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Posts by ancient_geezer

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  • Tesla Roadster - The most fun you can have without fuel [Jay Leno reviews plug in electric car]

    07/10/2007 2:38:58 PM PDT · 26 of 62
    ancient_geezer to TWohlford

    Dem balloons provide a great simulation of a blowout when they bust too. A 2fer!!!!

  • Tesla Roadster - The most fun you can have without fuel [Jay Leno reviews plug in electric car]

    07/10/2007 2:29:38 PM PDT · 23 of 62
    ancient_geezer to JamesP81

    I’m sure going to be miss the majestic roar of a 350 small block chevy.

    A poker card in the wheel spokes works good. Kids these days jess don' know nut'in ;O)

  • U.S. appeals court orders dismissal of domestic spying suit

    07/06/2007 10:33:40 AM PDT · 12 of 14
    ancient_geezer to 3AngelaD

    Fact of the matter is, if you are not a terrorist, or talking to overseas terrorists on the phone, no one is listening to your conversations. No one.

    Most times, not even the person being called is actually listening, LOL.

  • Temperature roller coaster (Record Cold in Scranton, PA...Global Warming?)

    06/30/2007 8:05:19 PM PDT · 21 of 22
    ancient_geezer to Gondring

    So you seem to be in the camp that calls a semi-automatic hunting rifle an "assault weapon" just beacuse "the usage has been decided" by the gubmint.

    So how many folks have lost the .legal battle for failing to recognize the the usage of that term in law?

    They one that round very handily I would say, because we allowed them to define the usage of said term in law and the courts and have been paying a heavy price ever since.

    Common usage means nothing in a court of law, the legal and treaty definitions rule whenever they are defined in statute; A condition to the detriment of many a person attempting to fight a legal and political battle not recognising the political meanings of the terms of art they are faced with.

    Argue science when the fight is one of politics will ultimately loose the war that much be fought in these issues.

  • Temperature roller coaster (Record Cold in Scranton, PA...Global Warming?)

    06/30/2007 7:57:05 PM PDT · 19 of 22
    ancient_geezer to Gondring

    So you seem to be in the camp that calls a semi-automatic hunting rifle an "assault weapon" just beacuse "the usage has been decided" by the gubmint.

     

    When you don’t recognize the political stakes and terms of the debate, in this case national sovereignty, and personal freedom. You loose.

    The debate is political, not scientific.

    " 'science for policy' must be recognized as a different enterprise than 'science itself"

    Your issues are a nonstarter in the international political debate where the real fight must be fought.

     

    You are aware, no doubt, of Dr. Schneider’s earlier comments on climate.

    Of that I am very much aware, I am also aware the Schneider and his ilk will win, if we don't take on the "science for policy", i.e. political fight that must be fought far a beyond that of science fact.

    Losing the propaganda war by falling into the bait and switch semantic trap will be the real disaster. Conceding the existence of "Climate Change" by allowing the inclusion of that treaty defined term into law out of lack of understanding the import of its meaning under treaties and international law will indeed be death knell of political debate that stands before us.

  • A Gorey Mess

    06/30/2007 9:32:28 AM PDT · 14 of 19
    ancient_geezer to DEEP_e
    The UN/IPCC plan is nothing more than an elaborate bait and switch scam using treating defined terms and concensus politics to drive toward global political and economic regulation agendas.

     

    An Economist's Perspective on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol,
    by
    Ross McKitrick. November 2003
    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/McKitrick.pdf

    The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined "climate change" as follows:

    • "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
      ( http://unfccc.int/index.html )

    The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined it differently ( http://www.ipcc.ch/ ):

    • Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

    This is a very important difference: The IPCC is looking for signs of any change, whereas the policy instruments prescribed by the UNFCCC are not triggered unless it is a particular kind of change: that attributable to human activity. When IPCC officials declare that "climate change" is for real, this is about as informative as announcing that the passage of time is for real. Of course the climate changes: if it didn't Winnipeg would still be under a glacier. But the fact that the last ice age ended doesn't imply that the policy mechanisms of the UNFCCC should kick in. That's the problem with the ambiguity over the term "climate change"-and it seems to trip up a lot of people-accepting the reality of "climate change" does not mean accepting the need for policy interventions. And denying that global warming is a problem requiring costly policy measures is not the same as denying "climate change."

     


     

    Mix UN/IPCC consensus driven politics with science the animal you get is anything but science.

     

    The genesis of the UN/IPCC's current uncertainty guidance paper comes from the concepts expressed in this paper authored by Steven Schneider (one of the historical heavy lifters in the anthropogenic global warming crew) on the subject of how uncertainty should be expressed in IPCC papers:

    http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/UncertaintiesGuidanceFinal2.pdf

    "A final note before turning to the specific recommendations themselves-the paper assumes that for most instances in the TAR, a "Bayesian" or "subjective" characterization of probability will be the most appropriate (see, e.g., Edwards, 1992, for a philosophical basis for Baysian methods; for applications of Bayesian methods, see e.g., Anderson, 1998; Howard et al., 1972). The Bayesian paradigm is a formal and rigorous language to communicate uncertainty. In it, a "prior" belief about a probability distribution (typically based on existing evidence) can be updated by new evidence, which causes a revision of the prior, producing a so-called "posterior" probability. Applying the paradigm in the assessment process involves combining individual authors' (and reviewers') Bayesian assessments of probability distributions and would lead to the following interpretation of probability statements: the probability of an event is the degree of belief that exists among lead authors and reviewers that the event will occur, given the observations, modeling results, and theory currently available. When complex systems are the topic, both prior and updated probability distributions usually contain a high degree of (informed) subjectivity. Thus in the TAR, we expect Bayesian approaches to be what is most often meant when probabilities are attached to outcomes with an inherent component of subjectivity or to an assessment of the state of the science from which confidence characterisations are offered."

    And the intent of the use of such terms:

    "It is certainly true that "science" itself strives for objective empirical information to test theory and models. But at the same time "science for policy" must be recognized as a different enterprise than "science" itself, since science for policy (e.g., Ravetz, 1986) involves being responsive to policymakers' needs for expert judgment at a particular time, given the information currently available, even if those judgments involve a considerable degree of subjectivity. "

     

    The same Steven Schneider responsible for this quote:

    "On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but - which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."
    (Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and (American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996).

  • Temperature roller coaster (Record Cold in Scranton, PA...Global Warming?)

    06/30/2007 8:59:43 AM PDT · 16 of 22
    ancient_geezer to Gondring
    P.S. You may find this of interest in regards UN/IPCC estimates of uncertainty. Such have nothing to do with Science and everything to do with politics and political agendas.

    Mix UN/IPCC consensus driven politics with science the animal you get is anything but science.

     

    The genesis of the UN/IPCC's current uncertainty guidance paper comes from the concepts expressed in this paper authored by Steven Schneider (one of the historical heavy lifters in the anthropogenic global warming crew) on the subject of how uncertainty should be expressed in IPCC papers:

    http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/UncertaintiesGuidanceFinal2.pdf

    "A final note before turning to the specific recommendations themselves-the paper assumes that for most instances in the TAR, a "Bayesian" or "subjective" characterization of probability will be the most appropriate (see, e.g., Edwards, 1992, for a philosophical basis for Baysian methods; for applications of Bayesian methods, see e.g., Anderson, 1998; Howard et al., 1972). The Bayesian paradigm is a formal and rigorous language to communicate uncertainty. In it, a "prior" belief about a probability distribution (typically based on existing evidence) can be updated by new evidence, which causes a revision of the prior, producing a so-called "posterior" probability. Applying the paradigm in the assessment process involves combining individual authors' (and reviewers') Bayesian assessments of probability distributions and would lead to the following interpretation of probability statements: the probability of an event is the degree of belief that exists among lead authors and reviewers that the event will occur, given the observations, modeling results, and theory currently available. When complex systems are the topic, both prior and updated probability distributions usually contain a high degree of (informed) subjectivity. Thus in the TAR, we expect Bayesian approaches to be what is most often meant when probabilities are attached to outcomes with an inherent component of subjectivity or to an assessment of the state of the science from which confidence characterisations are offered."

    And the intent of the use of such terms:

    "It is certainly true that "science" itself strives for objective empirical information to test theory and models. But at the same time "science for policy" must be recognized as a different enterprise than "science" itself, since science for policy (e.g., Ravetz, 1986) involves being responsive to policymakers' needs for expert judgment at a particular time, given the information currently available, even if those judgments involve a considerable degree of subjectivity. "

     

    The same Steven Schneider responsible for this quote:

    "On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but - which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."
    (Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and (American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996).

  • Temperature roller coaster (Record Cold in Scranton, PA...Global Warming?)

    06/30/2007 7:02:58 AM PDT · 15 of 22
    ancient_geezer to Gondring

    I refuse to yield that terminology change to the UNFCCC version you use

    LOL, you don't have a say, in the usage it has already been decided by UN treaty obligations.

    Climate Change in regards international law and its US law, as we are adherants to the 1992 "UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ", controls the political debate regarding statutes and regulations.

    Science has nothing to do with it, global political control and regulation of economies is the controlling and end product of this debate. The usage of political terms is a matter of international law and political shenannigans at this point. The issue is about political and economic control and nothing else.

    You may argue your points all you wish, it will not change the terms of the real debate that remains hidden from your view as long as you fail to recognize what the real debate is actually about and insist on arguing from the wrong premises.

    That is why the Political Summary from the IPCC states "Climate Change" is anthropogenic to a 90% certainty. The statement is a political statment not a statement of science. It is based on a concensus , a beysian estimate, of wearing the scientist's frock for cover and misdirection.

  • Temperature roller coaster (Record Cold in Scranton, PA...Global Warming?)

    06/29/2007 7:25:22 PM PDT · 8 of 22
    ancient_geezer to Gondring

    Anyone who denies that climate change is occurring just isn't paying attention.

    The UN/IPCC usage of the term "Climate Change" means anthropogenic cause. It is an apriori assumption implicit in treaty obligations whenever said term is used in the context of political action.

     

    An Economist's Perspective on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol,
    by
    Ross McKitrick. November 2003
    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/McKitrick.pdf

    The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined "climate change" as follows:

    • "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
      ( http://unfccc.int/index.html )

    The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined it differently ( http://www.ipcc.ch/ ):

    • Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

     

    The main question now is, "How much, if any, is anthropogenic?"

    Anthropogenic cause is presumed within the term "Climate Change" thus no such question remains to be answered in the the view of climate alarmists and political opportunists. In using the term you have stipulated that the cause is anthropogenic.

  • China building more power plants

    06/20/2007 12:03:24 PM PDT · 9 of 32
    ancient_geezer to chessplayer

    "He pointed out that much of China's emissions growth was being driven by consumers in the West buying Chinese goods,"

    That's easy to fix, put high tariff's on Chinese stuff and just quit buying it.

    Emission's problem solved.

  • Duncan Hunter Speaks at Fair Tax Rally

    05/23/2007 10:27:02 AM PDT · 13 of 31
    ancient_geezer to WalterSkinner; Taxman; pigdog; Principled; EternalVigilance; rwrcpa1; phil_will1; kevkrom; ...
    A Taxreform ping for you all.

    If anyone would like to be added to this ping list let me know.

    John Linder in the House(HR25) & Saxby Chambliss Senate(S25) offer a comprehensive bill to kill all federal income, SS/Medicare payroll, and gift/estate taxes outright replacing them with with a national retail sales tax administered by the states.

    for additional information:

  • Climate change talks grow in importance (Global Warming Barf Alert!)

    04/29/2007 6:31:23 AM PDT · 21 of 21
    ancient_geezer to razorback-bert

    I have some carbon (graphite) trapped in a jar.

    That's noth'n, I've got a lump of coal in a sock. So There!! as my daughter would say ;O)

  • ATK Supports Successful Launch of Pegasus Rocket Carrying NASA's AIM Satellite

    04/27/2007 8:36:46 AM PDT · 4 of 6
    ancient_geezer to BenLurkin

    The AIM satellite mission will explore Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs), also called noctilucent clouds. PMCs, form about 50 miles above the Earth's surface and are commonly seen over the polar regions. More recently these clouds have been sighted in Colorado and Utah where they have never before been observed.

     

    Interesting, considering where we are in the present inter-glacial part of the earth's glacial cycle.

     

    Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
    Richard A. Muller* and Gordon J. MacDonald

    Figure 2. Spectral fingerprints in the vicinity of the 100 kyr peak: (a) for data from Site 607; (b) for data of the SPECMAP stack; (c) for a model with linear response to eccentricity, calculated from the results of Quinn et al. (ref 6); (d) for the nonlinear ice-sheet model of Imbrie and Imbrie (ref 22); and (e) for a model with linear response to the inclination of the Earth's orbit (measured with respect to the invariable plane). All calculations are for the period 0-600 ka. The 100 kyr peak in the data in (a) and (b) do not fit the fingerprints from the theories (c) and (d), but are a good match to the prediction from inclination in (e). return to beginning


    Far more important to our present analysis, however, is the fact that the predicted 100 kyr "eccentricity line" is actually split into 95 and 125 kyr components, in serious conflict with the single narrow line seen in the climate data. The splitting of this peak into a doublet is well known theoretically (see, e.g., ref 5), but in comparisons with data the two peaks in the eccentricity were merged into a single broad peak by the poor resolution of the Blackman-Tukey algorithm (as was done, for example, in ref 8). The single narrow peak in the climate data was likewise broadened, and it appeared to match the broad eccentricity feature.

    ***

    Figure 3. Variations of the inclination vector of the Earth's orbit. The inclination i is the angle between this vector and the vector of the reference frame; Omega is the azimuthal angle = the angle of the ascending node (in astronomical jargon).. In (A), (B), and (C) the measurements are made with respect to the zodiacal (or ecliptic) frame, i.e. the frame of the current orbit of the Earth. In (D), (E), and (F) the motion has been trasformed to the invariable frame, i.e. the frame of the total angular momentum of the solar system. Note that the primary period of oscillation in the zodiacal frame (A) is 70 kyr, but in the invariable plane (D) it is 100 kyr.

     

     

    There is evidence from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (ref 39) of a narrow dust band extending only two degrees from the invariable plane. The precise location of these bands is uncertain; they may be orbiting in resonant lock with the Earth (ref 40, 41). It is not clear that these bands contain sufficient material to cause the observed climate effects. We note, however, that even small levels of accretion can scavenge greenhouse gases from the stratosphere, and cool the Earth's climate through the mechanism proposed by Hoyle (ref 30). The dust could also affect climate by seeding the formation of much larger ice crystals. The accreting material could be meteoric, originating as particles too large to give detectable infrared radiation.

    Data on noctilucent clouds (mesospheric clouds strongly associated with the effects of high meteors and high altitude dust) supports the hypothesis that accretion increase significantly when the Earth passes through the invariable plane. As shown in Figure 6, a strong peak in the number of observed noctilucent clouds occurs on about July 9 in the northern hemisphere (ref 41, 42) within about a day of the date when the Earth passes through the invariable plane (indicated with an arrow). In the southern hemisphere the peak is approximately on January 9, also consistent with the invariable plane passage, but the data are sparse. The coincidence of the peaks of the clouds with the passage through the invariable plane had not previously been noticed, and it supports the contention that there is a peak in accretion at these times. On about the same date there is a similarly narrow peak is observed in the number of polar mesospheric clouds (ref43) and there is a broad peak in total meteoric flux (ref 44). It is therefore possible that it is the trail of meteors in the upper atmosphere, rather than dust, that is responsible for the climate effects.


    Fig 6. Frequency of noctilucent clouds vs. day of year, in (A) the northern hemisphere, and in (B) the sourthern hemisphere (ref 41, 42). The arrows indicate the dates when the earth passes through the invariable plane. The coincidence of these dates with the maxima in the noctilucent clouds suggests the presence of a thin ring around the sun. Peaks on the same dates are seen in Polar mesospheric clouds (ref 44) and in radar counts of meteors.

     

    Previous article in regards the noctilucent cloud formations:

    http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn9228-mysterious-glowing-clouds-targeted-by-nasa.html

    Mysterious glowing clouds targeted by NASA
    26 May, 2006

    High-altitude noctilucent clouds have been mysteriously spreading around the world in recent years (Image: NASA/JSC/ES and IA)

    And coincident dust aggregations:

     

    http://newton.ex.ac.uk/aip/physnews.252.html#1

    INTERPLANETARY DUST PARTICLES (IDPs) are deposited on the Earth at the rate of about 10,000 tons per year. Does this have any effect on climate? Scientists at Caltech have found that ancient samples of helium-3 (coming mostly from IDPs) in oceanic sediments exhibit a 100,000-year periodicity. The researchers assert that their data, taken along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, support a recently enunciated idea that Earth's orbital inclination varies with a 100-kyr period; this notion in turn had been broached as an explanation for a similar periodicity in the succession of ice ages. (K.A. Farley and D.B. Patterson, Nature, 7 December 1995.)
    Farley & Patterson 1998, http://www.elsevier.com/gej-ng/10/20/36/33/37/32/abstract.html
    Farley http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~farley/
    Farley http://www.elsevier.nl/gej-ng/10/18/23/54/21/49/abstract.html

     

    http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/pr96/dec96/noaa96-78.html

    ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE DURING LAST GLACIAL PERIOD COULD BE TIED TO DUST-INDUCED REGIONAL WARMING

    Preliminary new evidence suggests that periodic increases in atmospheric dust concentrations during the glacial periods of the last 100,000 years may have resulted in significant regional warming, and that this warming may have triggered the abrupt climatic changes observed in paleoclimate records, according to a scientist at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Current scientific thinking is that the dust concentrations contributed to global cooling.

  • Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Official Press Release

    04/26/2007 5:25:43 AM PDT · 12 of 14
    ancient_geezer to Steve Van Doorn
    Thanks for the ping.

    Of interest, the range of the current prediction for Cycle 24 affirms the lower range of longterm estimate, in fact points at an even lower level than that earlier estimate:

     

     

     

    NASA - Long Range Solar Forecast

     

    The ultimate test will be the long term prediction covering cycle 25, which holds the greatest potential for affirming or disproving the connection solar cycle connection with global climate.

     

    The Little Ice Age was a associated with a lack of observed sunspots though several cycles, i.e. the Maunder Minimum.

  • Move to block emissions 'swindle' DVD [Global Warming]

    04/25/2007 8:42:35 AM PDT · 75 of 147
    ancient_geezer to Gondring

    :It’s a shame that those who feel our climate change isn’t anthropogenic feel they must resort to Michael Moore-style lies to make their case.

    Accusing one's opposition of one's own sins hardly a new gambit.

    But then, more in politics than any other endevour the bigger the fabrication, the more likely it will be received by the intended audience:

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken

     

  • Relax, the planet is fine

    04/25/2007 8:24:14 AM PDT · 25 of 42
    ancient_geezer to Zon

    It's almost as though they took a page right out of the Dark Ages.

    Almost? These methods have been around throughout history.

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken

  • Singapore meeting takes on climate change

    04/19/2007 8:15:49 AM PDT · 3 of 3
    ancient_geezer to NormsRevenge

    SINGAPORE (AFP) - More than 600 business executives and experts began meeting in Singapore on Thursday to discuss how the corporate world can help tackle the threat of climate change.

     

    Garbage in, Garbage out

    An Economist's Perspective on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol,
    by
    Ross McKitrick. November 2003
    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/McKitrick.pdf

    The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined "climate change" as follows:

    • "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
      ( http://unfccc.int/index.html )

    The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined it differently ( http://www.ipcc.ch/ ):

    • Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

    This is a very important difference: The IPCC is looking for signs of any change, whereas the policy instruments prescribed by the UNFCCC are not triggered unless it is a particular kind of change: that attributable to human activity. When IPCC officials declare that "climate change" is for real, this is about as informative as announcing that the passage of time is for real. Of course the climate changes: if it didn't Winnipeg would still be under a glacier. But the fact that the last ice age ended doesn't imply that the policy mechanisms of the UNFCCC should kick in. That's the problem with the ambiguity over the term "climate change"-and it seems to trip up a lot of people-accepting the reality of "climate change" does not mean accepting the need for policy interventions. And denying that global warming is a problem requiring costly policy measures is not the same as denying "climate change."

     


     

     

    United Kingdom Parliment,
    Select Committee on Economic Affairs Written Evidence
    published 21 June 2005
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we16.htm

    Memorandum by Ross McKitrick, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Guelph

    INTRODUCTION

      I am an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada. I specialize in environmental economics and issues related to climate change. My research is funded by the federally-funded Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, through peer-reviewed grant competitions.

      I am pleased that your Inquiry is taking up issues related to the IPCC process. I have observed this organization very closely over the past few years and I believe a critical outside assessment is overdue. The IPCC exerts tremendous global influence over energy, environment and climate policies, yet is effectively unaccountable. They have not won over any of their prominent critics since the mid-1990s, meanwhile new, credible experts continue to come forward with doubts about the IPCC's credibility.

      In this submission I would like to explain two concerns I have regarding the IPCC:

    • —  It appears to have little or no working relationship with the mainstream academic economics community;
    • —  It has exaggerated the rigor of its scientific review process.

    1.   The lack of connection between the IPCC and the academic economics community

      One of the striking differences between the Second Assessment Report of 1995 and the Third Assessment Report of 2001 is the loss of participation of mainstream economists in the latter. A comparison of the lists of chapter contributors (especially in Working Group II) between the reports will confirm that the IPCC could no longer claim to have the participation of mainstream professional economists after 1995.

      In recent years some economists have taken greater notice of the IPCC's work because of the efforts of Ian Castles and David Henderson to focus expert attention on the "Special Report on Emission Scenarios" (SRES). This has led to a growing body of criticism of the IPCC's handling of economic issues. The SRES does not use conventional economic modeling to produce what would normally be called "forecasts" or "projections". They call their outputs "storylines" and "scenarios" and emphasize that they are speculative, yet at the same time they market the results as "predictions". For example, the back cover of the SRES Report states (emphasis added):

    • The [IPCC] Special Report on Emission Scenarios describes new scenarios of the future, and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with such developments .  .  . The scenarios provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies.

      The list of contributors to the SRES and to the IPCC (WGII) Report[78] includes a small and non-representative sample of economists, amongst a long list of government bureaucrats and academics from other disciplines. Moreover I know that some of the contributing economists are quite critical of the final Reports. One of them is John Reilly of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In an article in Canada's National Post (27 November 2002) he said that the SRES exercise was "in my view, a kind of insult to science" and the method was "lunacy". He said his lab refused a request from the IPCC to let their models be "tweaked" to support the IPCC scenarios.

      In Canada there is a large community of academic economists, many with an international reputation, working in the fields of natural resource, energy and environmental economics. None of the participants in our annual research study group, numbering close to one hundred members drawn from universities across Canada and the US, is involved with the IPCC or had any hand in the SRES Report.

      I recently completed a study, [79]coauthored with Mark Strazicich of Appalachian State University, that confirms the SRES emission scenarios are unrealistically high. We used time series econometric methods to analyze data on per capita carbon dioxide emissions for 121 countries around the world. We are able to show that the global per capita CO2 emissions level is a stationary constant (neither drifting nor trending upwards) with a long term mean of 1.14 tonnes per person and a standard deviation of 0.02. The mean has not changed for several decades, and indeed is trending slightly downwards since the early 1980s (see figure below). If emissions average just over 1.1 tonnes per person, and population peaks (as expected) at about nine billion mid-century, we can expect peak emissions of about 10 billion tonnes by 2050. Yet most IPCC scenarios are between 15 and 30 billion tonnes at 2050, a range that sits well above the plausible upper bound.


      We calculated the implied global per capita emission levels associated with each of the 40 SRES scenarios over the next 50 years and computed the probability of observing each one. Only seven of the 40 SRES scenarios remain within five standard deviations of the current mean through the year 2050. Many depart more than 10 standard deviations above the observed mean; eight lie more than fifty standard deviations above the observed mean.

      Most scenarios are so improbable they should never have been published in the first place. The seven scenarios that we found remotely possible imply a range of total global CO2 emissions from 9.1 to 11.2 Gigatonnes as of 2050, with a mean of about 10.1 Gigatonnes as of 2050. Yet, as I mentioned, the bulk of the SRES scenarios imply emissions of 15 Gigatonnes or more as of 2050.

      I should emphasize that what Mark Strazicich and I did was merely to apply some standard statistical tests for evaluating economic forecasts. It would have been obvious to most economists to do so. In presenting it to our colleagues a typical reaction is surprise that the IPCC didn't check these things themselves. A recently received comment (from one of the few academic economists in North America who has studied the SRES scenarios closely) stated: "the key findings really are important. Essentially, I think they demolish the SRES exercise—something that I think was overdue."

      The fact that the SRES document was used for the Third Assessment Report without discovering these (and other) problems illustrates my first concern about the lack of serious economics capability in the IPCC milieu.

    ***

  • Radical Environmentalism Revealed: Ending Sovereignty and Private Property

    04/16/2007 9:30:26 AM PDT · 36 of 45
    ancient_geezer to rbg81

    Global warming is right out of the Clinton playbook. Al Gore and his merry band of global socialists learned well.

    More like straight out of Machiavelli, nothing new. Same centuries ole game, just the labels change.

     

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


     

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

  • Global Warming Becoming A New Source Of Revenue For Gamblers

    04/14/2007 7:10:06 AM PDT · 3 of 18
    ancient_geezer to Dahoser

    A fool and his money are soon parted.

  • Global warning: Scientist who worked on U.N. study says warming issue can no longer be ignored

    04/07/2007 2:02:03 PM PDT · 22 of 78
    ancient_geezer to ricks_place

    Two hundred scientists from around the world helped write the international document, and its summary findings were formally unveiled in Brussels on Friday. The importance of this report, Running said, is that it is the document “we know the politicians and world leaders pay attention to.”

     

    "To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
    --- Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    --- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

    "The data don't matter. We're not basing our recommendations [for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions] upon the data. We're basing them upon the climate models"
    (Chris Folland, UK Meteorological Office)

  • New report turns up the heat on global warming danger

    04/07/2007 11:43:49 AM PDT · 18 of 60
    ancient_geezer to Graybeard58

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken

     

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to to participate."
  • New report turns up the heat on global warming danger

    04/07/2007 11:38:14 AM PDT · 11 of 60
    ancient_geezer to Graybeard58

    "We can fix this," Schneider said.

    To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.
    --- Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    -- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

    "The data don't matter. We're not basing our recommendations [for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions] upon the data. We're basing them upon the climate models"
    (Chris Folland, UK Meteorological Office)

  • (Top) Forecaster Blasts Gore on Global Warming (at National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans)

    04/07/2007 7:42:50 AM PDT · 25 of 48
    ancient_geezer to NormsRevenge

    Kerry Emanuel, an MIT professor who had feuded with Gray over global warming, said Gray has wrongly "dug (his) heels in" even though there is ample evidence that the world is getting hotter.

     

    Ahh the ineffible bait and switch from anthropogenic warming to variation in climate from natural causes:

     

    An Economist's Perspective on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol,
    by
    Ross McKitrick. November 2003
    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/McKitrick.pdf

    The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined "climate change" as follows:

    • "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
      ( http://unfccc.int/index.html )

    The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined it differently ( http://www.ipcc.ch/ ):

    • Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

    This is a very important difference: The IPCC is looking for signs of any change, whereas the policy instruments prescribed by the UNFCCC are not triggered unless it is a particular kind of change: that attributable to human activity. When IPCC officials declare that "climate change" is for real, this is about as informative as announcing that the passage of time is for real. Of course the climate changes: if it didn't Winnipeg would still be under a glacier. But the fact that the last ice age ended doesn't imply that the policy mechanisms of the UNFCCC should kick in. That's the problem with the ambiguity over the term "climate change"-and it seems to trip up a lot of people-accepting the reality of "climate change" does not mean accepting the need for policy interventions. And denying that global warming is a problem requiring costly policy measures is not the same as denying "climate change."

     

    It is interesting and to be noted that Gray, is not the only scientist to object to the "Global Warming" = more hurricanes meme, the circumstances surrounding the introduction of said meme should always be remembered:

     

    http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

    An Open Letter to the Community from
    Chris Landsea


    Dear colleagues,

    After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.

    With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for my decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC process. The IPCC is a group of climate researchers from around the world that every few years summarize how climate is changing and how it may be altered in the future due to manmade global warming. I had served both as an author for the Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclo nes more generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC. For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author---Dr. Kevin Trenberth---to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. As I had in the past, I agreed to assist the IPCC in what I thought was to be an important, and politically-neutral determination of what is happening with our climate.

    Shortly after Dr. Trenberth requested that I draft the Atlantic hurricane section for the AR4's Observations chapter, Dr. Trenberth participated in a press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on the topic "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity" along with other media interviews on the topic. The result of this media interaction was widespread coverage that directly connected the very busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming occurring today. Listening to and reading trans cripts of this press conference and media interviews, it is apparent that Dr. Trenberth was being accurately quoted and summarized in such statements and was not being misrepresented in the media. These media sessions have potential to result in a widespread perception that global warming has made recent hurricane activity much more severe.

    I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record.

    Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon hurricane will likely be quite small. The latest results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Knutson and Tuleya, Journal of Climate, 2004) suggest that by around 2080, hurricanes may have winds and rainfall about 5% more intense than today. It has been proposed that even this tiny change may be an exaggeration as to what may happen by the end of the 21st Century (Michaels, Knappenberger, and Landsea, Journal of Climate, 2005, submitted).

    It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth's role as the IPCC's Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make pronouncements far outside current sc ientific understandings that this will harm the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our role in public policy.

    My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues to how he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns. I did caution Dr. Trenberth before the media event and provided him a summary of the current understanding within the hurricane research community. I was disappointed when the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I brought up the misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the authority of the IPCC. Specifically, the IPCC leadership said that Dr. Trenberth was speaking as an individual even though he was introduced in the press conference as an IPCC lead auth or; I was told that that the media was exaggerating or misrepresenting his words, even though the audio from the press conference and interview tells a different story (available on the web directly); and that Dr. Trenberth was accurately reflecting conclusions from the TAR, even though it is quite clear that the TAR stated that there was no connection between global warming and hurricane activity. The IPCC leadership saw nothing to be concerned with in Dr. Trenberth's unfounded pronouncements to the media, despite his supposedly impartial important role that he must undertake as a Lead Author on the upcoming AR4.

    It is certainly true that "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights", as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership suggested. Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress in climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, whic h is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR. This becomes problematic when I am then asked to provide the draft about observed hurricane activity variations for the AR4 with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as the Lead Author for this chapter. Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements, the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial extreme events in our climate system has been subverted and compromised, its neutrality lost. While no one can "tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am I suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, neutral point of view. When scientists hold press conferences and speak with the media, much care is needed not to reflect poorly upon the IPCC. It is of more than passing interest to note that Dr. Trenberth, while eager to share his views on global warming and hurricanes with the media, declined to do so at the Cl imate Variability and Change Conference in January where he made several presentations. Perhaps he was concerned that such speculation---though worthy in his mind of public pronouncements---would not stand up to the scrutiny of fellow climate scientists.

    I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth's actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4.

    Sincerely,

    Chris Landsea

    17 January 2005

  • The Kyoto Conspiracy (Gore, Enron, Carbon Trading, Global Warming)

    04/06/2007 12:37:58 PM PDT · 15 of 44
    ancient_geezer to Shermy

    "One of Enron’s major consultants in that study was NASA scientist James Hansen, who started the whole global warming mess in 1988 with his bombastic congressional testimony."

    You mean this James Hansen?

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

  • Climate report: Poor will suffer most

    04/06/2007 12:22:32 PM PDT · 36 of 39
    ancient_geezer to Extremely Extreme Extremist

     

    Without action to curb carbon emissions, man's livable habitat will shrink starkly, said Stephen Schneider, a Stanford scientist who was one of the authors. "Don't be poor in a hot country, don't live in hurricane alley, watch out about being on the coasts or in the Arctic, and it's a bad idea to be on high mountains with glaciers melting."

    "We can fix this," by investing a small part of the world's economic growth rate, said Schneider. "It's trillions of dollars, but it's a very trivial thing."

     

    "To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
    --- Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

  • Climate report: Poor will suffer most

    04/06/2007 12:15:16 PM PDT · 35 of 39
    ancient_geezer to Extremely Extreme Extremist

    "This is a glimpse into an apocalyptic future," the Greenpeace environmental group said of the final report.

    Most religions are.

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to to participate."
  • With warming, yet again, not everyone is equal (more socialism will address ills of climate change)

    04/06/2007 11:34:46 AM PDT · 6 of 15
    ancient_geezer to dead

    The race is on to develop a viable climate change policy. The most disadvantaged Australians should not be left behind.

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to to participate."

     


     

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    -- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

    "To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
    --Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

  • Global warming will 'hit poorest hardest', says IPCC

    04/06/2007 9:05:43 AM PDT · 20 of 26
    ancient_geezer to KC Burke

    World climate experts have issued their bleakest forecasts yet on the effects of climate change, predicting that it will inflict damage on every continent but hit the world's poor disproportionately hard.

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to to participate.

     


     

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    -- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

    "To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
    --Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

  • Cool heads missing in the pressure cooker (green fundamentalism)

    04/06/2007 7:49:29 AM PDT · 14 of 14
    ancient_geezer to Cincinatus' Wife

    To save the world, you’ve got to start early

     

    "No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits…. climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world."
    -- Christine Stewart, Canadian Environment Minister, Calgary Herald, December 14, 1998

    "The answer to global warming is in the abolition of private property and production for human need. A socialist world would place an enormous priority on alternative energy sources. This is what ecologically-minded socialists have been exploring for quite some time now."
    -- Louis Proyect, Columbia University

     

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”

    • “Besides what has been said, people are fickle by nature; and it is a simple to convince them of something but difficult to hold them in that conviction; and, therefore, affairs should be managed in such a way that when they no longer believe, they can be made to believe by force.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to participate.

    To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."
    --Steven Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    -- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

    "Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

  • Greenhouse gas punchline

    04/03/2007 8:18:56 AM PDT · 56 of 56
    ancient_geezer to ChildOfThe60s; Ditto

    We should be also beating the drum more loudly on the facts of their real motivations.

     

     

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

     

     

    Anyone who wonders what the UN/IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming hype is actually about need only look no further than Europe to note the real agenda behind the AGW push, and it ain't science:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/04/news/climate.php

    France and 45 other countries call for world environmental monitor
    International Herald Tribune: Europe
    The Associated Press Published: February 4, 2007

    • PARIS: Forty-five nations joined France in calling for a new environmental body to slow global warming and protect the planet, a body that potentially could have policing powers to punish violators.
    • "It is our responsibility," Chirac said. "The future of humanity demands it."
    • "Without naming the United States, the producer of about one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, Chirac expressed frustration that "some large, rich countries still must be convinced" and were "refusing to accept the consequences of their acts."
    • "So far, it is mostly European nations that have agreed to pursue plans for the new organization and hold their first meeting in Morocco this spring."
    • "We are at a tipping point," Gore said to the conference by videophone. "We must act, and act swiftly." He added: "Such action requires international cooperation."
    • "It is time now to hear from the world's policy makers," Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, said Friday. "The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over."
    • "The United Nations also is considering a summit meeting of world leaders to tackle global warming, and de Boer said he would expect the United States to send high-ranking officials to
  • Greenhouse gas punchline

    04/03/2007 6:08:28 AM PDT · 53 of 56
    ancient_geezer to Dad was my hero

    A four year obsession?

    You would think he could do a job given four years to research for a nit to pick, and then get it wrong for not realizing that a molecule of water vapor has a very short lifetime in the atmosphere.

    Water vapor has a hard limit set by temperature of the atmosphere at which it precipitates out to form clouds and rain and is removed.

  • Greenhouse gas punchline

    04/03/2007 5:26:42 AM PDT · 50 of 56
    ancient_geezer to veidtdan

    Let me guess, you just signed up today, just to make one post to a 4 year old comment of mine.

    I’m flattered. LOL.

  • Greenhouse gas punchline

    04/03/2007 5:06:01 AM PDT · 49 of 56
    ancient_geezer to veidtdan

    The numbers are based on the prevalence of each component as it is found in the atmosphere.

  • Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

    03/31/2007 9:09:17 AM PDT · 26 of 41
    ancient_geezer to bricks4all2; JustDoItAlways
    The abstract for the Nature article.
     
    Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years
    Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420?million years

    Nature 446, 530 (2007). doi:10.1038/nature05699

    Authors: Dana L. Royer, Robert A. Berner & Jeffrey Park

    A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change1. A recent synthesis2 suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5 and 6.2 °C (5–95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today1, 6, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events7 and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 °C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.

     

    Looking at the Yale news release for the article [ http://www.yale.edu/opa/newsr/07-03-28-02.all.html ], we find an interesting statement in regards the lack of validation for temperature in the paleo record they used in respect to their simulations of CO2, to come to their conclusions:

    "Led by Dana L. Royer, assistant professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Wesleyan University, who did his graduate work in geology at Yale, the collaboration simulated 10,000 variations in the carbon-cycle processes such as the sensitivity of plant growth to extra CO2 in the atmosphere. They evaluated these variations for a range of atmospheric warming conditions, using the agreement with the geologic data to determine the most likely warming scenarios. The model-estimated atmospheric CO2 variations were tested against data from ancient rocks.

    Other proxy measurements of soil, rock and fossils provided estimates of CO2 over the past 420 million years. Calculation of the climate sensitivity in this way did not require independent estimates of temperature. It incorporated information from times when the Earth was substantially warmer and colder than today, and reflects the sensitivity of the carbon-cycle balance over millions of years."

     

    Seems they only took empirical measures of CO2 proxies with respect to geological age to compare against their simulations of what CO2 ought to be according to their implicit assumptions of with no validation of actual magnitude of temperature variation from the geological record.

    As can be observed from the results represented in #22 above, raw climate sensitivity based on temperature ranges throughout the paleo-record do not correlate well at all with CO2 variation.

    Per the statement from the abstact "but some evidence is inconsistent with this range1, 2, 3, 4, 5." "some evidence is inconsistent" could easily be seen as a prime candidate for understatement of the decade.

  • Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

    03/31/2007 8:08:33 AM PDT · 25 of 41
    ancient_geezer to JustDoItAlways

    Looking at change in CO2 in relation to average global temperature from the graphic in #22, one wonders what definition of the term "consistant with" takes in the Berner dictionary.

  • Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

    03/30/2007 4:55:01 PM PDT · 22 of 41
    ancient_geezer to Smedley

    New calculations show that sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has been consistent for the last 420 million years, according to an article in Nature by geologists at Yale and Wesleyan Universities.

    ***

    This study used 500 data points in the geological records as "proxy data" and evaluated them in the context of the CO2 cycling models of co-author Robert Berner, professor emeritus of geology and geophysics at Yale who pioneered models of the balance of CO2 in the Earth and Earth's atmosphere.

    "Proxy data are indirect measurements of CO2 - they are a measure of the effects of CO2," explained co-author Jeffrey Park, professor of geology and geophysics at Yale who created the computer simulations for the project. "While we cannot actually measure the CO2 that was in the atmosphere millions of years ago, we can measure the geologic record of its presence. For example, measurement of carbon isotopes in ancient ocean-plankton material reflects atmospheric CO2 concentrations."

    Hmmm, wonder which 500 points in 450 million years they chose to use:

     

    Global Surface Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time 

    Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

    Temperature after C.R. Scotese
    CO2 after R.A. Berner, 1994

    •     There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 900 ppm or about 2.5 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Ordovician Period, exceeding 6000 ppm -- more than 16 times higher than today.
    •     The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today.

      To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age, with CO2 concentrations nearly 15 times higher than today-- 5500 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.
  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/30/2007 11:17:53 AM PDT · 58 of 59
    ancient_geezer to rhema

    POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE IN A NUTSHELL:
    (Lessons of history)

     

    “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
    -- H. L. Mencken

    • “A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do.”

    • “For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.”

    • “Therefore a wise prince ought to adopt such a course that his citizens will always in every sort and kind of circumstance have need of the state and of him, and then he will always find them faithful.”
      -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    -- H. L. Mencken


    “The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.”
    -- John Philpot Curran

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
    -- Edmund Burke

    The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
    -- Plato

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/30/2007 9:32:57 AM PDT · 57 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator; steveab

    The IR absorption properties of CO2 are well-known.

    As are those of water vapor, which overlaps and limits the efficacy of CO2 to act as an IR absorber/emitter to substantially less capacity for warming the surface via downward directed IR flux. The abundance of water vapor in the atmosphere is 10 times that of CO2 and as well as being more efficient IR absorber/emitter. Each water vapor molecule in the troposphere absorbs IR radiation through multiple modes across the atmosphere's IR absorption spectrum from the Near IR into the far micro wave, limiting IR flux available to other IR active GHG molecules:

     

    IR absorption overlap between Water Vapor and Carbon dioxide
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ArbitersOfEnergy/
    Comparing Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor absorption specta.

     

    thus severely limiting the capacity of CO2 to act as a greenhouse gas in respect to warming the surface where we peons live.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

    "Carbon dioxide adds 12 percent to radiation trapping, which is less than the contribution from either water vapor or clouds. By itself, however, carbon dioxide is capable of trapping three times as much radiation as it actually does in the Earth's atmosphere. Freidenreich and colleagues[106] have reported the overlap of carbon dioxide and water absorption bands in the infrared region. Given the present composition of the atmosphere, the contribution to the total heating rate in the troposphere is around 5 percent from carbon dioxide and around 95 percent from water vapor."

    [106] S.M. Freidenreich and V. Ramaswamy, “Solar Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide, Overlap with Water, and a Parameterization for General Circulation Models,” Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (1993):7255-7264.

    Kiehl, J. T. and V. Ramanathan, 1982: Radiative Heating Due to Increased CO2: The Role of H2O Continuum Absorption in the 12-18 mm Region . J. Atmos. Sci., 39: 2923-2926.

    Introduction:

    Within the 12-18mm region, both H2O and CO2 absorb and emit radiation giving rise to the so-called "overlap." This study examines the role of this H2O-CO2 overlap in the CO2-climate proble. The H2O absorpotion, within the 12-18mm region, that has been traditionally included in climate models (Manabe and Wetherald, 1980; Ramanathan, 1981) is the line absorption due to the pure rotational band of H2O. In addition to the pure rotaional band, there is very strong "continuum" absorption by H2O in the 12-18 um region (Roberts et al., 1976). The few climate model studies which include the effect of this continuum (e.g., Wang et al., 1976) have not examined its rl in the increased CO2 radiative effects. In order to isolate the overlap effects of various H2O radiation processes in the 12-18mm region, we comput the radiative heating of the surface/troposphere system due to double CO2 with and without the H2O overlap effects.

    *** SNIP ***

    [p. 3] We consider three cases in which CO2 is doubled and the changes in longwave fluxes are computed for no overlap between water vapor and CO2. This is achieved by setting the transmissivity of H2O in the 12-18mm region to be equal to 1. In the second case, the H2O overlap due to the rotaional band is included. Finally we include the H2O continuum and calculate the flux changes using both continuum and line transmissivity (for the pure rotation band) described in the previous section. These cases illustrate the most important aspects of the water vapor overlap.

    *** SNIP ***

     

    Table 1. The effect of CO2 increase on the hemispherically
    averaged net radiative heating (wm-2). DFTN is the change
    in the net outgoing longwave flux (at the tropopause) due to
    doubling of CO2; negative values of this quantity denote
    heating of the joint surface/troposphere system. DF¯s is the
    is the change in the downward longwave flux at the surface.

    Case Comments -DFTN DF¯s
    1 Without H2O absorption in
    12-18 mm region
    4.69 3.65
    2 H2O line absorption 4.18 1.56
    3 Line plus continuum absorption 3.99 0.55

     

    The work of Jack Barret provides the results of HITRAN line-by-line integration of the significance of water vapor as a green house gas in comparison to CO2, CH4 & N2O, in their respective concentrations in the atmosphere near the surface clearly supporting the above statements:

    Energy & Environment, volume 16 No. 6 2005
    "Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere"
    by Jack Barrett, PhD (Physical chemistry, Imperial College, London)

    The infrared (IR) spectra of the four main GH gases over a 100 metre path length are presented in Figure 6, their concentrations being those that pertain to the atmosphere at sea-level, and in the case of water that which amounts to 45% humidity.

    *** SNIP ***

    Table 1: Contributions to the absorption of the Earth's radiance
    by the first 100 meters of the atmosphere

    GHG % Absorption Absorption relative
    To water vapor = 1
    Water Vapor 68.2 1.000
    CO2 (285 ppmv) 17.0 0.249
    CO2 (570 ppmv) 19.0 0.271
    CH4 1.2 0.180
    N2O 0.5 0.007
    Total [water, CO2, CH4, N20] 86.9  
    Combination with 285 ppmv CO2 72.9 1.069
    Combination with 570 ppmv CO2 73.4 1.076

    Some idea of the relative contributions to global warming by the GHGs at the Earth’s surface may be calculated from the spectral data. Percentage absorption values are useful; they are calculated as %A = 100 – %T (T = transmission). The values for CO2 in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial era of 285 ppmv and double that value, so crucial to the IPCC arguments, are given in Table 1, together with the contributions from water vapour, N2O and methane.

    The absorption values for the pre-industrial atmosphere add up to 86.9%, significantly lower than the combined value of 72.9%. This occurs because there is considerable overlap between the spectral bands of water vapour and those of the other GHGs. If the concentration of CO2 were to be doubled in the absence of the other GHGs the increase in absorption would be 1.5%. In the presence of the other GHGs the same doubling of concentration achieves an increase in absorption of only 0.5%, only one third of its effect if it were the only GHG present. Whether this overlap effect is properly built into models of the atmosphere gives rise to some scepticism.

    The GHGs absorb 72.9% of the available radiance, leaving 27.1% that is transmitted of which an amount equivalent to 22.5% of the total passes through the window and the other parts of the spectral range transmit only 4.6%. For the doubled CO2 case this small percentage decreases slightly to 4.1%. These small percentage transmissions are reduced by 72.9% and 73.4% respectively by the second layer of 100 m of the atmosphere so that only ~1% in both cases is transmitted to the region higher than 200 m.

     

    As is readily determined from Dr. Barrett's results, even with doubled CO2 concentration, water vapor constitutes more than 100*1/1.076 = 92% of the total radiative greenhouse effect in just the first 100meter column of air near the surface.

    That's >92% not counting the additional radiative capacity in the troposphere above that level nor counting IR absorption of H2O in its particulate form as rain and ice content of clouds which contribute additionally to the atmospheric feedback processes discussed above.

    The net of effect of water vapor and clouds through the hydrological cycle is to act as a cooling factor in respect to the surface of the planet transfer heat upward into the mid levels of the atmosphere where it is readily radiated back into space:

     

    In the words of Dr. Richard Lindzen MIT [contributor to IPCC second assessment, and a lead author in IPCC Working Group 1] in regard to the important role of water vapor in transport of surface heat to the upper atmosphere and subsequent re-emission in IR bands:

    "If all CO2 were removed from the atmosphere, water vapor and clouds would still provide almost all of the present greenhouse effect."
    Research & Exploration Vol 9, 191-200, 1993.

    "The surface of the earth does not cool primarily by infrared radiation. It cools mainly through evaporation.7 Most of the evaporated moisture ends up in convective clouds (clouds with strong vertical currents carrying the air and its contents upward, as opposed to layered clouds, which form and stay at a particular level) where the moisture condenses into rain. Just as evaporation cools, the condensation of watervapor heats, and the atmosphere realizes most of this heat at altitudes >5km. It is at these heights that the atmosphere must balance the heat deposited by convection from the surface through cooling by thermal radiation. It is worth noting that, in the absence of convection, pure geenhouse warming would lead to a globally averaged surface temperature of 72oC given current conditions (Moller and Manabe 1961). Our current average temperature, 15oC, is actually much closer to the black body temperature temperature (-18oC), than to the pure greenhouse result.8 The relative ineffectiveness of the greenhouse effect is due to convection which carries heat past the bulk of watervapor (which has a characteristic scale height of about 2km), and to large-scale meridional heat transport which carries heat from the moist tropics to the less moist higher latitudes. Because of this transport, it is primarily the distribution of infared absorbers above 5km (rather than below 5km) that is important for containing the heat carried away from the earth's surface (Lindzen et al. 1982)."

    *** SNIP ***

    "In the meantime greenhouse effect is not nearly as straight forward as is commonly stated."
    --- Richard Lindzen (1990) Some coolness concerning global warming. Bulletin, American Metorolological Society, 71, 288-299.

    "Even if all other greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane) were to disappear, we would still be left with over 98 percent of the current greenhouse effect." Cato Review, Spring issue, 87-98, 1992;

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/29/2007 9:10:34 PM PDT · 54 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    "The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
    -John Philpot Curran

    "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."
    --Edmund Burke

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/29/2007 9:35:37 AM PDT · 51 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator
    Interesting that the eco-politicians don't present AGW that way.

    By what I see, Anthopogenic Global Warming is being sold to the hilt pulling as many lemmings they can over their cliff.

    The politics of crisis, ultimately is about the perceptions fed to the public, not reality.

    For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are.
    -- Nicolo Machiavelli

    "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
    -- H. L. Mencken

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/29/2007 9:20:29 AM PDT · 48 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    If the flood waters are rising in the river by your house, that it isn't the right time to insulate the attic.

    Seeing as the flood waters aren't rising and infact the flood plain is well below norms, it is hardly the time to be yelling flood and creating a panic and rush for the exits over little more than the nomal light spring rain bringing with it that which is necessary to prosperity and life.

    Neglecting the attic with an inevitable and recurrent winter obviously on the horizon, one should not be be wasting resources on low priorities and the frivolous.

    Good day to you.

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 5:14:09 PM PDT · 46 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    People who think that anthropogenic global warming is a hoax*

    Taking a look at the Gore fiasco and like output from those who push the end of the world crisis scenario, I would say those who see anthropogenic global warming as a hoax, are well founded in their beliefs that such is indeed used to create and perpetuate a political hoax of the first magnitude.

    Your desire to hold yourself apart from such folks fails to address that which is of major concern in the direction politics takes takes matters.

    "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
    -- H. L. Mencken

    To neglect the consequence of such crisis management scenes, plays into the hands of those who use science as a cover for political agenda. Whether such neglect is due to indifference, ingnorance or malfeasance is of little import, the resultant damage to national sovereignty, and individual liberty will be the the same.

     

    "We still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping at the spoil of the multitude. . . . It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without a tribute."
    -- Thomas Paine

    "The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
    -John Philpot Curran

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 12:37:59 PM PDT · 35 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    Astonishing. Criticism of a climate scientist who makes a better estimate after 13 years of research (and probably by using much better computers, better models, better data) -- and also astonishing that said criticism comes from Patrick Michaels. "Astonishing" may not capture it. Astounding -- flabbergasted -- completely confounded that this would come from Patrick Michaels.

    Any so-called "scientist" who chooses to politic, should expect and is indeed deserving of incoming flak for his pronouncements in public forum.

    The politician in the scientist's garb is still a politician however you may wish to dress him up to appear otherwise.

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 12:16:46 PM PDT · 34 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    However, one must also recognize that in recent history, the amazing pace of technology has enabled research that was almost unthinkable 20 years ago, and at the edge-of-the-envelope 10 years ago. This applies to research in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, not just climate.

    Indeed technology has grown immensely, all the more reason to apply it to empirical test of model hypothesis before committing the political mistakes of regulation and all that such entails as regards the political and economic health of this nation.

    To grant the political power that goes with the Global Warming activist's agendas is in nowise a move that should be allowed to be logrolled through the political process as is happening today.

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 12:09:42 PM PDT · 33 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    I try as much as possible not to discuss politics -- and I'm trying harder now compared to earlier years.

    You are aware, are you not, this happens to be a political website.

    The issues in Global Warming went far beyond science the day it was picked up by the UN/UNEP/IPCC folks and the green environmental movement.

    I think that the majority of climate scientists studying "climate change" have the "agenda" of trying to understand it better in order to understand the driving mechanisms and to make better assessments of the course of climate change in the future.

    Far too late, the genie was let out of that bottle long ago. Today the political ramifications and impact with regards the growth of power in internation and national politics is the the primary and ultimate concern. That affects us much more, and in a more immediate fashion than any concern over thermodynmics of climate.

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 10:32:57 AM PDT · 26 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    Outdated, decade-or-more old quotes should be examined for relevance in light of evolving knowledge and increased understanding.

    Even more importantly any research paper of less than a decade standing should be under the greatest scrutiny and skepticism for lack of adequate critical review and empirical verification through independant research.

    Political agendas are long lived and changing mainly means rather than goals of their faithful. OTOH, Research papers offing hypothesis, are a dime a dozen, only the best withstanding critical review of a decade or more to become usable theory.

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 10:00:57 AM PDT · 23 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator

    Hansen counsels against extreme scenarios, yet clearly notes the potential for unstoppable ice sheet collapse. That should mean something for thinking persons.

    Hansen is also noted for moving his claimed goal post when his positions become untenable in the eyes of his employers, OTOH he is also known as well, for his incindiary remarks when pushing his personal views to politicians and the MSM:

    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/04/28/james-hansen-increasingly-insensitive/

    You would think that it would be big news when Hansen—the guy who started all this mess with his incendiary 1988 congressional testimony—lowers his estimate for the sensitivity to two-thirds of the value he used back then.

    After all, he does get a lot of ink. That’s what happened in October, 2004, when he traveled to hotly contested and environmentally sensitive Iowa the weekend before the election, and publicly berated his Boss’ global warming policy. Talk about insensitive!

    Hansen’s most recent figure, just published in Sciencexpress, is that the surface temperature ultimately changes 0.67°C per Watt per square meter (W/m2). In 1988 he said it was a full degree, and in 2001 he lowered it to 0.75.

    The lower the climate sensitivity, the less that the global temperature will rise in the future (given the same amount atmospheric carbon dioxide) and the lower the threat of catastrophic climate change.

     

    Outdated, decade-or-more old quotes should be examined for relevance in light of evolving knowledge and increased understanding.

    You mean the political agenda and goals of Global Warming Alarmists has changed?

    I doubt that very much.

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule."
    -- H. L. Mencken

    "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
    -- H. L. Mencken

     


     

    "No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits…. climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world."
    -- Christine Stewart, Canadian Environment Minister, Calgary Herald, December 14, 1998

    "The answer to global warming is in the abolition of private property and production for human need. A socialist world would place an enormous priority on alternative energy sources. This is what ecologically-minded socialists have been exploring for quite some time now."
    -- Louis Proyect, Columbia University

    "Free Enterprise really means rich people get richer. They have the freedom to exploit and psychologically rape their fellow human beings in the process . . Capitalism is destroying the earth".
    -- Helen Caldicott, Union of Concerned Scientists

    "The trouble with this idea is that planting trees will not lead to the societal changes we want to achieve"
    --(Kyoto Delegate, 05 December 1997)

    "A global climate treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect"
    (Richard Benedict, US Conservation Foundation)

    "What we've got to do in energy conservation is try to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, to have approached global warming as if it is real means energy conservation, so we will be doing the right thing anyway in terms of economic policy and environmental policy."
    -- Timothy Wirth, former U.S. Senator (D-Colorado)

  • [Walter Williams] Global warming heresy

    03/28/2007 8:31:25 AM PDT · 18 of 59
    ancient_geezer to cogitator; rhema

    "[W]e need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
    -- Steve Schneider, Quoted in Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989; and American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.

    "[E]mphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration."
    -- James Hansen, stated in presentation to Council on Environmental Quality, June 12, 2003

    "A global climate treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect"
    -- Richard Benedict, US Conservation Foundation

    "The data don't matter. We're not basing our recommendations [for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions] upon the data. We're basing them upon the climate models"
    -- Chris Folland, UK Meteorological Office

    "The trouble with this idea is that planting trees will not lead to the societal changes we want to achieve"
    -- Kyoto Delegate, 05 December 1997

    "We've got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing"
    -- Tim Wirth 1990, former US Senator) as quoted in NCPA Brief 213; September 6, 1996

    "Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."
    -- Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, commenting on reports that Greenland's glaciers are melting. Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001

     


     

    "Surface temperatures have increased 1 to 1.5F during the last 130 years. Most of that increase occurred prior to 1940 and prior to the larger increase in CO2. The National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests that 75 percent of any increase [in global temperature over the last century] may be due to natural causes such as solar output, cloud effects and the vertical mixing of ocean waters. It is also noted that the earth warmed to a higher degree before the industrial revolution than after. "
    -- John Paul Pitts, Midland Reporter-Telegram, Oct. 9, 1997

  • Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

    03/24/2007 8:42:43 PM PDT · 176 of 181
    ancient_geezer to palmer; AFPhys

    My computations pointed out the opposite, that 0.2% of increased irradiance is NOT responsible for any serious amount of temperature change.

    You are correct, in fact Lean series used in in #159 is an adhoc reconstruction having it ultimate roots in 10Be isotope abundance and sunspot number taken as proxies for solar activity and arbitrarily scaled to current satellite measures of solar irradiance.

    Actually the measure is more of solar activity in general, and more properly a function of coronal magnetic flux than it is of irradiance or thermal flux.

    One would be better off to use magnetic flux scaling, the genesis of the measure, instead of pretending it is a measure of irradiance, which it is not:

    A Doubling of the Sun's Coronal Magnetic Field during the Last 100 Years
    M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, and M.N. Wild
    NATURE Vol. 399, 3 June 1999. Pages 437-439
    http://wdcc1.stp.rl.ac.uk/wdcc1/papers/nature.html

    Cover:

    The total solar magnetic flux emanating through the coronal source sphere8, Fs , derived from the geomagnetic aa data for 1868-1996 (black line bounding grey shading) and the values from the interplanetary observations for 1964-1996 (blue line). The variation of the annual means of the sunspot number <R> is shown by the area shaded purple. The magnetic flux in the solar corona has risen by 40% since 1964 and by a factor of 2.3 since 1901.

     

    That would lead to less confusion in regards solar activity connections to climate and global surface temperatures, as the solar activity connection is much more than one of merely radiative transfer physics.

  • Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

    03/24/2007 4:22:57 PM PDT · 170 of 181
    ancient_geezer to palmer; AFPhys

    which is about the observed increase.

    Hmm,

    http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/zD2BASICS/B8glbp.anomdevs.jpg

    Interesting overall cloud cover decreased a total of 4% from 1987 - 2000. Looks to be reversing thereafter as we peak out in solar activity.

     

    Overall net global albedo in the same period decreased about 1% with a similar reversal since 2000.

     

    http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/zFD/an9090_ALB_toa.gif

    Where the large positive anomolies in global albedo are due to El ChiChon 1982 and Mt Pinatubo 1991 volcanic eruptions injecting sulfate areosols into the upper atmosphere increasing reflectivity (i.e. albedo).

     

    Temperture in the period:

     

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.E_lrg.gif

    Blue semicircles mark La Ninas, red rectangles mark El Ninos, and green triangles mark large volcanic eruptions.

    The marked volcanic eruptions are Surstey 1963, El ChiChon 1982, and Pinatubo 1992.

     

    A point of fact Anthropogenic Global Warming alarmists tend to overlook is that cloud cover has been decreasing, increasing the solar flux incident at the surface warming the surface more than any effect CO2 can have.

    http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/projects/browse_fc.html

    "The overall slight rise (relative heating) of global total net flux at TOA between the 1980's and 1990's is confirmed in the tropics by the ERBS measurements and exceeds the estimated climate forcing changes (greenhouse gases and aerosols) for this period. The most obvious explanation is the associated changes in cloudiness during this period. The variations of the total net flux at the surface reflect the variations in the upwelling LW flux for the most part."

    for general background articles also see:

    Can Earth take the heat of 'global brightening'?

    Global Brightening Creates Warming Worries