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How To Prepare Your Portfolio For A Spike In Food Prices Kapitall Aug. 24, 2011, 5:48 AM Corn is in nearly every US food product in some form, from Twinkies to animal feed, making corn production the single largest driver of food prices. Here's some bad news: this year's corn yield is less than expected, meaning elevated food prices for the next year. Fabulous! On top of the already stunted economy, high unemployment, outrageous government debt, we can count higher food prices among the catalysts for more food stamps, government subsidies, lower consumer spending, and a greater lean towards more...

July Durable Goods Beat Expectations At 4% Mamta Badkar Aug. 24, 2011, 8:30 AM Headline: Headline figures came in up 4% versus expectations of 2%. Ex-transportation figures are up 0.7% in July. Ex-defense durable goods are up 4.8%. But there's bad news too. Core capital goods orders which exclude defense and transport were down 1.5% versus expectations for 0.5% gains. U.S. futures which were sharply lower have moved higher on the news, but remain in negative territory ahead of the market open. Expectations: 2% month-over-month increase in new orders. 0.1% year-over-year increase in new orders. Ex-transport, durable goods orders are...

U.S. Futures Gain Ahead Of Open Mamta Badkar Aug. 22, 2011, 8:27 AM U.S. markets indicate a higher open on expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce another round of quantitative easing. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 134 points to 10954, the S&P 500 rose 16 points to 1140, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 33.80 points to 2074.80. Moving closer to the opening bell, the Dow is lower than the 148 it had added earlier this morning. Here's the volatility in the Dow over the past two weeks:

THE DANGER IS FROM THE SPENDING CUTS, NOT THE DOWNGRADE 29 July 2011 By Warren Mosler The headlines are all about the risks of default or a too small deficit reduction package causing a downgrade of US debt. And while markets react to those issues, they all miss the point. The consequences of a downgrade to US govt debt are minor at best. Note that when Japan was downgraded below Botswana, with a debt/GDP ratio nearly triple that of the US, interest rates remained the lowest in the world. The real risk comes from the spending cuts. No debt ceiling...

Another Big Wrinkle Today: An Ugly GDP Report Joe Weisenthal Jul. 29, 2011, 4:50 AM Just in case today wasn't going to be hectic enough, what with everyone sorting out where we are on the debt ceiling, there's going to be another interesting wrinkle: Advance GDP for Q2. The official estimate is still at 1.9%, but there's definitely a louder and louder "whisper" number that's way lower than that, perhaps even lower than 1%?When in does come in bad, expect to hear it invoked by politicians all around, eager to score points in the debt ceiling fight. And even on...

L.A. Ports Already Forecast An Awesome Christmas Season Vincent Fernando, CFA Aug. 9, 2010, 6:14 AM Los Angeles port volumes continue to rebound, and the ports themselves believe that this could signal a strong holiday season in the U.S. this year, or at least stronger one than last year's: Hellenic Shipping News: “I think we’re seeing the imported goods and the containers like what you see here obviously filled with holiday items and we’re seeing those in larger numbers,” said Richard Steinke, the executive director of the Port of Long Beach, which sits on a complex alongside the Port of...

Guess What: BP's "Bottom Kill" Solution Might Just Cause More Oil To Spill Joe Weisenthal Jun. 16, 2010, 6:41 AM For those of you assuming that the ultimate solution will come from a relief well, Der Spiegel throws some cold water on "Bottom Kill," and why it's no sure thing. First, one big risk is simply the fact that you're creating a new hole: "More oil could leak than before, because the field is being drilled into again," says Fred Aminzadeh, a geophysicist at the University of Southern California. Ira Leifer, a geochemist at the University of California in Santa...

Stocks Fall In Another Big Heartbreaker For The Bulls: Here's What You Need To Know Joe Weisenthal Jun. 9, 2010, 3:59 PM Again! After being up solidly all day, the market blew it. First, the scoreboard. Dow: -28 S&P 500: -5.5 NASDAQ: -11 And now, the keys stories: Again, the market collapse in the final hours of the day is a major heartbreaker. It's looking more and more like we're in a bear market, rather than just a correction. Big oil was absolutely slaughtered, with BP falling a stunning 15%. Transocean was up about 7%. Various theories swirled as to...

The Other Scary Jobs Chart: The Mass Exodus From The Workforce Joe Weisenthal Jun. 5, 2010, 9:13 AM Friday's jobs report was pretty rough, but actually the unemployment rate dipped to 9.7%. That's because, despite the lack of private sector hiring, a large swath of jobseekers decided to, for whatever reason, quit the workforce. As Annaly Capital Management (via PragCap) notes, the civilian labor force fell by 322,000 May. The spike up in the total flow from those "unemployed" to "not in the labor force" follow what looked like a couple of months worth of the reverse: people moving on...

Two Reasons Why You Shouldn't Bank On A Private Sector Jobs Rebound Clemens Kownatzki Jun. 5, 2010, 8:16 AM The US employment report was the most anticipated economic info for the week. Non-farm payrolls rose by 431,000 in May, lower than the consensus forecast for a 540,000 rise, but at least the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector employment changed little (+41,000). Manufacturing, temporary...

The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A 'Virtual Certainty' Vincent Fernando, CFA May 27, 2010, 3:18 AM The stock of U.S. money as measured by 'M3' money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. This 9.6% annualized contraction is unprecedented in the post-Depression era, and shows how, in this sense, America isn't printing more money. There are actually less dollars in the system since U.S. money supply is crashing, even well into the recent economic recovery. The positive take on this is that we...

Consumer Confidence Way Higher Than Expected Vincent Fernando, CFA May 25, 2010, 10:00 AM Consumer confidence came in at 63.3 vs. 58.3 expected. Conference Board: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, its third consecutive monthly gain. The Index now stands at 63.3 (1985=100), up from 57.7 in April. The Present Situation Index increased to 30.2 from 28.2. The Expectations Index improved to 85.3 from 77.4 last month. Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence posted its third consecutive monthly gain, and although still weak by historical levels, appears to be gaining...

Eurozone Crisis At Point Of Maximum Danger, Great Depression II? Economics / Euro-Zone May 19, 2010 - 08:10 AM By: Mike Whitney Debt woes in Greece have sent bond yields soaring and increased the prospect of sovereign default. A restructuring of Greek debt will deal a blow to lenders in Germany and France that are insufficiently capitalized to manage the losses. Finance ministers, EU heads-of-state and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded forcefully to try to avert another banking meltdown that could plunge the world back into recession. They have created a nearly-$1 trillion European Stabilization Fund (ESF) to...

Stocks End Down Hard AGAIN: Here's What You Need To Know Joe Weisenthal May. 19, 2010, 4:00 PM At one point today, markets were off nearly 2%, so the action was not horrible for bulls. Perhaps the bleeding is stopped momentarily.. But first, the scoreboard: Dow: -66.65 S&P: -5.8 NASDAQ: -18.9 And now, the key stories: * For the moment, markets have stopped freaking out about Europe and Germany's boneheaded move to go after short-sellers. The euro has staged an impressive rally. The euro is now nearly at $1.24, which seems high, but remember, $1.25 was thought to be unthinkably...

Europe Closes And Selling Gets Worse: Dow Falls 160, NASDAQ Down 1.8% Joe Weisenthal May. 19, 2010, 11:38 AM The bulls staged another run and briefly managed to get the Dow down just 50, but they can't sustain it. What's going on? You know the drill: EURO EURO EURO EURO EURO EURO EURO, GERMANY, EURO. All pretty straightforward stuff. Meanwhile, European markets fell hard, lead to the downside by France's CAC-40. One interesting stock to watch: Goldman Sachs (GS) had been higher throughout the morning, but is now slightly in the red.[snip]

This Chart Is Proof That Richard Russell's Crash Prediction Will Come True Joe Weisenthal May. 18, 2010, 1:26 PM Earlier we brought you the latest alarming comments from noted Dow Theorist Richard Russell, who is advising people to sell everything they can, ahead of a radical change in America. You think that's hyperbolic and ridiculous? Well consider this, from a reader, who writes: I've been watching the charts and listening to Bob Prechter and we are in a wave C down cycle that will be very swift and steep. Now are you convinced?[snip]

Selling In Stocks And Euro Intensifies, As Rumors Of German Government Short-Selling Ban Spreads Joe Weisenthal May. 18, 2010, 1:16 PM Update: the government has confirmed a naked short selling bond in certain securities. The euro has fallen below $1.23. Original post: There are headlines coming out of Germany that the government may institute a short-selling ban. Earlier, ZeroHedge cited a Reuters article saying that a short-selling ban would apply to stocks and bonds. But according to ForexLive, the report indicates that it's a naked short-selling ban. There's also chatter that Merkel may push for a transaction tax at the...

Martin Armstrong: The "Flash Crash" Was A WATERFALL Event Like The One That Preceded The Fall Of Rome Joe Weisenthal May. 18, 2010, 10:07 AM The famous market philosopher Martin Armstrong, who is currently in prison in Ft. Dix New Jersey, has turned his attention to the "Flash Crash" of May 6, which he sees as a profound event. He describes the event as a waterfall -- the opposite of a blowoff bubble top -- that presages the start of a profound shift in the world economy. He calls the "fat finger" or glitch theories nonsense, saying it's all about...

Dow Theorist: Sell Everything Liquid, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year Joe Weisenthal May. 18, 2010, 8:57 AM Image: US Army WHOA! Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note: Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country....

Stock Market Historic Crash, A Warning Shot Across Our Collective Bow Stock-Markets / Financial Crash May 17, 2010 - 11:41 AM By: Captain Hook That’s the way you should view yesterday’s historic crash, witnessing the largest single day point swings in history. You should view it as a warning shot across your bow, because most market participants will stay in the stock market until it’s too late. Then, when the real panic starts, a lasting panic with no recovery like yesterday, they will freeze like deer in the headlights, and it will be all over but the crying as stocks...