Keyword: 2012polls

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  • Survey of Polls 10/2 Romney increasing lead

    10/02/2012 2:07:13 PM PDT · by Leto · 12 replies
    Rebalanced Polls ^ | 10/2/2012 | jb williker
    Party ID and the weighting of poll samples has been a big topic of discussion in the blogs and even in the some of the old media recently. It is a good thing to shine light on the shoddy and indefensible polling practices, but the light has to get even brighter before it will cause a shift with the pollsters to become more than another front in the election campaign. They need to be systematically held up to ridicule when they engage in practices that cannot stand up to intellectual scrutiny. There should be something in polling akin to what...
  • Poll: Plurality say polls biased for Obama

    10/02/2012 1:35:53 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 10 replies
    The Hill ^ | 10/02/2012 | Justin Sink
    A plurality of Americans and more than seven in 10 Republicans say pollsters are intentionally skewing results to benefit President Obama, according to a new poll released Tuesday. Some 42 percent of voters surveyed by Daily Kos and SEIU believe pollsters are manipulating their sample sizes to benefit the incumbent president, while 40 percent do not. An additional 18 percent said they were not sure. That's evidence that Republican claims that Democrats and minority voters are being oversampled in national polls could be resonating — and potentially undermining the momentum of the president's early lead. Some Republicans — most prominently...
  • Obama Leads By 4 Points in Quinnipiac Poll With 24% GOP Sample

    10/02/2012 9:46:40 AM PDT · by Yashcheritsiy · 41 replies
    Jammie Wearing Fool ^ | 02 Oct 2012
    The media is gushing this morning over the latest Quinnipiac poll that allegedly shows the failed president with an 18-point lead among women. Women voters give President Obama a four-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 49% to 45% among likely voters, thanks largely to a 56%-38% lead among women. Voters also believe — overwhelmingly — that Obama will win the upcoming set of three debates, Quinnipiac reports, by a margin of 54%-28%. Obama and Romney have their first face-to-face meeting tomorrow night in Denver. Some good news...
  • Could the Wilder Effect be the Explanation Behind Obama's Surge in the Polls?

    10/02/2012 9:12:17 AM PDT · by alan8228 · 15 replies
    Moore Common Sense ^ | 10/2/12 | Alan Moore
    I have been absolutely baffled at the recent poll numbers putting an unpopular president ahead of Mitt Romney. The economy is terrible, no majority supports virtually any of the policies passed by this Administration, and there is no sign of improvement - yet Barack Obama still leads in most polls. So what gives? There could be many explanations. Mitt Romney could be to blame. He has been criticized of running a sub-par campaign even though his fundraising (the true test of organizational strength) has at times eclipsed the incumbent president. Polls are rarely seen by pundits and casual observers alike...
  • The media are massively biased towards Obama. The real problem is obsession with opinion polls

    10/02/2012 6:01:18 AM PDT · by Evil Slayer · 21 replies
    Telegraph [UK] ^ | 10/2/12 | Tim Stanley
    The Republicans aren’t worried about Romney performing well in Wednesday’s debate. They're worried about how the mainstream media will choose to report it. The bias has got so bad that Barack Obama could come on drunk in a peephole bra and many journalists would still label it a triumph (“A historic performance” – Chris Matthews). Incredibly, some journalists are reporting an Obama victory before the debates have even happened. Perhaps the Prez shouldn't show up at all and just leave Romney to talk policy with an empty chair. MSNBC would call it for the chair ("Never in my lifetime has...
  • Polls Show Voters Split Along Gender Lines

    10/02/2012 7:01:33 AM PDT · by ConservativeStatement · 24 replies
    PBS ^ | October 2, 2012 | Christina Bellantoni and Terence Burlij
    On the eve of the first presidential debate, a pair of new national polls find President Obama and Mitt Romney locked in a close race with support for the two candidates divided sharply along gender lines. The president leads Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in a Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday, buoyed by an 18-point advantage, 56 percent to 38 percent, among women. Romney has a 10-point lead among men, 52 percent to 42 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.2 percent.
  • Battle for presidency remains close in new CNN poll (4 MSM polls tighten up)

    10/02/2012 12:44:59 AM PDT · by Brad from Tennessee · 18 replies
    CNN Political Ticker ^ | Oct. 1, 2012 | CNN Political Unit
    Washington (CNN) – Two days before the first presidential debate, a new national survey indicates a very close contest between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the race for the White House. ----------------snip------------------------------ Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the CNN survey, which was released Monday, say that if the election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 47% saying they would support Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. The president's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error. Three other national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours also indicate...
  • A Pollster Under Oath

    10/02/2012 6:04:06 AM PDT · by Aria · 11 replies
    Politico ^ | 10/2/2012 | Josh Gerstein
    When a pollster or strategist for a struggling political campaign presents what seems like a sugar-coated view of his candidate's chances, do you ever think: I wish I could give that adviser some truth serum, or maybe put him under oath? Well, truth serum may be pushing it, but the put-him-under-oath part has actually happened. And when a pollster is required to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, under penalty of perjury, what emerges is quite a bit different than what you hear in the waning days of a presidential campaign. In May, the pollster...
  • Is there a Republican landslide coming in November?

    10/02/2012 5:25:25 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 62 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/02/2012 | Keith Edwards
    It would be an election night to remember for Republicans and conservatives if the Romney/Ryan presidential ticket wins in a landslide, but nothing short of shock and awe for Democrats and their liberal media allies based on the latest polls. Quick to sweep the historic Republican election landslide in 2010 and Scott Walker's big victory in Wisconsin's recall election under the rug, Democrats and the liberal media have been treating Obama's dismal record on the economy and foreign policy the same way they treated those elections - like they never happened. Since those elections, Democrats and the liberal media have...
  • Which Polls Count

    10/02/2012 5:21:50 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 8 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/02/2012 | Bruce Walker
    It is very clear that the polls this election year are wildly out of sync. Consider the four polls which were based on several days of surveys ending on September 16. Pew Research had Obama up by 8%, NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama up by 5%, Monmouth/Survey USA had Obama up by 3%, and Rasmussen had Romney up by 2%. These polls had margins of error which were significantly smaller than the differences between the polls. Some of the polls are bad science or worse. Which polls should be trusted, and which should be treated with great suspicion? Some news...
  • New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie

    10/01/2012 11:38:29 PM PDT · by WilliamIII · 30 replies
    NY Times ^ | Oct 2 2012 | Nate Silver
    ...Mitt Romney would probably win such an election, because Republicans will probably control a majority of state delegations in the incoming House of Representatives.
  • Gallup: Americans Say Middle Class Better Off With Obama Than With Romney [Obama 10-Point Lead?]

    10/01/2012 7:31:59 PM PDT · by Steelfish · 76 replies
    WashingtonTimes ^ | October 01, 2012 | David Hill
    Poll: Americans Say Middle Class Better Off With Obama Than With Romney By David Hill - October 1, 2012 More than half of Americans think the middle class would benefit more from a second term for President Obama than the election of Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a poll released Monday. The Gallup poll shows that 53 percent of Americans give Mr. Obama an edge in helping middle-class people, compared with just 43 percent for Mr. Romney. Respondents in the poll also said another Obama term would be better for racial and ethnic minorities, lower-income Americans, women, young adults...
  • Elizabeth Warren’s lead over Scott Brown narrows to 2 points in WBUR poll

    10/01/2012 2:19:13 PM PDT · by Zakeet · 33 replies
    Boston Globe ^ | October 1, 2012 | Noah Bierman
    As Senator Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren prepare for their second debate tonight, a new poll shows Warren leading Brown by 2 percentage points — 46 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided in the hotly contested race. The WBUR/Mass Inc. poll of 504 likely voters taken Sept. 26- Sept. 28 is the seventh of nine surveys taken in September to show Warren, a Democrat and Harvard Law School professor, with a small lead over Brown, a Republican. But the results are well within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. The same polling...
  • Poll: Nelson, Mack tied in Florida Senate race

    10/01/2012 7:03:23 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 38 replies
    Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's once smooth ride toward a third term has hit a snag, says a new poll, which shows the Florida lawmaker locked in a dead heat with Republican challenger Rep. Connie Mack. The results of an independent survey by Gravis Marketing shows each candidate with the support of 43 percent of likely voters, though 14 percent are undecided. The result is contrary to recent surveys, including four separate independent polls taken in September that pegged Mr. Nelson with a 14-point lead.
  • THE PARADE OF BAD POLLS, CONTINUED

    10/01/2012 7:23:15 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Powerline ^ | 10/01/2012 | John Hindraker
    Today the Romney campaign is trumpeting the latest CNN/ORC poll which shows President Obama with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, 50%-47%. The Romney campaign likes this result, apparently, because it represents a significant improvement over the last CNN/ORC poll, which came out three weeks ago. In that survey, CNN/ORC found a six-point Obama lead.I wrote about the earlier poll here, pointing out that it obviously over-sampled Democrats. A reader calculated that, given other data in the survey, the six-point difference was consistent with a breakdown of D-38%, R-26% and I-36%. I wrote that the most significant...
  • NH Poll: Obama opens up 15 point lead

    10/01/2012 5:59:41 PM PDT · by Joe27 · 200 replies
    Reported on RealClearPolitics ^ | October 1st | University of New Hampshire
    "President Barack Obama has opened a lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Independent voters who had been supporting Romney have swung to Obama in recent weeks." ....... "With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 9% say they are undecided."
  • Vote! Every Coffee Cup Counts [7-11 Shows Huge Lead For Obamugabe, Winning Even in Texas]

    10/01/2012 5:46:52 PM PDT · by SoFloFreeper · 41 replies
    7-eleven.com ^ | 10/1/12
    States represented in gray are not participating in 7-Election. States represented with stripes are tied.
  • Tarrance Group/Battleground Poll - Toss-up States R50%/O46%

    10/01/2012 5:39:45 PM PDT · by profit_guy · 23 replies
    See page 69. There are 279 pages of internals here from a very respected pollster.
  • HAHAHAHAHA Washington Post Swing State Poll was 161 People

    10/01/2012 4:25:28 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 21 replies
    I may just poll my comment section and pass that off as a Battleground State poll. The Washington Post explained that rather curious “Swing State” subsection in today’s national poll where Obama had an incredible 11-point lead relative to his national lead of only 2-points: The WaPo-ABC ‘swing state’ poll numbers, explained Monday’s Washington Post-ABC News poll adds to the evidence of an emerging, important dynamic in the presidential contest showing closer parity nationally than in key battleground states, where President Obama has had clear leads.
  • CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied

    10/01/2012 4:43:43 PM PDT · by Justaham · 51 replies
    hotair.com ^ | 10/1/12 | Allahpundit
    In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as...
  • Polls: Obama Maintains Small National Lead

    10/01/2012 5:20:07 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | October 1, 2012 | Guy Benson
    As the presidential debates are set to kick off this week, Barack Obama continues to hold a modest national lead over Mitt Romney.  Here are the top-line numbers among likely voters in three new polls:   Washington Post/ABC News - Obama 49, Romney 47Politico/GWU - Obama 49, Romney 47Rasmussen - Obama 50, Romney 47 (includes leaners) Digging a little deeper, the WaPo/ABC News poll shows a virtually-tied national race, but has Obama up by eleven in the swing states.  This makes little sense.  Obama is expected to clean up in non-swing states with the largest populations: California, New York and...
  • They Want You to Think the Election is Over

    10/01/2012 11:51:32 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies
    Rush Limbaugh.com ^ | October 1, 2012 | Rush Limbaugh
    BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Some shocking news in the Drive-By Media today. The election is over. Mitt Romney has lost. It's all over out there. Actually, that's not the case. The polls today are starting to tighten up exactly as predicted here. Now we're into October. The debate is Wednesday night. Have you noticed what's going on with this? The DNC and Howard Dean and a number of others... Even Obama himself is saying, "Mitt's a much better debater than I am." They're really out there lowering expectations for Obama in the debate on Wednesday night, and he's got a tough...
  • Pat Cadell, Democrat Pollster, Calls Out the Media

    10/01/2012 10:41:58 AM PDT · by moneyrunner · 7 replies
    The Virginian ^ | 10/1/2012 | Moneyrunner
    Patrick Caddell Mainstream media is threatening our country's future I think we’re at the most dangerous time in our political history in terms of the balance of power in the role that the media plays in whether or not we maintain a free democracy or not. You know, when I first started in politics – and for a long time before that – everyone on both sides, Democrats and Republicans, despised the press commonly, because they were SOBs to everybody. Which is exactly what they should be. They were unrelenting. Whatever the biases were, they were essentially equal-opportunity people. That...
  • Skewed Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio shows padded Obama lead

    10/01/2012 10:25:37 AM PDT · by GilGil · 8 replies
    Examiner.com ^ | 10-1-2012 | Dean Chambers
    When the data from the Columbus Dispatch poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan of the registered voters of Ohio, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 37 percent, Democrats at 36 percent and Independents at 27 percent, the results calculate to Obama leading much closer, by a 47.5 percent to 45.7 percent with about three percent undecided. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead...
  • Poll Shows GOP With Enthusiasm Advantage

    10/01/2012 10:34:00 AM PDT · by TomEwall · 20 replies
    RealClearPolitics ^ | October 1, 2012 | Kyle Adams
    Republicans hold a substantial enthusiasm edge over Democrats as President Obama and Mitt Romney prepare to face off in their first head-to-head debate on Wednesday in Denver. According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, 64 percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, while 48 percent of Democrats say the same....
  • Rasmussen: Monday: OCT 1: O: 50% R: 47% (leaners only): Obama -12%

    10/01/2012 6:39:02 AM PDT · by SoftwareEngineer · 144 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/01/2012 | Rasmussen Reports
    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history. These results include “leaners,” people who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Platinum Members can still see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
  • Battleground Poll: Race still tight (O 49 R 47)

    10/01/2012 5:17:43 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 27 replies
    Politico ^ | 10/1/2012 | JAMES HOHMANN |
    The presidential race is tight enough nationally that a strong performance in Wednesday’s debate by Mitt Romney could put him in the lead. A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters shows President Barack Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, a point closer than a week ago and still within the margin of error. Romney now leads by 4 points among independents, up slightly from a week ago. The Republican must overperform with that group to make up for the near monolithic support of African-Americans for Obama, as well as the huge Democratic advantage among Latinos and...
  • Poll finds most think Obama will win first debate

    09/30/2012 7:55:46 PM PDT · by smoothsailing · 62 replies
    Washington Times ^ | 9-30-2012 | By Stephen Dinan and Ben Wolfgang
    September 30, 2012 Poll finds most think Obama will win first debate By Stephen Dinan and Ben Wolfgang DENVER — Mitt Romney has one thing going for him headed into this week’s first presidential debate with President Obama: Voters don’t expect him to do very well. The newest Washington Times/Zogby Poll, released Sunday, found twice as many voters think Mr. Obama will win Wednesday’s kickoff affair as think Mr. Romney will win it — and among self-identified independents, it’s even more pronounced.
  • WE ARE THE 91%: Only 9% of Americans Cooperate with Pollsters

    09/30/2012 7:18:51 PM PDT · by TChad · 66 replies
    PJ Tatler -- PJ Media ^ | September 30, 2012 | Zombie
    One of the most amazing — and significant — statistics of this election season has gone almost completely unnoticed: Only 9% of sampled households gave an answer to pollsters in 2012: It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.
  • I just got push polled

    09/30/2012 4:59:14 PM PDT · by Redcloak · 11 replies
    Myself ^ | 9/30/2012 | Me
    I just got a call from a pollster trying to push me toward supporting Brad Sherman in the Berman/Sherman Celebrity Death Match. I had to suppress my laughter as Sherman was described as a "fiscal conservative" at one point. Most of the questions were of the form: "Do you like Sherman more now that you know that he interfered in the free market on this issue?" I really don't think that they wanted my answers.
  • Ohio - Obama approval 48/49 overall, and 13/65 among undecideds

    09/30/2012 6:39:49 PM PDT · by profit_guy · 36 replies
    Public Policy Polling ^ | September 30, 2012
    It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he's doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks. That doesn't mean those folks will move to Romney en masse because they don't particularly like him either (a 26/37 favorability rating) but it does mean there's potential for the race there to get within tossup range over the final five weeks.
  • Polls: Romney leads Obama 51% to 44% in trust to handling the economy

    09/30/2012 3:06:26 PM PDT · by tobyhill · 23 replies
    the examiner ^ | 9/30/2012 | SAHIT MUJA
    Sahit Muja: Mitt Romney continues to hold a seven-point lead in voter trust over President Obama when it comes to the economy, which by far is the number one voting issue. The candidates remain more closely divided in several other key issues, but voters are shifting towards Romney when it comes to national security. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more when it comes to handling the economy. Forty-four percent (44%) trust the president more. Where did Obama's "Hope and Change" go? President Obama claims that government can't be fixed...
  • Absentee ballot data not looking good for Democrats

    09/30/2012 3:00:06 PM PDT · by NYer · 10 replies
    Third Base Politics ^ | September 29, 2012
    One of the keys to Barack Obama's victory in Ohio in 2008 was the early voting game. Ohio Democrats tapped into the enthusiasm advantage they had and got their voters to vote early in overwhelming numbers. On election day itself, John McCain actually won. But Obama had such a large lead with votes already banked, that he won Ohio and put the nail in McCain's coffin. We have analyzed some polls this year that used ridiculous samples with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 8 points or more. For example, a recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll used a Dem +10 sample, and the latest...
  • Is polling science, art or witchcraft?

    09/30/2012 2:23:53 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 16 replies
    Hotair ^ | 09/30/2012 | Jazz Shaw
    One of the stories I've been following here at good ole' Hot Gas this month has been Allahpundit's ponderings on precisely what value --- if any --- the polls have in gauging the temperature of the electorate. (Here and here this week.) I've not only read AP's questions and coverage, but many of your responses on the subject, and I've got to be honest here ... I was still completely confused on a couple of fundamental points.One of the first has to do with a subject which the current Oval Office occupant likes to trumpet... arithmetic. (Or, as Joe Biden...
  • Gallup Daily Tracker Approval: 46A (-2), 46D (-1)

    09/30/2012 10:38:18 AM PDT · by tatown · 48 replies
    Gallup ^ | 9/30/12 | Gallup
    46A-46D among adults
  • Election Polling: Why So Much Variation in the Polls? (Pt. 1)

    09/30/2012 7:45:19 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 17 replies
    Christian Post ^ | 09/30/2012 | By Napp Nazworth
    Editor's Note: With the many complaints over election polls in recent weeks, The Christian Post spoke with Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, to better understand election polling. Part one of this series will look at why election polls vary. Part two will address the issue of whether the polls are oversampling Democrats. The previous seven polls for the presidential race at RealClearPolitics.com ranges from a seven percentage point advantage for Obama (National Journal) to a one percentage point advantage for Obama (Associated Press). With a little more than a month to go until the election,...
  • Intrade Odds 79.0 Obama 20.6 Romney

    09/28/2012 11:24:51 AM PDT · by stocksthatgoup · 117 replies
    Intrade ^ | Current | Intrade
    Obama 79 Romney 21
  • Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 30 September 2012

    09/30/2012 5:25:52 AM PDT · by Alas Babylon! · 181 replies
    Various driveby media television networks ^ | 30 September 2012 | Various Self-Serving Politicians and Big Media Screaming Faces
    The Talk Shows September 30th, 2012 Guests to be interviewed today on major television talk shows: FOX NEWS SUNDAY (Fox Network): Republican vice presidential candidate Paul RyanMEET THE PRESS (NBC): Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J.; White House adviser David Plouffe; former Gov. Ed Rendell, D-Pa. FACE THE NATION (CBS): Christie; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.THIS WEEK (ABC): Christie; Plouffe; former Govs. Haley Barbour, R-Miss., and Howard Dean, D-Vt. STATE OF THE UNION (CNN): Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Roy Blunt, R-Mo.; Gov. Martin O'Malley, D-Md.; David Axelrod, adviser to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign.
  • Rasmussen: SWING STATE: Sunday 09/30: O:48% R:44%: Leaners: O:50% R:45%

    09/30/2012 7:31:31 AM PDT · by SoftwareEngineer · 99 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/30/2012 | Rasmussen Reports
    The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now. Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information. In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent...
  • Barone: When it comes to polls, readers beware

    09/30/2012 6:57:26 AM PDT · by SMGFan · 48 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | September 29, 2012
    As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters. First, some points about the limits of polls. Random-sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such...
  • Rasumussen: Sunday 09/30: O:48%: R:46%: Leaners: O:49%: R:47%: Obama -14

    09/30/2012 7:25:18 AM PDT · by SoftwareEngineer · 56 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/30/2012 | Rasmussen Reports
    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history. Four years ago today, Rasmussen Reports tracking showed Obama leading John McCain by a 51% to 45% margin. The numbers barely budged for the rest of the campaign season as Obama enjoyed a comfortable lead and stayed between 50% and 52% every day for the last 40 days. When “leaners” are included, it’s now Obama 49%,...
  • Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide (5/31/12)

    09/29/2012 11:11:15 PM PDT · by smoothsailing · 102 replies
    The Blaze ^ | 5/31/12 | Wayne Allen Root
    <p>A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November. Interesting analysis.</p> <p>Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.</p> <p>I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.</p>
  • Las Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts Obama Will Have a Landslide Loss

    09/30/2012 6:28:14 AM PDT · by F15Eagle · 73 replies
    Lubbock Avalanche Journal ^ | Sunday, September 30, 2012 | Blogs / Mr. Conservative
    Las Vegas Oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root predicted that Barack Obama will suffer a massive loss in the General Election even though the current polls do not show Obama necessarily losing. Root stated, Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again. Root laid out the rationale for his prediction. He does have a history of successful political predictions. Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who...
  • Dispatch Poll: Obama widens lead (in Democrat skewed poll) as balloting starts

    "A new Dispatch Poll shows him trailing President Barack Obama in bellwether Ohio by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. A surge of Democratic support for Obama has transformed the race since the first Dispatch Poll had the two dead-even at 45 percent just before the Republican National Convention in late August".
  • POLL: PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHT IN PENNSYLVANIA

    09/29/2012 7:42:17 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 24 replies
    WorldNetDaily ^ | 09/29/2012
    Two percentage points separate President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a state poll conducted for the Tribune-Review, even though the campaigns largely are ignoring Pennsylvania and concentrating on other battlegrounds. Obama polled 47 percent to Romney’s 45 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent of voters undecided and 44 days until Election Day, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research. The survey of 800 voters, conducted Sept. 18-20, has a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points. The poll showed most voters are disappointed with the country’s direction, evenly split on whether Obama deserves another...
  • James Zogby: Arab American Voters 'Overwhelmingly' Support Obama

    09/27/2012 3:58:21 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 32 replies
    Newsmax ^ | September 27, 2012 | Jim Meyers and Kathleen Walter
    Prominent Middle East expert Dr. James Zogby tells Newsmax that President Obama is polling about 18 percent below his 2008 numbers among Arab-American voters. But those Arab-Americans who are Muslims now “overwhelmingly” support the Democratic candidate compared to four years ago, he adds. Zogby also discloses that Arab-Americans across the board consider jobs and the economy as the most important issue in this year’s elections. Zogby is founder and president of the Arab American Institute, a Washington, D.C.–based organization that serves as a political and policy research arm of the Arab-American community, and author of the book “Arab Voices: What...
  • Chris Wallace Snaps At Right-Wing Host For Criticizing Polls: ‘Obama Is Winning’

    09/28/2012 5:50:08 PM PDT · by Nachum · 119 replies
    Mediaite ^ | 9/28/12 | Andrew Kirell |
    Fox’s Sunday host Chris Wallace is tired of hearing conservatives criticize recent polls that show Mitt Romney trailing President Obama; and he let radio host Mike Gallagher know that today with a fiery scolding. Things initially got tense when Gallagher took issue with Wallace characterizing the Romney campaign as “in trouble.” “Wait a minute,” Gallagher interrupted, “what do you mean ‘Romney’s in trouble’? Where’d you get that from? What, because of the poll manipulation crap?” That set Wallace off. “This criticism of the polls is craziness. I actually did some research on this today, which is more than you’ve done,”...
  • WHAT TO MAKE OF DECLINING DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION?

    09/29/2012 7:46:03 PM PDT · by lasereye · 31 replies
    Powerline ^ | September 29, 2012 | John Hinderaker
    On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats. But is there any evidence of any such trend? Not at all; the evidence is entirely to the contrary. Hugh Hewitt, among others, has been talking about these data: Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four...
  • Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

    09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT · by smoothsailing · 158 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 9-29-2012 | Byron York
    September 29, 2012 Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November Byron York For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.” The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage...
  • Rasmussen Swing State Daily Tracking: 51% Disapprove of Job Obama is Doing

    09/29/2012 5:10:16 AM PDT · by BarnacleCenturion · 15 replies
    rasmussenreports.com ^ | September 28, 2012 | staff
    The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. In the 11 swing states, the president and Mitt Romney are tied with 46% support each. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. The candidates have been tied or in a near tie every day but one for the past three weeks. In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.