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Keyword: blackswan

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  • Barclays considers Elon Musk a potential commodity ‘black swan’ of 2017

    01/06/2017 7:04:10 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 2 replies
    Financial Times ^ | 01/06/2017 | by: David Keohane
    To be fair, the list is 13 risks long and it’s mostly populism driven. But there is some Elon, as advertised: And note, as Barc’s commods team does, that “Indices are already pricing in record levels of volatility as 2017 begins, and investors are specifically concerned about geopolitical developments.” Finally by way of additional context, and as a reminder that commods did ok in 2016: Hard to disagree with Citi's Matt King – the orderliness of markets recently – even with the bond sell-off – has been striking and strange: pic.twitter.com/wUZppgxjRC — Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) January 5, 2017
  • The Intellectual Yet Idiot

    09/19/2016 12:45:55 PM PDT · by Darnright · 22 replies
    medium.com ^ | 9/16/2016 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for. But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligenzia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define...
  • Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event Of All Is Coming

    08/11/2016 8:37:58 AM PDT · by blam · 59 replies
    TMO ^ | 8-11-2016 | Jeff Berwick
    Jeff BerwickAugust 11, 2016 We are at an incredible moment in history. US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system. In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective. In the third quarter of 2015, during...
  • EU Referendum - The Result - Live (Brexit Referendum Live Thread)

    06/23/2016 2:25:24 PM PDT · by goldstategop · 2,252 replies
    BBC News ^ | 06/23/2016 | BBC News
    Live coverage of the result of the EU referendum. This is a live BBC stream starting at 21:55 BST.
  • Trump's Ace In The Hole, The Inequality Black Swan

    06/18/2016 3:02:10 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    Forbes ^ | June 17, 2016 | Larry McDonald
    Political risk has rarely had a more powerful impact on markets. As we head toward November, we must dig in and get to the bottom of what’s really going on. A reality TV star and real estate mogul just mowed down 17 accomplished Republican candidates, by May 3rd it was all over but the shouting. “Investors need to prepare for a Trump presidency.” Jeff Gundlach, May 2016 Donald J. Trump announced his candidacy for president in June 2015, to criticism, mockery, and doubt by the media and political class. Trump’s candidacy and campaign have been called a joke by many...
  • Nassim Taleb Sums Up America's Election In 17 "Black Swan" Words

    03/22/2016 2:36:13 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 34 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 13 March 2016 | On Nassim Taleb, by Tyler Durden
    Sometimes, less is more, and in infamous "Black Swan" philosopher Nassim Taleb's case, summing up the chaos that is enveloping America, and its forthcoming election was as simple as the following: "The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments." To which he appended the following 17 perfectly succinct words: "People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally,...
  • Doubleheader!!! Watch Live: Donald Trump Holds Rally in Davenport, IA (12-5-15)

    12/05/2015 11:43:03 AM PST · by OwenKellogg · 110 replies
    rsbn.tv ^ | 12/5/2015 | NA
    GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump will hold a campaign rally at The Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport, IA on Saturday, December 5, 2015 at 2:00 PM CST. Watch the live stream and replay of the event below.
  • Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War

    10/31/2015 8:22:26 PM PDT · by amorphous · 16 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 31 Oct 2015 | Tyler
    There is a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn’t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on the fate of the lira, and on the Pentagons strategy with regard to embedding spec ops with the YPG. As a reminder, Turkey held elections back in June and the outcome did not please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament thanks in no small part to a relatively strong showing...
  • Will Puerto Rico Cause An Inadvertent “Black Swan” Derivatives Melt-Down?

    07/05/2015 11:55:20 AM PDT · by Lorianne · 24 replies
    IRD ^ | 30 June 2015 | ?
    I really had not been paying much attention to the Puerto Rico debt situation. After all, $72 billion in debt that might go bad – big deal. The Fed can print up $72 billion in credit lines with the push of a button. But a friend of mine happened to mention to me today (Monday) that MBIA’s stock was down over 23% and Assured Guaranty’s stock was down over 13%. That woke me up. Companies like MBI and AMBAC underwrite credit “enhancement” guarantees on these massive cesspools of debt – and the associated derivatives that are “wrapped around” the debt...
  • The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS

    06/28/2015 5:25:10 PM PDT · by John W · 23 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | June 28, 2015 | Peter Spence
    The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank of International Settlements has warned. The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies. These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with...
  • Man Convicted of Stalking Actress Mila Kunis Escapes Pomona Mental Health Facility

    06/01/2015 7:52:16 AM PDT · by BenLurkin · 31 replies
    ktla ^ | Ashley Soley-Cerro
    Stuart Lynn Dunn made an unauthorized departure Saturday around 8 p.m. from a secured mental health facility in Pomona where he was being confined to post-release supervision, Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department Lt. Martin Rodriguez said. Dunn was previously convicted of stalking Kunis, when he allegedly violated a restraining order by repeatedly trying to contact the “Black Swan” actress and temporarily lived in a vacant home she owned, the Los Angeles Times reported in 2012.
  • U.S. ship held in $500M booty row

    10/17/2007 5:55:23 AM PDT · by Freeport · 32 replies · 35+ views
    CNN ^ | 17 October 2007 | Al Goodman
    MADRID, Spain (CNN) -- Spain has again seized an American treasure-hunting ship over a dispute with its owners over who has rights to millions of dollars worth of booty recovered from the sea, officials said. Spain seized the "Odyssey Explorer" -- owned by Odyssey Marine Exploration based Tampa, Florida -- as it sailed out of port in the British colony of Gibraltar on Tuesday. Armed Spanish government vessels were waiting for the Explorer when it reached 6.4 kilometers (4 miles) off Gibraltar's shore and entered what Spain considers its territorial waters. The vessels forced the Explorer to dock at Spain's...
  • Federal Reserve Insider Alan Greenspan Warns:There Will Be a “Significant Market EventSomething Big

    With the Federal Reserve printing trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep the economic system afloat, many investors and financial pundits have surmised that the fundamental economic problems facing the United States during the crash of 2008 have been resolved. Stocks are, after all, at historic highs. But the insiders know different. And if there’s any single person out there who understands U.S. monetary policy and its long-term effects on domestic and global affairs it’s former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. As the head of the world’s most powerful central bank for nearly two decades he’s privy to the insider...
  • HERE IT IS: SocGen's Famous Chart With The Black Swans

    09/09/2014 6:07:16 AM PDT · by blam · 6 replies
    BI ^ | 8-9-2014 | Sam Ro
    Sam RoSeptember 9, 2014 "Black swans" characterize unforeseen and unlikely events that have the potential to rock the economy and financial markets. While the sharp slowdown in Europe has dominated the economic headlines lately, SocGen believes that we should be most worried about China. "The most significant downside risks to the global economy in this short-term setting aside geopolitical risks remains a hard landing of the Chinese economy," the analysts' said. "As highlighted on a previous occasion, the fact that China is now the world’s second largest economy means that a scenario in which China experiences a hard landing knocking...
  • A Manifesto for Disorder: Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ Reviewed

    11/26/2012 5:45:38 PM PST · by oblomov · 5 replies
    Daily Beast ^ | 26 Nov 2012 | Robert Herritt
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has little tolerance for, well, a lot of things. But, as his latest book demonstrates, he holds a particular grievance against the mediocre, the safe middle ground, and most forms of moderation. True to form, Antifragile: Things that Gain From Disorder, is a work of non-fiction that trades in extremes—a book that, in complete earnestness, offers thoughts on everything from the philosophy of Seneca and the structure of the Swiss government to the value of procrastination and the limits of academic research. He is just as likely to bring in Ben Bernanke and Ralph Nader as Hammurabi...
  • Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole

    10/21/2012 6:21:53 AM PDT · by blam · 5 replies
    TBI ^ | 10-21-2012 | Global Macro Monitor
    Here's The Political Black Swan That Would Collapse Confidence And Suck Markets Into A Black Hole Global Macro MonitorOct. 21, 2012, 6:18 AM Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco. Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign. The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters. We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics...
  • Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US

    02/27/2012 6:44:34 AM PST · by blam · 43 replies · 5+ views
    TBI ^ | 2-27-2012 | Simone Foxman
    Warren Buffett's Greatest Fear: An Inevitable Nuclear, Chemical Or Biological Attack On The US Simone FoxmanFebuary 27, 2012In an hours-long interview with CNBC this morning, Warren Buffett admitted that his biggest fear for the U.S. economy is not growth, public debt, Europe, or any of the many threats that generally top economists' worry lists. It's actually a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. Even so, an American baby is probably the luckiest person in the world today. From the interview: CNBC's Becky Quick: Overall you are very optimistic about the future not only of this country but of the stock market....
  • 5 Black Swans That Could Obliterate America's Future

    02/21/2012 5:11:24 AM PST · by Kaslin · 134 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 21, 2012 | John Hawkins
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a fantastic book on the impact of large, high impact, statistically rare events called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. According to Taleb, history tends to swing much more than we realize on these theoretically foreseeable, but often unexpected large events as opposed to the much more predictable trajectory that we tend to forecast when we look ahead to the future. Technically, Taleb would probably classify the events we're about to discuss as "grey swans," unlikely events that we should still be able to anticipate, but that's splitting hairs. Long story short, we...
  • Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans

    01/18/2012 10:10:10 AM PST · by blam · 9 replies
    TBI - Sovereign Man ^ | 1-18-2012 | Simon Black
    Europe Is Setting The Stage For The Mother Of All Black Swans Simon Black, Sovereign Man Jan. 18, 2012, 12:39 PM [Editor's note: Simon's friend Tim Price is a delightfully witty fund manager in the UK, one of the few free-thinking individuals in all of institutional finance. His recent thoughts below on the euro debacle, gold, and hyperinflation are some of the best ever written on the topics.]“Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach.” Debt talks “have not produced a constructive response.” - The Institute of...
  • Black Swan

    12/10/2011 2:43:44 PM PST · by nathanbedford · 34 replies · 1+ views
    Vanity (long) ^ | December 10, 2011 | Nathan Bedford
    Seven decades after Pearl Harbor and one decade after 9/11 we Americans dare not remain willfully oblivious to the threat of the Black Swan. Our grand American experiment is more vulnerable now that it was in 1941 and it is certainly more precariously balanced than it was in 2011. These conundrums are what Donald Rumsfeld might describe as the "known unknowns" but by definition a Black Swan event is as surprising as it is earth shattering. So all of these threats which beset us are by definition not Black Swan events. They are known risks. There are many more risks...