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Keyword: blackswan

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  • Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event Of All Is Coming

    08/11/2016 8:37:58 AM PDT · by blam · 59 replies
    TMO ^ | 8-11-2016 | Jeff Berwick
    Jeff BerwickAugust 11, 2016 We are at an incredible moment in history. US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system. In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective. In the third quarter of 2015, during...
  • EU Referendum - The Result - Live (Brexit Referendum Live Thread)

    06/23/2016 2:25:24 PM PDT · by goldstategop · 2,252 replies
    BBC News ^ | 06/23/2016 | BBC News
    Live coverage of the result of the EU referendum. This is a live BBC stream starting at 21:55 BST.
  • Trump's Ace In The Hole, The Inequality Black Swan

    06/18/2016 3:02:10 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    Forbes ^ | June 17, 2016 | Larry McDonald
    Political risk has rarely had a more powerful impact on markets. As we head toward November, we must dig in and get to the bottom of what’s really going on. A reality TV star and real estate mogul just mowed down 17 accomplished Republican candidates, by May 3rd it was all over but the shouting. “Investors need to prepare for a Trump presidency.” Jeff Gundlach, May 2016 Donald J. Trump announced his candidacy for president in June 2015, to criticism, mockery, and doubt by the media and political class. Trump’s candidacy and campaign have been called a joke by many...
  • Nassim Taleb Sums Up America's Election In 17 "Black Swan" Words

    03/22/2016 2:36:13 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 34 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 13 March 2016 | On Nassim Taleb, by Tyler Durden
    Sometimes, less is more, and in infamous "Black Swan" philosopher Nassim Taleb's case, summing up the chaos that is enveloping America, and its forthcoming election was as simple as the following: "The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments." To which he appended the following 17 perfectly succinct words: "People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally,...
  • Doubleheader!!! Watch Live: Donald Trump Holds Rally in Davenport, IA (12-5-15)

    12/05/2015 11:43:03 AM PST · by OwenKellogg · 110 replies ^ | 12/5/2015 | NA
    GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump will hold a campaign rally at The Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport, IA on Saturday, December 5, 2015 at 2:00 PM CST. Watch the live stream and replay of the event below.
  • Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War

    10/31/2015 8:22:26 PM PDT · by amorphous · 16 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 31 Oct 2015 | Tyler
    There is a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn’t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on the fate of the lira, and on the Pentagons strategy with regard to embedding spec ops with the YPG. As a reminder, Turkey held elections back in June and the outcome did not please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament thanks in no small part to a relatively strong showing...
  • Will Puerto Rico Cause An Inadvertent “Black Swan” Derivatives Melt-Down?

    07/05/2015 11:55:20 AM PDT · by Lorianne · 24 replies
    IRD ^ | 30 June 2015 | ?
    I really had not been paying much attention to the Puerto Rico debt situation. After all, $72 billion in debt that might go bad – big deal. The Fed can print up $72 billion in credit lines with the push of a button. But a friend of mine happened to mention to me today (Monday) that MBIA’s stock was down over 23% and Assured Guaranty’s stock was down over 13%. That woke me up. Companies like MBI and AMBAC underwrite credit “enhancement” guarantees on these massive cesspools of debt – and the associated derivatives that are “wrapped around” the debt...
  • The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS

    06/28/2015 5:25:10 PM PDT · by John W · 23 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | June 28, 2015 | Peter Spence
    The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank of International Settlements has warned. The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies. These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with...
  • Man Convicted of Stalking Actress Mila Kunis Escapes Pomona Mental Health Facility

    06/01/2015 7:52:16 AM PDT · by BenLurkin · 31 replies
    ktla ^ | Ashley Soley-Cerro
    Stuart Lynn Dunn made an unauthorized departure Saturday around 8 p.m. from a secured mental health facility in Pomona where he was being confined to post-release supervision, Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department Lt. Martin Rodriguez said. Dunn was previously convicted of stalking Kunis, when he allegedly violated a restraining order by repeatedly trying to contact the “Black Swan” actress and temporarily lived in a vacant home she owned, the Los Angeles Times reported in 2012.
  • U.S. ship held in $500M booty row

    10/17/2007 5:55:23 AM PDT · by Freeport · 32 replies · 35+ views
    CNN ^ | 17 October 2007 | Al Goodman
    MADRID, Spain (CNN) -- Spain has again seized an American treasure-hunting ship over a dispute with its owners over who has rights to millions of dollars worth of booty recovered from the sea, officials said. Spain seized the "Odyssey Explorer" -- owned by Odyssey Marine Exploration based Tampa, Florida -- as it sailed out of port in the British colony of Gibraltar on Tuesday. Armed Spanish government vessels were waiting for the Explorer when it reached 6.4 kilometers (4 miles) off Gibraltar's shore and entered what Spain considers its territorial waters. The vessels forced the Explorer to dock at Spain's...
  • Federal Reserve Insider Alan Greenspan Warns:There Will Be a “Significant Market EventSomething Big

    With the Federal Reserve printing trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep the economic system afloat, many investors and financial pundits have surmised that the fundamental economic problems facing the United States during the crash of 2008 have been resolved. Stocks are, after all, at historic highs. But the insiders know different. And if there’s any single person out there who understands U.S. monetary policy and its long-term effects on domestic and global affairs it’s former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. As the head of the world’s most powerful central bank for nearly two decades he’s privy to the insider...
  • HERE IT IS: SocGen's Famous Chart With The Black Swans

    09/09/2014 6:07:16 AM PDT · by blam · 6 replies
    BI ^ | 8-9-2014 | Sam Ro
    Sam RoSeptember 9, 2014 "Black swans" characterize unforeseen and unlikely events that have the potential to rock the economy and financial markets. While the sharp slowdown in Europe has dominated the economic headlines lately, SocGen believes that we should be most worried about China. "The most significant downside risks to the global economy in this short-term setting aside geopolitical risks remains a hard landing of the Chinese economy," the analysts' said. "As highlighted on a previous occasion, the fact that China is now the world’s second largest economy means that a scenario in which China experiences a hard landing knocking...
  • A Manifesto for Disorder: Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ Reviewed

    11/26/2012 5:45:38 PM PST · by oblomov · 5 replies
    Daily Beast ^ | 26 Nov 2012 | Robert Herritt
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has little tolerance for, well, a lot of things. But, as his latest book demonstrates, he holds a particular grievance against the mediocre, the safe middle ground, and most forms of moderation. True to form, Antifragile: Things that Gain From Disorder, is a work of non-fiction that trades in extremes—a book that, in complete earnestness, offers thoughts on everything from the philosophy of Seneca and the structure of the Swiss government to the value of procrastination and the limits of academic research. He is just as likely to bring in Ben Bernanke and Ralph Nader as Hammurabi...
  • Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

    10/21/2012 6:21:53 AM PDT · by blam · 5 replies
    TBI ^ | 10-21-2012 | Global Macro Monitor
    Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole Global Macro MonitorOct. 21, 2012, 6:18 AM Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco. Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign. The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters. We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics...
  • Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US

    02/27/2012 6:44:34 AM PST · by blam · 43 replies · 5+ views
    TBI ^ | 2-27-2012 | Simone Foxman
    Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US Simone FoxmanFebuary 27, 2012In an hours-long interview with CNBC this morning, Warren Buffett admitted that his biggest fear for the U.S. economy is not growth, public debt, Europe, or any of the many threats that generally top economists' worry lists. It's actually a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. Even so, an American baby is probably the luckiest person in the world today. From the interview: CNBC's Becky Quick: Overall you are very optimistic about the future not only of this country but of the stock market....
  • 5 Black Swans That Could Obliterate America's Future

    02/21/2012 5:11:24 AM PST · by Kaslin · 134 replies ^ | February 21, 2012 | John Hawkins
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a fantastic book on the impact of large, high impact, statistically rare events called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. According to Taleb, history tends to swing much more than we realize on these theoretically foreseeable, but often unexpected large events as opposed to the much more predictable trajectory that we tend to forecast when we look ahead to the future. Technically, Taleb would probably classify the events we're about to discuss as "grey swans," unlikely events that we should still be able to anticipate, but that's splitting hairs. Long story short, we...
  • Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans

    01/18/2012 10:10:10 AM PST · by blam · 9 replies
    TBI - Sovereign Man ^ | 1-18-2012 | Simon Black
    Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans Simon Black, Sovereign Man Jan. 18, 2012, 12:39 PM [Editor's note: Simon's friend Tim Price is a delightfully witty fund manager in the UK, one of the few free-thinking individuals in all of institutional finance. His recent thoughts below on the euro debacle, gold, and hyperinflation are some of the best ever written on the topics.]“Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach.” Debt talks “have not produced a constructive response.” - The Institute of...
  • Black Swan

    12/10/2011 2:43:44 PM PST · by nathanbedford · 34 replies · 1+ views
    Vanity (long) ^ | December 10, 2011 | Nathan Bedford
    Seven decades after Pearl Harbor and one decade after 9/11 we Americans dare not remain willfully oblivious to the threat of the Black Swan. Our grand American experiment is more vulnerable now that it was in 1941 and it is certainly more precariously balanced than it was in 2011. These conundrums are what Donald Rumsfeld might describe as the "known unknowns" but by definition a Black Swan event is as surprising as it is earth shattering. So all of these threats which beset us are by definition not Black Swan events. They are known risks. There are many more risks...
  • Mila Kunis urges young people to take interest in politics (ObamaBot)

    09/06/2011 9:14:23 PM PDT · by wac3rd · 54 replies
    The Daily Dish via SF Gate ^ | 9-6-11 | The Daily Dish
    Actress Mila Kunis is frustrated about the lack of interest in politics, insisting it's "crazy" young people "don't educate themselves about the world." The "Black Swan" star is a staunch supporter of President Barack Obama and she's baffled that others in her age group don't hold political views. She's urged the youth of America to sit down with a book or newspaper and learn about current affairs - for the sake of their own children. Kunis tells Britain's Stylist magazine, "Yes (I'm frustrated), because you are given such an amazing opportunity with so much information. Why is no-one taking advantage...
  • China Tells U.S. It Must ‘Cure Its Addiction to Debt’ (China calls for "int'l supervision" of US)

    08/06/2011 3:44:07 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 65 replies
    The New York Times ^ | 2011-08-06 | David Barboza
    SHANGHAI — China, the largest foreign holder of United States debt, said Saturday that Washington needed to “cure its addiction to debts” and “live within its means,” just hours after the rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s long-term debt. The harshly worded commentary, which was released by China’s official Xinhua news agency, was Beijing’s latest effort to express its displeasure with Washington. (snip) “The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone,” read the...
  • 'Black Swan' Bounty Deal Revealed in Wikileaks Cables [Dec 2010]

    06/13/2011 8:24:44 PM PDT · by SunkenCiv · 12 replies · 1+ views
    Discovery News ^ | Wednesday, December 22, 2010 | Rossella Lorenzi
    Hidden behind a fabulous sunken treasure recovered from a wreck in the Atlantic Ocean lays a story of secret diplomatic cables and Nazi art thieves, according to a revelation from WikiLeaks documents. Consisting of 500,000 silver coins weighing more than 17 tons, hundreds of gold coins, worked gold, and other artifacts, the so-called Black Swan treasure has been at the center of an acrimonious international legal battle ever since it was discovered in 2007 by underwater robots from Odyssey Marine Exploration, a Florida-based treasure-hunting company. It wasn't a fair confrontation, according to leaked documents released by WikiLeaks. London's Guardian newspaper,...
  • IMF Chief: 'Black Swans' Still Haunt Global Finance(many are swimming around)

    04/04/2011 4:41:17 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 7 replies
    WSJ ^ | 04/04/11 | IAN TALLEY
    APRIL 4, 2011, 3:51 P.M. ET. IMF Chief: 'Black Swans' Still Haunt Global Finance By IAN TALLEY WASHINGTON—The global economic recovery is still fragile, uneven and "beset by great uncertainty," the head of the International Monetary Fund said late Monday. Growth in rich countries is too low and unemployment too high, Europe's piecemeal approach to resolving its sovereign debt and growth crisis is aggravating its problems and high commodity prices amid lower revenues and investment is threatening to undermine economic restructuring in the Middle East, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in remarks to George WashingtonUniversity students. "Great uncertainty still prevails," Mr. Strauss-Kahn...
  • Who is the Real ‘Black Swan’?

    03/28/2011 2:58:06 PM PDT · by La Enchiladita · 61 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | March 28, 2011 | Christopher John Farley
    So who is the real “Black Swan”? Ironically, a film about a ballerina who is haunted by a doppelganger is dealing with critical comments being made by a dance double who worked on the movie–and now the director is weighing in. Sarah Lane, Natalie Portman’s dance double in “Black Swan,” told the Wall Street Journal this weekend that she did the overwhelming majority of the dancing in the film. “I should specify the actual percentage of dancing that Natalie did,” Lane said in one email. “They are saying that it was 85-90% of the dancing but I can tell you...
  • Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't

    11/26/2010 11:41:04 AM PST · by DeaconBenjamin · 17 replies · 1+ views
    Economist ^ | Nov 22nd 2010
    Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors. A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen “black swan” events, will eventually break into pieces. Although fragile bridges can take a long time to collapse, 25 years in the 21st century should be sufficient to make hidden risks salient: connectivity and operational leverage are making cultural and economic events cascade faster and deeper. Anything fragile today will be broken by then. The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened...
  • Why The New Fetish For "Black Swan Insurance" Means Markets Are BEGGING For Another Crisis

    07/21/2010 10:42:44 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 9 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/20/10 | Joe Weisenthal
    /snip PIMCO is the latest to launch a Black Swan product, though of course it's Mr. Black Swan himself Nassim Taleb who has been at this the longest, with his various funds (Empirca, and now Universa, which he advises) designed to pay off in the event of an extreme event. There's a lot to be skeptical about here, quite obviously. For one thing, as Felix Salmon recently pointed out, designing these products are really, really, hard, since even if you can basically predict the crisis, knowing how various assets will actually move in the event of them is dicey, at...
  • Gold Recovers as Markets Weigh Volcano and Sovereign Debt Default 'Black Swan' Risk

    04/20/2010 3:12:16 PM PDT · by blam · 8 replies · 509+ views
    The Market Oracle ^ | 4-20-2010 | GpldCore
    Gold Recovers as Markets Weigh Volcano and Sovereign Debt Default 'Black Swan' Risk Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 20, 2010 - 07:45 AM By: GoldCore Gold went up to $1,137/oz before dipping slightly in New York yesterday but it then recovered ending with a loss of 0.06%. It has risen from $1,135/oz to $1,142/oz in Asian and early European trading this morning. Gold is currently trading at $1,142/oz and in euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €847/oz and £742/oz respectively. Gold has recovered much of the losses from Friday and gold's fall was as much to...
  • Taleb: The World is More "Complex", More Moody, Much Less Predictable(finally seeing wisdom?)

    01/11/2010 5:40:25 AM PST · by TigerLikesRooster · 4 replies · 385+ views
    Economic Policy Journal ^ | 01/11/10 | Robert Wenzel
    Taleb: The World is More "Complex", More Moody, Much Less Predictable. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has discovered that the more things change the more they stay the same. This has caused him to go on an internet diet: I am not entirely deprived of the Internet; this is just a severe diet, with strict rationing. He writes that the internet has the ability to spread information at before unheard of speed, which has consequences: I used to think that the problem of information is that it turns homo sapiens into fools — we gain disproportionately in confidence, particularly in domains where...
  • The Dark Gray Swan: No More Foreign Dollars With Which To Buy US Treasuries

    12/18/2009 10:46:31 AM PST · by FromLori · 22 replies · 683+ views
    Zero Hedge ^ | 12/18/09 | Tyler Durden
    Could the next black/green/dark gray swan be so obvious that it has avoided everyone? Well, except for the deputy governor of the Bank of China, who just gave the world a startling reminder of economics 101, when he said that it is "getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing the supply of dollars overseas." Oops. The funny thing about natural (and economic) systems: they can only be pushed so far before they snap back to default state. With the entire world embarking on an unprecedented spree of domestic bubble blowing...
  • Taleb: You Fools Don't Understand That We're Doomed

    08/13/2009 12:41:11 PM PDT · by freespirited · 7 replies · 1,494+ views
    Business Insider ^ | 08/12/09 | Henry Blodgett
    The Black Swan graced CNBC with His presence this morning. In sum: * We're all in denial. * We're replacing private debt with public debt. * We're not dealing with the cancer in our banking system. * We're not making the structural changes we need to make. *We're not being aggressive enough about restructuring debt (debt for equity swaps). * Bernanke is a wimpy Greenspan sycophant. * Obama's rewarding the fools who got us here (Summers, Bernanke, Geithner). * The banksters are taking over again. He's pretty much right, by the way.
  • Rogue Wave Drowns 3, 2 Survive At Point Mugu

    11/27/2008 8:10:13 PM PST · by BenLurkin · 26 replies · 6,457+ views
    cbs2 ^ | Nov 27, 2008 7:18 pm US/Pacific
    Three men have drowned after being swept to sea by a rogue wave while watching the surf from a rocky outcrop along California's Central Coast. Authorities say two other men were pulled from the water Thursday afternoon and survived. The bodies of the drowned men were also recovered. Capt. Bruce Norris of the Ventura County sheriff's department says the victims are a 17-year-old boy, a 21-year-old man and a 19-year-old man. He says a 17-year-old boy and 27-year-old man survived. It wasn't immediately clear if the men were related. The wave struck just before 2 p.m. at Mugu Rock, a...
  • Swan reunited with beloved paddleboat (after a failed romance with a real bird)

    03/28/2008 8:40:20 PM PDT · by NormsRevenge · 8 replies · 286+ views
    AP on Yahoo ^ | 3/28/08 | AP
    MUENSTER, Germany - Petra the black swan has been reunited with her beloved swan-shaped paddleboat after a failed romance with a real bird. Officials at a Muenster zoo where Petra has been spending the winter took her to a nearby lake Friday and released her next to the paddleboat — shaped like a giant white swan. Petra became so attached to the boat back in 2006 that she refused to leave its side. When winter came around, she and the boat were taken into the zoo. In recent months, Petra had struck up a relationship with a real white swan....
  • Swan, swan-shaped boat to part ways

    03/18/2008 11:44:44 AM PDT · by NormsRevenge · 15 replies · 321+ views
    AP on Yahoo ^ | 3/18/08 | AP
    BERLIN - A long love story is over at a German zoo: Petra the swan and her swan-shaped paddleboat are parting ways. Petra, a black swan, became a minor celebrity in 2006 when she became so attached to the boat — which is shaped like an oversized white swan — that she refused to leave its side. Officials in the western city of Muenster decided to let her stay with it over the winter, bringing both bird and boat into a city zoo. However, Petra met a live swan this winter. Zoo director Joerg Adler says she and her new...