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Rick Santorum holds a slight lead heading into the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Santorum leads with 36% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 35%, Ron Paul with 15%, and Newt Gingrich with 8%. Santorum has lost 2 percentage points since a similar survey conducted February 21-22, 2012, while Romney has gained 1 percentage point. Romney now leads Santorum 38% to 37% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 11% and Paul with 9%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 34%, followed by Romney with 30%, Paul with 25%, and Gingrich with 3%. Santorum leads Romney 36% to...

Rick Santorum continues to lead the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Santorum leads with 37% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 32%, Ron Paul with 15%, and Newt Gingrich with 10%. Santorum has gained 4 percentage points since a similar survey conducted February 11-12, 2012, Romney has gained 5 percentage points, and Gingrich has lost 11 percentage points since the last survey. Santorum and Romney are tied with 35% each among self-identified Republicans, followed by Paul with 15% and Gingrich with 13%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 40%, followed by Romney with 27%, Paul with 15%, and...

Friday, January 27, 2012 Poll Watch: American Research Group Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey ARG Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll •Newt Gingrich 32% •Mitt Romney 32% •Ron Paul 12% •Rick Santorum 10% •Undecided 12%

They called it "dozing for dollars." Pilots with the California Air National Guard 144th Fighter Wing based in Fresno had a lucrative arrangement: After their normal day jobs flying F-16 Fighting Falcon warplanes, they often grabbed shifts on alert at full pay. Alert duty is akin to what firefighters do at the station house, waiting for an alarm to sound. Pilots must be available to "scramble" – intercept enemy air attacks, or intervene in another emergency.

MSNBC has brewed up a sponsorship deal with Starbucks that positions the coffee chain as the title sponsor of the daily news program Morning Joe. Per terms of the agreement, the Starbucks brand will be visible at various points in MSNBC’s weekday 6 a.m.-9 a.m. news show, via graphic elements like billboards and banners and on-set placement. The latter portion of the deal is nothing new; co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski are often seen drinking out of Starbucks cups, so much so that many viewers already assumed that MSNBC was compensated for the integration. Appearing on this morning’s.........

I have to wonder if the American Research Group will still have a reputation after this contest is over. Michigan, which I think Romney will win, is going to be the test.I wonder because ARG has been decidedly pro-McCain for the past year. They have detected levels of strength for McCain that no other poll has. Now, it's been all well and good in New Hampshire, where ARG showed McCain winning by 7% when he won by 5%. But, remember Iowa? ARG showed Fred Thompson had bottomed out at 2%, behind Ron Paul, and McCain had surged. Their December 19th...

Anybody who checked Drudge today will have seen that there is a "shock poll" that puts Hillary Clinton 15 points in front of Barack Obama in Iowa. The polling company that produced the poll is ARG, and this is what it had to say about its results: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at...

  Connecticut US Senate If the general election for US Senate were being held today between Ralph Ferrucci, of the Green party, Timothy Knibbs, of the Concerned Citizens party, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Joe Lieberman, of the Connecticut for Lieberman party, and Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, for whom would you vote? (names rotated) 9/19/06 Lamont Lieberman Others Undecided Likely voters 45% 47% 3% 5% Republicans (26%) 15% 66% 8% 11% Democrats (39%) 62% 36% 0% 2% Unaffiliated (35%) 47% 45% 3% 5% 8/21/06 42% 44% 3% 11% Based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely...

August 22, 2006Lieberman and Lamont Tied in ConnecticutJoe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided. Lieberman leads Lamont 57% to 18% among enrolled Republicans and 48% to 38% among unaffiliated (independent) voters. Lamont leads Lieberman 65% to 30% among enrolled Democrats.A total of 56% of likely voters...

Do you favor or oppose the United States Senate passing a resolution censuring President George W. Bush for authorizing wiretaps of Americans within the United States without obtaining court orders? 3/15/06 Favor Oppose Undecided All Adults 46% 44% 10% Voters 48% 43% 9% Republicans (33%) 29% 57% 14% Democrats (37%) 70% 26% 4% Independents (30%) 42% 47% 11% Based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of adults nationwide March 13-15, 2006. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time. Do you favor or oppose the United States House of...

American Research Group, Inc. October 30, 2004 Kerry and Bush Remain Tied John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president among both Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters and likely voters, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 48% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 48% of registered voters and likely voters say they would vote for Kerry, 48% say they...

This is pathetic! Look at these samplings for FL and NH. Bush must be up 6 in both. http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/ http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

Yesterday, in the ‘comments’ section of another article, I noted ARG’s nationwide State Polling results (ARG is American Research Group), and wrote that ARG had ‘cheated’. That was a little bit unfair. ARG worked hard to produce a comprehensive poll for the Presidential Election in all 50 states plus D.C., and showed their demographics as well for each and every state. That is certainly worthy of praise, and attention. However, I would still have to say that ARG’s self-review before publishing, appears to be on a par with CBS News. I found what I can only call errors, unless I...

Thursday, September 23 2004 FLORIDA, ARG, KERRY UP 1PT?: Yesterday I was speaking with a major pollster who has been polling in Florida for over twenty years. He had serious questions about the ARG poll released yesterday showing Kerry ahead one point in the state. ARG's poll was conducted Friday - Monday and this pollster had several problems with those dates. First, he wondered how you could get through to anyone in the panhandle when there was still massive electric and phone outages throughout that entire section of the state. Second, Friday night polling is apparently seriously discouraged in Florida...

American Research Group, Inc. State: Pennsylvania                               Electoral votes: 21                               Sample size: 600 likely voters           Sample dates: Sep 15-19             Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points                                                   Bush Kerry Nader Others Undecided Total...

American Research Group, Inc. State: New Jersey                               Electoral votes: 15                               Sample size: 600 likely voters           Sample dates: Sep 13-16             Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points                                                   Bush Kerry Nader Others Undecided...

How close is the race for president? George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.Kerry needs to defend...

There was a bit of grumbling over ARG's sampling techniques. They seem to have oversampled women quite a bit in this poll. So I went through their numbers and re-did a few key states to see how a normal gender distribution might affect their results. I found that there is a slight difference when you apply a reasonable gender distribution of 51% Women, 49% Men. They were using 55% women, 45% men in several of their states!Here are results from a few selected states using my gender distribution (51-49) in stead of theirs. Frankly, the differences really aren't that severe.Mississippi-...

Help me out here since I seem to be missing something. There has been a fairly big reaction to the ARG poll putting Kerry over Bush by 3 points in a head to head race. However, when I went to the ARG website it appears that this poll was taken from Aug. 30-Sept 1st. If this is true then of what possible importance can it be since it was taken before the Rep convention and before this Dan Blather nonsence. If there is a recent ARG national poll then someone please link me to the thing.

Looking pretty good ... and ARG even skews a little left.

  The American Research Group is now polling the race for president in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Below are the results from the first 20 states. State-by-state details will be available when results from all states are posted. State Bush Kerry Nader Other DK Sep Alaska 57% 30% 5% 3% 5% 9-11 California 41% 52% - 1% 6% 11-13 Colorado 46% 45% 3% 1% 6% 10-13 Hawaii 41% 51% 4% 0% 4% 7-11 Idaho 59% 30% 3% 1% 7% 8-10 Kentucky 57% 39% 1% 0% 4% 8-12 Maine 44% 48% 4% 0% 5% 8-10 Maryland...

A NEW opinion poll released today gives Democratic US presidential contender John Kerry a slight lead over Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The American Research Group poll of 1014 people gave 48 per cent of voter support to Mr Kerry and 46 per cent to Mr Bush. With independent Ralph Nader included in the November 2 vote, Mr Kerry was given 46 per cent, Mr Bush 45 per cent and Mr Nader three per cent. The poll also indicated a growing number of Americans do not approve the president's policies - 48 per cent against and 45 per cent in...

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader. Among registered voters considered likely to vote...

September 2, 2004 Kerry and Bush Remain Tied John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for...

August 20, 2004 Kerry and Bush Tied Among Likely Voters in Michigan John Kerry and George W. Bush are tied among likely voters in Michigan according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 1% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 49% and Bush is at...

August 20, 2004 Kerry and Bush Tied Among Likely Voters in Michigan John Kerry and George W. Bush are tied among likely voters in Michigan according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 1% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 49% and Bush is at...

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided. http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/fl/ John Kerry leads George W. Bush among likely voters in New Hampshire according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49%...

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided. In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4%...

August 2, 2004 Kerry and Bush Remain in Statistical Tie John Kerry and George W. Bush remain in a statistical tie among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 49% say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader. The results presented here are based on 776 completed telephone...

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain in a statistical tie among likely voters in Wisconsin according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 4% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. Without Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry leads Bush 49% to 44%, with 7% of likely voters undecided. These results are based on 600 completed...

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among voters nationwide, with Kerry at 49% and Bush at 45%. With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 47%, Bush is at 44%, and Nader is at 3%. See the results among registered voters from the July 1-3 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot. Bush Job Approval Ratings 7/3/04 Approve Disapprove Undecided Overall 44% 50% 6% Economy 41% 55% 4% George W. Bush's job approval ratings remain unchanged from June. Details from the nationwide survey conducted July 1-3 are available at The National Economy.

June 24, 2004 Kerry Maintains Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Ohio John Kerry continues to lead George W. Bush among likely voters in Ohio according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. These results are unchanged from May. In a race between just Kerry and Bush, Kerry...

Some of you have been following my constant embattlement with polls. Well, I found a website with state polling data from the 2000 election and compared them results from the election (The site only had data starting with "H", as the page with A-G states was lost from the server apparently) and here are a few observations. ARG - American Research Group was by far one of the worst polling services that covered many of the states. They consistantly and constantly slanted towards Gore, even having Tennessee in the Gore column by 5 percentage points in a poll conducted just...

John Kerry has increased his lead over George W. Bush among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 50% say they would vote for Kerry and 43% say they would vote for Bush. In February, Kerry was at 48% and Bush was at 46%. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 48% say they would vote for Kerry, 42% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader. The results presented here are based on 770 completed telephone...