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Uh-oh. Mortgage rates are rising at the same time that leading indicators (lumber futures and architectural billings) are declining. According to Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprise in conservatorship, mortgage rates are trending upwards. The primary-secondary mortgage rate spread has fallen below 100 basis points (but remains elevated since Fannie and Freddie were put into conservatorship). At the same time, lumber futures continue to decline. Architectural billings plunged declined by the most since 2008. And architectural inquiries also declined. House prices remain elevated since a year ago (FNC, Case-Shiller, Loan Performance, FHFA). Let’s see how this impacts prices.

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What is going to happen when the greatest economic bubble in the history of the world pops? The mainstream media never talks about that. They are much too busy covering the latest dogfights in Washington and what Justin Bieber has been up to. And most Americans seem to think that if the Dow keeps setting new all-time highs that everything must be okay. Sadly, that is not the case at all. Right now, the U.S. economy is exhibiting all of the classic symptoms of a bubble economy. You can see this when you step back and take a longer-term view...

Juan Jesus Guerrero Chapa, a Mexican lawyer who engaged in dirty work for the Gulf cartel, was gunned down in his car on Wednesday evening in the wealthy suburb of Southlake outside the Dallas-Fort Worth area as reported by The Dallas Morning News: "Specifically, the investigator said, Guerrero Chapa was the personal attorney to cartel leader Osiel Cardenas, who is serving a 25-year sentence in the United States for drug trafficking, money laundering and other charges. * * * Guerrero Chapa served as what's commonly known in Mexico as el correo — the mail — delivering communications between Cardenas and...

Alessandro Taloni, a reputed associate of the Montreal-based Rizzuto clan, has pleaded guilty for his role in an alleged $1 billion drug trafficking organization which brought hydroponic bud into New York and sent powder cocaine into Canada according to a press release from Brooklyn federal prosecutors: "The organization allegedly transported tens of thousands of pounds of marijuana from outdoor growers in British Colombia to Montreal, Canada, and controlled numerous warehouses in and around Montreal for the manufacture of ecstasy and hydroponic marijuana. The drugs were smuggled into the United States using transportation networks run by the Hells Angels and Native...

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated he has little appetite for a premature slowing of the central bank’s asset purchase program because of persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market and a general lack of confidence in the self-sustaining nature of the recovery. At the same time, he hinted that personal credit was too tight. Well, with California, Arizona and Nevada house prices racing like a scalded cat, I shudder to think what will happen if the credit floodgates open wide. Mortgage purchase applications remain stable and back at levels last seen in 1997. And according to Zillow, about...

Yesterday afternoon, following the rout in the US stock market, we made a spurious preview (TWITTER) of the true main event: SO SELL OFF IN JGBS TONIGHT? We had no idea how right we would be because the second Japan opened, its bond futures market was halted on a circuit breaker as the 10 Year bond plunged to their lowest level since early 2012, hitting 1% and leading to massive Mark to Market losses for Japanese banks, as we also warned would happen. That was just the beginning, and suddenly the realization crept in that the plunging yen at this...

Mike Gallagher, a national syndicated Radio Talk Show Host, has today jumped on the Rubio Band Wagon to allow 10-20 million foreigners who have invaded our borders to stay here, and stay in front of those who have been waiting for years to enter our Country legally. Of course, Mr. Gallagher avoided giving an answer to his audience which addresses the most fundamental question which needs to be answered. How is it in the general welfare of the United States to allow 10-20 million foreigners who have invaded our borders to stay here who, for the most part, are uneducated,...

Rubio was on Cavuto and Hannity’s shows today and so naturally I watched Cavuto (watch daily) not Hannity and he (Rubio) was outraged about the current IRS scandal and said we need MORE investigations into it. See? He is one of us. And he says we can’t trust Obama with big government health care, (how about big government amnesty-care Rubio?) and we must repeal it , see, he is going after Obama ? He is on OUR side. He really ripped Obama on that too. Then Cavuto got to immigration and never letting us down he started by played a...

“How can I prepare for an economic collapse?” is one of the most common questions I get. It usually takes me a second to start to explain how complex such a question is. It’s like asking an auto mechanic, “Say, how do you build a car?” or asking a computer engineer, “What’s all that stuff inside my laptop?” I do have some first-hand experience in this matter, though. The economy in my country, Argentina, has gone through various crises, but none as large as when the economy collapsed in 2001 after a decade of apparent prosperity. The currency devaluated, and...

Yesterday, Texas HB 48 passed the senate. It is now on its way to the governor for a signature. This means that there is no longer a requirement for renewal courses every five years to maintain a CHL. HB 48 would eliminate the requirement for a CHL holder to demonstrate handgun proficiency by taking a continuing education course to renew the license. The bill would repeal Government Code sections 411.188 (c) and 411.188 (j), which require a continuing education course for CHL renewal and would specify how DPS should adopt rules for this course. DPS would mail a notice of...

The Internet Sales Tax. Nothing illustrates the ravenous nature of BigGov and its insatiable desire to destroy even the smallest extant vestiges of Free Enterprise in America than the effort underway to pull millions of small businesses into their net of taxation. While the support this legislation is getting on Capitol Hill from Democrats is no particular eye-opener, it is the support from Republicans that should alert us to the hypocritical tendencies of that party. In one breath, they pander to us about smaller government and cutting spending and taxes – but when they think our backs are turned, they...

In writing about the ACA and our health-care problems, I started to think more and more about supply restrictions. In every other industry, costs come down when new suppliers come in and compete. Yet our health-care system is full of restrictions and protections to keep new suppliers out, and competition down. Then we wonder why hospitals won't tell you how much care will cost, and send you bills with $100 band aids on them. In that context, I was interested to learn this week about the ACA's limits on expansion of doctor-owned hospitals. The Wall Street Journal article is here,...

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke testified this morning in the US Senate. Afterwards, US Treasury 10 year yield rose by around 9 basis points. Fannie Mae MBS current coupon rates have been rising. And the Bankrate 30 year spread over the Fannie current coupon rate remains about 100 basis points. The primary/secondary spread remains elevated from before Fannie and Freddie were put into conservatorship. And as Treasury rates trend upward, Fannie MBS durations are also rising. This results in a slower burn off rate for The Fed’s massive portfolio.

Apple's Bite Apple and its CEO Tim Cook are making history, superseding very serious Administration scandals from the MSM’s consciousness and from the front pages, as they endure a very public assault by Congress for having obeyed corporate and tax laws of the countries in which they conduct business. For decades international corporations have used all tools available to them which might strengthen their business, their health, their market penetration, and their profitability.  For decades most corporations, even small companies, when licensing intellectual property, have followed the rules Congress established, just as Apple has done.  Now, Congress, led by Sen....

I would say 'typical' statist tantrum when denied a fresh power-grab, yet this one is really a bit over the top...  The NY Post (via JWF) is reporting an incident where Mayor Bloomberg confronted a cab fleet operator in a private club over his recent court defeat re. his utopian 'Cab of the Future' program. Hissoner seems to have made quite an ass of himself in fact, threatening at the top of his lungs -with red face- while utilizing the 'F' word twice to underscore his point. And what's he all worked-up about? Seems his cab-replacement program (that was to...

The unfolding IRS scandal is a symptom, not the disease. For decades, campaign-finance reform zealots have sought to limit core political speech through spending limits and disclosure requirements. More recently, they have claimed that it is wrong and dangerous for tax-exempt entities to engage in political speech. The Obama administration shares these views, especially when conservative, small-government organizations are involved, and the IRS clearly got the message. While the agency must be investigated and reformed, the ultimate cure for these abuses is to unshackle political speech by all groups, including tax-exempt ones, from arbitrary and unconstitutional government regulation. Beginning in...

A recent search for new Chevy Volts on cars.com unearthed 9,254 vehicles currently at dealerships for sale. There were another 258 late-model, used Volts available. About half of those had less than 5,000 miles on them. Considering the abysmal sales rate for the self-proclaimed electric wonder-car (1,306 in April for those keeping track), the unofficial inventory numbers point to about a seven month supply of Volts available. Ideal inventory levels are considered to be in the two month range. It may be near time for General Motors to halt production, yet again, for the floundering Volt. The inventory numbers for...

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in April to the highest level in more than three years as housing continued to gain momentum. Purchases of existing houses increased 0.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.97 million, the most since November 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median forecast called for a pickup to a 4.99 million pace. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that mortgage applications fell 9.8% from the previous week. Mortgage purchase applications fell 3% from the previous week. But purchase applications remain at 2010 levels. Mortgage rates remain very low and...

The Wall Street Journal reports on what National Review Online’s Veronique de Rugy calls one more in the law of ”unintended consequences” to the implementation of our President’s “signature law” – ObamaCare (via Memeorandum -bolded emphasis added by me): "Employers are increasingly recognizing they may be able to avoid certain penalties under the federal health law by offering very limited plans that can lack key benefits such as hospital coverage. Benefits advisers and insurance brokers—bucking a commonly held expectation that the law would broadly enrich benefits—are pitching these low-benefit plans around the country. They cover minimal requirements such as preventive...

MOSCOW — "Russia is like a tub full of dough. You push your hand all the way to the bottom, pull it out, and right before your eyes, the hole disappears, and again, it is a tub full of dough," Nikita Khrushchev once said, assessing the country he ruled. The former premier -- my great grandfather -- who 60 years ago denounced Joseph Stalin and his pervasive security apparatus, must be turning in his grave. Russia's legal institutions are still run along the lines of Stalin's "show trials." Following the politically motivated prosecutions of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky and...

Two years ago, Zero Hedge first made the observation that the bulk of Fed reserves (also known simply as "cash created out of thin air" because money is first and foremost fungible no matter what textbook theoreticians may claim, and the only cash allocation preference is the capital allocation IRR analysis) had been parked not with US banks, but with foreign banks with US-based operations. We followed that with more analyses, showing explicitly how the Fed was providing a constant cash injection to foreign banks courtesy of the rate on overnight reserves which is the amount Fed pays to banks...

Just as they SHAMELESSLY exploit the deaths of children to a psychopath in Connecticut, the Democrats cannot wait a day to exploit the dead in Oklahoma due to tornadoes. There is no depth of scum to low in which they will immerse themselves. I posted this on May 20th and the swindlers have not failed to do what was expected. (video)

Recently I asked if housing was in a bubble. Today, Zillow released their house price data by metro area to get a closer glimpse of a potential housing bubble … again. According to Zillow, Phoenix AZ, Sacramento CA, San Jose CA, San Francisco CA, Modesto CA, Vallejo CA, Las Vegas NV, Reno NV, Stockton CA and Santa Rosa CA all grew over 20% Year over year in terms of house prices. Even Detroit rose 13.97%. While California housing is on fire, not all US cities are rising. Rockford IL is the biggest loser in terms of house prices. And Chicago...

You know what’s rallying? Crap! The most-indebted U.S. companies are rallying more than any time in almost four years compared with the rest of the stock market amid the broadest rally since at least 1995.Federal Reserve interest rates near zero and the expanding economy are allowing Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies with the lowest working capital, smallest earnings and highest debt ratios to reduce borrowing costs and avoid default. The stocks surged 27 percent this year, almost double the gains for businesses with the most cash and least borrowing, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Group...

It now seems clear that the Department of Homeland Security’s stockpiling of ammunition and other warfare supplies can no longer be dismissed as “conspiracy theory,” but is a very real development in the actions of an overreaching federal government. Many have suggested and assumed that the ammo and gun shortage experienced across the country is the result of private citizens’ unprecedented purchases, in recent years, in preparation for impending gun control measures. While this is true in part, it is only half of the logical explanation that can be assessed based upon available facts. This phenomenon has been described as...

Taofledermaus has done some experimentation with 3D printing of 12 gauge projectiles. They have had mixed results, but it is clear that there is promise in this approach. Combining the base wad with the projectile, while incorporting a hole in the nose for an embeded penetrator is one obvious possibility.Making the projectile solid, with a hollowed base, could also strengthen the projectile and improve performance. The slow motion video of the firing is fascinating to watch. Dean Weingarten

Remember Enron? Remember Kenneth Lay? How about the tens of billions that were lost in that scandal? It was a series of events that will be talked about for decades to come, yet history seems to be repeating itself in 2013. Not in the private sector, but in the Federal government. For those who may not know or need a refresher in history, Enron was once one of the largest companies in the world. Its business was primarily in the energy sector. Unfortunately, accounting fraud and corruption led to its ultimate downfall, one of the largest bankruptcies in history, and...

When it comes to the IRS’s ongoing, repressive behavior against conservative groups, you’re likely to hear different verdicts: The hard Left says, of course, that this is a molehill that the Republicans are scandalously trying to turn into a scandal. (The New York Times perfectly exemplifies this line of thinking.) Others on the Left admit incompetence, but refuse to assign moral blame. Conservatives are willing to assign moral blame but think that no one really cares. I believe that everyone should care because what we’re seeing now is a new type of scandal in American history, and the biggest crime...

According to RealtyTrac, Akron Ohio is the leader in housing units per foreclosure filings. And Columbus Ohio is 6th on the list. The FC in Ohio? Rounding out the top 20 foreclosure metro areas are Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Canton. You know, pretty much the entire state. Huh. I would have thought that Richard Cordray, the current Robo-cop at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and former attorney general of Ohio, would have cleaned up the foreclosure mess before heading up the CFPB. Here is a chart of underwater mortgages in Ohio. Ohio is at 32.48% underwater. The striking thing...

Sharon at the Phoenix Gun Turn In Sharon came to the gun turn in at the Sunnyslope Mennonite Church in Phoenix, looking for a pistol for self defense. She shoots at Shooters World, and intends to take the pistol there to have it checked out. She has children in the Army, and she expects that they will go to the desert for some family fun with their firearms. Sharon said "We should have weapons to protect our families and homes." Sharon's Makarov The pistol that she obtained, a Russian made Makarov in .380 ACP, was in excellent condition with...

    As the top chart shows, gold's brief recovery now looks more and more like a "dead cat bounce." Further weakness is likely in store, as the second chart suggests. As I mentioned last month, gold appears to be re-linking to commodities.   This is a big deal, as the chart above suggests. Gold had been trouncing just about everything for 10 years or so, but now things are reversing. Equities—productive investment—are now in favor while gold—speculative investment—is out of favor.

When you watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” with James Stewart from 1946, you are given the impression that banks (as represented by Henry F. Potter) are stingy and evil. Savings and Loans (S&Ls) (as represented by George Bailey) are kind-hearted and good. A ridiculous stereotype, of course. Tell that to taxpayers who had to bail out the S&L industry to the tune of more than $124 billion. Bert Ely has a nice discussion of what happened to the S&L industry here. In short, S&L’s were regulated as to how much interest they could pay on deposits (Reg Q) and when...

Swiss Vetterli Carbine Circa 1870 This Vetterli carbine was turned in very early on May 18, 2013, at the Phoenix gun turn in event. I photographed it on the turn in table at about 8:09 am. I cannot Identify it further, and this is the only picture that I have. Does anyone know if this is an original carbine, or is it a later conversion? The rifle was manufactured about 1870. Dean Weingarten

Last year Burger King’s Summertime Menu included a Bacon Sundae but they seem intent on topping that this year with the introduction of the Burger King Rib Sandwich. An obvious copy of the popular McDonald’s McRib Sandwich, the Burger King version will be available starting May 21st through the end of the summer along with the return of a line of Memphis Pulled Pork Sandwiches and Sweet Potato Fries. The Burger King Rib Sandwich was tested in Shreveport, Louisiana and did very well there. Let’s not forget Burger King also had those Fire Grilled bone in Ribs a few years...

On Thursday, police in Orem arrested Alexander Navidad-Hernandez, 27, and Javier Santos-Jacobo, 27, after they reportedly tried to convince two sisters, ages 14 and 16, to have sex with them for $30.A day earlier, one of the suspects pulled-up next to the girls as they walked home, handed them a $5 bill, along with his phone number and told them to call him if they wanted to make some money, according to police. The Daily Herald reported: The girls told their father about what had happened and he had the older of the girls call the number. The man who...

Second Amendment Check is a great organization that enables you to support the right to bear arms with your wallet, rewarding companies who support the Second Amendment, and boycotting companies who don't. This organization deserves your support (click on the "Donate" button and email them a "thank you"). You should shop according to their evaluation of gun-friendly or gun-unfriendly businesses. Second Amendment Check "reach[es] out to companies via email and telephone" to determine which businesses support the constitutional right to bear arms. They rate those willing to participate. Note that Second Amendment Check states, "If we can't get in direct...

Suicide rates are tied to the economy. The Boston Globe reported in 2011: A new report issued today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finds that the overall suicide rate rises and falls with the state of the economy — dating all the way back to the Great Depression. The report, published in the American Journal of Public Health, found that suicide rates increased in times of economic crisis: the Great Depression (1929-1933), the end of the New Deal (1937-1938), the Oil Crisis (1973-1975), and the Double-Dip Recession (1980-1982). Those rates tended to fall during strong economic times...

It’s a Catch 22. There’s no way out. If the government acknowledges what is happening, confidence in the economy and financial markets will be lost and we’ll have a repeat of 2008 or worse. If the Federal Reserve stops expanding the monetary base and puts an end to the monthly $85 billion in purchases, the entire house of cards will collapse in on itself. So, their only option is to continue on this course. But it is a trajectory that will lead to a collapse so severe that our civilization may not be able to survive it. The inflation we’re...

House prices at the national level have rising since February 2012. Here are the Case-Shiller 20 index, the Loan Performance house price index and the FNC RPI 30 index. They all point to rising house prices. Mortgage rates continue to decline (longer-trend) making housing more “affordable.” Thanks mostly to The Fed’s unorthodox monetary policy. Other economic indicators are positive as well. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index is at its highest level since 2007. And the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators increased this morning. The US dollar has been spiking. And the S&P 500 has been on a roll....

Documents and Multimedia Listen to Lois Lerner, head of the Internal Revenue Service’s tax-exempt division, discuss the agency’s audits during a meeting of the American Bar Association in Washington. See examples of questionnaires sent by the IRS to conservative advocacy groups seeking tax-exempt status. A January, 2012 letter from the IRS to an unnamed organization. . A February, 2012 letter from the IRS to a conservative group in Oklahoma . An April, 2010 letter from the IRS to the Albuquerque Tea Party . A January, 2012 letter from the IRS to Patriots Educating Concerned Americans Now . A February 2012...

IRS Rationale for Tea Party Scandal Is Debunked by Data By Doug Donovan Applications for tax exemption from advocacy nonprofits had not yet spiked when the Internal Revenue Service began using what it admits was inappropriate scrutiny of conservative groups in 2010. In fact, applications were declining, data show. Top IRS officials have been saying that a “significant increase” in applications from advocacy groups seeking tax-exempt status spurred its Cincinnati office in 2010 to filter those requests by using such politically loaded phrases as “Tea Party,” “patriots,” and “9/12.” Both Steven Miller, the agency’s acting commissioner until he stepped down...

At least 32 groups that filed applications to become tax-exempt charities could have sued the Internal Revenue Service last year for taking too long to make a decision, according to a Treasury Department audit released Tuesday that faulted the agency for mishandling applications from groups that could be politically oriented. “Potential political cases took significantly longer than average to process due to ineffective management oversight,” said the report, which found that the IRS had inappropriately singled out conservative organizations that had words like “Tea Party,” or “patriots” in their names or focused on issues like government spending or taxes. The...

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This Benjamin .22 pump air rifle was in like new condition The gun turn in event at Phoenix the last two weekends also collected air guns. No gift cards were given for them, but a few came in anyway. The lucky private buyer paid $45 for the Benjamin pictured above, including a tin of 500 pellets. This table of air rifles and handguns was turned in on 11 May. Most of them are relatively inexpensive, but you can see what appears to be a decent quality break open air rifle with scope under the imitation model 94 Winchester. The...

Remember This Moment (The 'Black Swans' Have Had Their Necks Broken) Joshua M Brown May 16th, 2013 “There may be more beautiful times, but this one is ours.” - Jean-Paul Sartre It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice. There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia." -Frank Zappa I want to you stop, take a breath and consider this moment we're in. Because you will look back on it and realize how amazing it was - how amazing it is! The Black Swans we'd been guessing at have had their...

It’s a popular saying for many: "Tax cuts don’t create jobs." Google it, and there are more than 100,000 results for that specific claim. At this point, it is a truism for liberal politicians and commentators that tax cuts are ineffective. In 2010, Gov. Rick Snyder ran a campaign around getting rid of the hated Michigan Business Tax, which was one of the first things accomplished by the new Legislature. The change overwhelmingly helped small businesses while shifting larger corporations to a much less complicated 6 percent flat tax. The result was a $1.7 billion business tax cut. Here are...

One of the strange things about North Carolina (and there are many) is that Durham County has a firearm registry. It’s banned everywhere else in the state, but the legislature authorized Durham to register firearms. I don’t know if anyone actually registers, but legally  you’re supposed to. Kind of like legally you’re suppose to come to a complete stop at the stop sign, but frequently you don’t. Now a Democrat NC Senator has manged to pass a bill through the House that repeals that registry, ending the only firearm registry in North Carolina. A bill put forward by Sen. Mike Woodard,...

The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey declined to -5.20, according to their latest report. The current activity index has shown no pattern of sustained growth over the past seven months, generally alternating between positive and negative readings (see Chart). The number of firms reporting decreased activity this month (29 percent) edged out those reporting increased activity (24 percent). So, Philly’s Steak isn’t sizzling. Rather, it’s getting cold. Sovereign yields around the globe continue to decline between a rush to safety and Central Bank easing. And there is nothing more vile than a cold Philly Steak sandwich with coagulated cheese sauce.

Yesterday was a bad economic news day … and today continues the trend. Housing starts fell, initial jobless claims rose and “inflation” fell. May 16 (Bloomberg) — Starts of new homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in April to a five-month low, indicating a pause in the industry’s progress as builders slowed work on apartments. Building permits surged to an almost five-year high. Housing starts slumped 16.45 percent, the most since February 2011, to an 853,000 annualized rate after a revised 1.02 million pace in March. The real jolt is the decline in multifamily starts of -37.77% for...