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Keyword: blackswan

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  • A Manifesto for Disorder: Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ Reviewed

    11/26/2012 5:45:38 PM PST · by oblomov · 5 replies
    Daily Beast ^ | 26 Nov 2012 | Robert Herritt
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has little tolerance for, well, a lot of things. But, as his latest book demonstrates, he holds a particular grievance against the mediocre, the safe middle ground, and most forms of moderation. True to form, Antifragile: Things that Gain From Disorder, is a work of non-fiction that trades in extremes—a book that, in complete earnestness, offers thoughts on everything from the philosophy of Seneca and the structure of the Swiss government to the value of procrastination and the limits of academic research. He is just as likely to bring in Ben Bernanke and Ralph Nader as Hammurabi...
  • Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

    10/21/2012 6:21:53 AM PDT · by blam · 5 replies
    TBI ^ | 10-21-2012 | Global Macro Monitor
    Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole Global Macro MonitorOct. 21, 2012, 6:18 AM Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco. Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign. The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters. We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics...
  • Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US

    02/27/2012 6:44:34 AM PST · by blam · 43 replies · 5+ views
    TBI ^ | 2-27-2012 | Simone Foxman
    Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US Simone FoxmanFebuary 27, 2012In an hours-long interview with CNBC this morning, Warren Buffett admitted that his biggest fear for the U.S. economy is not growth, public debt, Europe, or any of the many threats that generally top economists' worry lists. It's actually a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. Even so, an American baby is probably the luckiest person in the world today. From the interview: CNBC's Becky Quick: Overall you are very optimistic about the future not only of this country but of the stock market....
  • 5 Black Swans That Could Obliterate America's Future

    02/21/2012 5:11:24 AM PST · by Kaslin · 134 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 21, 2012 | John Hawkins
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a fantastic book on the impact of large, high impact, statistically rare events called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. According to Taleb, history tends to swing much more than we realize on these theoretically foreseeable, but often unexpected large events as opposed to the much more predictable trajectory that we tend to forecast when we look ahead to the future. Technically, Taleb would probably classify the events we're about to discuss as "grey swans," unlikely events that we should still be able to anticipate, but that's splitting hairs. Long story short, we...
  • Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans

    01/18/2012 10:10:10 AM PST · by blam · 9 replies
    TBI - Sovereign Man ^ | 1-18-2012 | Simon Black
    Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans Simon Black, Sovereign Man Jan. 18, 2012, 12:39 PM [Editor's note: Simon's friend Tim Price is a delightfully witty fund manager in the UK, one of the few free-thinking individuals in all of institutional finance. His recent thoughts below on the euro debacle, gold, and hyperinflation are some of the best ever written on the topics.]“Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach.” Debt talks “have not produced a constructive response.” - The Institute of...
  • Black Swan

    12/10/2011 2:43:44 PM PST · by nathanbedford · 34 replies · 1+ views
    Vanity (long) ^ | December 10, 2011 | Nathan Bedford
    Seven decades after Pearl Harbor and one decade after 9/11 we Americans dare not remain willfully oblivious to the threat of the Black Swan. Our grand American experiment is more vulnerable now that it was in 1941 and it is certainly more precariously balanced than it was in 2011. These conundrums are what Donald Rumsfeld might describe as the "known unknowns" but by definition a Black Swan event is as surprising as it is earth shattering. So all of these threats which beset us are by definition not Black Swan events. They are known risks. There are many more risks...
  • Mila Kunis urges young people to take interest in politics (ObamaBot)

    09/06/2011 9:14:23 PM PDT · by wac3rd · 54 replies
    The Daily Dish via SF Gate ^ | 9-6-11 | The Daily Dish
    Actress Mila Kunis is frustrated about the lack of interest in politics, insisting it's "crazy" young people "don't educate themselves about the world." The "Black Swan" star is a staunch supporter of President Barack Obama and she's baffled that others in her age group don't hold political views. She's urged the youth of America to sit down with a book or newspaper and learn about current affairs - for the sake of their own children. Kunis tells Britain's Stylist magazine, "Yes (I'm frustrated), because you are given such an amazing opportunity with so much information. Why is no-one taking advantage...
  • China Tells U.S. It Must ‘Cure Its Addiction to Debt’ (China calls for "int'l supervision" of US)

    08/06/2011 3:44:07 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 65 replies
    The New York Times ^ | 2011-08-06 | David Barboza
    SHANGHAI — China, the largest foreign holder of United States debt, said Saturday that Washington needed to “cure its addiction to debts” and “live within its means,” just hours after the rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s long-term debt. The harshly worded commentary, which was released by China’s official Xinhua news agency, was Beijing’s latest effort to express its displeasure with Washington. (snip) “The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone,” read the...
  • 'Black Swan' Bounty Deal Revealed in Wikileaks Cables [Dec 2010]

    06/13/2011 8:24:44 PM PDT · by SunkenCiv · 11 replies · 1+ views
    Discovery News ^ | Wednesday, December 22, 2010 | Rossella Lorenzi
    Hidden behind a fabulous sunken treasure recovered from a wreck in the Atlantic Ocean lays a story of secret diplomatic cables and Nazi art thieves, according to a revelation from WikiLeaks documents. Consisting of 500,000 silver coins weighing more than 17 tons, hundreds of gold coins, worked gold, and other artifacts, the so-called Black Swan treasure has been at the center of an acrimonious international legal battle ever since it was discovered in 2007 by underwater robots from Odyssey Marine Exploration, a Florida-based treasure-hunting company. It wasn't a fair confrontation, according to leaked documents released by WikiLeaks. London's Guardian newspaper,...
  • IMF Chief: 'Black Swans' Still Haunt Global Finance(many are swimming around)

    04/04/2011 4:41:17 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 7 replies
    WSJ ^ | 04/04/11 | IAN TALLEY
    APRIL 4, 2011, 3:51 P.M. ET. IMF Chief: 'Black Swans' Still Haunt Global Finance By IAN TALLEY WASHINGTON—The global economic recovery is still fragile, uneven and "beset by great uncertainty," the head of the International Monetary Fund said late Monday. Growth in rich countries is too low and unemployment too high, Europe's piecemeal approach to resolving its sovereign debt and growth crisis is aggravating its problems and high commodity prices amid lower revenues and investment is threatening to undermine economic restructuring in the Middle East, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in remarks to George WashingtonUniversity students. "Great uncertainty still prevails," Mr. Strauss-Kahn...
  • Who is the Real ‘Black Swan’?

    03/28/2011 2:58:06 PM PDT · by La Enchiladita · 61 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | March 28, 2011 | Christopher John Farley
    So who is the real “Black Swan”? Ironically, a film about a ballerina who is haunted by a doppelganger is dealing with critical comments being made by a dance double who worked on the movie–and now the director is weighing in. Sarah Lane, Natalie Portman’s dance double in “Black Swan,” told the Wall Street Journal this weekend that she did the overwhelming majority of the dancing in the film. “I should specify the actual percentage of dancing that Natalie did,” Lane said in one email. “They are saying that it was 85-90% of the dancing but I can tell you...
  • Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't

    11/26/2010 11:41:04 AM PST · by DeaconBenjamin · 17 replies · 1+ views
    Economist ^ | Nov 22nd 2010
    Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors. A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen “black swan” events, will eventually break into pieces. Although fragile bridges can take a long time to collapse, 25 years in the 21st century should be sufficient to make hidden risks salient: connectivity and operational leverage are making cultural and economic events cascade faster and deeper. Anything fragile today will be broken by then. The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened...
  • Why The New Fetish For "Black Swan Insurance" Means Markets Are BEGGING For Another Crisis

    07/21/2010 10:42:44 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 9 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/20/10 | Joe Weisenthal
    /snip PIMCO is the latest to launch a Black Swan product, though of course it's Mr. Black Swan himself Nassim Taleb who has been at this the longest, with his various funds (Empirca, and now Universa, which he advises) designed to pay off in the event of an extreme event. There's a lot to be skeptical about here, quite obviously. For one thing, as Felix Salmon recently pointed out, designing these products are really, really, hard, since even if you can basically predict the crisis, knowing how various assets will actually move in the event of them is dicey, at...
  • Gold Recovers as Markets Weigh Volcano and Sovereign Debt Default 'Black Swan' Risk

    04/20/2010 3:12:16 PM PDT · by blam · 8 replies · 509+ views
    The Market Oracle ^ | 4-20-2010 | GpldCore
    Gold Recovers as Markets Weigh Volcano and Sovereign Debt Default 'Black Swan' Risk Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 20, 2010 - 07:45 AM By: GoldCore Gold went up to $1,137/oz before dipping slightly in New York yesterday but it then recovered ending with a loss of 0.06%. It has risen from $1,135/oz to $1,142/oz in Asian and early European trading this morning. Gold is currently trading at $1,142/oz and in euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €847/oz and £742/oz respectively. Gold has recovered much of the losses from Friday and gold's fall was as much to...
  • Taleb: The World is More "Complex", More Moody, Much Less Predictable(finally seeing wisdom?)

    01/11/2010 5:40:25 AM PST · by TigerLikesRooster · 4 replies · 385+ views
    Economic Policy Journal ^ | 01/11/10 | Robert Wenzel
    Taleb: The World is More "Complex", More Moody, Much Less Predictable. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has discovered that the more things change the more they stay the same. This has caused him to go on an internet diet: I am not entirely deprived of the Internet; this is just a severe diet, with strict rationing. He writes that the internet has the ability to spread information at before unheard of speed, which has consequences: I used to think that the problem of information is that it turns homo sapiens into fools — we gain disproportionately in confidence, particularly in domains where...
  • The Dark Gray Swan: No More Foreign Dollars With Which To Buy US Treasuries

    12/18/2009 10:46:31 AM PST · by FromLori · 22 replies · 683+ views
    Zero Hedge ^ | 12/18/09 | Tyler Durden
    Could the next black/green/dark gray swan be so obvious that it has avoided everyone? Well, except for the deputy governor of the Bank of China, who just gave the world a startling reminder of economics 101, when he said that it is "getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing the supply of dollars overseas." Oops. The funny thing about natural (and economic) systems: they can only be pushed so far before they snap back to default state. With the entire world embarking on an unprecedented spree of domestic bubble blowing...
  • Taleb: You Fools Don't Understand That We're Doomed

    08/13/2009 12:41:11 PM PDT · by freespirited · 7 replies · 1,494+ views
    Business Insider ^ | 08/12/09 | Henry Blodgett
    The Black Swan graced CNBC with His presence this morning. In sum: * We're all in denial. * We're replacing private debt with public debt. * We're not dealing with the cancer in our banking system. * We're not making the structural changes we need to make. *We're not being aggressive enough about restructuring debt (debt for equity swaps). * Bernanke is a wimpy Greenspan sycophant. * Obama's rewarding the fools who got us here (Summers, Bernanke, Geithner). * The banksters are taking over again. He's pretty much right, by the way.
  • Rogue Wave Drowns 3, 2 Survive At Point Mugu

    11/27/2008 8:10:13 PM PST · by BenLurkin · 26 replies · 6,457+ views
    cbs2 ^ | Nov 27, 2008 7:18 pm US/Pacific
    Three men have drowned after being swept to sea by a rogue wave while watching the surf from a rocky outcrop along California's Central Coast. Authorities say two other men were pulled from the water Thursday afternoon and survived. The bodies of the drowned men were also recovered. Capt. Bruce Norris of the Ventura County sheriff's department says the victims are a 17-year-old boy, a 21-year-old man and a 19-year-old man. He says a 17-year-old boy and 27-year-old man survived. It wasn't immediately clear if the men were related. The wave struck just before 2 p.m. at Mugu Rock, a...
  • Swan reunited with beloved paddleboat (after a failed romance with a real bird)

    03/28/2008 8:40:20 PM PDT · by NormsRevenge · 8 replies · 286+ views
    AP on Yahoo ^ | 3/28/08 | AP
    MUENSTER, Germany - Petra the black swan has been reunited with her beloved swan-shaped paddleboat after a failed romance with a real bird. Officials at a Muenster zoo where Petra has been spending the winter took her to a nearby lake Friday and released her next to the paddleboat — shaped like a giant white swan. Petra became so attached to the boat back in 2006 that she refused to leave its side. When winter came around, she and the boat were taken into the zoo. In recent months, Petra had struck up a relationship with a real white swan....
  • Swan, swan-shaped boat to part ways

    03/18/2008 11:44:44 AM PDT · by NormsRevenge · 15 replies · 321+ views
    AP on Yahoo ^ | 3/18/08 | AP
    BERLIN - A long love story is over at a German zoo: Petra the swan and her swan-shaped paddleboat are parting ways. Petra, a black swan, became a minor celebrity in 2006 when she became so attached to the boat — which is shaped like an oversized white swan — that she refused to leave its side. Officials in the western city of Muenster decided to let her stay with it over the winter, bringing both bird and boat into a city zoo. However, Petra met a live swan this winter. Zoo director Joerg Adler says she and her new...