Keyword: barone

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  • Is this the political map of the future?

    11/13/2014 1:39:51 PM PST · by right-wing agnostic · 65 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | November 13, 2014 | Michael Barone
    If you’re a political junkie — or at least if you’re a conservative political junkie — you’ve probably seen the map. It’s a map of the United States showing the congressional districts won by Republicans in red and those won by Democrats in blue. It looks almost entirely red, except for some pinpoints of blue in major metropolitan areas and a few blue blotches here and there — in Minnesota, northern New Mexico and Arizona, western New England, along the Pacific Coast. Of course it’s misleading. Congressional districts are of basically equal population, and Democrats tend to roll up big...
  • Two Hidden Factors in the 2014 Campaign

    11/11/2014 9:15:33 AM PST · by Kaslin · 33 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | November 11, 2014 | Michael Barone
    Looking back on the 2014 election cycle, I see two largely unnoticed turning points that worked against Democrats and in Republicans' favor. The first came in response to the October 2013 government shutdown. This was blamed, as shutdowns usually are, on Republicans, partly because of their skepticism about big government, and partly because media professionals tend to fault the GOP in any partisan fight. The shutdown occurred because about 40 Republican House members refused to support a continuing resolution funding the government without a proviso defunding Obamacare. Texas freshman Sen. Ted Cruz had been barnstorming the country arguing that this...
  • It's Not Unnatural for Republicans to Want the President Protected

    10/07/2014 5:15:45 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 13 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | October 7, 2014 | Michael Barone
    "Even opposition lawmakers who have spent the last six years fighting his every initiative have expressed deep worry for his security." So wrote the New York Times' Peter Baker in the lead paragraph of a story on the congressional hearing on the Secret Service. Baker is an excellent reporter and a good writer, and so it's useful to consider the implications of his framing of the story. And let's leave aside his hyperbole about Republicans opposition "every initiative" -- some presidential initiatives are uncontroversial and widely supported -- and look at that word "even." Contained within that word and in...
  • Michael Barone: The Coming GOP Wave

    10/03/2014 7:19:41 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 31 replies
    National Review ^ | 10/03/2014 | Michael Barone
    Republicans seem to be pulling away in the race to win a majority in the U.S. Senate. At least this week. In mid-September, several polls seemed to be going the other way. The well-informed Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza wrote that for the first time in this election cycle, odds favored the Democrats keeping their majority. Two weeks later, he was singing another tune. Analysts at the Post, the New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight, in addition to psephologists Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato, all agreed. What may have happened is this: Over the summer, Democrats used their money...
  • It looks like a GOP wave; the question is how far it goes

    10/02/2014 8:08:05 AM PDT · by GonzoII · 36 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | October 2, 2014 | 5:00 am | Michael Barone
    What may have happened is this: Over the summer Democrats used their money advantage to savage Republican opponents. When spending got equalized in September, Republicans’ numbers rose. So Republicans retain big leads to pick up three open seats in states carried by Mitt Romney —West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota. Republican nominees have moved ahead of three Democratic incumbents in Romney states (Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana) and in two target states carried by President Obama (Colorado and Iowa).Only in North Carolina, which Romney narrowly carried, has the Republican not yet overtaken the incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan — and her...
  • The president who is uninterested in other people

    09/01/2014 11:10:24 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 38 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | August 31, 2014 | Michael Barone
    Some time ago I contrasted the reaction a conservative would get if he were in the same room with the two most consequential politicians of the 1990s, Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. If you were in a room with Bill Clinton, he would discover the one issue out of 100 on which you agreed; he would probe you with questions, comments, suggestions; and he would tell you that you enabled him to understand it far better than he ever had before. If you were in a room with Rudy Giuliani, he would discover the one issue out of 100 on...
  • Three Hundred Years Later, Americans Owe a Debt to King George I

    08/12/2014 5:36:56 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 37 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 12, 2014 | Michael Barone
    Three hundred years ago, on Aug. 1, 1714, by the Julian calendar (Aug. 12 by the Gregorian calendar we use now), Queen Anne died. She was just 49 years old, but was weakened by obesity, gout and the effects of 17 pregnancies, from which only one child lived beyond infancy -- William, Duke of Gloucester, who died of smallpox at age 11 in 1700. That posed a constitutional crisis in an era when monarchs actively led governments and religion was inextricably intertwined with government. Who would succeed the Protestant Anne as king of England, Scotland and Ireland? Just 25 years...
  • Barone: Political fallout from border crisis growing

    07/14/2014 1:03:43 PM PDT · by cotton1706 · 37 replies
    americanthinker.com ^ | 7/14/14 | Rick Moran
    Ace political analyst Michael Barone scans the political landscape and thinks that the fallout from the border crisis will be severe and will hit Democrats especially hard. The picture of thousands of illegal youngsters streaming over the border is disquieting and seems likely to hurt the president's standing with voters--even despite his refusal to submit to a “photo-op” on the border. Democrats are trying to blame the situation on House Republicans' refusal to pass comprehensive immigration legislation. That seems pretty lame: There's nothing in the bill the Senate passed in June 2013 that addressed this particular situation. As this article...
  • Don't Write Those Tea Party Obituaries Just Yet

    03/04/2014 5:38:24 AM PST · by Kaslin · 20 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | March 4, 2014 | Michael Barone
    February marked the fifth anniversary of the reemergence of the label "Tea Party" in American politics. It was in February 2009 that Rick Santelli delivered his famous rant on CNBC, and a few days later, a group calling itself the Tea Party Patriots was organized. Today the conventional wisdom is that the Tea Party movement is exhausted. Polls are cited showing that only one quarter of Americans express approval of the Tea Party. Democrats run ads claiming their opponents are Tea Party radicals. Many Republicans argue that Tea Party candidates have lost winnable Senate races, cementing the Democratic majority there...
  • Senate race poll numbers look good for Republicans (Michael Barone)

    02/09/2014 6:12:37 PM PST · by neverdem · 56 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | January 31, 2014 | Michael Barone
    The balance in the 2014 race for a majority in the Senate seems to have shifted -- toward the Republicans. Two polls released today showed Louisiana Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger John Cassidy and New Hampshire Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen running even with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Here is how Republicans are faring in seven seats that are up in states carried by Mitt Romney. I've shown the Real Clear Politics averages or, when that wasn't available, an average from the two most recent public polls (an asterisk means there wasn't an RCP average available). Following that...
  • Millennials Unhappy With Obama's War on the Young

    01/21/2014 4:40:04 AM PST · by Kaslin · 21 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | January 21, 2014 | Michael Barone
    What do young Americans want? Something different from what they've been getting from the president they voted for by such large margins. Evidence comes in from various polls. Voters under 30, the millennial generation, produced numbers for Barack Obama 13 percentage points above the national average in 2008 and 9 points above in 2012. But in recent polls, Obama approval among those under 30 has been higher than the national average by only 1 percentage point (Quinnipiac), 2 points (ABC/Washington Post) and 3 points (YouGov/Economist). Those differences are statistically significant. And that's politically significant, since a higher percentage of millennials...
  • Some reflections on the Virginia and New Jersey elections

    11/06/2013 6:37:47 AM PST · by Qbert · 27 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | NOVEMBER 6, 2013 | MICHAEL BARONE
    1. The Obamacare rollout fiasco and Obama's lies hurt Democrats. You only have to look at Democrat Terry McAuliffe's narrow 48 percent to 46 percent margin in Virginia to see that. McAuliffe outspent Republican Ken Cuccinelli by a wide margin (as much as 10-to-1, some bloggers suggested) and was leading 46 percent to 37 percent in the last days of October in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls on Oct. 31. In Virginia, the state that voted closest to the national average in the last two presidential elections, McAuliffe ended up with 48 percent, 3 percentage points behind...
  • Audacious wildcatters trigger fracking revolution

    11/03/2013 1:00:21 PM PST · by Signalman · 6 replies
    Wash. Examiner ^ | 11/1/2013 | Michael Barone
    Capitalism, said economist Joseph Schumpeter seven decades ago, is a process of creative destruction. New inventions, new processes, new methods of organization lead to the creation of new profitable and efficient businesses and to the destruction of old ones unable to compete. There are few accounts of the creative side of Schumpeter’s phrase more vivid than Fracking: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters, a new book by Wall Street Journal writer Gregory Zuckerman. For years politicians, policy experts and corporate executives have tried to reshape American energy policy and development. They have operated on a series of...
  • Americans keep moving to states with low taxes and housing costs

    10/31/2013 12:03:58 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 44 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | October 30, 2013 | MICHAEL BARONE
    Critics charge that Texas’s growth depends on the oil and gas industries and is weighted toward low-wage jobs. But in fact, Texas’s low-tax, light-regulation policies have produced a highly diversified economy that from 2002 to 2011 created nearly one-third of the nation’s highest-paying jobs. In those years, its number of upper- and middle-income jobs grew 24 percent.Where are Americans moving, and why? Timothy Noah, writing in the Washington Monthly, professes to be puzzled. He points out that people have been moving out of states with high per capita incomes -- Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland -- to states with lower...
  • Americans keep moving to states with low taxes and housing costs

    10/31/2013 7:44:02 AM PDT · by amnestynone · 20 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 10/30/2013 | Michael Barone
    Where are Americans moving, and why? Timothy Noah, writing in the Washington Monthly, professes to be puzzled. He points out that people have been moving out of states with high per capita incomes -- Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland -- to states with lower income levels. “Why are Americans by and large moving away from economic opportunity rather than toward it?” he asks. Actually, it's not puzzling at all. The movement from high-tax, high-housing-cost states to low-tax, low-housing-cost states has been going on for more than 40 years, as I note in my new book Shaping Our Nation: How Surges...
  • A software installer's view on the Obamacare IT mess (Barone)

    10/22/2013 3:35:18 PM PDT · by RoosterRedux · 67 replies
    washingtonexaminer.com ^ | 10/20/2013 | Michael Barone
    A reader who says that he has done large software installations for one of the big accounting firms wrote the following in an email. It seems to validate the concerns discussed in my Washington Examiner column on the Obamacare IT mess. 1. The integration aspect is most difficult. In this case, the integration of various Federal Systems to determine subsidies is proving a daunting task. You are dealing with legacy systems that don’t integrate very well. Also the integration with the insurers consisting of sending an insurance application to the insurance company, a much easier task, was also screwed up....
  • Why Opponents Won’t Accept Obamacare: History tells us why it won't happen

    10/01/2013 6:56:05 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    National Review ^ | 10/01/2013 | Michael Barone
    Many Democrats are genuinely puzzled about Republicans’ continuing opposition to Obamacare. It is the law of the land, these Democrats say. Critics should accept it, as critics accepted Medicare. They should work constructively and across the aisle with Democrats to repair any flaws and make the law work to help people. Historical analogies are often useful, but they can be misleading. The Medicare analogy is certainly misleading: Republicans, like it or not, are behaving differently from the way they behaved after the passage of Medicare in 1965. To understand why there is continued resistance to Obamacare and why majorities of...
  • Forget the Old South: Trayvon Martin Was No Emmett Till

    08/02/2013 3:49:25 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 20 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 2, 2013 | Michael Barone
    Why are so many people so desperate to hold onto the idea that America is as racist as it has ever been? The phenomenon is apparent in much of the commentary on the George Zimmerman case. Facts were blithely ignored -- the fact that Zimmerman is Hispanic, not white, by current standards; the evidence that he and not his victim, Trayvon Martin, was pummeled and wounded; the failure to find any hint of anti-black bias in Zimmerman's past. Instead there was a desperate longing to see this unhappy incident as a case of a white racist hunting down and murdering...
  • A BETTER SYSTEM FOR PICKING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (Michael Barone)

    07/22/2013 7:47:19 PM PDT · by neverdem · 25 replies
    Human Events ^ | 7/19/2013 | Michael Barone
    You can get agreement from almost all points on the political spectrum that the worst aspect of our political system is the presidential nomination process. It is perhaps no coincidence that it is the one part of the system not treated in the Constitution. That’s because the Founding Fathers abhorred political parties and hoped that presidents would be selected by something like an elite consensus. But we have political parties, the oldest and third oldest in the world, and they are not going away.Surely a better system is possible. The current system of primaries, caucuses and national conventions is the...
  • A Broken System: The current presidential nomination system serves both parties poorly.

    07/19/2013 7:25:11 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 22 replies
    National Review ^ | 07/19/2013 | Michael Barone
    You can get agreement from almost all points on the political spectrum that the worst aspect of our political system is the presidential nomination process. It is perhaps no coincidence that it is the one part of the system not treated in the Constitution. That’s because the Founding Fathers abhorred political parties and hoped that presidents would be selected by something like an elite consensus. But we have political parties, the oldest and third-oldest in the world, and they are not going away. Surely a better system is possible. The current system of primaries, caucuses, and national conventions is the...
  • Benghazi and IRS Targeting: Politics by Other Means

    05/16/2013 5:25:42 AM PDT · by SJackson · 32 replies
    Foxnews ^ | 5-15-13 | Michael Barone
    What do the Benghazi cover-up and the IRS scandal have in common? They were both about winning elections, under false pretenses. Winning elections, after all, is something Barack Obama is good at. He obviously loves campaigning and delivering grand orations to enormous adoring crowds. He loves it so much that he flew off to Las Vegas to campaign the day after the first murder of a U.S. ambassador in 33 years. What actually happened in Benghazi was out of sync with the Obama campaign line. Osama bin Laden was dead. Al-Qaida was on the run. The global war on terror...
  • College Bubble Bursts After Decades of Extravagance

    05/09/2013 6:50:11 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 50 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | May 9, 2013 | Michael Barone
    Markets work. But sometimes they take time. That's the uncomfortable lesson that proprietors of America's colleges and universities are learning. For many years, market forces didn't seem to apply to them. There was a widespread societal consensus that a college education was a good economic investment. Politicians gave lip service to the idea that everyone should go to college. No one should be stopped by a lack of money. There was historic precedent. The G.I. Bill of Rights vastly expanded college populations and helped build prosperous post-World War II America. Putting even more through college would make us even more...
  • Support for Same-sex Marriage Crosses Party Lines

    03/18/2013 6:24:44 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 51 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | March 18, 2013 | Michael Barone
    In an opinion article in the Columbus Dispatch, Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman announced that he has changed his mind and now supports same-sex marriage. He wrote that on learning that one of his sons is gay he "wrestled with how to reconcile my Christian faith with my desire for Will to have the same opportunities to pursue happiness and fulfillment as his brother and sister." He is not the only prominent Republican to come to this view in this way. Former Vice President Dick Cheney is another. And at the Conservative Political Action Committee convention, a panel sponsored by...
  • Calvin Coolidge Gets New Deal in Revisionist History

    02/25/2013 4:10:30 AM PST · by Kaslin · 51 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 25, 2013 | Michael Barone
    For years, most Americans' vision of history has been shaped by the New Deal historians. Writing soon after Franklin Roosevelt's death, Arthur Schlesinger Jr. and others celebrated his accomplishments and denigrated his opponents. They were gifted writers, and many of their books were bestsellers. And they have persuaded many Americans -- Barack Obama definitely included -- that progress means an ever bigger government In their view, the prosperous 1920s were a binge of mindless frivolity. The Depression of the 1930s was the inevitable hangover, for which FDR administered the cure. That's one way to see it. But there are others,...
  • GOP Has Trouble Settling on Candidates Who Can Win [Michael Barone]

    02/21/2013 2:25:33 PM PST · by Bryan · 9 replies
    Townhall ^ | February 21, 2013 | Michael Barone
    One of the interesting things about recent elections is that Republicans have tended to do better the farther you go down the ballot. They've lost the presidency twice in a row, and in four of the last six contests. They've failed to win a majority in the U.S. Senate, something they accomplished in five election cycles between 1994 and 2006. But they have won control of the House of Representatives in the last two elections, and in eight of the last 10 cycles. And they've been doing better in elections to state legislatures than at any time since the 1920s....
  • Obama's Gangster Government Operates Above the Law

    02/14/2013 4:30:28 AM PST · by Kaslin · 13 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 14, 2013 | Michael Barone
    Presidents' State of the Union addresses are delivered in the chamber of the House of Representatives in the Capitol. The classical majesty of this building where laws are made symbolizes the idea that we live under the rule of law. Unfortunately, the 44th president is running an administration that too often seems to ignore the rule of law. "We can't wait," Barack Obama took to saying after the Republicans captured a majority in the House and refused to pass laws he wanted. He would act to get what he wanted regardless of law. One example: his recess appointments in January...
  • At Last, Republicans Make Their Case to Main Street

    02/07/2013 2:20:40 PM PST · by Kaslin · 14 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 7, 2013 | Michael Barone
    The House Republicans, in serious trouble with public opinion as they blinked facing the "fiscal cliff" over New Year's, seem suddenly to be playing a more successful game -- or rather, games -- an inside game and an outside game. The inside game can be described by the Washington phrase "regular order." What that means in ordinary American English is that you proceed according to the rules. Bills are written in subcommittee and committee and then go to the floor. When the House and Senate pass different versions -- likely when Republicans control the House and Democrats have a majority...
  • Republicans put spotlight on feckless Senate Democrats (Barone likes GOP debt ceiling strategy)

    01/21/2013 6:36:23 PM PST · by SeekAndFind · 4 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 01/21/2013 | Michael Barone
    Have the House Republicans come up with a winning strategy on the debt ceiling and spending cuts? Or just a viable one? Maybe so. They certainly need one that is at least the latter if not the former. Barack Obama is up in the polls since the election, as most re-elected presidents have been. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows him with 52 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval. Other public polls have similar results. In contrast, the NBC/WSJ poll reports that only 26 percent have positive feelings about the Republican Party and 51 negative feelings. Toward Speaker...
  • A Republican Strategy at Last? The GOP will put the spotlight on feckless Senate Democrats.

    01/20/2013 10:39:55 PM PST · by neverdem · 16 replies
    National Review Online ^ | JANUARY 21, 2013 | Michael Barone
    Have House Republicans come up with a winning strategy on the debt ceiling and spending cuts? Or at least a viable one? Maybe so.They certainly need the latter, if not the former. Barack Obama is up in the polls since the election, as most reelected presidents have been. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows him with 52 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval. Other polls have similar results.In contrast, the NBC/WSJ poll reports that only 26 percent have positive feelings about the Republican party and 51 percent have negative feelings. Toward Speaker John Boehner only 18 percent...
  • Michael Barone: Obama's numbers went down, but Romney never inspired voters to vote

    12/26/2012 9:21:54 PM PST · by neverdem · 79 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | December 25, 2012 | Michael Barone
    In combing through the results of the 2012 election -- apparently finally complete, nearly two months after the fact -- I continue to find many similarities between 2012 and 2004 and one enormous difference. Both of the elections involved incumbent presidents with approval ratings hovering around or just under 50 percent facing challengers who were rich men from Massachusetts (though one made his money and the other married it).In both cases, the challenger and his campaign seemed confident he was going to win. and had reasonable grounds to believe so.In both elections, the incumbent started running a barrage of negative...
  • Fiscal Cliff Creates Problems That Don't Faze Obama

    12/13/2012 5:35:41 AM PST · by Kaslin · 18 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | December 13, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Is Barack Obama bluffing when he threatens to go over the fiscal cliff if Republicans refuse to agree to higher tax rates on high earners? Some analysts think so. Keith Hennessey, a former top staffer for the Bush White House and Senate Republicans and a veteran of budget negotiations, argues that Obama's whole second term would be blighted if he allows the fiscal cliff tax increases and sequestration budget cuts to take place next month. His argument is based on three assumptions. One is that going over the fiscal cliff would trigger a sharp recession and a weak economy thereafter....
  • Out-Hustled? Michael Barone on Why So Many Failed to Predict the Reelection of Obama (VIDEO)

    11/26/2012 9:23:44 AM PST · by GVnana · 27 replies
    Many pollsters predicted a Romney win, but were proven wrong on Election Day 2012. Did pollsters fail to account for cellphone users, or did Romney fail at turning out the GOP vote? Did voter fraud play a role? Find out as Michael Barone analyzes the results of the 2012 election with Glenn Reynolds.
  • America's premiere political guru predicts Romney to win comfortably

    11/03/2012 7:53:13 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 61 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rick Moran
    No one doubts Michael Barone's credentials; the guy has established himself as the pre-eminent political nuts and bolts expert in the country. If you watch Barone on election night, you will realize he knows the politics of America down to the key individual counties in each state. His encyclopedic mind recognizes when a state's vote is trending toward one candidate or another early on, and while he is carefully not to predict a winner, he leaves the viewer with little doubt as to who is in trouble and who isn't. But it makes me wonder when he reels off a...
  • Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315 to 223)

    11/03/2012 6:26:31 AM PDT · by mazda77 · 34 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | 11/2/12 | Michael Barone
    Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
  • Barone: Romney pressures Obama by expanding electoral map

    10/30/2012 5:48:33 PM PDT · by markomalley · 11 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | 10/30/12 | Michael Barone
    As the East Coast recoils from Hurricane Sandy, the political news is of new states suddenly inundated with presidential campaign ads. First Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania, more recently Minnesota. Ann Romney is campaigning in Michigan, Bill Clinton in Minnesota. All these are states Barack Obama carried by 10 points or more in 2008. Why is the electoral map scrambled this year? One reason, which I wrote about last week, is that Mitt Romney seems to be running better in affluent suburbs than other recent Republican nominees. That's one reason he made big gains after the first debate in Florida and Virginia,...
  • Changing Demographics and the GOP. They spell trouble for — but not the end of the Republican party

    10/29/2012 6:33:02 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 15 replies
    National Review ^ | 10/29/2012 | Michael Barone
    When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37. Those were the percentages of white voters supporting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, respectively, in the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Overall, the poll showed Romney leading Obama 50 to 47 percent. The reason those two numbers struck my eye is that they are identical to the percentages of white voters supporting Republicans and Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives in the 2010 exit poll. Overall, Republicans won the House popular vote by a margin of...
  • Michael Barone: Changing Demographics Won't mean End of The Republican Party

    10/29/2012 4:59:37 PM PDT · by emax · 34 replies
    Townhall ^ | Michael Barone
    When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37. Those were the percentages of white voters supporting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Overall, the poll showed Romney leading Obama 50 to 47 percent. The reason those two numbers struck my eye is that they are identical to the percentages of white voters supporting Republicans and Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives in the 2010 exit poll. Overall, Republicans won the House popular vote by a margin of 52...
  • Michael Barone Predicts That Romney Will Win 2012 Presidential Race

    10/27/2012 7:45:21 AM PDT · by Snuph · 34 replies
    pjmedia ^ | October 26, 2012 | Ed Driscoll
    Video at link... After discussing the nuts and bolts of Ohio and other battleground states with Sean Hannity on Friday night (interesting in its own right), at the conclusion of the interview, Barone is asked by Hannity which candidate he believes will win. “Mitt Romney,” he replies. Add that to Jim Geraghty’s comments that “Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote,” and you have two prominent statistics-oriented conservative pundits who — at least as of Friday, October 26 — are willing to go on the record that they believe Romney will win in November.
  • Why Mitt is gaining support among women

    10/18/2012 6:48:58 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 25 replies
    National Review ^ | 10/18/2012 | Michael Barone
    An interesting story from last winter: An e-mail friend, a staunch Republican who lives in an affluent suburb far from Washington, was watching one of the Republican debates with his wife, a staunch Democrat. He was surprised by her response to Mitt Romney. “He’s a grown-up. He’s someone who is reliable,” he told me she said. “People will feel safe if he is in charge.” I’ve been thinking about that e-mail in the wake of the first presidential debate on October 3 and the vice-presidential debate last week. (This is written on deadline before the October 16 Long Island debate.)...
  • Barone: When it comes to polls, readers beware

    09/30/2012 6:57:26 AM PDT · by SMGFan · 48 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | September 29, 2012
    As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters. First, some points about the limits of polls. Random-sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such...
  • Romney Pins Hopes on Being Different From Obama

    08/30/2012 6:47:23 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 23 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 30, 2012 | Michael Barone
    TAMPA, Fla. -- The Republicans who are assembled here have been told time and time again that Barack Obama's great advantage over Mitt Romney is likability. And many of the 15,000 or so journalists who endured the gusts of rain on Monday and groaned in the sun on the 1.5-mile walk from the nearest parking lot to the metal detectors outside the convention press center have been writing and soundbiting that the chief task of the Romney campaign is to introduce Romney's personal background and character to the public to improve his favorability ratings. Both talking points are true,...
  • Romney Policies May Trump Obama 'Likability'

    08/29/2012 6:45:25 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 32 replies
    IBD ^ | 08/29/2012 | Michael Barone
    TAMPA, Fla. — The Republicans who are assembled here have been told time and time again that Barack Obama's great advantage over Mitt Romney is likability. And many of the 15,000 or so journalists who endured the gusts of rain on Monday and groaned in the sun on the 1.5-mile walk from the nearest parking lot to the metal detectors outside the convention press center have been writing and sound-biting that the chief task of the Romney campaign is to introduce Romney's personal background and character to the public to improve his favorability ratings. Both talking points are true, but...
  • Barone: GM goes from bad to worse despite Obama bailout

    08/23/2012 5:14:53 PM PDT · by MNJohnnie · 14 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 08-21-2012 | Michael Barone
    Obama told a campaign event audience in Colorado earlier this month, "I said, let's bet on America's workers. And we got management and workers to come together, making cars better than ever, and now GM is number one again and the American auto industry has come roaring back." His conclusion: "So now I want to say that what we did with the auto industry, we can do in manufacturing across America. Let's make sure advanced, high-tech manufacturing jobs take root here, not in China. Let's have them here in Colorado. And that means supporting investment here." Was he calling for...
  • GM Goes From Bad to Worse Despite Obama Bailout

    08/23/2012 5:23:17 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 65 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 23, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Readers with long memories may recall that Charles E. Wilson, president of General Motors and nominee for secretary of defense, got into trouble when he told a Senate committee, "What is good for the country is good for General Motors, and what's good for General Motors is good for the country." That was in 1953, and Wilson was trying to make the point that General Motors was such a big company -- it sold about half the cars in the U.S. back then -- that its interests were inevitably aligned with those of the country as a whole. Things are...
  • Romney and Ryan Turn the Tables on Obama

    08/19/2012 10:32:08 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 9 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 20, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan was supposed to be a problem for the Republicans. So said a chorus of chortling Democrats. So said a gaggle of anonymous seasoned Republican operatives. All of which was echoed gleefully by mainstream media. The problem, these purveyors of the conventional wisdom all said, was Medicare -- to be more specific, the future changes in Medicare set out in the budget resolutions Ryan fashioned as House Budget Committee chairman and persuaded almost all House and Senate Republicans to vote for. But while Democrats licked their chops at the prospect of scaring old ladies that...
  • Michael Barone: Reelection Is Not Inevitable

    05/10/2012 9:52:29 AM PDT · by neverdem · 18 replies
    National Review Online ^ | May 10, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Just as the political air is filled with talk of the inevitability of Barack Obama’s reelection — we are told that the kids at his Chicago headquarters are brimming with confidence — in come some poll numbers showing him behind.Not by anything statistically significant, mind you. But when you get the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls and the Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll all showing Mitt Romney leading Obama by one point, an Obama victory seems far from inevitable.These results came in at a time when the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls shows 50 percent expressing favorable...
  • Obama Is Losing His Rock-star Status Among Young Voters

    04/30/2012 6:50:46 AM PDT · by lbryce · 31 replies
    Investors.com ^ | Aprril 27, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Last week, Barack Obama delivered speeches at universities in Chapel Hill, N.C.; Iowa City, Iowa, and Boulder, Colo. The trip was, press secretary Jay Carney assured us, official government business, not political campaigning. It's part of a pattern. Neil Munro of the Daily Caller has counted 130 appearances by the president, vice president, their spouses, White House officials and Cabinet secretaries at colleges and universities since spring 2011. Obviously, the Obama campaign strategists are worried that he cannot duplicate his 66% to 32% margin among young voters back in 2008. Recent surveys of young people show inconsistent results. Gallup's tracking...
  • To Win Burbs, Romney May Pick 'Double-Vanilla' Veep

    04/19/2012 11:57:18 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 51 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | April 19, 2012 | Michael Barone
    Some 20 million Americans in primaries and caucuses will take part in selecting the Republican presidential nominee. One person will choose the vice presidential nominee. This has long struck me as absurd: One person choosing someone who, as a result, might become president for as long as 10 years. But just about everyone in politics says it's the only proper way. Over the last 25 years, presidential nominees of both parties have engaged in conscientious consultation and have mostly made pretty good choices. No more picks at five o'clock in the morning to meet a convention deadline. For even longer,...
  • Rick’s Loose Lips (Santorum’s loose lips can sometimes turn convictions to controversy)

    02/23/2012 6:43:49 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 50 replies
    National Review ^ | 02/23/2012 | Michael Barone
    A candidateÂ’s strengths can also be his weaknesses. Take the case of Rick Santorum. One of his strengths is perseverance. For more than a year, he made hundreds of appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, with no visible result in the polls. He persevered and ended up finishing first in the Iowa caucuses on January 3. Then, after poor showings in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, he finished first in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado on February 7. Now heÂ’s leading Mitt Romney in most polls nationally and in RomneyÂ’s native state of Michigan. SantorumÂ’s other strengths...
  • YouTube, Social Media Replacing Traditional Campaigns?

    12/14/2011 8:42:26 AM PST · by Slyscribe
    IBD's Capital Hill ^ | 12/15/2011 | Sean Higgins
    That’s what Michael Barone, co-author of “The Almanac of American Politics,” argued at an election forum this morning hosted by the conservative American Enterprise Institute. Voters no longer need to meet candidates at events or see them at rallies to feel as though they know them, he argues. “New media has in different ways displaced some of the old techniques of campaigning that have worked in the past,” he said. “Voters seem to be getting an in-depth look at the candidates through the Internet and cable TV. People can get a sense of them through YouTube clips.”