'Flip': In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/12/06, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Republican incumbent Jim Talent 51% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/14/06, McCaskill has gained 3 points and Talent has lost 5 points. McCaskill's advantage has grown from 1 point to 9 points. The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/06. Most of the movement in the race comes from Independent...

All polls were taken from October 8th to October 10th. (Sunday through Tuesday). Polls have between 963 and 1069 likely voters EACH. The margin of error on the polls is between +/- 2.9 percent and +/- 3.1 percent. ARIZONA 1STRick Renzi (R) 46%Ellen Simon (D) 50% CALIFORNIA 4THJohn Doolittle (R) 52% Charles Brown (D) 44% COLORADO 7THRick O'Donnell (R) 47% Ed Perlmutter (D) 47% CONNECTICUT 5THNancy Johnson (R) 52%Chris Murphy (D) 46% FLORIDA 13THVern Buchanan (R) 44%Christine Jennings (D) 47% IOWA 2NDJim Leach (R) 47%David Loebsack (D) 48% IDAHO 1STBill Sali (R) 46%Larry Grant (D) 43% ILLINOIS 6THPeter Roskam (R)...

With nearly four weeks to go before the Nov. 7 election, a poll commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review shows incumbent U.S. Rep. John P. Murtha holding a strong lead over his GOP challenger, Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. If the election were held today, the Johnstown Democrat would coast to an 18th term in the 12th Congressional District, according to results of the poll conducted Oct. 7-8 by Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg. Murtha leads Irey 57 percent to 30 percent, according to the survey of 400 voters. Eleven percent of those polled were undecided, 1 percent said they...

A SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Brown defeats DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points. Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points. Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19...

A new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showing Democrat Joe Donnelly leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, by a 16-percentage-point count "has no basis in reality," according to a Chocola source. The poll results, released amid reports that Democrats are pulling ahead in several races nationwide, were backed as accurate by the DCCC and embraced by the Donnelly campaign. "Joe Donnelly's winning," said DCCC spokesman Bill Burton. "It's clear from everything we're seeing that Indiana families are sick of what they see in Washington, and that's what we're seeing in these polls." But Burton cautioned that the race is...

Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 48% Bob Corker (R) 46% Undecided 5% 500 Likely Voters, Survey Conducted on October 10th

Bob Menendez (D) 44% Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 40% Undecided 15% 500 Likely Voters, Survey Conducted October 10th

October 11, 2006 - Nelson Leads Harris 61 - 33 In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say U.S. Is Losing The War In Iraq In the Florida Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has a commanding 61 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris among likely voters, including leaners, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent are undecided and 18 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind in the next four weeks. Sen. Nelson leads Rep. Harris 56 - 31 percent among registered...

Sarah Palin (R) 47% Tony Knowles (D) 40% Undecided 13% 500 Likely Voters Survey conducted October 9th

Rick Perry (R) 34% Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 21% Chris Bell (D) 19% Kinky Friedman (I) 18% 500 Likely Voters Survey conducted October 9th

Joe Lieberman (I) 53% Ned Lamont (D) 40% Alan Schlesinger (R) 4% Other/undecided 2% 572 Likely Voters +/- 4.2% MOE

Virgil Goode (R) 56% Al Weed (D) 40% Oddo (IG) 4% Undecided 2% 502 Likely Voters MOE +/- 4.4%

Mary Fallin (R) 62% David Hunter (D) 33% Woodson (I) 3% Undecided 2% 435 Likely Voters MOE +/- 4.7%

Republican Senator Rick Santorum continues to be the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent and has lost ground once again to Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. Casey now leads the race, 50% to 37%. If undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are added to the mix, Casey leads 52% to 39%. We are now shifting this race from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary. Santorum is the only Republican incumbent to have his re-election chances rated weaker than “Leans Democrat.” The weakest Democrat of 2006 is New Jersey’s Bob Menendez whose race with Tom Kean Jr. (R)...

The Bliss Institute 2006 General Election Survey finds Democrat Ted Strickland with a substantial lead over Republican Ken Blackwell in the race for Ohio governor. However, the race for U.S. Senate is a dead heat between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike DeWine. The Republican candidate leads in the race for attorney general, while the Democratic candidates are ahead in the campaigns for auditor, secretary of state, and treasurer. In terms of ballot measures, a proposal to raise the minimum wage is backed by an overwhelming majority, while proposals to allow slot machines and to ban smoking in public places...

The man hoping to oust incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee is leading in two new polls released today. Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse has a 10-point lead in the poll conducted by the national independent pollster Rasmussen Reports. He leads Chafee 49 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided and 4 percent supporting other candidates. A separate poll released by Rhode Island College's Bureau of Government Research and Services found that Whitehouse leads by 3 percentage points, 40 percent to 37 percent with 23 percent undecided. Both polls have a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. Rasmussen surveyed...

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Charlie Crist? Democrat Jim Davis? Or some other candidate? 54% Crist (R) 41% Davis (D) 5% Other/Undecided Florida voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Katherine Harris? Democrat Bill Nelson? Or some other candidate? 37% Harris (R) 55% Nelson (D) 8% Other/Undecided 514 Likely voters, MOE +/- 4.4 percent

539 Likely voters, +/- 4.2 percent MOE October 7th-9th Ford (D) 46% Corker (R) 48% Other/undecided 6% Bredesen (D-inc) 63% Bryson (R) 32% Undecided/other 5% Partisan breakdowns were 39R/37D/21I

DFL Wetterling Gaining On Bachmann in MN6: In an election in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/9/05, Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFL Candidate Patty Wetterling, 47% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Since an identical SurveyUSA KSTP-TV poll released 9/19/06, Bachmann has lost 3 points and Wetterling has gained 3 points. Bachmann had led by 9, now leads by 3. There is day-to-day movement within this survey that may or may not be significant. SurveyUSA has broken out separately, as a crosstab, in the tabular display, the results from 10/6, 10/7 and 10/8. Separately,...

Sodrel-Hill IN9 Rubber Match Too Close To Call: In an election today, 10/9/06, in Indiana's 9th Congressional District, Democrat challenger Baron Hill and Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel are neck-and-neck, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. 29 days to the 11/7/06 election, it's Hill 48%, Sodrel 46%. Hill was elected to represent Indiana's 9th District in 1998, 2000, and 2002. Sodrel, who had lost to Hill 51-46 in 2002, captured the seat for the Republicans in 2004, defeating Hill by half a point. 512 Likely Voters; MOE +/- 4.4 percent

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow continues to lead Republican Mike Bouchard by double digits, according to a poll released Thursday. Forty-eight percent of the 600 likely voters polled Tuesday and Wednesday said they would vote for Stabenow, while 35 percent backed Bouchard, the Oakland County sheriff. Fifteen percent were undecided. About 2 percent said they support one of three other candidates — Leonard Schwartz of the Libertarian Party, David Sole of the Green Party and Dennis FitzSimons of the U.S. Taxpayers Party. The poll was conducted by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for The Detroit News and TV stations...

Rhode Island Senate: Lincoln Chafee (R) 42% Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 51% Undecided 7%500 Likely Voters, poll taken Oct 6http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/ri/rhode_island_senate_race-17.html Minnesota Senate: Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 56% Mark Kennedy (R) 40% Undecided 4%500 Likely Voters, poll taken Oct 5http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_race-15.html Minnesota Governor: Mike Hatch (DFL) 50% Tim Pawlenty (R) 46% Undecided 4%500 Likely Voters, poll taken Oct 5http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_race-57.html

Cardin leads 54-39 in Maryland McCaskill up 48-45 in Missouri Menendez up 46-43 in New Jersey Whitehosue up 50-39 in Rhode Island Ford up 50-45 in Tennessee Allen up 48-45 in Virginia All polls were of likely voters

Reynolds (R) 45% Davis (D) 50% Undecided 5% 482 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%

It's a competitive race for Connecticut's 5th Congressional District. Or is it? U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson is facing her toughest re-election battle in a decade. Or is she? It depends on whose poll you read. A poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee shows Johnson leading Democrat Chris Murphy by 10 points. A separate poll commissioned by Murphy's campaign says the race is a dead heat. Both polls, however, show Murphy, a state senator from Cheshire, closing the gap. In lieu of independent surveys on the race, both candidates claim momentum and are raising their rhetoric going into Nov....

Based on what you know now, do you approve, or do you disapprove, of the job New York congressman Tom Reynolds has done in response to contact between congressmen and teenage pages? Approve 20% Disapprove 66% Not Sure 14 500 Adults, +/- 4.2% MOE Partisan breakdown: 41% Republican29% Democrat23% Independent

1. If the election for United States Senator was held today, whom would you support Robert Menendez, the Democrat or Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican? Tom Kean, Jr. 46% Robert Menendez 41% Undecided 13% 800 likely voters, September 29th-October 1st. MOE +/- 3%.

With a widely quoted, non-partisan newsletter downgrading his chances to retain his seat in Congress and new independent poll showing him behind by 8.5 points, Don Sherwood plans to bring in Republican leaders, including President Bush, to raise money for him this month, a local party leader said Monday. House Majority Leader John Boehner of Ohio will appear this evening at a $25-per-head fundraiser at the Montdale Country Club in Lackawanna County. And House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois is scheduled to make a similar appearance on Oct. 18 at the Ramada Plaza Hotel in Clarks Summit, according to Lackawanna...

An Advocate/Greenwich Time poll shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, has a 4 percent lead over Democratic challenger Diane Farrell among likely voters in the hotly contested 4th Congressional District race. The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell. Sixteen percent of likely voters polled in the 17 municipalities that comprise lower Fairfield County's 4th district said they remain undecided.

http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16.pdf http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16b.pdf Majority Watch asked the question in two different ways. The first link is a sample of 1001 likely voters who were asked simply if they would vote for Foley, the Republican, or Mahoney, the Democrat. Among likely voters there Mahoney led by 7 points, 50-43. Among certain voters (795), Mahoney led by 10 points, 52-42. This question reflects how the ballot will look. The second poll was taken of 1003 likely voters. Among them Mahoney led by only 3 points over Foley. Among certain voters (813 total), Mahoney led by one. The question asked in this poll was:...

RCP leaked the numbers Allen (R) 49% Webb (D) 43% Undecided 4% 500 Likely Voters

RCP leaked the numbers: Ford (D) 48% Corker (R) 43% Undecided 4% 500 Likely Voters

Republican incumbent Heather Wilson and Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid are running dead even in a race for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District seat, a new Journal Poll found. The war in Iraq appears to be weighing on the nationally watched contest that could help decide the balance of power in Congress: 59 percent of the registered likely voters polled said the candidates' positions on Iraq are "very important" factors in how they will vote. Wilson has defended the war and backed President Bush, while Madrid has criticized Wilson's position. "The mood of the state and the nation regarding Iraq is...

WASHINGTON — Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed. In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent. In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent. In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent. Democrats...

It appears the ethics investigation targeting New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez is hurting his chances to return to Washington. A new WNBC/Marist poll released on Friday shows that, if this were Election Day, Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. would defeat Menendez 42 percent to 37 percent. This is a big change from two polls taken earlier this week, where likely voters were polled, and Menendez was slightly ahead. More than half of those polled in this survey were aware of Menendez's recent troubles. The federal government is investigating his leasing of a building he owned to a non-profit agency who also...

NEW YORK - Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb are tied in the latest MSNBC/McClatchy poll conducted by Mason-Dixon. Each candidate received the support of 43 percent of likely voters in Virginia with 2 percent supporting a third candidate and 12 percent undecided. The results represent a rapid change in support for Allen, who was once not only thought to be a safe bet for re-election but perhaps a candidate for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. If Allen were to lose, the chances of Democrats gaining control of the senate would be increased. The Democrats need...

Wilson (D) 54% Blasdel (R) 41% Undecided 5% 516 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.4%

Northup (R) 50% Yarmuth (D) 44% Mancini (L) 2% Parker (C) 1% Undecided 3% 529 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.3%

Allen (R) 50% Webb (D) 44% Others 3% Undecided 3% 612 Likely Voters, +/- 4% MOE Detailed crosstabs available at the link. 39% GOP, 37% Dem, 23% Ind was the sample.

Democrat Take-Away In Colorado State House: In an election for Governor of Colorado today, 9/28/06, Democrat Bill Ritter defeats Republican Bob Beauprez 55% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KUSA-TV Denver. The election is in 40 days, on 11/7/06. Since an identical SurveyUSA KUSA-TV poll 6 weeks ago, Ritter has gained 5 points and Beauprez has lost 2 points. Ritter's lead has grown from 10 to 17 points. Ritter leads by 29 points among women and by 6 points among men. Ritter gets 89% of Democrat votes. Beauprez gets 74% of Republican votes. 20% of Republicans...

AL Statehouse Safe for GOP Incumbent:In an election for Governor of Alabama today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Bob Riley defeats Democratic challenger Lucy Baxley 54% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WKRG-TV Mobile. The election is in 40 days, on 11/7/06. The contest is stable. In an identical SurveyUSA WKRG-TV poll 2 months ago, Riley led by 14; today he leads by 16. Riley leads by 29 points among men and by 4 points among women, a 25-point gender gap. Riley gets 85% of Republican votes. Baxley gets 75% of Democrat votes. Riley leads 2:1 among Independents....

Pawlenty, Hatch Tied in MN : In an election for Governor of Minnesota today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty and DFL challenger Mike Hatch tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. 40 days to the 11/7/06 election, it's Pawlenty 45%, Hatch 44%. Other candidates get 9% of the vote. Pawlenty leads by 16 points among men and trails by 12 points among women, a 28-point "gender gap." Republicans pick Pawlenty 15:1. Democrats pick Hatch 8:1. Independents prefer Hatch by 4 points. The most affluent voters pick Pawlenty by 14 points. The...

Republican Reynolds Faces Strong Challenge in NY26 Rematch:In an election in New York's 26th Congressional District today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds and Democratic challenger Jack Davis are in a fierce fight, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. 40 days to the 11/7/06 election, Reynolds gets 45%. Davis gets 43%. Green Party candidate Christine Murphy gets 8%. This contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%. Reynolds gets 62% of Republican votes. Davis gets 64% of Democrat votes. 31% of Republicans,...

WASHINGTON - New Jersey's Senate candidates remained locked in a tie, according to a poll released Thursday that also showed confusion about the candidates among state voters. Among 404 likely voters, 45 percent preferred Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez while 44 percent backed Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., according to the Rutgers-Eagleton poll. The error margin was plus or minus 5 percent. Among 660 registered voters, 42 percent backed Kean while 40 percent chose Menendez. This survey had an error margin of 4 percent. The survey of both likely and registered voters was conducted Sept. 24-26. The poll showed there was...

The latest Keystone Poll finds incumbent Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach locked in a tight battle for re-election with challenger Democrat Lois Murphy. The poll of 431-registered voters conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College finds Gerlach with a 45-to-38 percent edge. When narrowed to likely voters, Gerlach's advantage is down to 44-to-41 percent. Gerlach scored a two point win over Murphy in 2004. Poll respondents list the war in Iraq, the war on terror and healthcare as the top issues. The sixth district covers portions of Berks, Montgomery and Chester counties.